Mobileye Global Inc. research snapshot
MBLY AI stock analysis views Mobileye as an established ADAS and autonomous-driving technology provider with a large installed base, a large driving-data network, and a growing premium-product pipeline. Q2 2026 revenue of $508 million was roughly flat against the strongest 2025 quarter, adjusted operating income rose 46% year over year to $155 million, adjusted operating margin reached 31%, and the company raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted operating income guidance. The reported TTM GAAP loss is dominated by the Q1 non-cash goodwill impairment, so the MBLY AI stock forecast should separate operating recovery from accounting noise. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest source-backed close was $7.94 on July 31 and market capitalization was about $6.75 billion using 850.19 million shares. Two developments shape the outlook: founder and CEO Amnon Shashua announced he will step down once a successor is appointed, and Mobileye plans a vertically integrated robotaxi offering targeting a 2027 U.S. launch. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$7.94 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
About $6.75 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Improving ADAS operator with strong cash flow and raised guidance, offset by CEO transition, robotaxi capex, and a weak technical setup
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day averages, with weak momentum and a 52-week decline of about 43%
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mobileye sells EyeQ chips, software, and higher-value ADAS and autonomous-driving systems to OEMs, mainly through Tier 1 suppliers. Its installed base and safety qualification history are meaningful assets. | High |
| Moat | Real-world driving data, REM mapping, validation experience, OEM qualification, and semiconductor-software integration create barriers, but automakers and rival chip and autonomy platforms retain bargaining power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO Amnon Shashua remains deeply involved in the technology roadmap but announced on July 23, 2026 that he will step down once a successor is appointed. The Mentee and robotaxi initiatives create related-party, dilution, and capital-allocation questions. | Medium-low |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 14.5% to $1.894 billion with operating cash flow of $602 million. Q2 2026 adjusted operating income rose 46% to $155 million and adjusted margin reached 31%, but TTM GAAP results still include the large Q1 goodwill impairment. | High |
| Valuation | At $7.94, the tool calculated 16.54x derived adjusted TTM EPS and 17.26x TTM free cash flow, with forward PE of 18.98 reported by StockAnalysis. GAAP PE is not meaningful because reported earnings are negative. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The price was below both the cited 50-day average of $9.22 and the 200-day average of $9.84. RSI at 40.99 was weak, leaving the chart in a downtrend rather than a confirmed recovery. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because of OEM production cycles, China exposure, program timing, autonomous-driving regulation, Intel voting control, CEO succession, robotaxi capital needs, Mentee integration, dilution, and a history of goodwill impairments. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the source-backed operating and balance-sheet record. Medium for future returns because new product mix, robotaxi adoption, customer volumes, and investor multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business has a credible technology base and improving cash generation, but the stock needs sustained execution and better product mix while public shareholders have limited governance influence. | Medium-low |
MBLY AI stock forecast
The MBLY AI stock forecast uses a three-year mechanical sensitivity around the $7.94 July 31 close. Using a derived $0.48 adjusted TTM EPS proxy, the financial_rigor.py model produced about $29.50 in a bull case, $16.10 in a base case, and $4.90 in a bear case. These are scenario outputs, not price promises or analyst targets.
$27 to $32 over 3 years
More likely if EyeQ6, Surround ADAS, SuperVision, Chauffeur, and Drive programs convert into production volume, adjusted margins hold, the pipeline matures, and the robotaxi and Mentee initiatives add revenue without diluting returns.
$14 to $18 over 3 years
More likely if revenue grows at a moderate pace, adjusted earnings recover, cash generation remains positive, but OEM price pressure, Intel control, robotaxi capex, stock compensation, and uncertain autonomy timing keep the terminal multiple near 22x.
$4 to $6 over 3 years
More likely if OEM production weakens, China export demand softens, design wins fail to reach volume, robotaxi expansion consumes cash without returns, premium-system margins compress, or the market assigns a lower multiple to negative GAAP earnings.
MBLY AI technical analysis
MBLY AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 static data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $7.94 July 31 close, a 50-day moving average of $9.22, a 200-day moving average of $9.84, RSI of 40.99, and 20-day average volume of about 8.57 million shares. Confirm live chart data before acting because this page has no request-time market-data calls.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $7.94 close on July 31, 2026 | Latest source-backed regular-session close available at the data cutoff. |
| Near support | $7.33 to $7.61 | Uses the July 23 post-earnings low and the July 31 day low as reference points, not guaranteed floors. |
| Near resistance | $9.22 to $9.84 | The 50-day average comes first, with the 200-day average as the broader trend resistance. A sustained close above both would improve the intermediate chart structure. |
| Longer resistance | $15.81 52-week high | This is a wide historical reference and should not be treated as a forecast destination. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $9.22 and 200-day $9.84 | Price below both averages indicates a downtrend. A reclaim of the 50-day would be the first constructive signal. |
| Momentum | Weak, RSI 40.99 | The cited RSI is below the midpoint. Read it with price structure, volume, and earnings revisions. |
| Volume | About 8.57 million shares average volume | StockAnalysis 20-day average volume snapshot. Use fresh volume data to test breakouts or breakdowns. |
| Volatility | Elevated, beta 1.16 and 52-week change -43.08% | The large 52-week range of $6.47 to $15.81 makes position sizing and event risk important. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $7.33, then $6.47 | A loss of the recent support reference would weaken the base-building attempt and require a fresh thesis review. |
MBLY AI trading strategy
This MBLY AI trading strategy is an educational framework, not personalized investment advice. It links price and volume with EyeQ shipments, OEM production, product mix, cash flow, robotaxi capex, CEO succession, Mentee integration, and Intel-related governance risk.
Wait for a sustained close above the $9.84 200-day average with supportive volume, then check whether the move is backed by H2 results, product shipments, and continued guidance execution rather than only a short squeeze.
Define invalidation before any trade. A failed breakout or close back below $9.22 weakens the setup and calls for a new review.
Treat $7.33 to $7.61 as a watch zone only if selling pressure eases and the operating thesis remains intact. A lower price is not automatically better value when product, OEM, or robotaxi risks are worsening.
A sustained close below $7.33 invalidates this setup. Use position size that can tolerate earnings, automotive-cycle, and event volatility.
Track EyeQ unit shipments, advanced-product revenue, adjusted gross margin, OEM design wins reaching production, cash flow, share-based compensation, the buyback, robotaxi milestones, CEO succession, Intel ownership, and China export demand.
Revisit the thesis if pipeline conversion, adjusted margin, cash generation, or customer volumes deteriorate, or if robotaxi capex outruns returns. Do not rely on the chart alone.
Investment research summary
Mobileye sells the hardware, software, mapping, and safety systems that help automakers add driver assistance and autonomous-driving features without building the full technology stack internally. Most revenue comes from EyeQ SoCs sold to OEMs through Tier 1 suppliers, while newer full-system products can raise revenue per vehicle.
The moat combines more than 250 million units of product delivered, roughly 1,400 vehicle models, relationships with more than 50 OEMs, large real-world driving datasets, REM mapping, validation know-how, and long OEM qualification cycles. It is meaningful, but chip, software, and vehicle makers can still exert pricing and strategic pressure.
The thesis fails if OEM production or China export demand weakens, design wins do not reach volume, customers keep using lower-priced products, premium systems reduce percentage margins, autonomy regulation delays adoption, or robotaxi and Mentee absorb cash and management attention without useful returns. The Q1 goodwill impairment also shows that expectations can reset sharply.
Founder and CEO Amnon Shashua has led Mobileye for 27 years and announced on July 23, 2026 that he will step down once a successor is appointed, with the board forming a search committee. The Mentee deal was a $900 million transaction with related-party governance questions, and the new vertically integrated robotaxi plan introduces material capital allocation and key-person questions.
More safety regulation, higher ADAS penetration, software-defined vehicles, robotaxi development, and growing compute content support a long-term industry opportunity. Full autonomy and robotaxi economics remain dependent on regulation, consumer trust, vehicle costs, and proof that the systems can scale safely and profitably.
At $7.94, the financial_rigor.py calculation used a derived adjusted TTM EPS proxy of $0.48 and produced 16.54x earnings, 0.81x book value, and 17.26x free cash flow. The stock is not expensive on cash flow alone, but the weak GAAP earnings record, dilution, Intel control, CEO transition, and uncertain product mix reduce the margin of safety.
FY2025 revenue of $1.894 billion, the FY2025 net loss of $392 million, and FY2025 operating cash flow of $602 million were cross-validated between the SEC 10-K, StockAnalysis, and the results history. Q2 2026 revenue of $508 million and adjusted operating income of $155 million matched across the earnings call and press reports. Market-cap math used $7.94 multiplied by 850.19 million shares and matched the reported $6.75 billion within 0.01%.
For a long-term owner, the central question is whether Mobileye can convert its installed base and data advantage into higher-value products with durable margins before automotive cycles, CEO transition, robotaxi capex, or Intel supply and governance decisions dominate the outcome. The thesis should be updated after the next earnings release, the CEO successor appointment, and each major design-win or robotaxi milestone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue | $1.894 billion, up 14.5% year over year | Mobileye 2025 Form 10-K, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and operating cash flow | GAAP net loss of $392 million; operating cash flow of $602 million | Mobileye 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis cash flow | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $558 million revenue, $95 million adjusted operating income, and a $3.788 billion non-cash goodwill impairment | Mobileye Q1 2026 results release and Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | $508 million revenue, $155 million adjusted operating income up 46% year over year, 31% adjusted operating margin, and adjusted EPS of $0.19 | Mobileye Q2 2026 results release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance raised | Revenue of $1.97 billion to $2.02 billion and adjusted operating income of $365 million to $425 million, up from the prior $185 million to $235 million outlook | Mobileye Q2 2026 results release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | $1.443 billion cash and short-term investments and roughly $1.44 billion net cash in the June 27, 2026 snapshot | Mobileye Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares and market capitalization | 850.19 million shares; $7.94 multiplied by shares equals about $6.75 billion, with 0.01% verification variance | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Adjusted EPS proxy used in scenarios | $0.48 derived from FY2025 adjusted EPS of about $0.35, plus H1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.31, minus H1 2025 adjusted EPS of about $0.18; includes the Israel R&D credit benefit | Mobileye FY2025 and Q2 2026 earnings releases; Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technology and installed base | More than 250 million units delivered, about 1,400 vehicle models, more than 50 OEM relationships, and about 10 million EyeQ units shipped in Q2 2026 | Mobileye Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis profile | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $9.22, 200-day average $9.84, RSI 40.99, beta 1.16, and 20-day average volume 8.57 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Intel control, CEO transition, and robotaxi plan | Intel held about 77% of outstanding shares and about 96.9% of voting power; Amnon Shashua announced he will step down once a successor is appointed; Mobileye plans a vertically integrated robotaxi launch in 2027 | Mobileye 2025 Form 10-K, Q2 2026 earnings call, and leadership transition release | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Forecast scenarios use available data and explicit assumptions that can be wrong. Verify current market data and primary filings, consider your own circumstances, and consult a qualified adviser before making an investment decision.
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