Bullish case
$191.62 to $220.86
More likely if Nicolet Bankshares maintains NIM stability, credit quality holds, the Upper Midwest economy remains solid, and the stock holds above near support with improving volume.
Nicolet Bankshares Inc. research snapshot
NIC AI Stock Analysis
NIC AI stock analysis currently reads Nicolet Bankshares Inc. as a well-capitalized Upper Midwest regional bank holding company trading near its 52-week high. At the July 13, 2026 data cutoff, the NYSE quoted price was $166.12, market capitalization was about $3.53 billion, and PE was 19.5x. The main decision point is whether stable credit quality and NIM resilience can sustain the current premium against a potential rate cycle shift. This page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$166.12
Market cap
$3.53 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Solid regional bank, fair valuation
Trend status
Positive medium-term momentum, near 52-week highs
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. NIC has regular SEC filings and four analyst ratings, but coverage is limited compared to large-cap banks. Financial data is adequate for research but forward estimates have wider ranges.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risk is that limited coverage may produce consensus-driven analysis. The analysis separates verified financial data from forward-looking judgments and marks source gaps.
- ai Confidence
- Medium data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Low-to-medium. The page provides a scenario framework and verified market data, but position decisions require first-party filings, live chart data, personal risk constraints, and updated credit metrics before acting.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nicolet Bankshares is a well-run regional bank focused on commercial lending, CRE, residential mortgages, and wealth management in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is built from local market relationships, personalized service against megabanks, and a conservative lending culture. Switching costs for commercial borrowers are moderate. | Medium |
| Management | Management has maintained a conservative credit culture with consistent profitability. Capital allocation has focused on organic growth and measured acquisitions. CEO Mike Daniels has led since before the IPO. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue and net income have grown steadily. TTM revenue was $428.7 million, net income $133.3 million, profit margin 31%. ROE of 7.8% is adequate for a regional bank. Cash position of $605 million provides a solid buffer. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At 19.5x PE and 1.57x book, NIC trades at a premium to some regional bank peers. The valuation reflects consistent earnings and a clean balance sheet. Margin of safety is moderate. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NIC is trading near its 52-week high of $170.82 with positive YTD momentum of about 37%. Near-term support and resistance should be confirmed with live chart data before acting. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if the regional economy weakens, CRE credit quality deteriorates, net interest margin compresses faster than expected, or acquisition integration underperforms. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium data confidence for verified market data and qualitative mapping. Lower confidence for forward credit or rate predictions. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-to-medium certainty because the page provides a framework and verified facts, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. | Low-to-medium |
NIC AI stock forecast
NIC AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The NIC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $166.12 quote rather than a point target. The bullish case requires stable credit quality and NIM resilience; the base case assumes steady regional bank performance; the bearish case assumes a regional economic or credit downturn.
Base case
$159.48 to $189.38
More likely if financial results remain in line with expectations, NIM faces moderate pressure from rate policy, and the stock trades around current levels while the market digests the next earnings report due July 22, 2026.
Bearish case
$120.77 to $148.69
More likely if these risk paths appear: regional economic weakness drives CRE credit losses, NIM compresses faster than expected, or acquisition integration disappoints, and technical support levels break after the data cutoff.
NIC AI technical analysis
NIC AI Technical Analysis
NIC AI technical analysis starts from the $166.12 quote with a 52-week range of $114.12 to $170.82. The stock shows positive medium-term momentum with YTD returns near 37%. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and live momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $166.12 | Current quote as of the July 13, 2026 data cutoff. Near the 52-week high of $170.82. |
| Near support | $152.83 to $159.48 | Estimated from the current quote and recent price bands. Treat as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $170.82 to $178.15 | Estimated from 52-week high and a normal extension band. A clean break above the 52-week high would signal continued momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use current chart data before acting. The page does not fetch request-time market data. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Long-term trend confirmation should be checked against a live chart or broker data. |
| Momentum | Positive medium-term momentum | YTD return of about 37% and near 52-week highs suggest constructive momentum that needs live confirmation. |
| Volume | Moderate volume | Average daily volume of about 265,000 shares. Low relative to mega-cap stocks, which can amplify price moves. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Beta of 0.65 suggests lower volatility than the broad market, but regional bank stocks can move sharply on rate or credit news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $152.83 | A decisive close below the support zone would weaken the short-term setup and suggest a possible trend reversal. |
NIC AI trading strategy
NIC AI Trading Strategy Framework
The NIC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, fresh filings, and credit quality checks.
Trend-following setup
Wait for NIC to hold above near support and push through the 52-week high resistance zone with volume that confirms buyer demand.
A close below the support zone or a failed breakout above the 52-week high should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If NIC pulls back toward the support band without a thesis break, compare price action with the next earnings report (due July 22, 2026), NIM trends, and credit quality data.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of regional banking and credit risk.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most for regional banks: net interest margin trends, loan growth, credit loss provisions, deposit costs, and regulatory updates.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by macro headlines without matching fundamental evidence from filings.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Nicolet Bankshares provides commercial banking, CRE lending, residential mortgages, consumer loans, wealth management, and trust services to clients in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota through its subsidiary Nicolet National Bank.
Moat
The moat is built from local market relationships, personalized service against megabank competitors, a conservative lending culture, and a stable low-cost deposit base. Switching costs for commercial borrowers are moderate but real.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if the Upper Midwest regional economy weakens, CRE credit quality deteriorates significantly, net interest margin compresses faster than peers, or acquisition integration underperforms expectations.
Management
CEO Mike Daniels and the executive team have maintained consistent profitability and a conservative credit culture. Capital allocation has balanced organic growth with measured acquisitions. Management owns a meaningful stake aligned with shareholders.
Industry trend
Regional banking faces headwinds from potential rate policy shifts, competition from larger institutions and fintech, and regulatory costs. However, well-run community banks with sticky deposit bases and conservative underwriting can continue to perform.
Valuation and margin of safety
At 19.5x PE and 1.57x book, NIC trades at a premium to many regional bank peers. Valuation assumes continued credit quality and stable NIM. Margin of safety is moderate and could narrow if earnings growth slows.
Source-backed data
NIC Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIC price | $166.12 | Yahoo Finance snapshot, cross-checked with Google Finance ($164.08) | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.53 billion, verified as $166.12 x 21.25M shares via financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 13, 2026 |
| Exchange | NYSE | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 21.25 million | Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 19.54x | Yahoo Finance, verified via financial_rigor.py | July 13, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $8.50 | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $114.12 to $170.82 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y) | 0.65 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $428.66 million | Yahoo Finance, cross-checked with Google Finance quarterly data | July 13, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $133.29 million | Yahoo Finance, cross-checked with Google Finance quarterly data | July 13, 2026 |
| Profit margin | 31.09% | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| ROE (TTM) | 7.75% | Yahoo Finance, verified via financial_rigor.py | July 13, 2026 |
| Price/book (mrq) | 1.57x | Yahoo Finance, verified via financial_rigor.py | July 13, 2026 |
| Total cash (mrq) | $605.45 million | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Forward dividend yield | 0.79% ($1.32 annual) | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy (3 Buy, 1 Hold) | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 13, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This NIC AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 13, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, economic conditions, or Fed policy changes. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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