Medpace Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
MEDP AI stock analysis reads Medpace Holdings, Inc. as a focused clinical research organization that delivered record net bookings, lower cancellations, and raised 2026 guidance in its July 22, 2026 Q2 report. The trade-off is a premium valuation, a securities litigation overhang from the earlier cancellation-rate disclosure, customer concentration, and the chance that future awards or trial cancellations disappoint again. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $577.11 on July 31, 2026, and price multiplied by 27.91 million shares produced market capitalization near $16.11 billion. The MEDP AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$577.11
Market cap
$16.11 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Record bookings and raised guidance, but a rich multiple and litigation overhang
Trend status
Constructive after a post-earnings rally to a new 52-week high, with a pullback off that peak
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Medpace provides Phase I through IV clinical-development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical-device customers through an integrated full-service CRO model. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on therapeutic expertise, integrated clinical operations, regulatory know-how, investigator relationships, data processes, and switching friction once a trial is underway, but larger CROs remain credible competitors. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO August Troendle remains central to the operating culture and owns meaningful equity, with CFO Kevin Brady on the financial side. Alignment is high, but key-person concentration and insider sells near the rally warrant monitoring. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 17.2% to $707.3 million and net income rose 34.5% to $121.4 million, with record net bookings of $795.7 million, a 1.13x book-to-bill, and raised 2026 guidance. | High |
| Valuation | financial_rigor.py calculated 33.83x TTM EPS, 31.53x forward EPS, and 22.79x free cash flow per share at $577.11. The raised FY2026 EPS guidance midpoint of $17.60 implies about 32.8x forward earnings. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $577.11 sat above the 50-day average near $504.31 and the 200-day average near $518.04, with RSI near 61, after a post-earnings rally to a new 52-week high of $677.90. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because a concentrated CRO can face trial cancellations, award volatility, client budget pressure, securities litigation, competition for talent, data and compliance obligations, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported Q2 results, guidance, share count, technical indicators, and market-cap math. Medium for forecasts because the key variables are future bookings, cancellation behavior, litigation, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The operating record and balance sheet are well documented, yet the price leaves less room for mistakes if the conversion of backlog to revenue slows or the multiple resets. | Medium |
MEDP AI stock forecast
The MEDP AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the latest verifiable $577.11 July 31 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using the $17.60 midpoint of Medpace raised FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance produced mechanical three-year values near $856.60 in a bull case, $632.50 in a base case, and $384.60 in a bear case. Those outputs are valuation scenarios, not promises.
$690 to $860
More likely if net bookings stay at or above record levels, cancellations remain low, oncology demand holds, revenue and EBITDA land at the top of raised guidance and beyond, client funding stays broad, and the market keeps a premium multiple for Medpace execution.
$595 to $670
More likely if revenue lands near the raised $2.805 billion to $2.885 billion 2026 range, EPS follows the $17.25 to $17.95 range, book-to-bill stays around 1.1x, and the earnings multiple holds near current forward levels.
$350 to $420
More likely if cancellations spike again, book-to-bill falls back below 1.0x, biotech funding or client budgets weaken, the litigation overhang grows, utilization falls, or investors re-rate MEDP closer to a lower-growth CRO multiple.
MEDP AI technical analysis
MEDP AI technical analysis uses the latest verifiable July 31, 2026 close at $577.11. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $504.31, a 200-day moving average of $518.04, RSI of 61.08, and 20-day average volume of 394,087 shares. This static page does not fetch request-time prices, so confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $577.11 | Close on July 31, 2026. The August 2 cutoff is after the latest verified market snapshot. |
| Near support | $504 to $518 | The 50-day average near $504.31 and the 200-day average near $518.04 form the support band. Holding this area supports the recovery structure. |
| Near resistance | $617 to $678 | The post-earnings high near $617 and the 52-week high of $677.90 are reference zones, not guaranteed barriers. |
| 50-day moving average | About $504.31 | StockAnalysis snapshot around the cutoff. Price was above this short-to-medium-term trend reference. |
| 200-day moving average | About $518.04 | StockAnalysis snapshot around the cutoff. The moderate distance above this average increases the importance of a confirmed hold. |
| Momentum | Positive but not extended | RSI was 61.08, below the conventional overbought threshold, so momentum supports the recovery while leaving room for earnings and award volatility. |
| Volume | About 394K shares, 20-day average | Volume expanded on the post-earnings rally. Confirm any move through resistance with volume because MEDP has a relatively small float and can gap around results. |
| Volatility | Above-market beta, 1.15 | The StockAnalysis snapshot placed the five-year beta at 1.15. Earnings, award data, litigation news, and client-trial news can create gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained break below about $518 | A decisive loss of the 200-day average alongside weaker bookings or guidance would weaken the recovery thesis. |
MEDP AI trading strategy
The MEDP AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a clinical-research stock with concentrated operational, earnings, and litigation risk. It is not personalized advice. Use position sizing, a written invalidation level, the earnings calendar, and updated data before making a decision.
Monitor whether MEDP holds above the $518 200-day area and then reclaims the $617 post-earnings zone with volume above its recent average. Check that bookings, backlog conversion, and raised 2026 guidance are not deteriorating.
Invalidate the setup on a sustained break below the 200-day average, a material guidance reduction, or evidence that cancellations or awards weaken the revenue outlook.
After a pullback, look for price stabilization near the $504 to $518 band only if the operating facts remain intact: net cash, healthy cash conversion, a credible award pipeline, book-to-bill near 1.1x, and no adverse change in cancellation behavior or demand.
Do not average down simply because the share price falls. Reassess if the fall accompanies a lower book-to-bill ratio, a backlog decline, new litigation development, or reduced profitability guidance.
Track revenue growth, net new business awards, book-to-bill, backlog and its 12-month conversion near $1.96 billion, cancellation commentary, EBITDA margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow, share count, insider sells, litigation status, and the next earnings release.
Reduce confidence if growth depends on one-off conversion, if cash conversion fades, if the litigation overhang grows, or if a premium earnings multiple rises while award momentum slows.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Medpace to design and run clinical trials, coordinate sites and data, and navigate development work that is expensive, regulated, and difficult to execute internally.
Medpace combines therapeutic expertise, a full-service model, investigator and site relationships, regulatory processes, and operational data. Switching is costly once a trial is active, although major CRO peers compete for the same work.
The failure path is paying a premium multiple just as awards or biotech budgets cool again. Cancellations rise, book-to-bill falls back below 1.0x, the litigation overhang grows, utilization weakens, and the market decides that historical execution does not justify the multiple.
Founder-led ownership provides alignment and a consistent operating culture. It also makes succession, governance independence, and capital allocation discipline central questions, and insider sells near the rally deserve monitoring.
Drug and device development creates long-run demand for specialized trial execution, and oncology has returned to more than half of Q2 2026 bookings. The cycle still depends on research budgets, biotech financing, regulation, site capacity, and the pace at which sponsors start new programs.
The price reflects a company with strong execution, record bookings, and cash generation. At roughly 33.8x TTM EPS and 31.5x forward EPS, the margin of safety depends on sustained award quality, conversion, and profitability rather than on a low starting multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEDP price | $577.11 at July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $16.11 billion, price times 27.91M shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $707.3 million, up 17.2% year over year; H1 $1.41 billion, up 21.7% | Medpace Q2 2026 results | July 22, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP net income | $121.4 million, or $4.25 diluted EPS, up 34.5% | Medpace Q2 2026 results | July 22, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 backlog and awards | About $3.0 billion backlog, up 4.9%; $795.7M net new awards, up 28.2%; 1.13x book-to-bill | Medpace Q2 2026 results | July 22, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $502.7M cash; $144.1M debt; about $358.6M net cash | Medpace Q2 release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Raised 2026 guidance | $2.805B to $2.885B revenue; $17.25 to $17.95 GAAP EPS; $618M to $642M EBITDA | Medpace Q2 2026 results | July 22, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $2.78 billion revenue, up 24.7%; $491.50 million net income; $17.06 EPS | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $706.69 million, or $25.32 per share | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 61.08, 50-day SMA $504.31, 200-day SMA $518.04, beta 1.15 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $373.00 to $677.90, with a 52-week change of +31.83% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average target $581.83 from 13 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MEDP. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and stated assumptions. They can be wrong, and prices, technical levels, estimates, company conditions, and litigation status can change quickly.
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