Nicolet Bankshares Inc. research snapshot
NIC AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Nicolet Bankshares Inc. as a high-performing Upper Midwest community bank that just closed the MidWestOne merger and keeps beating expectations. The stock closed at $173.51 on August 3, 2026, up 2.59 or 1.52% from the $170.92 July 31 close, after opening at $174.00 and touching a new 52-week high of $174.74, carrying a market capitalization near $3.64 billion at the $173.51 price times 20.96 million shares outstanding, with the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 21,060,762 shares as of June 30, 2026. Q2 2026 net income was $57 million, or $2.62 per diluted share, and core net income was $65 million, or $2.99 per share, ahead of the $2.91 consensus, with net interest margin of 4.14%, core return on tangible common equity of 21.59%, and net charge-offs of only $651,000. The MidWestOne merger, closed February 13, 2026, added about $6.1 billion of assets, $4.4 billion of loans, and $5.3 billion of deposits, and management kept buying back stock, repurchasing 267,310 shares for $40 million in Q2 and authorizing $150 million more. The stock trades at about 20.0x trailing earnings and 13.5x forward earnings, which prices in successful integration and continued margin expansion. This page uses scenario ranges rather than price promises, and it is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$173.51 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 2.59 or 1.52% from the $170.92 July 31 close, after opening at $174.00 and trading in a session range of $171.81 to $174.74
Market cap
$3.64 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $173.51 price times 20.96 million shares outstanding, with the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 21,060,762 shares as of June 30, 2026
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
High-performing community bank, fair to full valuation
Trend status
Positive momentum at a new 52-week high, above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $167.89 and $156.35
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nicolet is a relationship-driven community bank with about $15.4 billion of assets after the MidWestOne merger, generating Q2 2026 return on average assets of 1.47% and core return on tangible common equity of 21.59%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is built from local market relationships in Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota, a low-cost core deposit base, commercial and agricultural lending expertise, and wealth management and trust services, with moderate switching costs for commercial borrowers. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founder Mike Daniels has led disciplined execution, closing the $6.1 billion MidWestOne merger, expanding the net interest margin to 4.14%, repurchasing 267,310 shares for $40 million in Q2 2026, and authorizing $150 million more, while non-core merger costs still diluted Q2 EPS by $0.37. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue and earnings rose sharply after the merger. TTM revenue was about $510 million, net income about $154 million, profit margin about 30%, and book value per share about $108.32, with net cash of $362.50 million or $17.30 per share. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At about 20.0x trailing earnings, 13.5x forward earnings, and 1.60x book value, NIC trades above many regional bank peers. The multiple is justified only if the merger delivers planned cost savings and NIM stays elevated. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NIC closed at $173.51 on August 3, 2026, touching a new 52-week high of $174.74, above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $167.89, $156.35, and $143.18, with 14-day RSI near 65.29. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are MidWestOne integration execution, the Denver branch sale expected to close in Q3 2026, CRE and agricultural loan concentration, net interest margin sensitivity to rate policy, deposit cost pressure, and key-person reliance on co-founder management. | Medium |
| AI confidence | High for verified market data, Q2 2026 results, and balance sheet figures that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Form 10-Q, and the press release. Lower for forward credit and rate predictions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-to-medium certainty because the page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-to-medium |
NIC AI stock forecast
The NIC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $173.51 August 3, 2026 close rather than a point target. The consensus price target is $191.80, about 10.5% above price. The bullish case needs continued NIM expansion and clean credit, the base case assumes the integration delivers on plan, and the bearish case assumes integration or credit stress.
$205 to $230
More likely if NIM stays near 4% or above, MidWestOne cost savings land ahead of plan, organic loan growth resumes in Iowa and Minnesota, credit quality holds, and the stock re-rates toward a 15x to 17x forward multiple on FY2027 adjusted EPS near $13.42.
$182 to $200
More likely if FY2026 adjusted EPS tracks the $12.05 consensus, the core conversion completes on schedule in late summer 2026, the Denver branch sale closes in Q3 2026, and the stock holds near a 14x to 16x forward multiple, close to the $191.80 consensus target.
$130 to $160
More likely if integration costs run higher or longer than planned, CRE or agricultural credit deteriorates, NIM compresses as deposit costs reprice, the Upper Midwest economy weakens, or the multiple de-rates toward 10x to 12x forward earnings.
NIC AI technical analysis
NIC AI technical analysis starts from the $173.51 August 3, 2026 close and the 52-week range of $114.12 to $174.74. The stock touched a new 52-week high of $174.74 on August 3 and closed above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $167.89, $156.35, and $143.18, with 14-day RSI near 65.29. Moving averages come from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history and statistics page as of August 4, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $173.51 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 2.59 or 1.52% from the $170.92 July 31 close after opening at $174.00 and trading in a session range of $171.81 to $174.74, a new 52-week high. |
| 5-day moving average | $171.64 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, just below the current price. |
| 20-day moving average | $167.89 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, the nearest support for pullbacks. |
| Near support | $167.89 to $171.64 | The 20-day and 5-day moving averages computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history as of August 3, 2026 form the first support zone. |
| Next support | $156.35 to $160 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $156.35 on August 3, 2026, with round-number demand near $160 below the recent breakout. |
| Near resistance | $174.74 to $178 | The 52-week high of $174.74 set on August 3, 2026 is the immediate overhead, with $178 as the next extension band. |
| 50-day moving average | $156.35 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $156.35 on August 3, 2026, confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $143.18 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $143.18 on August 3, 2026, confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 65.3 | The 14-day RSI was near 65.29 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, strong but not overbought. |
| Volume | About 217,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed average volume near 217,427 shares per day on August 3, 2026, low in absolute terms, which can amplify price moves on news. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Beta of 0.65 on StockAnalysis.com statistics suggests lower volatility than the broad market, but regional banks can move sharply on rate and credit news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $167.89 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $167.89 would weaken the short-term setup; a close below the 50-day near $156.35 would suggest a deeper correction. |
NIC AI trading strategy
The NIC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with position sizing, stop levels, fresh filings, and credit quality checks before acting.
Watch for NIC to hold above its 20-day moving average near $167.89 and to build volume on a sustained break above the $174.74 52-week high, which would extend the post-merger uptrend.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average near $167.89 or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should invalidate the setup.
If NIC pulls back toward the $167.89 to $171.64 support zone without a thesis break, compare price action with Q3 results due October 20, 2026, NIM trends, and credit quality data before acting.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss because merger integration headlines and credit data can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track the evidence that matters most for regional banks: net interest margin, loan and deposit growth, core deposit costs, credit loss provisions, nonperforming assets, merger integration milestones, and the Denver branch sale timing.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by macro headlines without matching evidence from filings and the earnings release.
Investment research summary
Nicolet Bankshares runs Nicolet National Bank, a community bank that turns low-cost core deposits into commercial, CRE, agricultural, residential, and consumer loans, plus wealth management and trust services, for clients in Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota.
The moat comes from local market relationships, personalized service against megabanks, a low-cost core deposit base, commercial and agricultural lending expertise, and wealth management cross-sell. Switching costs for commercial borrowers are moderate but real.
The thesis can fail if the MidWestOne integration runs over budget, the core conversion slips, CRE or agricultural credit deteriorates, net interest margin compresses as deposit costs reprice, the Denver branch sale is delayed, or the Upper Midwest economy weakens.
Co-founder Mike Daniels has a long record of conservative credit and steady capital allocation. The MidWestOne merger added scale and a full quarter of balances lifted Q2 2026 net interest margin to 4.14%, while Q2 still absorbed $0.37 of merger-related expense per share and the bank bought back $40 million of stock.
Regional banks face rate-cycle pressure on net interest margin, competition for deposits, fintech disruption, and regulatory costs. Consolidation such as MidWestOne can create scale, but the industry premium depends on credit discipline and cost control.
At about 20.0x trailing earnings, 13.5x forward earnings, and 1.60x book value, NIC trades above many regional bank peers. Margin of safety is moderate and depends on the merger delivering planned cost savings and on credit staying clean.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIC price | $173.51 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 2.59 or 1.52% from the $170.92 July 31 close, after opening at $174.00 and trading in a session range of $171.81 to $174.74, a new 52-week high | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.64 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $173.51 price times 20.96 million shares outstanding via financial_rigor.py with 0.09% deviation, with the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 21,060,762 shares as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, NIC Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Exchange | NYSE | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 20.96 million per StockAnalysis.com; Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover lists 21,060,762 shares as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and NIC Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 20.00x | StockAnalysis.com statistics, verified as $173.51 divided by $8.67 EPS via financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward PE | 13.50x on StockAnalysis.com statistics; about 14.4x computed as $173.51 divided by the FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate of $12.05 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $8.67 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $114.12 to $174.74 | StockAnalysis.com quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y) | 0.65 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $510.22 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics, cross-checked with SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept data | August 4, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $154.16 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics, cross-checked with SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept data | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net income of $57 million, or $2.62 per diluted share, and core net income of $65 million, or $2.99 per share, ahead of the $2.91 consensus, on net interest margin of 4.14%, core return on average assets of 1.69%, and core return on tangible common equity of 21.59% | NIC Q2 2026 earnings press release furnished on Form 8-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Net interest margin (Q2 2026) | 4.14% for Q2 2026, up from 3.98% in Q1 2026 and 3.72% in Q2 2025, including 23 bps of loan purchase accounting accretion | NIC Q2 2026 earnings press release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Total assets | $15.4 billion at June 30, 2026, down $160 million from March 31, 2026 | NIC Q2 2026 earnings press release and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Total loans | $10.848 billion at June 30, 2026, with an allowance for credit losses of $134 million or 1.23% of loans | NIC Q2 2026 earnings press release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Total deposits | $12.523 billion at June 30, 2026 | NIC Q2 2026 earnings press release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Nonperforming assets | $75 million or 0.49% of total assets at June 30, 2026, down from $79 million or 0.51% at March 31, 2026 | NIC Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $108.32 | StockAnalysis.com statistics, consistent with stockholders equity of $2.27 billion at June 30, 2026 per SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Tangible book value per share | $62.19 at June 30, 2026, up from $60.47 at March 31, 2026 | NIC Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Total cash | $455.25 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | $92.75 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Net cash | $362.50 million, or $17.30 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| ROE (TTM) | 8.91%; Q2 2026 return on average equity was 10.09% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and NIC Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Profit margin | 30.21% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward dividend yield | 0.83% ($1.44 annual, $0.36 quarterly) | StockAnalysis.com and NIC Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 6 analysts, average price target $191.80, range $185 to $200 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 4, 2026 |
This NIC AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, economic conditions, or Fed policy changes. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
