McGrath RentCorp research snapshot
MGRC AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads McGrath RentCorp as an improving B2B equipment rental franchise that reported a mixed second quarter on July 29, 2026. The stock closed at $119.66 on August 3, 2026, up 4.51 or 3.92% from the $115.15 July 31 close, after opening at $116.84 and trading in a session range of $116.84 to $120.00, carrying a market capitalization near $2.92 billion, matching the $119.66 close times 24.43 million shares outstanding, with the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 24,426,000 shares as of June 30, 2026. Q2 2026 total revenues decreased 6% to $221.1 million with adjusted EBITDA down 4% to $82.8 million, because new equipment sales at Enviroplex and Mobile Modular shifted into the second half, but rental operations revenues increased 6% to $172.5 million. TRS-RenTelco rental revenues grew 17% on data center and test equipment demand, and Mobile Modular rental revenues grew 2% with utilization improving sequentially for the first time since 2022. Management narrowed 2026 revenue guidance to $955 million to $985 million and adjusted EBITDA to $363 million to $375 million, and raised gross rental equipment capital expenditure guidance to $200 million to $220 million.
Current price
$119.66 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 4.51 or 3.92% from the $115.15 July 31 close, after opening at $116.84 and trading in a session range of $116.84 to $120.00
Market cap
$2.92 billion, matching the $119.66 close times 24.43 million shares outstanding, with the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 24,426,000 shares as of June 30, 2026
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Improving rental operations with TRS-RenTelco momentum and a modular utilization inflection, offset by lumpy new equipment sales, portable storage weakness, and a premium multiple
Trend status
Constructive technical trend: the stock closed at $119.66 on August 3, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $117.26, $115.53, and $111.52, after a strong post-earnings rebound
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | McGrath RentCorp rents modular buildings, portable storage containers, and electronic test equipment through Mobile Modular, Portable Storage, TRS-RenTelco, and Enviroplex. Customers pay for access to physical assets without owning them, so revenue recurs through utilization and rental rates. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from asset intensity and the high capital barrier to entry, local service networks, switching costs in school district and construction timelines, decades of supply relationships, and the scale to serve large commercial and data center projects. | Medium |
| Management | Management executed a $725 million refinancing in May 2026, funded a small Midwest modular tuck-in acquisition that closed April 1, 2026, kept a 28-year dividend growth record alive, returned $25 million in dividends and $27 million in buybacks in the first half, and deployed $124 million into rental equipment for modular expansion and TRS demand. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 rental operations revenues increased 6% to $172.5 million, total revenues decreased 6% to $221.1 million, adjusted EBITDA decreased 4% to $82.8 million, and net income was $33.7 million or $1.37 per diluted share. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was narrowed to $955 million to $985 million and adjusted EBITDA to $363 million to $375 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $119.66, the stock trades at 19.27x trailing earnings, 18.18x forward earnings, 2.26x book value, and about 38x trailing free cash flow on the statistics basis, with a 1.66% dividend yield. The multiple is reasonable for a steady rental compounder but leaves limited margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | MGRC closed at $119.66 on August 3, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $117.26, $115.53, and $111.52, with 14-day RSI near 55.96 and a 0.42 beta, after rebounding 3.92% on above-average volume of about 311,520 shares versus a 20-day average near 165,354. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Key risks include equipment utilization decline, rental rate compression, school district budget cycles, corporate capex slowdowns, portable storage demand weakness, Enviroplex sales timing, rising debt and interest costs, and electronics test equipment obsolescence. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked financial math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the Q2 2026 earnings release and call. Medium for forward return estimates because rental demand, sales timing, and interest rates are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
MGRC AI stock forecast
The MGRC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $119.66 August 3, 2026 market close and the FY2026 consensus EPS near $6.35. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $85, a base area near $132, and a bullish area near $170 before dividends, using EPS growth of 0%, 5%, and 9% and exit multiples of 14x, 18x, and 20x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$155 to $185
More likely if TRS-RenTelco keeps growing rental revenue in the high teens on data center and semiconductor demand, modular utilization keeps rising with bookings growth, Enviroplex returns to 2024-level sales, and the market re-rates the stock toward 20x forward earnings.
$120 to $145
More likely if MGRC compounds EPS at a mid single-digit rate, modular rental recovery continues gradually, portable storage stabilizes, new equipment sale timing normalizes, and the stock holds near an 18x forward multiple.
$75 to $100
More likely if a construction recession cuts school and corporate budgets, utilization and rental rates decline, portable storage weakens further, Enviroplex sales stay lumpy, interest costs compress margins, or the multiple compresses toward 14x.
MGRC AI technical analysis
MGRC AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $119.66 on August 3, 2026, up 4.51 or 3.92% from the $115.15 July 31 close, after opening at $116.84 and trading in a session range of $116.84 to $120.00. The 5-day and 20-day moving averages were recomputed near $117.36 and $117.26 from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing price history through August 3, and the 50-day and 200-day values near $115.53 and $111.52 come from the StockAnalysis.com statistics page, with 14-day RSI near 55.96 and a 0.42 beta. After the July 29 earnings report the stock dipped to a $115.00 close on July 30, then rebounded to $119.66 on August 3 on volume near 311,520 shares, well above the 20-day average near 165,354.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $119.66 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 4.51 or 3.92% from the $115.15 July 31 close after opening at $116.84 and trading in a session range of $116.84 to $120.00. |
| 5-day moving average | $117.36 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, just below the current price, which signals short-term momentum after the post-earnings rebound. |
| 20-day moving average | $117.26 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, an immediate support reference for pullbacks. |
| Near support | $115 to $117 | The 20-day moving average near $117.26 and the 50-day moving average near $115.53 form the first support cluster below the August 3 close. |
| Major support | $111.52 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $111.52 on August 3, 2026. Holding above it keeps the intermediate trend intact. |
| Near resistance | $121.69 to $125.83 | The one-month high near $121.69 set on July 28 and the June high near $125.83 form the first resistance zone above the current price. |
| Major resistance | $127.68 | The 52-week high near $127.68 is the key upside level. A close above it would open a new high range. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55.96 | The 14-day RSI was near 55.96 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, moderately bullish and not overbought. |
| Volume | About 165,354 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 165,354 shares on August 3, 2026. The August 3 session showed about 311,520 shares, well above average, confirming buying interest in the rebound. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.42, low by market standards | The low beta fits the rental asset business model. Expect smaller drawdowns and rallies than the broad market, with the recent swing near earnings as the main exception. |
| Invalidation | Close below $111.52 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $111.52 would weaken the intermediate trend; a break below the $94.99 52-week low would signal a more serious deterioration. |
MGRC AI trading strategy
The MGRC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It connects price action with rental utilization, equipment capex, end-market trends, school construction budgets, portable storage demand, dividend coverage, and electronics test equipment cycles.
Watch for MGRC to reclaim and hold above the $121.69 to $125.83 resistance zone on above-average volume while quarterly results confirm rental revenue growth, modular utilization improvement, TRS-RenTelco momentum, and no margin compression.
Treat a failed move above resistance or a close back below the 20-day moving average near $117.26 as evidence that the stock remains range-bound and the breakout lacks confirmation.
If MGRC pulls back toward the $111.52 to $115.53 moving average cluster without a utilization or dividend reset, compare the new price with book value per share near $50.99, free cash flow, replacement cost of rental assets, and management capex guidance for the coming quarters.
Do not average down on yield alone. Require evidence that utilization, rental rates, and operating margins support the dividend without balance-sheet strain.
Track quarterly rental revenue by segment, fleet utilization, total capex versus depreciation, operating cash flow, dividend payout ratio, funded debt to adjusted EBITDA, and interest coverage. Watch school district funding bills, data center buildout, and corporate capex surveys for leading signals.
Lower confidence if mobile modular utilization turns down again, portable storage utilization stays below about 58%, funded debt to adjusted EBITDA rises above 2.5x, or dividend payout ratio exceeds 75% of operating cash flow.
Investment research summary
Customers pay MGRC for access to modular buildings, storage containers, and electronic test equipment on a rental basis, avoiding large capital outlays for assets they need temporarily or periodically, while Enviroplex sells portable classrooms to California school districts.
MGRC builds its moat on asset intensity, local service networks, customer switching costs, and decades of supply relationships. Rental fleets need years and large capex to build, and regional delivery and logistics limit competitive entry.
The thesis fails if a construction recession cuts school and corporate budgets, rental rates compress across segments, mobile modular utilization turns back down, portable storage demand keeps fading, Enviroplex sales stay lumpy, interest costs rise on the $589.9 million debt load, or electronics test equipment becomes obsolete faster than expected.
Management is judged on fleet maintenance and capital allocation, the $725 million May 2026 refinancing, the small Midwest modular tuck-in acquisition that closed April 1, 2026, dividend consistency, buyback discipline, and asset utilization across varied end-market cycles.
B2B equipment rental benefits from a secular preference for asset-light operations across education, construction, and technology. The shift from owning to renting is a structural tailwind, while data center buildout is driving electronic test equipment demand at TRS-RenTelco, but portable storage faces weak small commercial construction demand.
At $119.66, MGRC trades at 19.27x trailing earnings and about 18.18x forward earnings with a modest dividend yield. Margin of safety is limited at the current price. The base-case three-year scenario points to $120 to $145, suggesting moderate upside but not deep value.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGRC price | $119.66 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 4.51 or 3.92% from the $115.15 July 31 close, after opening at $116.84 and trading in a session range of $116.84 to $120.00 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.92 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3 market close and matching the $119.66 price times 24.43 million shares, with the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 24,426,000 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total revenue | $221.1 million, a decrease of 6% from $235.6 million in Q2 2025, with rental operations revenue up 6% to $172.5 million and sales revenue down 34% to $46.4 million | Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | Net income of $33.7 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, compared to net income of $36.0 million, or $1.46 per diluted share, in Q2 2025, versus consensus EPS of $1.46 | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and analyst consensus | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $82.8 million, a decrease of 4% from $86.5 million in Q2 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margin near 37% | Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment rental revenue | TRS-RenTelco rental revenues up 17% to $31.8 million, Mobile Modular rental revenues up 2% to about $82 million, Portable Storage rental revenues flat near $17 million, and TRS utilization ending the quarter at 68.9%, the highest since Q1 2021 | Q2 2026 earnings call and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Total revenue narrowed to $955 million to $985 million from $945 million to $995 million, adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $363 million to $375 million from $360 million to $378 million, and gross rental equipment capital expenditures raised to $200 million to $220 million from $180 million to $200 million | Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of $944.24 million, up 3.65%, and net income of $156.31 million, down 32.55%, with the decline reflecting one-time gains in FY2024 including a $180 million WillScot Mobile Mini merger termination fee and the Adler Tanks divestiture | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2024 net income | FY2024 net income of $231.73 million, or $9.43 per share, included roughly $242.9 million of non-operating income from the Adler Tanks divestiture and the WillScot Mobile Mini merger termination fee | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | Trailing twelve months through June 30, 2026: revenue of $932.86 million, net income of $152.83 million, and EPS of $6.21 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $251.68 million and free cash flow of $76.22 million using $175.47 million of capital expenditures on the StockAnalysis.com statistics basis, versus negative free cash flow of $6.86 million using $258.54 million of capital expenditures on the StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement basis | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 rental equipment capex | Rental equipment acquisitions of $131.4 million in the first half of 2026 versus $53.5 million a year ago, per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, supporting modular geographic expansion and TRS demand | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $4.4 million, notes payable of $589.9 million, total liabilities of $1,257.6 million, shareholders equity of $1,245.5 million, and total assets of $2,503.0 million as of June 30, 2026, with funded debt to LTM adjusted EBITDA near 1.65x | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| May 2026 refinancing | On May 8, 2026, the Company entered into an amended and restated credit agreement providing a $725.0 million unsecured revolving credit facility, expandable to $950.0 million, replacing the prior facility | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 19.27x trailing earnings, 18.18x forward earnings, 2.26x book value, 38.20x trailing free cash flow on the statistics basis, and a 1.66% dividend yield at the $119.66 price | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $145.40, up 21.51% from the August 3 close, with a low target of $140 and a high target of $150, including Oppenheimer Buy $143 and Barclays Buy $140 on July 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $963.22 million with EPS near $6.35, and FY2027 revenue estimate of $1.01 billion with EPS near $6.95 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.495 per share, annualized $1.98, with a 1.66% yield, a 31.88% payout ratio, 28 years of dividend growth, and an ex-dividend date of July 17, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $94.99 to $127.68, year-to-date up about 14% from the $104.93 December 31, 2025 close, and beta of 0.42 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 453,372 shares short, or 1.86% of shares outstanding, about 1.97 days to cover, down from 506,504 shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $117.36 and 20-day moving average near $117.26 recomputed from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day moving average near $115.53 and 200-day moving average near $111.52 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 55.96, and 20-day average volume near 165,354 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
This MGRC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a rating from a licensed adviser, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff and may be wrong if equipment utilization, rental rates, interest rates, acquisition integration, school budgets, data center capex, or market sentiment change.
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