National Fuel Gas Company research snapshot
NFG AI stock analysis currently reads National Fuel Gas Company as an integrated natural gas business with a regulated utility and pipeline base, a large Appalachian production position, and a pending $2.62 billion Ohio utility acquisition that has cleared its final regulatory approval. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, NFG closed at $82.31 on July 31, 2026, had a verified market capitalization near $7.82 billion, and traded above its 50-day average of $78.94 but just below its 200-day average of $83.54. The revised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint is $7.50, and the three-year scenario model points to a wide range because gas prices, financing, regulation, and the Ohio transaction can change the earnings path. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$82.31 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$7.82 billion, verified from price and shares outstanding
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Integrated gas platform with regulated growth from the Ohio acquisition, still tied to gas prices and balance sheet leverage
Trend status
Neutral to constructive: price is above the 50-day average and just below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | National Fuel combines Appalachian gas production, gathering, interstate pipeline and storage assets, and regulated utility service. That mix provides more cash flow sources than a stand-alone producer, but upstream earnings still move with gas prices. | High |
| Moat | The strongest barriers are regulated service territories, pipeline rights of way, storage capacity, operating permits, and scale in the Marcellus and Utica region. The upstream business has less protection when gas supply is abundant. | High |
| Management | CEO David P. Bauer has worked across National Fuel and its pipeline businesses. Management completed the financing and obtained final approval for the $2.62 billion Ohio acquisition, so execution will be judged by closing on October 1, integration, cost discipline, and per-share earnings growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $2.51 billion and TTM net income was $675.3 million as of June 30, 2026. Third quarter fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS was $1.45 and adjusted EPS was $1.54, with $1.035 billion of operating cash flow and $280 million of free cash flow in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $82.31, NFG was near 11.4x trailing EPS, 11.0x the $7.50 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, 1.99x book value, and a 2.70% dividend yield. The three-year model produced reference points near $76, $115, and $145 before applying wider ranges. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | NFG was above its 50-day moving average and just below its 200-day average. RSI was 58.19 and the 52-week price change was negative 6.80%, which supports a neutral rather than confirmed uptrend reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are gas price weakness, reserve impairment, higher interest expense after the $1.5 billion note issuance, regulatory conditions, project delays, equity dilution, and a slower or more expensive Ohio utility integration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for descriptive facts and calculations, and medium for future returns, technical timing, and the effect of the Ohio transaction on per-share value. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The assets are durable and management guided 7% to 10% annual EPS growth through fiscal 2029, but the stock is still exposed to commodity cycles and a financing-heavy strategic move. | Medium |
NFG AI stock forecast
The NFG AI stock forecast uses the $82.31 price, the revised $7.40 to $7.60 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, and a three-year earnings and multiple model built on management guidance of 7% to 10% average annual EPS growth through fiscal 2029. The model is a way to test assumptions, not a promise that NFG will reach any price.
$138 to $152
More likely if gas prices hold near EIA assumptions, production recovers toward the 420 to 430 Bcf range, the Ohio acquisition closes on schedule and adds rate base without heavy dilution, and per-share EPS grows near the top of the 7% to 10% guidance. The model reference is about $145 at 10% annual EPS growth and a 14x to 15x multiple.
$108 to $122
More likely if fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is met, the Ohio utility is integrated as planned, regulated earnings grow, and free cash flow remains positive. The model reference is about $115 at 7% annual EPS growth and a 12x to 13x multiple.
$70 to $84
More likely if gas prices stay weak, production falls below guidance, the Ohio integration costs more than planned, or financing and dilution pressure per-share earnings. The model reference is about $76 with flat EPS and a 10x multiple.
NFG AI technical analysis
NFG AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The July 31 close sat above the 50-day average, just below the 200-day average, and below the top of the 52-week range. These levels are reference points from the latest static market data, not guarantees of support or resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $82.31 | July 31, 2026 closing price, verified on August 3, 2026. |
| Near support | $78.50 to $79.50 | Research zone around the 50-day moving average at $78.94. A break below it would weaken short-term momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $78.94 | Latest StockAnalysis reference as of August 3, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $83.54 | The longer trend reference. NFG traded just below it at the data cutoff. |
| Trend resistance | $83.50 to $86 | Research zone around the 200-day average. A sustained close above it would improve the trend reading. |
| Upper resistance | $90 to $97 | Higher reference zone toward the 52-week high of $97.06. |
| Momentum | RSI 58.19 | Neutral to slightly positive momentum reading from the latest daily statistics. |
| Volume | 700,454 shares average over 20 days | Use volume expansion to judge whether a move through the moving averages has broad participation. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.39; 52-week change negative 6.80% | Lower beta does not remove event risk around gas prices, regulation, earnings, or the Ohio closing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $75 | A research invalidation level near the 52-week low of $75.17. It is not a reported exchange support level or a personal stop order. |
NFG AI trading strategy
The NFG AI trading strategy is a rules based research framework, not personal advice. Pair any setup with live price data, natural gas prices, the October 1 Ohio closing, earnings releases, position sizing, and a defined loss limit.
Watch for NFG to reclaim the $83.50 to $86 area, hold above the 200-day average, and show stronger volume. A clean move should also occur without a lower earnings guide or an adverse Ohio integration update.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $79 would reduce confidence in the trend setup. A close below $75 breaks this research framework.
If NFG holds near $78.50 to $79.50, compare the dividend yield, the $7.50 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, gas price assumptions, and debt funding needs before treating the pullback as attractive.
Do not average down solely because the P/E ratio looks low. Commodity weakness, higher interest expense, or new equity issuance can make a low multiple persist.
Track realized gas prices, production, free cash flow, capex, utility rate cases, pipeline project milestones, the Ohio closing, integration costs, share count, and dividend coverage.
Lower confidence if earnings growth depends more on leverage and multiple expansion than on funded rate base growth, production economics, and free cash flow.
Investment research summary
National Fuel is paid to produce and gather natural gas, move and store it through interstate infrastructure, and deliver gas to regulated utility customers in western New York, northwestern Pennsylvania, and after closing, Ohio. The three segments reduce dependence on one source of revenue, but the upstream business remains tied to gas prices.
The durable part of the moat is physical and regulatory. National Fuel controls pipeline rights of way, storage assets, utility service territories, and a large Appalachian acreage position. Those assets are difficult to recreate, while gas production margins are more exposed to competition and oversupply.
The thesis fails if gas prices weaken enough to reduce cash flow or trigger reserve impairments, if the Ohio acquisition costs more than planned after the $1.5 billion note issuance, or if regulators delay recovery. Project delays, cost inflation, weather, and environmental rules add to the list.
David P. Bauer became National Fuel president and CEO in 2019 after holding operating and pipeline leadership roles. Management financed the Ohio purchase, obtained final regulatory approval, and guided 7% to 10% annual EPS growth through fiscal 2029. The test is whether the Ohio utility closes on October 1 and is integrated without eroding per-share value.
The July 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook expects US LNG exports to reach 17.4 Bcf per day in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf per day in 2027, and natural gas use in the electric power sector to rise to a record 38.1 Bcf per day in 2027. EIA projects Henry Hub prices averaging close to $3.67 per MMBtu in 2026 and just under $3.50 in 2027, so demand growth does not remove commodity risk.
NFG trades at a modest earnings multiple, but the balance sheet and capital program matter. The stock was near 11.4x trailing EPS, 1.99x book value, and a 2.70% dividend yield, with about $2.3 billion of net debt after the acquisition financing. The margin of safety improves only if cash flow and the Ohio integration hold up.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFG closing price | $82.31 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.82 billion, verified as $82.31 x 95.05 million shares with 0.03% variance versus the reported value | market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 95.05 million shares, up 2.40% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM results | $2.51 billion revenue and $675.3 million net income, or $7.20 EPS, as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis financials, based on S&P Global and Fiscal.ai | August 3, 2026 |
| Third quarter fiscal 2026 results | GAAP EPS of $1.45 and adjusted EPS of $1.54 for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 | National Fuel Q3 FY2026 earnings release, SEC Form 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Nine-month fiscal 2026 cash flow | $1.035 billion operating cash flow and $280 million free cash flow through June 30, 2026 | National Fuel Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $7.40 to $7.60, with a $7.50 midpoint and a projected 9% increase from fiscal 2025 | National Fuel Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 production and capex guidance | Production of 420 to 430 Bcf and consolidated capital expenditures of about $1.0 billion to $1.07 billion | National Fuel Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.22 per share annual rate, a 4% increase, with 124 consecutive years of dividends and 56 years of increases | National Fuel Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Ohio utility acquisition | $2.62 billion purchase price for Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio, PUCO approval on June 24, 2026, and closing on track for October 1, 2026 | National Fuel SEC Form 8-K, June 24, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Acquisition financing | $1.5 billion of senior notes issued June 2026: $500 million of 4.75% notes due 2029, $500 million of 5.05% notes due 2031, and $500 million of 5.50% notes due 2036, plus equity issuance | National Fuel SEC Form 8-K, June 10, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Long-term outlook | 7% to 10% average annual EPS growth from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2029 and $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion of free cash flow over the next three years | National Fuel Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 50-day average $78.94, 200-day average $83.54, RSI 58.19, beta 0.39, 52-week range $75.17 to $97.06, and 20-day average volume 700,454 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst view | Consensus Buy with an average 12-month price target of $91, from a range of $87 to $95 across four analysts | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Natural gas industry outlook | EIA July 2026 outlook: US LNG exports of 17.4 Bcf per day in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf per day in 2027, with Henry Hub near $3.67 per MMBtu in 2026 and just under $3.50 in 2027 | US Energy Information Administration STEO, July 7, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NFG. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and stated assumptions. They can be wrong, and market prices can move outside them. Verify filings, market data, gas prices, regulatory decisions, and financing terms before making any investment decision.
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