Medpace Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
MEDP AI stock analysis currently reads Medpace Holdings, Inc. as a focused clinical research organization with strong first-quarter revenue growth, net cash, and a founder-led operating model. The trade-off is a premium valuation, a first-quarter 2026 book-to-bill ratio below 1.0x, customer concentration, and the possibility that trial cancellations or a slower biotech funding cycle weaken backlog conversion. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, the latest verifiable July 9 intraday price was $534.89 and price multiplied by 28.56 million shares produced market capitalization near $15.28 billion. The MEDP AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$534.89
Market cap
$15.28 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality CRO, but valuation and backlog conversion need scrutiny
Trend status
Constructive long-term trend, with a volatile earnings-sensitive setup
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Medpace provides Phase I through IV clinical-development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical-device customers through an integrated full-service CRO model. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on therapeutic expertise, integrated clinical operations, regulatory know-how, investigator relationships, data processes, and switching friction once a trial is underway, but larger CROs remain credible competitors. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO August Troendle remains central to the operating culture and owns meaningful equity. The benefit is alignment; the risk is key-person concentration and limited outside perspective. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose 26.5% to $706.6 million, while GAAP net income rose 8.1% to $123.9 million. TTM revenue and free cash flow were $2.68 billion and $711 million in the latest independent snapshot. | High |
| Valuation | financial_rigor.py calculated 33.64x TTM EPS, 21.48x free cash flow per share, and a 4.66% free-cash-flow yield at $534.89. The Q1 guidance midpoint implies about 31.3x FY2026 GAAP EPS. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The July 9 snapshot placed MEDP above its 50-day average but only modestly above its 200-day average, with RSI near 63. Price action is constructive but highly exposed to earnings and contract-award updates. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because a concentrated CRO can face trial cancellations, award volatility, client budget pressure, competition for talent, data and compliance obligations, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials, guidance, share count, and market-cap math. Medium for forecasts because the key variables are future bookings, cancellation behavior, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business has a credible operating record, yet the price leaves less room for mistakes if the conversion of backlog to revenue slows. | Medium |
MEDP AI stock forecast
The MEDP AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the latest verifiable $534.89 July 9 price rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using the $17.09 midpoint of Medpace FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance produced mechanical three-year values near $1,010.90 in a bull case, $682.40 in a base case, and $343.10 in a bear case. Those outputs are valuation scenarios, not promises.
$682 to $1,011
More likely if biotech and pharma development spending stays healthy, awards and book-to-bill recover, backlog converts without unusual cancellations, margins hold, and the market keeps a premium multiple for Medpace execution.
$535 to $682
More likely if revenue lands near the $2.755 billion to $2.855 billion 2026 guidance range, net income follows the $487 million to $511 million range, and bookings normalize without a major multiple change.
$343 to $535
More likely if the sub-1.0x book-to-bill ratio persists, cancellations rise, biotech funding or client budgets weaken, utilization falls, or investors re-rate MEDP closer to a lower-growth CRO multiple.
MEDP AI technical analysis
MEDP AI technical analysis uses the latest verifiable July 9, 2026 intraday snapshot at $534.89. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $460.62, a 200-day moving average of $514.73, RSI of 63.33, and 20-day average volume of 326,236 shares. This static page does not fetch request-time prices, so confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $534.89 | StockAnalysis intraday snapshot at 12:15 PM EDT on July 9, 2026. The July 11 cutoff is after the latest verified market snapshot. |
| Near support | $515 to $535 | The 200-day moving average was $514.73. Holding the area around the latest price and the long-term average supports the current trend structure. |
| Near resistance | $565 to $629 | A July 6 quote snapshot showed $565.09 and a 52-week high of $628.92. These are reference zones, not guaranteed barriers. |
| 50-day moving average | About $460.62 | StockAnalysis snapshot around the cutoff. Price was above this short-to-medium-term trend reference. |
| 200-day moving average | About $514.73 | StockAnalysis snapshot around the cutoff. The small distance above this average increases the importance of a confirmed hold. |
| Momentum | Positive but extended | RSI was 63.33, below the conventional overbought threshold but high enough that earnings volatility can reverse the move quickly. |
| Volume | About 326K shares, 20-day average | Use volume confirmation on a move through resistance because MEDP has a relatively small public float and can gap around results. |
| Volatility | Above-market beta, 1.15 | The StockAnalysis snapshot placed the five-year beta at 1.15. Earnings, award data, and client-trial news can create gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained break below about $515 | A decisive loss of the 200-day average alongside weaker bookings or guidance would weaken a trend-following thesis. |
MEDP AI trading strategy
The MEDP AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a clinical-research stock with concentrated operational and earnings risk. It is not personalized advice. Use position sizing, a written invalidation level, the earnings calendar, and updated data before making a decision.
Monitor whether MEDP holds above the $515 200-day area and then clears the $565 reference zone with volume above its recent average. Check that bookings, backlog conversion, and 2026 guidance are not deteriorating.
Invalidate the setup on a sustained break below the 200-day average, a material guidance reduction, or evidence that cancellations or awards weaken the revenue outlook.
After a pullback, look for price stabilization near $515 only if the operating facts remain intact: net cash, healthy cash conversion, a credible award pipeline, and no adverse change in customer demand.
Do not average down simply because the share price falls. Reassess if the fall accompanies a lower book-to-bill ratio, a backlog decline, or reduced profitability guidance.
Track revenue growth, net new business awards, book-to-bill, backlog, cancellation commentary, EBITDA margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow, share count, and the next earnings release scheduled for July 22, 2026.
Reduce confidence if growth depends on one-off conversion, if cash conversion fades, or if a premium earnings multiple rises while award momentum slows.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Medpace to design and run clinical trials, coordinate sites and data, and navigate development work that is expensive, regulated, and difficult to execute internally.
Medpace combines therapeutic expertise, a full-service model, investigator and site relationships, regulatory processes, and operational data. Switching is costly once a trial is active, although major CRO peers compete for the same work.
The failure path is paying a premium multiple just as awards or biotech budgets cool. Cancellations rise, the sub-1.0x book-to-bill ratio persists, utilization weakens, and the market decides that historical execution does not justify the multiple.
Founder-led ownership provides alignment and a consistent operating culture. It also makes succession, governance independence, and capital allocation discipline central questions for a long-duration owner.
Drug and device development creates long-run demand for specialized trial execution, but the cycle depends on research budgets, biotech financing, regulation, site capacity, and the pace at which sponsors start new programs.
The price reflects a company with strong execution and cash generation. At roughly 33.6x TTM EPS, the margin of safety depends on sustained award quality, conversion, and profitability rather than on a low starting multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEDP price | $534.89 at July 9, 2026 12:15 PM EDT | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.28 billion, price times 28.56M shares | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $706.6 million, up 26.5% year over year | Medpace Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP net income | $123.9 million, or $4.28 diluted EPS | Medpace Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 backlog and awards | $2.929 billion backlog; $618.4M awards; 0.88x book-to-bill | Medpace Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $652.7M cash; $146.1M debt; about $506.6M net cash | Medpace Q1 release and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | $2.755B to $2.855B revenue; $16.68 to $17.50 GAAP EPS | Medpace Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $711.0 million, or $24.90 per share | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MEDP. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and stated assumptions. They can be wrong, and prices, technical levels, estimates, and company conditions can change quickly.
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