Annaly Capital Management, Inc. research snapshot
NLY AI stock analysis currently reads Annaly Capital Management as a large mortgage REIT whose return is driven by the spread between mortgage-asset yields, funding costs, hedges, servicing income, and changes in book value. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the July 9 NYSE close was $22.74 and the verified market capitalization was $16.66 billion. First-quarter net interest income rose year over year and earnings available for distribution covered the $0.70 quarterly common dividend, but the investment case remains exposed to 7.3:1 GAAP leverage, mortgage spreads, prepayments, financing, and rate volatility. The NLY AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a guaranteed target. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$22.74 NYSE close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$16.66 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Large mortgage REIT with agency MBS scale, a high distribution yield, material leverage, and substantial interest-rate and book-value sensitivity
Trend status
Range-bound between nearby support and resistance, with earnings and rate moves likely to drive the next signal
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Annaly earns net interest income and servicing income by financing agency mortgage-backed securities, residential credit assets, loans, and mortgage servicing rights. The business is liquid and scalable but depends on spread management rather than recurring customer pricing power. | High |
| Moat | Scale in agency MBS, financing relationships, hedging infrastructure, securitization capability, and mortgage servicing expertise can improve execution. These advantages do not eliminate the commodity-like nature of mortgage spreads or rate-driven marks. | Medium |
| Management | Management should be judged by risk-adjusted returns on equity, book-value protection, hedge discipline, financing access, capital issuance, dividend coverage, and capital allocation across agency, credit, and servicing assets. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net interest income was $452.7 million, up from $220.0 million a year earlier. Earnings available for distribution were $0.76 per average common share against a $0.70 quarterly dividend, while GAAP net income per average common share was $0.33. | High |
| Valuation | At $22.74, financial_rigor.py calculates about 7.79x FY2025 EPS, 1.13x December 2025 book value per share, and a 12.31% yield using the $2.80 annualized dividend. Mortgage REIT valuation must also consider the March 2026 book value of $19.82 and the chance that it changes. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 9 close sat between $21.24 support and $23.52 resistance in the available technical snapshot. This is a range framework, not evidence of a confirmed directional trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because GAAP leverage was 7.3:1 at March 31, 2026 and outcomes depend on mortgage spreads, prepayments, short-term funding, hedge effectiveness, liquidity, book value, and common-share issuance. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because primary filings and market references are available. Confidence in a return outcome is lower because mortgage REITs can reprice abruptly when rates, volatility, or spreads change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | NLY is better treated as a rate-sensitive income and book-value research candidate than as a predictable dividend compounder. A margin of safety requires stress-testing the distribution and book value, not simply annualizing the current yield. | Medium-low |
NLY AI stock forecast
The NLY AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction. A three-year auditable mechanical model using the July 9, 2026 price of $22.74, FY2025 EPS of $2.92, and different EPS and multiple assumptions produces about $29.60 in a bullish case, $21.90 in a base case, and $15.50 in a bearish case before dividends. These are sensitivity cases, not price targets, because book value, earnings available for distribution, rates, mortgage spreads, and leverage can change.
$27 to $31 before dividends
More likely if mortgage spreads tighten or remain supportive, funding costs ease relative to asset yields, hedges protect book value, prepayments stay manageable, earnings available for distribution cover the dividend, and investors accept a premium to book value.
$20 to $23 before dividends
More likely if earnings available for distribution stays near the current dividend, book value changes modestly, financing remains available, and the market continues to value NLY near book value with a high required yield.
$14 to $17 before dividends
More likely if rate volatility or mortgage spreads hurt book value, prepayments or funding costs rise, hedge results disappoint, leverage becomes less tolerable, earnings coverage weakens, or the dividend is reduced.
NLY AI technical analysis
NLY AI technical analysis is range-bound as of the July 11, 2026 cutoff. The latest verified close used here is $22.74 on July 9. A July 2 technical reference identified support at $21.24 and resistance at $23.52. Moving-average, momentum, and volume readings were not independently available in the same source set, so this static page does not present invented values. Confirm all indicators on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.74 per common share | StockAnalysis reported the July 9, 2026 NYSE close used for this page. |
| Immediate support | $21.24 | The July 2 technical reference identified this as nearby support. Refresh it with a current chart and volume data. |
| Deeper support | $20.21 to $19.82 | December 2025 book value per share was $20.21 and March 2026 book value per common share was $19.82. These are valuation references, not guaranteed chart support. |
| Near resistance | $23.52 | The July 2 technical reference identified this as nearby resistance. |
| Higher resistance | $24.00 to $24.50 | A move above the referenced resistance would need confirmation from price, volume, book-value commentary, and the rate backdrop. |
| Moving averages | Refresh on a live chart | A consistent current moving-average set was not verified before the cutoff, so no static values are asserted. |
| Momentum | Refresh on a live chart | Use RSI and price reaction around $21.24 and $23.52 as confirmation tools rather than standalone signals. |
| Volume | Monitor around earnings and dividend dates | Watch participation around the July 21, 2026 confirmed earnings date, Treasury moves, mortgage-spread changes, and dividend announcements. |
| Volatility | Rate and mortgage-spread sensitive | Mortgage REIT volatility can rise when Treasury yields, implied volatility, funding markets, prepayment expectations, or agency MBS spreads move. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $21.24, then book-value deterioration | A break below the referenced support calls for a fresh review of price action and fundamentals, especially book value, leverage, hedge positioning, and dividend coverage. |
NLY AI trading strategy
The NLY AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It connects technical levels with book value, earnings available for distribution, dividend coverage, leverage, funding, hedge exposure, mortgage spreads, prepayments, and the Treasury-rate backdrop.
Watch for NLY to hold above $21.24 and then clear $23.52 with improving volume, stable or rising book-value commentary, dividend coverage, and a rate or spread backdrop that supports mortgage REITs.
A failed breakout or sustained close below $21.24 weakens the setup, especially if book value falls or management reports worse funding, spread, prepayment, or leverage conditions.
If NLY retests the $20.21 to $19.82 book-value reference area without a worsening in earnings available for distribution, funding access, hedges, or asset quality, compare price with a conservative view of book value and dividend sustainability.
Do not assume a high yield means value if price weakness follows book-value erosion, a larger discount required by investors, poor hedge performance, rising funding costs, or a reduced distribution outlook.
Track book value per common share, earnings available for distribution, dividend declarations, economic and GAAP leverage, net interest margin, asset yields, funding costs, hedge ratio, CPR, agency MBS spreads, liquidity, common-share issuance, and the yield curve.
Position sizing should reflect that NLY is a leveraged mortgage REIT. Historical dividends and a static AI score are not substitutes for live market data or personal risk limits.
Investment research summary
Annaly finances and manages mortgage-related assets. Shareholders are paid from the difference between asset income, funding and hedge costs, servicing income, operating expenses, and changes in the value of a leveraged balance sheet.
The moat is operational rather than customer-facing: scale in agency MBS, repo funding relationships, risk management, hedging, securitization, and mortgage servicing. It can improve execution, but it does not create permanent pricing power over mortgage spreads.
The thesis fails if mortgage spreads widen, rate volatility damages hedges or book value, funding becomes more expensive or scarce, prepayments change unfavorably, leverage amplifies losses, common equity issuance dilutes value, or the dividend no longer matches earnings available for distribution.
Management must balance income generation against book-value defense. The key tests are hedge discipline, financing resilience, leverage control, asset allocation, capital issuance, dividend policy, and whether risk-adjusted returns exceed the cost of capital through a full rate cycle.
Mortgage finance depends on housing-credit formation, the supply and demand for agency MBS, bank and nonbank funding, Federal Reserve policy, and Treasury volatility. The sector benefits from stable financing and investable spreads, but it is not a simple long-term growth story.
At $22.74, the selected inputs imply 1.13x December 2025 book value and a 12.31% annualized dividend yield. The March 2026 book value was $19.82, so the margin of safety should be judged against a forward, stressed estimate of book value and dividend coverage rather than a single historical multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NLY quote reference | $22.74 NYSE close on July 9, 2026 | StockAnalysis NLY statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $16.66 billion calculated from $22.74 x 732.78 million shares, matching the reported $16.66 billion with a 0.02% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis NLY statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 732.78 million common shares outstanding | StockAnalysis NLY statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.869 billion, cross-validated between Annaly Form 10-K and StockAnalysis with a 0.00% variance | Annaly 2025 Form 10-K | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue presentation | Macrotrends reports $7.068 billion while StockAnalysis reports $2.244 billion. The 51.80% cross-validation variance reflects differing financial-institution presentation and is not used as a unified operating-revenue conclusion. | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis NLY financials | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | $452.691 million net interest income, $290.515 million net income, $0.33 GAAP net income per average common share, and $0.76 earnings available for distribution per average common share | Annaly Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| March 2026 balance sheet | $1.912 billion cash and equivalents, $138.538 billion total assets, 7.3:1 GAAP leverage, and $19.82 book value per common share. Cash was cross-validated with the Q1 earnings release at a 0.00% variance. | Annaly Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation inputs | $0.70 quarterly common dividend, $2.80 annualized; FY2025 EPS $2.92 and December 2025 book value per share $20.21. financial_rigor.py calculated 7.79x PE, 1.13x PB, and 12.31% yield. | Annaly Q1 2026 results, StockAnalysis, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical reference | $21.24 support and $23.52 resistance in a July 2, 2026 technical snapshot | TradingKey NLY technical analysis | July 11, 2026 |
This NLY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of July 11, 2026 and may be wrong if interest rates, mortgage spreads, prepayments, funding markets, book value, leverage, dividend policy, market conditions, or company disclosures change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
