Mobileye Global Inc. research snapshot
MBLY AI stock analysis views Mobileye as an established ADAS and autonomous-driving technology provider with a large installed base, a large driving-data network, and a growing premium-product pipeline. Revenue reached $1.894 billion in 2025, while Q1 2026 revenue rose 27% year over year to $558 million and adjusted operating income rose 61% to $95 million. The reported Q1 GAAP loss of $3.818 billion was dominated by a $3.788 billion non-cash goodwill impairment, so the MBLY AI stock forecast should separate operating recovery from accounting noise. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest source-backed close was $9.55 on July 10 and market capitalization was about $8.04 billion using 842.19 million shares. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$9.55 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
About $8.04 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative ADAS platform with strong technology assets and high execution and governance risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day average, below the 200-day average, with neutral momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mobileye sells EyeQ chips, software, and higher-value ADAS and autonomous-driving systems to OEMs, mainly through Tier 1 suppliers. Its installed base and safety qualification history are meaningful assets. | High |
| Moat | Real-world driving data, REM mapping, validation experience, OEM qualification, and semiconductor-software integration create barriers, but automakers and rival chip and autonomy platforms retain bargaining power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO Amnon Shashua remains deeply involved in the technology roadmap. The Mentee Robotics acquisition expands the vision but creates related-party, dilution, and capital-allocation questions. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 15% to $1.894 billion and operating cash flow reached $602 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 27%, but GAAP results included a large goodwill impairment and adjusted gross margin declined to 66%. | High |
| Valuation | At $9.55, the tool calculated 24.49x derived adjusted TTM EPS and 17.05x TTM free cash flow. GAAP PE is not meaningful because reported earnings are negative. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The price was above the cited 50-day average of $9.40 but below the 200-day average of $10.28. RSI at 53.93 was neutral, leaving the chart in a recovery attempt rather than a confirmed long-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because of OEM production cycles, China exposure, program timing, autonomous-driving regulation, Intel voting control, founder dependence, Mentee integration, dilution, and a history of goodwill impairments. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the source-backed operating and balance-sheet record. Medium for future returns because new product mix, robotaxi adoption, customer volumes, and investor multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business has a credible technology base, but the stock needs sustained execution and better product mix while public shareholders have limited governance influence. | Medium-low |
MBLY AI stock forecast
The MBLY AI stock forecast uses a three-year mechanical sensitivity around the $9.55 July 10 close. Using a derived $0.39 adjusted TTM EPS proxy, the financial_rigor.py model produced about $26.70 in a bull case, $13.70 in a base case, and $4.30 in a bear case. These are scenario outputs, not price promises or analyst targets.
$22 to $28 over 3 years
More likely if EyeQ6, Surround ADAS, SuperVision, Chauffeur, and Drive programs convert into production volume, adjusted margins hold, the $24.5 billion pipeline matures, and Mentee adds useful technology without distracting the core business.
$11 to $15 over 3 years
More likely if revenue grows at a moderate pace, adjusted earnings recover, cash generation remains positive, but OEM price pressure, Intel control, stock compensation, and uncertain autonomy timing keep the terminal multiple near 25x.
$3 to $6 over 3 years
More likely if OEM production weakens, China demand remains soft, design wins fail to reach volume, premium-system margins compress, Mentee consumes capital without returns, or the market assigns a lower multiple to negative GAAP earnings.
MBLY AI technical analysis
MBLY AI technical analysis uses the July 12, 2026 static data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $9.55 July 10 close, a 50-day moving average of $9.40, a 200-day moving average of $10.28, RSI of 53.93, and 20-day average volume of about 6.84 million shares. Confirm live chart data before acting because this page has no request-time market-data calls.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $9.55 close on July 10, 2026 | Latest source-backed regular-session close available at the data cutoff. |
| Near support | $9.14 to $9.40 | Uses the July 8 close and the 50-day average as reference points, not guaranteed floors. |
| Near resistance | $10.28 to $10.50 | The 200-day average is the first broad trend resistance. A sustained close above it would improve the intermediate chart structure. |
| Longer resistance | $17.12 52-week high | This is a wide historical reference and should not be treated as a forecast destination. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $9.40 and 200-day $10.28 | Price above the shorter average but below the longer average indicates a mixed trend. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI 53.93 | The cited RSI is near the midpoint. Read it with price structure, volume, and earnings revisions. |
| Volume | About 6.84 million shares average volume | StockAnalysis 20-day average volume snapshot. Use fresh volume data to test breakouts or breakdowns. |
| Volatility | Elevated, beta 1.16 and 52-week change -44.86% | The large 52-week range of $6.47 to $17.12 makes position sizing and event risk important. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $9.14, then $6.47 | A loss of the recent support reference would weaken the recovery setup and require a fresh thesis review. |
MBLY AI trading strategy
This MBLY AI trading strategy is an educational framework, not personalized investment advice. It links price and volume with EyeQ shipments, OEM production, product mix, cash flow, Mentee integration, and Intel-related governance risk.
Wait for a sustained close above the $10.28 200-day average with supportive volume, then check whether the move is backed by Q2 results, product shipments, and improved guidance rather than only a short squeeze.
Define invalidation before any trade. A failed breakout or close back below $9.40 weakens the setup and calls for a new review.
Treat $9.14 to $9.40 as a watch zone only if selling pressure eases and the operating thesis remains intact. A lower price is not automatically better value when product or OEM risks are worsening.
A sustained close below $9.14 invalidates this setup. Use position size that can tolerate earnings, automotive-cycle, and event volatility.
Track EyeQ unit shipments, advanced-product revenue, adjusted gross margin, OEM design wins reaching production, cash flow, share-based compensation, Mentee milestones, Intel ownership, and China demand.
Revisit the thesis if pipeline conversion, adjusted margin, cash generation, or customer volumes deteriorate. Do not rely on the chart alone.
Investment research summary
Mobileye sells the hardware, software, mapping, and safety systems that help automakers add driver assistance and autonomous-driving features without building the full technology stack internally. Most revenue comes from EyeQ SoCs sold to OEMs through Tier 1 suppliers, while newer full-system products can raise revenue per vehicle.
The moat combines more than 248 million vehicles with deployed SoCs, roughly 1,400 vehicle models, relationships with more than 50 OEMs, large real-world driving datasets, REM mapping, validation know-how, and long OEM qualification cycles. It is meaningful, but chip, software, and vehicle makers can still exert pricing and strategic pressure.
The thesis fails if OEM production or China demand weakens, design wins do not reach volume, customers keep using lower-priced products, premium systems reduce percentage margins, autonomy regulation delays adoption, or Mentee absorbs cash and management attention without useful returns. The Q1 goodwill impairment also shows that expectations can reset sharply.
Founder and CEO Amnon Shashua has led Mobileye since its founding and remains a major technical asset. The Mentee deal was a $900 million transaction with about $612 million in cash and 26.28 million Class A shares, and Shashua was a major Mentee shareholder who recused himself from the board review. That creates a clear governance question even if the strategic logic is sound.
More safety regulation, higher ADAS penetration, software-defined vehicles, robotaxi development, and growing compute content support a long-term industry opportunity. Full autonomy remains dependent on regulation, consumer trust, vehicle economics, and proof that the systems can scale safely.
At $9.55, the financial_rigor.py calculation used a derived adjusted TTM EPS proxy of $0.39 and produced 24.49x earnings, 0.98x book value, and 17.05x free cash flow. The stock is not expensive on cash flow alone, but the weak GAAP earnings record, dilution, Intel control, and uncertain product mix reduce the margin of safety.
FY2025 revenue of $1.894 billion, net loss of $392 million, and cash and equivalents of $1.836 billion were cross-validated between the SEC 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis. Market-cap math used $9.55 multiplied by 842.19 million shares and matched the reported $8.04 billion within 0.04%.
For a long-term owner, the central question is whether Mobileye can convert its installed base and data advantage into higher-value products with durable margins before automotive cycles or Intel supply and governance decisions dominate the outcome. The thesis should be updated after the July 23, 2026 earnings release and each major design-win update.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue | $1.894 billion, up 15% year over year | Mobileye 2025 Form 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and operating cash flow | GAAP net loss of $392 million; operating cash flow of $602 million | Mobileye 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $558 million revenue, 49% GAAP gross margin, $95 million adjusted operating income, and $96 million adjusted net income | Mobileye Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 impairment and cash flow | $3.788 billion non-cash goodwill impairment; $75 million operating cash flow; $30 million property and equipment purchases | Mobileye Q1 2026 results release and Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | $1.344 billion cash and short-term investments and about $1.28 billion net cash in the latest quarterly snapshot | Mobileye Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares and market capitalization | 842.19 million shares; $9.55 multiplied by shares equals about $8.04 billion, with 0.04% verification variance | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Adjusted EPS proxy used in scenarios | $0.39 derived from FY2025 adjusted net income of $286 million divided by 813 million weighted-average shares, plus Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.12 minus Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.08 | Mobileye FY2025 and Q1 2026 earnings releases; Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technology and installed base | More than 248 million vehicles with deployed SoCs, about 1,400 vehicle models, more than 50 OEM relationships, and 10.8 million systems shipped in Q1 2026 | Mobileye Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $9.40, 200-day average $10.28, RSI 53.93, beta 1.16, and 20-day average volume 6.84 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Intel control and Mentee transaction | Intel held about 77.0% of outstanding shares and 96.9% of voting power after the February 2026 Mentee closing; the deal value was $900 million | Mobileye 2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Forecast scenarios use available data and explicit assumptions that can be wrong. Verify current market data and primary filings, consider your own circumstances, and consult a qualified adviser before making an investment decision.
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