NCR Atleos Corporation research snapshot
NATL AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads NCR Atleos as an ATM hardware, software, ATM-as-a-Service, and network company whose near-term price path is set by the shareholder-approved Brink’s acquisition rather than by standalone fundamentals. The stock closed at $46.81 on August 3, 2026, down 0.47%, within a session range of $46.80 to $47.66, giving a market capitalization near $3.45 billion on 73.8 million shares, consistent with the price times shares calculation. Brink’s will pay $30.00 in cash plus 0.1574 Brink’s shares for each NATL share, an implied value of $50.40 at the February 2026 announcement that has since moved with the Brink’s stock price; with BCO near $116.82 on August 3, the current implied deal value is about $48.39, roughly $1.58 above the NATL close. Q1 2026 revenue, reported May 6, 2026, rose 7% year over year to $1.04 billion with 72% from recurring revenue, net income attributable to Atleos of $22 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $0.65, and adjusted EBITDA of $172 million. Analysts rate NATL Hold with a $50.27 consensus price target. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$46.81 at the August 3, 2026 close, down 0.47% from the $47.03 prior close, within a session range of $46.80 to $47.66 after opening at $47.05; real-time readings ranged from $46.77 on StockAnalysis.com to $46.85 on MarketBeat
Market cap
$3.45 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Special-situation ATM and self-service banking company in an approved but not closed cash-and-stock acquisition by Brink’s
Trend status
Trading near the 52-week high in a narrow merger-arbitrage band, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 56.8
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NCR Atleos operates self-service banking technology and ATM network services across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network (Allpoint and Cashzone), and Telecommunications & Technology. The business is shifting toward recurring service revenue, with 72% of Q1 2026 revenue recurring, but it operates with high financial leverage. | Medium |
| Moat | The Allpoint and Cashzone ATM network scale, the installed ATM base, ATM-as-a-Service contracts, and long-term financial institution relationships create moderate switching costs. Digital payment adoption and declining cash usage remain secular threats to ATM transaction volumes. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Tim Oliver, CFO Andy Wamser, and the leadership team executed the NCR spin-off, drove 7% Q1 2026 revenue growth with roughly 30% ATM-as-a-Service growth, and negotiated and secured shareholder approval of the Brink’s transaction. The standalone track record is still short. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $4.35 billion, up 1.14%, with net income of $162 million, up 102.5%, and EPS of $2.14. Q1 2026 revenue rose 7% to $1.04 billion with net income attributable to Atleos of $22 million and adjusted EBITDA of $172 million, while net leverage stood near 2.83 times and debt-to-equity near 7.43. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At the $46.81 close, NATL traded at a trailing P/E near 20.9, forward P/E near 10.3, P/S near 0.79, and EV/EBITDA near 8.0. The current implied Brink’s deal value near $48.39 sits above the market price, while the analyst consensus target is $50.27. Standalone valuation has limited meaning until the deal outcome is known. | High for math |
| Technical trend | The stock trades near its 52-week high of $48.50, above the 50-day moving average near $45.12 and the 200-day near $41.73, with 14-day RSI near 56.77, in a narrow merger-arbitrage band between the $46.80 session low and the $48.20 intraday high of July 22. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high but asymmetric. The dominant risks are deal failure, a falling Brink’s stock price that reduces the floating stock component, regulatory or financing delays beyond the expected Q1 2027 close, the high leverage, and the Altman Z-score near 1.46 that signals financial distress risk if the transaction does not close. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported facts and calculations are well supported across StockAnalysis.com, MarketBeat, the Q1 2026 earnings release, and the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q. The acquisition-dominant context means conventional equity analysis has limited predictive value until the deal outcome is known. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty for standalone equity analysis. The Brink’s acquisition creates a merger-arbitrage situation where the near-term outcome depends on regulatory approval, closing conditions, and the BCO stock price, not standalone operating fundamentals. | Low |
NATL AI stock forecast
The NATL AI stock forecast must be read through the Brink’s acquisition announced February 26, 2026, approved by shareholders June 30, 2026, cleared under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, and expected to close by the end of Q1 2027. The realized consideration is $30.00 cash plus 0.1574 Brink’s shares per NATL share, so its value floats with the BCO price, near $48.39 at the August 3 close versus $50.40 at announcement. The scenario ranges below are conditional, not price promises.
$49 to $53
More likely if the deal closes near the announced terms, the Brink’s share price recovers so the stock component is worth more, remaining regulatory approvals clear ahead of the Q1 2027 target, and the market holds the spread at or below the current implied value. A competing bid or improved terms would raise the ceiling.
$45 to $49
More likely if the acquisition progresses through remaining regulatory review and closing conditions toward Q1 2027 and the stock trades in a narrow merger-arbitrage band around the current implied deal value of about $48.39, with the spread reflecting deal probability, BCO price moves, and time to close.
$32 to $42
More likely if the Brink’s acquisition fails on regulatory, financing, or closing grounds, if the Brink’s stock falls further and reduces the floating consideration, or if a sustained delay reduces deal certainty. A failed deal would revert the stock toward the pre-announcement range near $40, with downside toward the low-$30s in a stress scenario given the high leverage.
NATL AI technical analysis
NATL AI technical analysis at the August 4, 2026 cutoff shows a stock trading in a narrow band just below its 52-week high, driven by merger-arbitrage dynamics. The August 3, 2026 close of $46.81 sits above the 50-day moving average near $45.12 and the 200-day near $41.73, with 14-day RSI near 56.77 on StockAnalysis.com.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.81 | August 3, 2026 close per StockAnalysis.com, down 0.47%, within a session range of $46.80 to $47.66 after opening at $47.05. |
| 50-day moving average | $45.12 | The 50-day moving average near $45.12 per StockAnalysis.com forms the first support cluster just below the current price. |
| Near support | $44 to $45 | The $44 to $45 zone combines the 50-day average near $45.12 with the round-number level at $44, where buyers stepped in during the late June consolidation. |
| Key support | $41.73 | The 200-day moving average near $41.73 per StockAnalysis.com is the long-term support that defines the post-spin-off uptrend. |
| Resistance | $48.20 to $48.50 | The July 22 intraday high of $48.20 and the 52-week high of $48.50 define the top of the current band. The current implied deal value near $48.39 sits inside this resistance zone. |
| Deal-value reference | About $48.39 | With BCO near $116.82, the current implied value of the $30.00 cash plus 0.1574 Brink’s shares consideration is about $48.39, computed as $30 plus 0.1574 times $116.82. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56.77 | 14-day RSI near 56.77 on StockAnalysis.com is mildly constructive rather than overbought, consistent with a stock trading in a controlled arbitrage band. |
| Volume | About 506,000 to 838,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 506,408 shares while MarketBeat reported average volume near 838,145, with the August 3 session at about 320,000 shares. |
| Volatility | Low market correlation, event-driven swings | Beta near 0.60 on StockAnalysis.com and 0.57 on MarketBeat suggests low market correlation. Volatility is more likely to spike around regulatory filings, BCO price moves, deal milestones, and the August 5, 2026 earnings report. |
| Invalidation | Close below $41.73 or sustained break above $48.50 | A sustained break below the 200-day moving average near $41.73 would signal increased deal-failure risk. A close above $48.50 would suggest improved deal terms, a competing bid, or a BCO rally lifting the floating consideration. |
NATL AI trading strategy
The NATL AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework that treats the Brink’s acquisition as the dominant variable. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live prices, regulatory filings, merger documents, Brink’s disclosures, BCO price action, position sizing, and independent review of risk.
For investors comfortable with event-driven strategies, the gap between the NATL close near $46.81 and the current implied deal value near $48.39 represents the merger-arbitrage spread, roughly 3.4%. Monitor the spread for changes in deal-completion probability, BCO price moves, and the expected Q1 2027 closing timeline.
The primary risk is deal failure or a falling BCO price that erodes the stock component. Reduce position size or exit if regulatory opposition, Brink’s financing issues, a sharp BCO decline, or material adverse changes emerge. The spread can widen sharply on negative news.
If the deal fails, NATL would revert to a standalone valuation based on its roughly $4.4 billion revenue base, about $170 million in trailing net income, $109 million in trailing free cash flow, and roughly $5.37 book value per share. A reversion toward the pre-announcement range near $40 and the high leverage would compress the multiple.
A failed deal scenario carries significant downside risk with an Altman Z-score near 1.46 and debt-to-equity near 7.43. Set a firm exit level and do not rely on a second buyer emerging. Monitor Brink’s commitment, regulatory signals, financing conditions, and BCO price action.
Track remaining regulatory approvals, the expected closing timeline by the end of Q1 2027, Brink’s financing status, the August 5, 2026 earnings report, any shareholder litigation, and the BCO share price because the stock component of the consideration floats with it.
Event-driven positions require active monitoring. Set alerts for regulatory announcements, Brink’s earnings calls, BCO price moves, and material changes to the merger agreement or timeline.
Investment research summary
NCR Atleos provides ATMs, ATM software, ATM-as-a-Service, managed services, and the Allpoint and Cashzone ATM networks to financial institutions, retailers, fintechs, and consumers, generating recurring service and transaction revenue with 72% of Q1 2026 revenue recurring.
The moat comes from the scale of the independently-owned ATM network, long-term financial institution contracts, the installed hardware base, and ATM-as-a-Service relationships. It is vulnerable to secular declines in cash usage and the rise of digital payment alternatives.
The thesis fails if the Brink’s acquisition collapses on regulatory, financing, or closing grounds, if the floating BCO stock component falls and reduces the realized consideration, if cash usage declines faster than expected, or if the high leverage and the Altman Z-score near 1.46 become restrictive in a standalone scenario.
Management executed the NCR spin-off, drove 7% Q1 2026 revenue growth with roughly 30% ATM-as-a-Service growth and 23% hardware growth, and negotiated and obtained shareholder approval of the Brink’s transaction. The standalone track record is short, and execution continuity during the acquisition process is the key question.
The ATM and self-service banking industry faces secular pressure from declining cash usage, digital wallet adoption, and branch transformation, but ATM-as-a-Service, cash recyclers, and network expansion still offer growth as financial institutions shift ATM operations to specialists. Brink’s expects the combined business to generate roughly $10 billion in revenue, about $2 billion in EBITDA, $200 million in cost synergies, and over $1 billion in annual free cash flow.
The current price reflects a narrow arbitrage discount to the current implied deal value near $48.39 rather than standalone valuation. Margin of safety depends almost entirely on deal completion and the BCO share price. Without the acquisition, the trailing P/E near 20.9 and the high leverage may not be sustainable given mid-single-digit revenue growth.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATL price and volume | $46.81 at the August 3, 2026 close, down 0.47% from the $47.03 prior close, within a session range of $46.80 to $47.66 after opening at $47.05, with real-time readings of $46.77 on StockAnalysis.com and $46.85 on MarketBeat | StockAnalysis.com history and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.45 billion, verified as $46.81 times 73.8 million shares, matching the $3.45 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com and $3.46 billion by MarketBeat | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification, StockAnalysis.com, and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 73.80 million shares outstanding, up 0.80% year over year and down 0.92% quarter over quarter, with 0.64% held by insiders and 92.26% by institutions | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | TTM revenue of $4.42 billion, up 4.25%; gross profit of $1.06 billion; operating income of $470 million; net income of $170 million; EPS of $2.24; EBITDA of $748 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $224 million, capital expenditures of negative $115 million, free cash flow of $109 million, and free cash flow per share of $1.48 over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing P/E of 20.87, forward P/E of 10.25, P/S of 0.79, P/B of 8.76, P/FCF of 31.85, P/OCF of 15.50, EV/EBITDA of 8.00, EV/Sales of 1.35, EV/FCF of 54.88 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Beta and 52-week range | Beta of 0.60, 52-week range of $30.60 to $48.50, 52-week price change of +54.74%, 50-day moving average of $45.12, 200-day moving average of $41.73, 14-day RSI of 56.77 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $433 million as of March 31, 2026; total debt of $2.94 billion per StockAnalysis.com, with $80 million short-term and $2.703 billion long-term borrowings on the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q; net cash of negative $2.51 billion or negative $34.01 per share; total stockholders equity of $396 million, book value per share of $5.37 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, StockAnalysis.com statistics, and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Leverage and credit metrics | Debt-to-equity of 7.43 per StockAnalysis.com and 6.83 per MarketBeat; net leverage ratio of 2.83 times trailing adjusted EBITDA at Q1 2026; interest coverage of 1.77; Altman Z-score of 1.46; Piotroski F-score of 6 | Q1 2026 earnings release, StockAnalysis.com, and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $4.35 billion, up 1.14% from $4.31 billion; net income of $162 million, up 102.5% from $80 million; EPS of $2.14; free cash flow of $239 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue by segment (TTM) | Self-Service Banking of $2.955 billion, Network of $1.267 billion, Telecommunications & Technology of $165 million, and Other of $31 million | StockAnalysis.com financials KPIs | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $1.04 billion, up 7% year over year with 72% recurring; Self-Service Banking up 12%, Network up 1%, T&T down 7%; net income attributable to Atleos of $22 million, up 57%; diluted EPS of $0.29; adjusted diluted EPS of $0.65; adjusted EBITDA of $172 million, flat, at a 16.5% margin; net cash used in operations of $9 million and adjusted free cash flow-unrestricted of negative $13 million | Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment adjusted EBITDA | Self-Service Banking adjusted EBITDA of $159 million at a 22.8% margin, Network of $84 million at a 27.9% margin, and T&T of $7 million at a 17.5% margin, with corporate costs of $79 million | Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 tariff and cost impact | Q1 2026 absorbed net tariff and higher memory costs of approximately $11 million, with gross margin down to 22.4% from 23.7%, while results were in line with the internal plan | Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Brink’s acquisition terms | Announced February 26, 2026; each NATL share to be exchanged for $30.00 in cash plus 0.1574 shares of Brink’s common stock, an implied value of $50.40 per share based on the Brink’s closing price of $129.58 on February 25, 2026, for a transaction valued at about $6.6 billion, a premium of roughly 20.4% over the February 26, 2026 close | NCR Atleos investor release and QuiverQuant | August 4, 2026 |
| Current implied deal value | About $48.39, computed as $30.00 in cash plus 0.1574 times the Brink’s share price of $116.82 at the August 3, 2026 close, versus $50.40 at announcement, meaning the floating stock component now adds about $18.39 per NATL share | financial_rigor.py calculation based on BCO price from StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Acquisition approval status | Shareholders of both Brink’s and NCR Atleos overwhelmingly approved the acquisition at special meetings on June 30, 2026; the transaction received clearance under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act and is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2027, subject to remaining regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions | GlobeNewswire release, QuiverQuant, and AGM 2026 transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Combined company outlook | Brink’s expects the combined company to generate about $10 billion in revenue, about $2 billion in EBITDA, $200 million in annual cost synergies, and over $1 billion in annual free cash flow, with the deal described as highly accretive and focused on rapid deleveraging | Brink’s Q4 2025 earnings call transcript via StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating with an average price target of $50.27 across 4 analysts per StockAnalysis.com, low of $50.00 and high of $50.40, with a 2.00 rating score across 6 Hold ratings per MarketBeat; price targets last updated May 11, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $4.53 billion, up 3.99%, with EPS of $4.20; FY2027 revenue estimate of $4.69 billion, up 3.63%, with EPS of $5.32, up 26.70% | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.44 million shares short, 4.67% of shares outstanding and 4.70% of float, with 4.69 days to cover, up from 2.54 million shares the prior month; MarketBeat reported 4.69% of float short with a 7.41 days-to-cover ratio | StockAnalysis.com statistics and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Key management | CEO and President Timothy C. Oliver, CFO R. Andrew Wamser Jr., COO Stuart MacKinnon, General Counsel Ricardo J. Nunez, and Chairman Joseph Reece; approximately 20,000 employees; headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent commercial news | Credit Union 1 in Alaska expanded an ATM branding agreement at Circle K stores on July 28, 2026; the Shell UK forecourt network ATM agreement was extended June 30, 2026; and a U.S. reseller collaboration with Sesami for intelligent teller cash recyclers was announced June 23, 2026 | Business Wire via StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings | Second quarter 2026 results scheduled for release before the market opens on Wednesday, August 5, 2026; the company is not hosting an earnings conference call or providing a financial outlook while the Brink’s transaction is pending | NCR Atleos investor release and Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
This NATL AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on public data available as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if the Brink’s acquisition outcome, financial results, regulatory conditions, Brink’s financing, the BCO share price, competition, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
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