National Fuel Gas Company research snapshot
NFG AI stock analysis currently reads National Fuel Gas Company as an integrated natural gas business with a regulated utility and pipeline base, a large Appalachian production position, and a pending Ohio utility acquisition. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, NFG closed at $79.10, had a verified market capitalization near $7.52 billion, and traded close to its 50-day average of $79.18 but below its 200-day average of $84.18. The fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint is $7.60, while the three-year scenario model points to a wide range because gas prices, financing, regulation, and the Ohio transaction can change the earnings path. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$79.10 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$7.52 billion, verified from price and shares outstanding
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Integrated gas platform with durable regulated assets, but commodity and acquisition financing risks remain
Trend status
Neutral to constructive: price is near the 50-day average and below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | National Fuel combines Appalachian gas production, gathering, interstate pipeline and storage assets, and regulated utility service. That mix provides more cash flow sources than a stand-alone producer, but upstream earnings still move with gas prices. | High |
| Moat | The strongest barriers are regulated service territories, existing pipeline rights of way, storage capacity, operating permits, and scale in the Marcellus and Utica region. The upstream business has less protection when gas supply is abundant. | High |
| Management | CEO David P. Bauer has worked across National Fuel and its pipeline businesses. Management is pursuing a $2.62 billion Ohio utility acquisition, so capital discipline will be judged by financing costs, regulatory execution, integration, and per-share earnings growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $2.278 billion and net income available to common stock was $518.5 million. Six-month FY2026 net income was $429.3 million versus $261.3 million a year earlier, while free cash flow reached $160 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $79.10, NFG was near 10.65x trailing EPS, 10.4x the $7.60 FY2026 adjusted EPS midpoint, 1.97x book value, and a 2.71% dividend yield. The audited three-year model produced reference points near $76, $114, and $148 before applying wider ranges. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | NFG was almost exactly at its 50-day moving average and below its 200-day average. RSI was 53.02, and the 52-week price change was negative 3.79%, which supports a neutral rather than confirmed uptrend reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are gas price weakness, reserve impairment, interest expense, regulatory delays, project overruns, financing dilution, and a slower or more expensive Ohio utility closing. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for descriptive facts and calculations, and medium for future returns, technical timing, and the effect of the Ohio transaction on per-share value. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The assets are durable, but the stock is still exposed to commodity cycles and a financing-heavy strategic move. | Medium |
NFG AI stock forecast
The NFG AI stock forecast uses the $79.10 price, the $7.60 FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, and a three-year earnings and multiple model. The model is a way to test assumptions, not a promise that NFG will reach any price.
$135 to $150
More likely if gas prices hold above the company assumptions, production stays within the 425 to 440 Bcf range, the Tioga Pathway and Shippingport Lateral projects enter service on schedule, and the Ohio acquisition closes with manageable dilution and debt costs. The model reference is $147.60 at 9% annual EPS growth and 15x earnings.
$105 to $120
More likely if FY2026 guidance is met, regulated earnings grow, free cash flow remains positive, and the Ohio transaction adds rate base without a sharp increase in financing costs. The model reference is $114.40 at 5% annual EPS growth and 13x earnings.
$68 to $82
More likely if gas prices stay below assumptions, reserve values fall, the Ohio deal needs more equity or debt than expected, or regulatory and project delays reduce cash flow. The model reference is $76.00 with flat EPS growth and a 10x earnings multiple.
NFG AI technical analysis
NFG AI technical analysis is neutral as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. The July 10 close sat near the 50-day average, below the 200-day average, and above an RSI reading that does not show an extreme condition. These levels are reference points from the latest static market data, not guarantees of support or resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $79.10 | July 10, 2026 closing price, verified on July 11, 2026. |
| Near support | $78 to $79 | Research zone around the 50-day moving average at $79.18. A break below it would weaken short-term momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $79.18 | Latest StockAnalysis reference as of July 11, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $84.18 | The longer trend reference. NFG traded below it at the data cutoff. |
| Trend resistance | $84 to $86 | Research zone around the 200-day average. A sustained close above it would improve the trend reading. |
| Momentum | RSI 53.02 | Neutral momentum reading from the latest daily statistics. |
| Volume | 716,382 shares average over 20 days | Use volume expansion to judge whether a move through the moving averages has broad participation. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.39; 52-week change negative 3.79% | Lower beta does not remove event risk around gas prices, regulation, earnings, or financing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $76 | A research invalidation level below the recent reference zone. It is not a reported exchange support level or a personal stop order. |
NFG AI trading strategy
The NFG AI trading strategy is a rules based research framework, not personal advice. Pair any setup with live price data, natural gas prices, earnings releases, the Ohio transaction timeline, position sizing, and a defined loss limit.
Watch for NFG to reclaim the $84 to $86 area, hold above the 200-day average, and show stronger volume. A clean move should also occur without a lower earnings guide or an adverse Ohio financing update.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $79 would reduce confidence in the trend setup. A close below $76 breaks this research framework.
If NFG holds near $78 to $79, compare the dividend yield, the $7.60 adjusted EPS midpoint, gas price assumptions, and debt funding needs before treating the pullback as attractive.
Do not average down solely because the P/E ratio looks low. Commodity weakness or new equity issuance can make a low multiple persist.
Track realized gas prices, production, free cash flow, capex, utility rate cases, pipeline project milestones, Ohio closing approvals, financing terms, share count, and dividend coverage.
Lower confidence if earnings growth depends more on leverage and multiple expansion than on funded rate base growth, production economics, and free cash flow.
Investment research summary
National Fuel is paid to produce and gather natural gas, move and store it through interstate infrastructure, and deliver gas to regulated utility customers in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. The three segments reduce dependence on one source of revenue, but the upstream business remains tied to gas prices.
The durable part of the moat is physical and regulatory. National Fuel controls pipeline rights of way, storage assets, utility service territories, and a large Appalachian acreage position. Those assets are difficult to recreate, while gas production margins are more exposed to competition and oversupply.
The thesis fails if gas prices weaken enough to reduce cash flow or trigger reserve impairments, if regulators delay recovery, or if the Ohio acquisition consumes more debt and equity than planned. Project delays, cost inflation, weather, and environmental rules add to the list.
David P. Bauer became National Fuel president and CEO in 2019 after holding operating and pipeline leadership roles. The next management test is the Ohio purchase: a successful deal should expand regulated rate base without eroding per-share value through excessive financing cost or dilution.
The July 2026 EIA outlook expects US LNG exports to reach 17.0 Bcf per day in 2026 and natural gas use in electric power to rise in 2026 and 2027. That supports demand, but EIA also expects production and inventories to remain high, so demand growth does not remove commodity risk.
NFG trades at a modest earnings multiple, but the balance sheet and capital program matter. The stock was near 10.65x trailing EPS, 1.97x book value, and a 2.71% dividend yield, with about $2.40 billion of net debt on the latest twelve-month statistics. The margin of safety improves only if cash flow and the Ohio financing plan hold up.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFG closing price | $79.10 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.52 billion, verified as $79.10 x 95.04 million shares with 0.03% variance versus the reported value | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 95.04 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.278 billion, cross checked against the annual report, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | National Fuel FY2025 Form 10-K | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income available to common stock | $518.5 million, cross checked against the annual report and Macrotrends | National Fuel FY2025 Form 10-K | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating cash flow and capital spending | $1.100 billion of operating cash flow less $912.8 million of capital expenditures | National Fuel FY2025 Form 10-K | July 11, 2026 |
| Six-month FY2026 results | $429.3 million net income, $657.3 million operating cash flow, and $160 million free cash flow through March 31, 2026 | National Fuel Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $7.45 to $7.75, with a $7.60 midpoint | National Fuel Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 capital expenditure guidance | $955 million to $1.065 billion | National Fuel Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Ohio utility acquisition | $2.62 billion purchase price, about 1.6x estimated 2026 rate base, expected to close in the fourth quarter of calendar 2026 | National Fuel acquisition announcement | July 11, 2026 |
| Operating scale | About 1.2 million net Appalachian acres, 1.1 Bcf per day of net production, 77 Bcf of storage, and 756,000 utility customers | National Fuel FY2026 Q2 investor presentation | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 50-day average $79.18, 200-day average $84.18, RSI 53.02, beta 0.39, and 20-day average volume 716,382 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Natural gas industry outlook | EIA July 2026 outlook: 17.0 Bcf per day of US LNG exports in 2026 and higher electric power sector gas use in 2026 and 2027 | US Energy Information Administration STEO | July 11, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NFG. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and stated assumptions. They can be wrong, and market prices can move outside them. Verify filings, market data, gas prices, regulatory decisions, and financing terms before making any investment decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
