Is NOV a buy according to AI stock analysis?

NOV AI stock analysis does not label NOV Inc. as a simple buy. It rates NOV as a cyclical value-and-recovery watch because the franchise is established, Q2 2026 beat expectations with a record Energy Equipment margin, and free cash flow and shareholder returns are solid, while the depressed TTM earnings, commodity-cycle dependency, Middle East exposure near 15% of revenue, and energy-transition overhang require cycle-timing conviction.

What is the NOV AI stock forecast?

The NOV AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a guaranteed price target. Around the July 31, 2026 close of $19.43, the tested 12 to 24 month framework points to a bearish area near $13 to $17, a base area near $19 to $23, and a bullish area near $24 to $28, depending on oil prices, rig count trends, the Middle East situation, earnings normalization toward $0.85 to $1.31, and the valuation multiple investors assign.

What technical levels matter for NOV?

The technical levels that matter for NOV are support near $18.94 to $19.06 from the post-earnings low, then $18.35 to $18.55 and the 200-day moving average near $18.18, and resistance near $20.13 to $20.76, then the 52-week high near $21.55. A close below $18.18 would weaken the current constructive trend read.

Can AI predict NOV stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize NOV financial data, industry trends, valuation metrics, and scenario assumptions, but oil price movements, Middle East developments, drilling activity shifts, energy policy, and market multiple changes can make any NOV forecast wrong.

How should I use this NOV AI trading strategy?

Use this NOV AI trading strategy as a research framework, not personal advice. Confirm whether NOV holds key support near $18.94 or breaks out above $20.76, monitor the Q3 2026 results expected in late October, oil price trends, and the Middle East situation, define invalidation near $18.18 before entry, and size risk around scenario evidence rather than cycle optimism.

Why did NOV stock fall after its Q2 earnings beat?

NOV beat Q2 expectations on July 28, 2026, but the stock dropped from $19.82 to about $19.06 by July 29, likely reflecting profit taking after a 52% run, conservative third-quarter segment guidance, and caution around the Middle East situation and the roughly $40 million one-time tariff benefit in the margin.

How does NOV compare to other oilfield service stocks?

NOV trades at about 17.3x forward earnings and 1.12x book value, lower than SLB and HAL on forward earnings after its cycle-trough trailing base. Its free cash flow yield near 8.1% and dividend yield near 2.32% are attractive relative to peers, though EPS recovery timing and Middle East exposure determine relative performance.

NOV Inc. research snapshot

NOV AI Stock Analysis

Q: How did NOV perform in Q2 2026?

NOV reported Q2 2026 revenue of $2.13 billion, up 4% sequentially, net income of $112 million or $0.31 per share against $0.16 consensus, adjusted EBITDA of $283 million including a roughly $40 million tariff benefit, and a record 16.4% Energy Equipment EBITDA margin, while repurchasing 3.2 million shares for $63 million.

NOV AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads NOV Inc. as an established oilfield equipment and services business that delivered a strong Q2 2026 earnings beat on July 28, 2026 while still operating through a depressed TTM earnings base. The stock closed at $19.43 on July 31, 2026 with an after-hours print of $19.44 and a market capitalization near $6.93 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $19.43 times 356.48 million shares outstanding. NOV reported Q2 revenue of $2.13 billion, up 4% sequentially and down about 2% year over year, net income of $112 million or $0.31 per share against $0.16 consensus, adjusted EBITDA of $283 million including a roughly $40 million IEEPA tariff benefit, and a record 16.4% Energy Equipment segment EBITDA margin. Management repurchased 3.2 million shares for $63 million in the quarter and has returned over $1 billion since mid-2024. The stock still trades at about 75x trailing earnings because TTM net income of $95 million or $0.26 per share sits near a cycle trough, but the 17.29x forward P/E, the 12.32x P/FCF ratio, the $22.03 average analyst price target across 21 analysts, and a 2.32% dividend yield reflect the market underwriting an earnings recovery that depends on oil prices, drilling activity, and the Middle East situation, which is roughly 15% of revenue.

Current price

$19.43

Market cap

$6.93 billion

AI score

63 / 100

Rating

Established oilfield equipment leader with improving execution, a record Energy Equipment margin, and a forward P/E that still prices in an earnings recovery tied to the cycle

Trend status

Consolidating below the 50-day and 100-day averages after a Q2 earnings beat, with the 200-day average still rising and a 52-week gain of about 52%

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: B-level information richness. NOV is a long-listed U.S. large-cap with dense SEC filings including the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filed July 29, 2026, full earnings call transcripts, 21 sell-side analysts, and third-party financial data, but its cyclical earnings make forward estimates more uncertain than trailing data. The August 3, 2026 full refresh re-fetched and re-validated the $19.43 close, the $6.93 billion market cap, Q2 2026 results, the $8.64 billion TTM revenue, the balance sheet figures of $1.16 billion cash and $2.33 billion total debt as of June 30, 2026, and the analyst consensus, which matched across StockAnalysis.com, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, the Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, and Barchart.
bias Check: The main AI bias risk is treating the depressed trailing P/E of roughly 75x as evidence of overvaluation without adjusting for the cycle; NOV has historically traded on forward rather than trailing earnings. A second risk is anchoring on the 52-week high near $21.55, or overreacting to the July 29 drop even though Q2 beat expectations, which could reflect guidance conservatism, Middle East caution, or profit taking. The reverse checks ask whether a stock up about 52% over 52 weeks and 24% year to date has already priced the recovery, whether the $40 million tariff benefit inflates the reported margin, and whether the 7.28% short interest suggests some investors doubt the pace of the cycle.
ai Confidence: High for revenue, segments, backlog, balance sheet, cash flow, and Q2 2026 results that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR filings, and the Q2 2026 earnings call transcript during this refresh. Medium for normalized earnings power because cycle timing, oil price assumptions, and the pace of Middle East recovery introduce uncertainty.
investment Certainty: Medium-low. NOV is a well-established franchise with a broad installed base, strong free cash flow, and improving execution, but investment certainty is constrained by the commodity cycle, a TTM earnings base of $95 million, the Middle East exposure near 15% of revenue, and the structural energy-transition overhang.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	NOV designs, builds, and sells drilling, well-service, completion, production, and aftermarket equipment, plus digital, composite, and renewable solutions, with TTM revenue near $8.64 billion and a broad installed base across land, offshore, and international markets.	High
Moat	The moat comes from installed base scale, brand recognition, engineering know-how, a certified global service network, aftermarket parts switching costs, and category leadership in subsea flexible pipe, drill pipe, and drill bits, where market share gains have persisted through the downturn.	Medium-high
Management	Chairman, President, and CEO Jose Bayardo and CFO Rodney Reed drove Q2 execution, a record 16.4% Energy Equipment EBITDA margin, and $63 million of repurchases in the quarter, with over $1 billion returned to shareholders since mid-2024 through buybacks and dividends.	Medium-high
Financial trend	Q2 revenue rose 4% sequentially with adjusted EBITDA of $283 million including a $40 million tariff benefit and a record Energy Equipment margin, but TTM net income of only $95 million and revenue down about 1.7% year over year show the base is still near a cycle trough.	High
Valuation	At $19.43, verified math shows about 75.2x trailing EPS, 17.29x forward earnings, 0.80x sales, 1.12x book value, and 12.32x free cash flow, which is reasonable on forward and cash flow metrics but expensive on the depressed trailing base.	Medium-high
Technical trend	NOV is up about 52% over 52 weeks and 24% year to date, and trades above its 20-day ($19.40) and 200-day ($18.18) averages but below the 50-day ($19.71) and 100-day ($19.63), a constructive longer-term uptrend with near-term consolidation.	Medium
Risk level	Risk is elevated because Middle East disruption is roughly 15% of revenue, oil price and drilling activity swings drive the cycle, tariffs affect margins, and the energy transition adds a structural long-term overhang for an equipment cyclicals name.	Medium-high
AI confidence	Descriptive confidence is high for reported financials and market data cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, and the Q2 2026 transcript. Forecasting confidence is lower because the TTM earnings base is too depressed to anchor a reliable forecast without cycle adjustment.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	NOV looks like a cyclical value-and-recovery watch rather than a compounder at current levels. Free cash flow, the buyback, and the dividend provide a floor, but the pace of earnings normalization and Middle East resolution remain uncertain.	Medium-low

NOV AI stock forecast

NOV AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The NOV AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a promised price target. Using the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, a $19.43 stock price, consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS near $0.85 and FY2027 near $1.31, and an average analyst price target of $22.03, the tested range over 12 to 24 months spans a bearish $13 to $17 area, a base $19 to $23 area, and a bullish $24 to $28 area. The wide range reflects the cyclical nature of oilfield equipment earnings and the Middle East situation.

Bullish case

$24 to $28

More likely if the investment cycle broadens toward the high-water-mark analysis management described of roughly $9.8 billion annualized revenue and $1.5 billion EBITDA capacity, Middle East logistics normalize, book-to-bill approaches or exceeds 100%, and the market assigns a mid-to-high-teens multiple to a normalized EPS around $1.40 to $1.50.

Base case

$19 to $23

More likely if FY2026 adjusted EPS lands near the $0.85 consensus and FY2027 near $1.31, drilling activity and oil prices stay supportive, the company keeps returning cash, and the forward multiple stays near 15x to 17x, roughly tracking the $22.03 average analyst price target.

Bearish case

$13 to $17

More likely if oil prices fall sharply, Middle East disruption intensifies (management flagged a $20 million to $25 million EBITDA impact in one scenario, with Middle East at roughly 15% of revenue), book-to-bill stays below 1, or the multiple compresses toward 12x to 13x forward earnings on a slower recovery.

NOV AI technical analysis

NOV AI Technical Analysis

NOV AI technical analysis shows a stock in a longer-term uptrend from its 52-week low of $11.78, trading near $19.43 as of the July 31, 2026 close, up about 52% over 52 weeks and 24% year to date. Price sits above the 20-day and 200-day moving averages but below the 50-day and 100-day, with RSI near 48.8 and weak ADX, which points to consolidation after the Q2 earnings reaction rather than a breakdown.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$19.43	StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close, with a $19.44 after-hours print and a daily range of $18.94 to $19.60.
Near support	$18.94 to $19.06	The post-earnings low of $18.94 printed on July 29 and again as the July 31 low. A hold above this zone keeps the consolidation intact.
Key support	$18.35 to $18.55	The June low near $18.35 from June 24 and the mid-June trading lows form the next support cluster below the recent reaction zone.
Deeper support	$17.79 to $18.18	The 200-day moving average sits near $18.18 on Barchart and StockAnalysis, with the July 6 low near $17.79 below it. This is the main trend-support cluster.
Near resistance	$20.13 to $20.76	The late-July highs before earnings, with $20.76 on July 24 and $20.47 on July 27, cap the first upside attempt.
Key resistance	$21.20 to $21.55	The earnings-day high near $21.20 on July 29 and the 52-week high of $21.55 from June 4 mark the major upside checkpoint. A breakout above this zone would be a constructive signal.
20-day moving average	$19.40	Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $19.40 on July 31, 2026, marginally below price, so the very short-term trend is flat to slightly positive.
50-day moving average	$19.71	The 50-day average near $19.71 is above price. Reclaiming it would improve the short-term trend read after the earnings dip.
200-day moving average	$18.18	The 200-day trend line near $18.18 is below price and has been rising, so the longer-term uptrend is intact as of the data cutoff.
Momentum	RSI near 48.8, ADX near 15.7	14-day RSI was near 48.78 on StockAnalysis and Barchart, and 14-day ADX near 15.7 with the negative directional index near 21.7 above the positive near 16.2, so momentum is neutral to slightly negative after the pullback.
Volume monitor	About 3.56 million average shares	StockAnalysis reported 20-day average volume near 3.56 million shares, with the July 29 earnings reaction printing about 7.76 million shares. Watch for volume confirmation on any break above $21.20.
Volatility	About 3.7% daily range	Barchart reported 14-day average true range near $0.72 or 3.68% of price and 14-day historic volatility near 30.6%, so position sizing should allow for sharp swings around oil price and Middle East headlines.
Invalidation	Close below $18.18	A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $18.18, and then below the July 6 low near $17.79, would weaken the longer-term uptrend and open a deeper correction.

NOV AI trading strategy

NOV AI Trading Strategy Framework

The NOV AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It combines trend-following and mean-reversion approaches with fundamental cycle tracking, because NOV is heavily influenced by oil prices, rig counts, the Middle East situation, and industry capex cycles.

Trend-following setup

Consider NOV if it reclaims the 50-day moving average near $19.71 and then breaks above the $20.13 to $20.76 zone on rising volume, with the 200-day near $18.18 still rising. Confirm with supportive oil prices, stable rig counts, and positive earnings revision momentum.

Treat a close below the 200-day near $18.18 as a caution signal and a close below $17.79 as trend invalidation. Keep position size moderate because Middle East risk and commodity swings can override the technical setup.

Mean-reversion setup

If NOV holds the $18.94 to $19.06 post-earnings support and then the $18.35 to $18.55 zone on no structural news, compare the entry with cash flow trends, backlog data, Q3 guidance, oil price support, and management commentary on cycle positioning.

Do not average down without a defined exit. The mean-reversion thesis fails if oil prices break down, Middle East disruption worsens, or book-to-bill stays below 1 into the second half.

Cycle monitor

Track the Q3 2026 results expected in late October 2026, U.S. rig count trends (Baker Hughes), WTI crude oil price action, NOV book-to-bill and the $4.1 billion backlog, the Middle East situation at roughly 15% of revenue, free cash flow conversion toward 40% to 50% of EBITDA, and the buyback and dividend program.

Keep position size tied to evidence. NOV franchise quality does not remove commodity-cycle risk, customer concentration, tariff exposure, or energy-transition structural risk.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

NOV sells equipment, components, parts, services, and digital solutions that oil and gas companies need to drill wells, complete them, and produce hydrocarbons, plus industrial and renewable energy products. Customers pay because the equipment is certified, field-tested, and supported by a global service network that minimizes drilling downtime.

Moat

The moat comes from installed base scale, brand reputation, engineering expertise, field service density, OEM parts requirements, and customer switching costs for certified downhole tools and critical drilling equipment, with the strongest positions in subsea flexible pipe, drill pipe, drill bits, and offshore production equipment.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if oil prices stay low for an extended period, Middle East disruption cuts the roughly 15% of revenue tied to that region, drilling activity declines structurally, customers consolidate buying power, energy-transition policy reduces long-term hydrocarbon demand, or the company cannot sustain free cash flow discipline through the cycle.

Management

Chairman, President, and CEO Jose Bayardo and CFO Rodney Reed have emphasized operational efficiency, portfolio simplification, and shareholder returns, with over $1 billion returned since mid-2024. Q2 execution delivered a record Energy Equipment EBITDA margin and a $63 million repurchase in the quarter.

Industry trend

NOV operates in the oilfield equipment and services industry, which is tied to global hydrocarbon investment. Near-to-medium-term demand is supported by underinvestment in supply, energy-security concerns, international unconventional growth, and a constructive deepwater outlook, while the energy transition remains a long-term demand overhang.

Valuation and margin of safety

At $19.43, verified math shows about 75.2x trailing EPS but 17.29x forward earnings, 0.80x sales, 1.12x book, and 12.32x free cash flow. The margin of safety depends on earnings normalizing toward the FY2026 consensus of $0.85 and FY2027 of $1.31, with the $22.03 average analyst price target implying modest upside.

Source-backed data

NOV Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
NOV price	$19.43 at the July 31, 2026 close, with a $19.44 after-hours print	StockAnalysis.com real-time quote	August 3, 2026
Market capitalization	$6.93 billion, computed as $19.43 x 356.48 million shares outstanding	StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics	August 3, 2026
Shares outstanding	356.48 million, down about 5.2% year over year	StockAnalysis.com statistics	August 3, 2026
Q2 2026 revenue	$2.13 billion, up 4% sequentially and down about 2% year over year, above $2.08 billion consensus	NOV Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript	July 29, 2026
Q2 2026 profit	Net income of $112 million or $0.31 per diluted share against $0.16 consensus, adjusted EBITDA of $283 million at 13.3% of sales including a roughly $40 million IEEPA tariff benefit, or about $243 million excluding it	NOV Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript	July 29, 2026
Q2 2026 segment results	Energy Equipment revenue of $1.22 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $200 million at a record 16.4% margin; Energy Products and Services revenue of $974 million with adjusted EBITDA of $144 million at 14.8%	NOV Q2 2026 earnings call transcript	July 29, 2026
Orders and backlog	Energy Equipment capital equipment orders of $474 million, up 13% year over year, book-to-bill of 74%, and $4.1 billion backlog at June 30, 2026, with 2026 full-year book-to-bill expected near 90% to 100%	NOV Q2 2026 earnings call transcript	July 29, 2026
Q2 2026 free cash flow	Free cash flow of negative $64 million for the quarter on milestone billing timing and inventory buffers, with 40% to 50% of 2026 EBITDA still guided to convert to free cash flow	NOV Q2 2026 earnings call transcript	July 29, 2026
Shareholder returns	Repurchased 3.2 million shares for $63 million and paid $64 million of dividends in Q2 2026, with over $1 billion returned since mid-2024	NOV Q2 2026 earnings call transcript	July 29, 2026
Revenue (TTM)	$8.64 billion, down about 1.7% year over year	StockAnalysis.com financials	August 3, 2026
Net income (TTM)	$95 million, with TTM EPS of $0.26	StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials	August 3, 2026
Segment revenue (TTM)	Energy Products and Services near $3.83 billion and Energy Equipment near $4.99 billion, with about $181 million of eliminations	StockAnalysis.com financials KPIs	August 3, 2026
Cash and total debt	$1.16 billion of cash and $2.33 billion of total debt as of June 30, 2026, a net debt position of about $1.16 billion or roughly $3.17 per share	StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q	August 3, 2026
Free cash flow (TTM)	Operating cash flow of $916 million, capital expenditures of $354 million, and free cash flow of $562 million at $1.58 per share	StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and statistics	August 3, 2026
Valuation check	75.15x trailing EPS, 17.29x forward PE, 0.80x sales, 1.12x book value, 12.32x free cash flow, PEG 1.66, EV/EBITDA 10.07	StockAnalysis.com statistics	August 3, 2026
Dividend	Annual dividend of $0.45 at a 2.32% yield, with a regular quarterly dividend of $0.09 plus a $0.09 supplemental declared in May 2026 and an ex-dividend date of June 12, 2026	StockAnalysis.com statistics and dividend page, NOV dividend press release	August 3, 2026
Analyst consensus	Buy across 21 analysts with an average price target of $22.03, a low of $17 and a high of $26	StockAnalysis.com forecast	July 31, 2026
Recent analyst updates	TD Cowen raised its target to $26 on July 29, Susquehanna to $24 on July 30, Evercore ISI and RBC held at $22 on July 30, and Barclays lowered its target to $20 on July 31	StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed	July 31, 2026
2026 and 2027 consensus estimates	FY2026 revenue near $8.64 billion with adjusted EPS of $0.85, FY2027 revenue near $9.11 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.31	StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast	July 31, 2026
Short interest	25.94 million shares short, 7.28% of shares outstanding, 5.79 days to cover, down from 30.49 million the prior month	StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling	August 3, 2026
Technical snapshot	20-day moving average near $19.40, 50-day near $19.71, 100-day near $19.63, 200-day near $18.18, 14-day RSI near 48.78, 14-day ADX near 15.7, 14-day historic volatility near 30.6%	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots	August 3, 2026
Price range	52-week range of $11.78 to $21.55, with the high printed on June 4, 2026, and a 52-week gain of about 52% and year-to-date gain of about 24%	StockAnalysis.com quote and price history	August 3, 2026
Leadership	Jose A. Bayardo is Chairman, President, and CEO, and Rodney C. Reed is Senior Vice President and CFO, per the company profile and Q2 2026 earnings call	StockAnalysis.com company profile and Q2 2026 transcript	July 31, 2026
Q3 2026 earnings schedule	Expected in late October 2026, after this August 3, 2026 data cutoff, so Q3 results are not included in this analysis	NOV Q2 2026 earnings conference call announcement and transcript	August 3, 2026

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This NOV AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, transcripts, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, oil price moves, Middle East developments, tariff changes, or market moves. Q3 2026 results were expected in late October 2026, after the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, and were not included.