NIQ Global Intelligence plc research snapshot
NIQ AI stock analysis reads NIQ Global Intelligence plc (NielsenIQ) as a leading consumer intelligence company that sells data and analytics about what consumers buy across omnichannel retail, with software applications and analytics solutions in the United States and internationally. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the stock traded at $11.56 at the August 3, 2026, 3:40 PM EDT reading, up 0.39 or 3.49% from the $11.17 July 31 close, carrying a market capitalization near $3.41 billion, matching the $11.56 price times 295.14 million shares outstanding, with an enterprise value near $6.87 billion. The company reported FY2025 revenue of about $4.20 billion with a GAAP net loss of $353.3 million, and Q1 2026 revenue of $1.07 billion with a GAAP net loss of $90.1 million, while management reported 5.1% organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA growth of 19.1%, strong free cash flow, and raised full-year guidance. The investment case turns on whether NIQ can keep growing organically, expand margins, cut leverage, and reach GAAP profitability after its July 23, 2025 IPO. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction, and is an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$11.56 at the August 3, 2026, 3:40 PM EDT reading, up 0.39 or 3.49% from the $11.17 July 31 close, within a session range of $11.11 to $11.73 after opening at $11.38
Market cap
$3.41 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 reading, matching the $11.56 price times 295.14 million shares outstanding (0.05% variance), with Macrotrends reporting about $3.30 billion on a different snapshot
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Improving fundamentals with heavy debt and a short public history
Trend status
Recovery rally holding above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but still below the 200-day average ahead of the August 10 Q2 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NIQ owns a leading global consumer intelligence platform with omnichannel retail measurement, consumer panels, and analytics that CPG brands and retailers rely on for pricing, assortment, promotion, merchandising, and media decisions, with TTM revenue near $4.31 billion across the Intelligence and Activation segments. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from proprietary retail data relationships, long-term contracts with retailers and manufacturers, panel scale, the Nielsen brand heritage, and embedded analytics workflows that create switching costs. Data network effects exist but face competition from Circana, Kantar and other alternative data providers plus in-house analytics. | Medium |
| Management | Management is executing the NielsenIQ-GfK integration, the Flywheel e-commerce data acquisition, deleveraging, and AI product launches including NIQ Cadence and gfknewron GenAI. It reported 5.1% organic growth in Q1 2026, raised full-year guidance, and added a Chief AI Commercial Officer, but share count grew about 14% in a year and key-person risk remains. | Medium |
| Financial trend | NIQ reported FY2025 revenue of about $4.20 billion with a GAAP net loss of $353.3 million, a narrower loss than the $798 million in 2024, and its first positive annual GAAP operating income of $85.4 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $1.07 billion with a GAAP net loss of $90.1 million and GAAP EPS of -$0.31, while management cited 5.1% organic growth, 19.1% adjusted EBITDA growth, and strong free cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $11.56, financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com statistics verify a forward PE near 10.7x to 11.8x on FY2026E adjusted EPS of $0.98, 0.79x revenue, 3.60x book value, 9.98x price to free cash flow, and 9.57x EV/EBITDA. Trailing PE is not meaningful because GAAP earnings remain negative, so the market is pricing a profitable and deleveraged future. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NIQ is in a recovery rally after bottoming near $7.93 in June 2026. The stock traded at $11.56 on August 3, above its 20-day moving average near $11.08 and its 50-day near $9.55 but below the 200-day near $12.31, with a 14-day RSI of 62.76 that is firm but not overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the company carries about $3.46 billion of net debt with debt to EBITDA near 5.3x, reports GAAP net losses, has a share count up about 14% in a year, operates in a competitive data intelligence market, has a thin float of about 104.5 million shares, and faces event risk around the August 10 Q2 2026 report. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is medium-high because public data and valuation math cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com, Macrotrends, and Yahoo Finance. Forward-conviction confidence is lower because the turnaround execution, leverage reduction, competitive dynamics, and the shift from adjusted to GAAP profitability will determine the investment outcome. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business franchise is established, but the capital structure, short public history, dilution, and absence of GAAP profitability create a narrower margin of safety. Improvement in free cash flow durability and a path to GAAP earnings would increase certainty. | Low to medium |
NIQ AI stock forecast
The NIQ AI stock forecast should be read as a scenario range, not a point target. Using the August 3, 2026 price of $11.56 and the FY2026E adjusted EPS consensus of about $0.98, the financial_rigor.py three-scenario model produced a bearish area near $7.50, a base area near $18.63, and a bullish area near $30.80 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 3%, 20%, and 28% and exit multiples of 7x, 11x, and 15x. These are framework scenarios, not price predictions.
$26 to $33
More likely if NIQ sustains mid-single-digit or better organic growth, adjusted EBITDA and margins keep expanding, AI products like NIQ Cadence and gfknewron drive measurable revenue, the Flywheel e-commerce integration adds growth, debt reduction continues, and GAAP profitability arrives by 2027.
$15 to $22
More likely if NIQ delivers steady mid-single-digit organic growth and margin expansion, keeps raising guidance, compounds adjusted EPS near the consensus path of about $0.98 in 2026 and $1.21 in 2027, and gradually reduces leverage while the stock holds a low double-digit forward multiple.
$6 to $9
More likely if growth stalls, competitive pressure from alternative data providers and in-house analytics erodes pricing, debt service and continued share issuance weigh on equity value, GAAP losses persist into 2027, or the August 10 Q2 report and later releases disappoint on organic growth, margins, or guidance.
NIQ AI technical analysis
NIQ AI technical analysis shows a recovery rally as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $11.56 at 3:40 PM EDT on August 3, up 0.39 or 3.49% from the $11.17 July 31 close, above its 20-day moving average of $11.08 and its 50-day moving average of $9.55 but below its 200-day moving average of $12.31, with a 14-day RSI of 62.76. NIQ bottomed near $7.93 in June 2026, rallied to $11.97 on July 29, pulled back to $11.17 on July 31, and is now attempting a recovery into the August 10 Q2 earnings report. The 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages were computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing price history, and the 200-day value comes from the StockAnalysis.com statistics page.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.56 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 3:40 PM EDT reading, up 0.39 or 3.49% from the $11.17 July 31 close within a session range of $11.11 to $11.73 after opening at $11.38, with the implied market cap near $3.41 billion matching the price times 295.14 million shares. |
| 5-day moving average | $11.56 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, so the current price sits exactly on the short-term pivot after the July pullback. |
| Key support | $11.00 to $11.17 | The July 31 close of $11.17 and the psychological $11 level, alongside the early to mid July consolidation zone, form the first support shelf for the recovery rally. |
| Deeper support | $10.43 to $10.75 | The July 23 and July 24 swing lows are the recent reaction lows. A close below this zone would signal the July rally is retracing rather than pausing. |
| Round-number support | $10.00 | The $10 round number sits near the July 6 low of $9.82 and the late June breakout area, and is a natural reference level for swing traders. |
| 50-day moving average | $9.55 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $9.55 on August 3, 2026, which matches the simple average of the fifty daily closes in the StockAnalysis.com history, making it the major medium-term support below price. |
| Near resistance | $11.73 to $11.97 | The August 3 session high of $11.73 and the July 29 rally high of $11.97 form the immediate overhead zone that must be cleared with volume. |
| 200-day moving average | $12.31 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $12.31 on August 3, 2026, the key overhead trend line because it reflects the higher post-IPO prices of 2025. |
| Next resistance | $12.50 to $13.50 | This zone sits above the 200-day moving average and approaches the analyst median target of about $14, and would become the next objective if the stock clears $12.31. |
| 20-day moving average | $11.08 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, an immediate support reference just below price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 62.8 | The 14-day RSI was near 62.76 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, firm but not overbought, leaving room for the recovery to extend toward the 200-day moving average. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.47 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 1.47 million shares on August 3, 2026. The rally included expanding volume days such as 2.67 million on July 7 and 2.18 million on July 28, while the August 3 reading showed about 389,000 shares by mid-session, so breakout quality matters. |
| Volatility | High, especially near earnings | The 52-week range of $7.93 to $18.70, a thin float of about 104.5 million shares, a 1-year return near -36%, and the August 10 Q2 report mean position sizing should account for large single-day swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $10.43 | A decisive close below the July swing low zone of $10.43 to $10.75 would weaken the short-term recovery framework, and a close below $9.82 or the 50-day moving average near $9.55 would be more serious. |
NIQ AI trading strategy
The NIQ AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework for scenario planning and risk control, not personal advice. It connects price action with organic revenue growth, margin improvement, debt reduction, competitive dynamics, and the August 10 Q2 report.
Watch for NIQ to reclaim the July 29 high of $11.97 and then clear the 200-day moving average near $12.31 with above-average volume. Pair the signal with improving quarterly organic growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, and debt reduction in the August 10 Q2 report.
Define risk before entry. A daily close back below $11.00 or below-average volume on the breakout can be used as a rules-based invalidation point.
If NIQ pulls back toward $10.43 to $10.75 or the $10.00 zone without a fundamentals-driven catalyst (an earnings miss or debt news), compare price stabilization with the August 10 Q2 results and the organic revenue growth trajectory.
Do not average down just because the stock is cheaper from the July high. The mean-reversion setup breaks if the company reports deteriorating margins, revenue, liquidity, or a sharp increase in debt or share issuance.
Track quarterly revenue growth (organic and reported), adjusted EBITDA margin progression, GAAP net income path, free cash flow, total debt and net leverage, share count changes, the Flywheel e-commerce integration, NIQ Cadence and gfknewron adoption, client retention, and competitive dynamics with alternative data providers.
Refresh the forecast after each quarterly earnings report, especially the August 10 Q2 release. A high-debt capital structure with GAAP losses means small changes in EBITDA, interest costs, or share count can have outsized effects on net income and equity value.
Investment research summary
NIQ sells data and analytics about what consumers buy, where they buy it, and why, across omnichannel retail. Its clients, the worlds largest CPG brands and retailers, use this intelligence for pricing, assortment, promotion, merchandising, and media decisions that directly affect their revenue and market share.
The moat rests on proprietary retail measurement data from long-term retailer and manufacturer relationships, consumer panel infrastructure, the Nielsen brand heritage built over decades, and embedded analytics workflows that create switching costs. Data scale is a barrier, but clients can supplement NIQ with Circana, Kantar and other alternative data, or in-house analytics.
The thesis fails if the debt load, with net debt near $3.46 billion and debt to EBITDA near 5.3x, forces dilution or investment cuts, AI products like NIQ Cadence fail to convert into measurable revenue, competitive pressure erodes pricing power, GAAP losses persist into 2027, or integration and client concentration problems surface.
Management is executing the NielsenIQ-GfK integration, the Flywheel e-commerce data acquisition, deleveraging, and AI product launches including NIQ Cadence and gfknewron GenAI. It reported 5.1% organic growth in Q1 2026, raised full-year guidance, and added a Chief AI Commercial Officer, but share count grew about 14% in a year and key-person risk remains.
Consumer intelligence and retail measurement benefit from secular growth in data-driven decision making, e-commerce and omnichannel complexity, retail media networks, and agentic commerce, as reflected in NIQ data pointing to 120 million AI pay transactions in a single week. The industry also faces client budget scrutiny and competing data sources.
At about $3.41 billion in market value and $6.87 billion enterprise value, NIQ trades at a forward price to earnings ratio near 11x on FY2026E adjusted EPS, 0.79x revenue, 3.60x book value, and 9.57x EV/EBITDA. Because GAAP earnings remain negative, trailing PE is not meaningful, and the margin of safety depends on whether adjusted EPS delivery and debt reduction turn into GAAP profitability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIQ price | $11.56 at the August 3, 2026, 3:40 PM EDT reading, up 0.39 or 3.49% from the $11.17 July 31 close, within a session range of $11.11 to $11.73 after opening at $11.38 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.41 billion, verified via financial_rigor.py: $11.56 x 295.14 million shares = $3.41B, 0.05% variance from reported, with Macrotrends reporting about $3.30 billion and Yahoo Finance about $3.53 billion on different snapshots | StockAnalysis.com and Macrotrends, financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $6.87 billion, with Yahoo Finance showing about $6.91 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $7.93 to $18.70 on StockAnalysis.com, with Yahoo Finance showing $7.93 to $19.00 | StockAnalysis.com quote and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 295.14 million shares, up 14.05% year over year, with a float of 104.53 million, 35.34% owned by institutions, and 3.79% owned by insiders | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.20 billion, up 5.68% from $3.97 billion in 2024, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis.com financials and Macrotrends | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | -$353.3 million GAAP net loss, narrowed from -$798 million in 2024, with GAAP EPS of -$1.32 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating income and cash flow | First positive annual GAAP operating income of $85.4 million, operating cash flow of $298.7 million, and free cash flow of $264 million with free cash flow per share of $0.99 | StockAnalysis.com financials and cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 reported results | Revenue of $1,073 million, up about 11% from $966 million in Q1 2025, with a GAAP net loss of $90.1 million, GAAP EPS of -$0.31, and operating income of -$10.2 million, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Macrotrends, and Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis.com quarterly financials, Macrotrends, and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating highlights | 5.1% organic revenue growth, 19.1% adjusted EBITDA growth, and strong free cash flow, with full-year guidance raised, reflecting robust demand and margin expansion | NIQ Q1 2026 earnings call summary, May 14, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $4.31 billion, net loss of $323.6 million, EBITDA of $717.9 million, operating income of $168.6 million, operating cash flow of $388.7 million, and free cash flow of $342.0 million with free cash flow per share of $1.16 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | As of March 31, 2026, cash and equivalents of $362.3 million, total debt of $3,761 million, net debt of -$3,399 million or -$11.52 per share, total assets of $6,749 million, common book equity of $915.9 million, and book value per share of $3.10 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Leverage and solvency | Debt to equity of 3.31, debt to EBITDA of 5.32, current ratio of 1.07, quick ratio of 0.90, interest coverage of 0.30, Altman Z-score of 0.74, and Piotroski F-score of 5 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Segment revenue Q1 2026 | Intelligence segment of $884 million and Activation segment of $188.7 million, versus $797.4 million and $168.5 million in Q1 2025 | StockAnalysis.com quarterly segment data | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $14.62 across 14 analysts, median $14, low $10.50, and high $24, implying about 26.5% upside from the August 3 price | StockAnalysis.com forecast, S&P Global Market Intelligence and TipRanks | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 7 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell out of 14 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | RBC Capital maintained a Buy at $13 on July 21, Barclays maintained a Buy at $24 on July 10, Stifel maintained a Buy at $16 on July 8, J.P. Morgan maintained a Buy and cut $18 to $14 on May 19, and BMO Capital reiterated a Buy and cut $16 to $11 on May 18 | StockAnalysis.com forecast analyst actions | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $4.48 billion with adjusted EPS of $0.98, FY2027 revenue of $4.71 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.21, three-year revenue growth forecast of 5.56%, and three-year EPS growth forecast of 83.71% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Forward PE near 10.69 on StockAnalysis.com statistics and near 11.80 via financial_rigor.py at $11.56 divided by the $0.98 FY2026E adjusted EPS, with 0.79x revenue, 3.60x book value, 9.98x price to free cash flow, 9.57x EV/EBITDA, and 20.09x EV/FCF | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average of $11.56 and 20-day moving average of $11.08 computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day moving average of $9.55 and 200-day moving average of $12.31 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 62.76, and 20-day average volume near 1.47 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Employees and listing | 38,760 employees as of December 31, 2025, listed on NYSE since the July 23, 2025 IPO, with the next earnings report scheduled for August 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com employees page and quote page | August 4, 2026 |
This NIQ AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical conditions, competitive dynamics, debt markets, or investor sentiment change.
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