Annaly Capital Management, Inc. research snapshot
NLY AI stock analysis currently reads Annaly Capital Management as a large mortgage REIT whose return is driven by the spread between mortgage-asset yields, funding costs, hedges, servicing income, and changes in book value. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the July 31 NYSE close was $22.72 and the verified market capitalization was $17.12 billion. Second-quarter net interest income rose year over year, earnings available for distribution of $0.79 per share covered the $0.75 quarterly common dividend, and book value per common share rose to $20.15, but the investment case remains exposed to 7.4:1 GAAP leverage, mortgage spreads, prepayments, financing, rate volatility, and ongoing common-equity issuance. The NLY AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a guaranteed target. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$22.72 NYSE close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$17.12 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Large mortgage REIT with agency MBS scale, a higher common dividend, rising distributable earnings, ongoing ATM share issuance, and material interest-rate and book-value sensitivity
Trend status
Price sits just above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages inside a roughly $22.00 to $23.50 range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Annaly earns net interest income and servicing income by financing agency mortgage-backed securities, residential credit assets, loans, and mortgage servicing rights. The business is liquid and scalable but depends on spread management rather than recurring customer pricing power. | High |
| Moat | Scale in agency MBS, financing relationships, hedging infrastructure, securitization capability, and mortgage servicing expertise can improve execution. These advantages do not eliminate the commodity-like nature of mortgage spreads or rate-driven marks. | Medium |
| Management | Management should be judged by risk-adjusted returns on equity, book-value protection, hedge discipline, financing access, capital issuance, dividend coverage, and capital allocation across agency, credit, and servicing assets. It raised the common dividend to $0.75 while continuing ATM issuance. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net interest income was $488.2 million, up from $273.2 million a year earlier. Net income available to common stockholders was $781.6 million with EPS of $1.06, while earnings available for distribution were $0.79 per average common share against the $0.75 quarterly dividend. | High |
| Valuation | At $22.72, financial_rigor.py calculates about 5.74x trailing GAAP EPS, 1.13x June 2026 book value per share, and a 13.20% yield using the $3.00 annualized dividend. Mortgage REIT valuation must also consider that trailing EPS includes marks while book value of $20.15 can change. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $22.72 sat above the 50-day moving average of $22.27 and the 200-day moving average of $22.33, between about $22.00 to $22.15 support and $23.20 to $23.50 resistance in the available price history. This is a range framework, not evidence of a confirmed directional trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because GAAP leverage was 7.4:1 at June 30, 2026, economic leverage was 5.6:1, and outcomes depend on mortgage spreads, prepayments, short-term funding, hedge effectiveness, liquidity, book value, and continued common-share issuance. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because primary filings and market references are available. Confidence in a return outcome is lower because mortgage REITs can reprice abruptly when rates, volatility, or spreads change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | NLY is better treated as a rate-sensitive income and book-value research candidate than as a predictable dividend compounder. A margin of safety requires stress-testing the distribution and book value, not simply annualizing the current yield. | Medium-low |
NLY AI stock forecast
The NLY AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction. A three-year auditable mechanical model using the July 31, 2026 price of $22.72, trailing GAAP EPS of $3.96, and different growth and multiple assumptions produces about $31.20 in a bullish case, $24.50 in a base case, and $14.80 in a bearish case before dividends. These are sensitivity cases, not price targets, because GAAP EPS includes marks, while book value, earnings available for distribution, rates, mortgage spreads, and leverage can change.
$28 to $33 before dividends
More likely if mortgage spreads stay tight or tighten, funding costs ease relative to asset yields, hedges protect book value, prepayments stay manageable, earnings available for distribution keeps covering the dividend, ATM dilution slows, and investors accept a higher premium to book value.
$22 to $27 before dividends
More likely if earnings available for distribution stays near the current dividend, book value changes modestly, financing remains available, ATM issuance continues at a moderate pace, and the market continues to value NLY near book value with a high required yield.
$13 to $17 before dividends
More likely if rate volatility or mortgage spreads hurt book value, prepayments or funding costs rise, hedge results disappoint, leverage becomes less tolerable, earnings coverage weakens, share issuance accelerates, or the dividend is reduced.
NLY AI technical analysis
NLY AI technical analysis is range-bound as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The latest verified close used here is $22.72 on July 31, 2026. Price history and statistics show support near $22.00 to $22.15 and resistance near $23.20 to $23.50, with the 50-day moving average at $22.27, the 200-day moving average at $22.33, and RSI near 50.86. Momentum and volume readings were derived from the same StockAnalysis price and statistics source set; confirm all indicators on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.72 per common share | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 NYSE close used for this page. |
| Immediate support | $22.00 to $22.15 | July 1 and July 22 lows of $22.11 and $22.03 and a June 12 close of $22.00 mark this zone in the available daily history. |
| Deeper support | $21.20 to $21.40 | Early June lows clustered near $21.07 to $21.40 before a June 8 low of $20.88. These are chart references, not guaranteed levels. |
| Book value reference | $20.15 per common share | June 30, 2026 book value per common share was $20.15. This is a valuation reference, not guaranteed chart support. |
| Near resistance | $23.20 to $23.50 | A July 28 close of $23.20 and July 16 to 17 highs of $23.42 to $23.48 mark this zone in the available daily history. |
| Higher resistance | $24.00 to $24.50 | A move above the referenced resistance would need confirmation from price, volume, book-value commentary, and the rate backdrop. The StockAnalysis analyst target was $24.23. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $22.27, 200-day $22.33 | StockAnalysis reported these moving averages as of August 2, 2026. The close of $22.72 was above both. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.86 | StockAnalysis reported RSI near 50.86, a neutral reading. Use price reaction around $22.00 and $23.50 as confirmation tools rather than standalone signals. |
| Volume | Monitor around earnings and dividend dates | Watch participation around the next earnings report, Treasury moves, mortgage-spread changes, and dividend announcements. Average 20-day volume was about 7.16 million shares. |
| Volatility | Rate and mortgage-spread sensitive | Mortgage REIT volatility can rise when Treasury yields, implied volatility, funding markets, prepayment expectations, or agency MBS spreads move. StockAnalysis reported a five-year beta near 1.23. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $21.20 to $21.40, then book-value deterioration | A break below the referenced support calls for a fresh review of price action and fundamentals, especially book value, leverage, hedge positioning, and dividend coverage. |
NLY AI trading strategy
The NLY AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It connects technical levels with book value, earnings available for distribution, dividend coverage, leverage, funding, hedge exposure, mortgage spreads, prepayments, and the Treasury-rate backdrop.
Watch for NLY to hold above the $22.00 to $22.15 support zone and then clear the $23.20 to $23.50 resistance area with improving volume, stable or rising book-value commentary, dividend coverage, and a rate or spread backdrop that supports mortgage REITs.
A failed breakout or sustained close below $22.00 weakens the setup, especially if book value falls or management reports worse funding, spread, prepayment, or leverage conditions.
If NLY retests the $21.20 to $21.40 support area without a worsening in earnings available for distribution, funding access, hedges, or asset quality, compare price with a conservative view of book value and dividend sustainability.
Do not assume a high yield means value if price weakness follows book-value erosion, a larger discount required by investors, poor hedge performance, rising funding costs, accelerated share issuance, or a reduced distribution outlook.
Track book value per common share, earnings available for distribution, dividend declarations, economic and GAAP leverage, net interest margin, asset yields, funding costs, hedge performance, CPR, agency MBS spreads, liquidity, common-share issuance, and the yield curve.
Position sizing should reflect that NLY is a leveraged mortgage REIT that also issues common shares under its ATM program. Historical dividends and a static AI score are not substitutes for live market data or personal risk limits.
Investment research summary
Annaly finances and manages mortgage-related assets. Shareholders are paid from the difference between asset income, funding and hedge costs, servicing income, operating expenses, and changes in the value of a leveraged balance sheet.
The moat is operational rather than customer-facing: scale in agency MBS, repo funding relationships, risk management, hedging, securitization, and mortgage servicing. It can improve execution, but it does not create permanent pricing power over mortgage spreads.
The thesis fails if mortgage spreads widen, rate volatility damages hedges or book value, funding becomes more expensive or scarce, prepayments change unfavorably, leverage amplifies losses, ATM common-equity issuance dilutes value, or the dividend no longer matches earnings available for distribution.
Management must balance income generation against book-value defense. The key tests are hedge discipline, financing resilience, leverage control, asset allocation, capital issuance and dilution, dividend policy, and whether risk-adjusted returns exceed the cost of capital through a full rate cycle.
Mortgage finance depends on housing-credit formation, the supply and demand for agency MBS, bank and nonbank funding, Federal Reserve policy, and Treasury volatility. The sector benefits from stable financing and investable spreads, but it is not a simple long-term growth story.
At $22.72, the selected inputs imply 1.13x June 2026 book value and a 13.20% annualized dividend yield. Book value per common share was $20.15 at June 30, 2026, so the margin of safety should be judged against a forward, stressed estimate of book value and dividend coverage rather than a single historical multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NLY quote reference | $22.72 NYSE close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis NLY statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $17.12 billion calculated from $22.72 x 753.71 million shares, matching the reported $17.12 billion with a 0.03% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis NLY statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 753.71 million shares outstanding per StockAnalysis; 750.57 million common shares per the June 30, 2026 balance sheet | StockAnalysis NLY statistics and Annaly Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1,869.331 million net income available to common stockholders, cross-validated between Annaly Form 10-K and StockAnalysis with a 0.01% variance | Annaly 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 EPS and dividends | FY2025 GAAP EPS of $2.92, EAD of $2.92 per average common share, and $2.80 of common dividends declared per share; December 2025 book value per common share was $20.21 | Annaly 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $488.193 million net interest income, $781.637 million net income available to common stockholders, $1.06 GAAP EPS per average common share, and $0.79 earnings available for distribution per average common share | Annaly Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| June 2026 balance sheet | $2.912 billion cash and equivalents, $143.741 billion total assets, $16.925 billion stockholders equity, $20.15 book value per common share, 5.6:1 economic leverage, and 7.4:1 GAAP leverage | Annaly Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation inputs | $0.75 quarterly common dividend raised from $0.70, $3.00 annualized; trailing EPS $3.96 and June 2026 book value per share $20.15. financial_rigor.py calculated 5.74x PE, 1.13x PB, and 13.20% yield. | Annaly Q2 2026 results, StockAnalysis, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage reference | Average price target of $24.23 with a Buy consensus across 13 analysts, as reported by StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis NLY statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical reference | Support near $22.00 to $22.15 and resistance near $23.20 to $23.50 from daily price history, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $22.27 and $22.33 and RSI near 50.86 | StockAnalysis NLY price history and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This NLY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if interest rates, mortgage spreads, prepayments, funding markets, book value, leverage, common-share issuance, dividend policy, market conditions, or company disclosures change.
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