Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
LTH AI stock analysis currently views Life Time Group Holdings as a premium health, fitness, and wellness company with recurring membership revenue, 195 athletic country clubs in the U.S. and Canada, and a growing digital, events, and nutrition ecosystem. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, LTH closed at $45.10 on July 31, implying a market capitalization of about $10.08 billion from 223.46 million shares. Q2 2026 revenue rose 13.7% to $866.0 million, net income rose 40.6% to $101.4 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 16.8% to $246.5 million, and management raised its 2026 revenue, adjusted net income, and adjusted EBITDA outlook. The central question is whether new club growth, higher dues, and member utilization can compound faster than construction spending, lease obligations, and an already extended valuation. This LTH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$45.10
Market cap
$10.08 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
79 / 100
Rating
Premium health and wellness franchise with strong Q2 2026 momentum and raised guidance, balanced by capital intensity, rent, and an extended valuation
Trend status
Bullish but extended, with price above the 50-day moving average of $38.23 and the 200-day moving average of $30.09 and RSI near 69.32
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Life Time sells premium athletic club memberships, personal training, spa and wellness services, sports programming, events, nutrition products, and related digital experiences. Recurring dues are supported by higher utilization, a richer membership mix, and comparable center revenue of 9.1% in Q2 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from a premium brand, attractive club locations, member communities, operating scale, programming, and the time and capital needed to replicate a resort-style club. It is meaningful but not absolute because fitness and wellness alternatives remain plentiful. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder, Chairman, and CEO Bahram Akradi has built the company around premium experiences, higher-value members, disciplined expansion, and a broader healthy way of life ecosystem. The 2026 test is whether 14 new clubs, roughly 1.3 million square feet, and about $885 million to $910 million of growth capital expenditure convert into durable per-club returns without excessive leverage or key-person dependence. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 14.3% to $2.995 billion and net income rose to $373.7 million. Q2 2026 revenue increased 13.7% to $866.0 million, net income increased 40.6%, adjusted EBITDA increased 16.8%, and center memberships reached 860,041 at 195 centers. Management raised its 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income guidance. | High |
| Valuation | At $45.10, the TTM diluted EPS input of $1.83 implies about 24.64x PE and the $14.79 book value per share implies about 3.05x book value. StockAnalysis reports a 24.67x trailing PE, 3.17x price to sales, and 16.31x EV to EBITDA, so the shares are not priced as a distressed recovery. | High |
| Technical trend | LTH closed above its 50-day moving average of $38.23 and 200-day moving average of $30.09 at the cutoff. RSI near 69.32 indicates strong momentum, with the stock near its 52-week high of $47.24. | High |
| Risk level | Medium-high risk reflects consumer discretionary exposure, fixed operating and lease costs, construction and maintenance spending, debt, sale-leaseback dependence, execution risk in 14 planned new clubs, and potential price elasticity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical and current reported data, but lower for the durability of premium pricing, new club returns, future cash conversion, and the valuation multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium because the business has strong current momentum and falling leverage, but the price already reflects meaningful confidence in continued membership growth, operating leverage, and successful club expansion. | Medium |
LTH AI stock forecast
The LTH AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $45.10 July 31 close and the 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance midpoint of about $1.75. Pineify financial_rigor.py calculated approximately $86.3 in the bullish case, $59.0 in the base case, and $27.0 in the bearish case. These are model outputs under explicit assumptions, not price targets or promises.
$80 to $90
More likely if comparable center revenue stays at or above the 7.9% to 8.3% guidance, higher dues do not materially reduce retention, all 14 clubs open as planned, new club returns are attractive, adjusted EBITDA grows near or above the raised $940 million to $955 million outlook, and the market supports a 30x earnings multiple.
$55 to $62
More likely if 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income guidance are broadly met, memberships and average revenue per membership keep growing, sale-leaseback proceeds and cash flow fund a large part of expansion, leverage stays at or below 2.00 times, and the market applies roughly a 24x multiple to normalized earnings.
$24 to $30
More likely if a consumer slowdown raises cancellations, price increases meet resistance, construction and maintenance costs rise, new clubs ramp slowly, cash flow stays below expansion needs, refinancing becomes more expensive, or the market de-rates the shares toward an 18x multiple.
LTH AI technical analysis
LTH AI technical analysis uses the latest market data available at the August 3, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $45.10 July 31 close, a 50-day moving average of $38.23, a 200-day moving average of $30.09, RSI of 69.32, and a 20-day average volume of 2,598,708 shares. This page is static, so confirm levels in a live NYSE chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $45.10 | NYSE closing price on July 31, 2026, the latest completed session at the data cutoff. |
| Near support | $42 to $44 | A consolidation zone around the pre-earnings base. It is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $46 to $48 | A recent high area near the 52-week high of $47.24 where strong momentum may meet profit taking. A breakout needs volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $38.23 | Price was above this reference, supporting a bullish intermediate trend while leaving room for a normal pullback. |
| 200-day moving average | $30.09 | Price was well above this long-term reference, so the broader trend remained constructive at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI near 69.32 | Strong momentum with an elevated daily reading. RSI can remain high during a trend and does not by itself signal a reversal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.60 million shares | A breakout above resistance is more credible if volume expands without a sharp reversal. |
| Volatility | Elevated relative to the market, with 5-year beta near 1.49 | The beta measure and the recent price expansion argue for position sizing that can withstand large daily moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $38.23 | A decisive break below the 50-day average would weaken the intermediate trend thesis and require a fresh review of earnings, leverage, and valuation. |
LTH AI trading strategy
The LTH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. Use live prices, position sizing, an explicit loss limit, and fresh checks of membership trends, comparable center revenue, new club openings, capital expenditure, cash flow, debt, and consumer demand.
Wait for LTH to hold the $42 to $44 zone or break the $46 to $48 area with volume. Confirm that membership growth, average revenue per membership, comparable center revenue, and adjusted EBITDA remain consistent with the raised 2026 outlook before treating a breakout as durable.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below $38.23 invalidates the intermediate trend setup.
If LTH pulls back toward the moving-average area while memberships, retention, cash generation, and club economics remain healthy, compare the lower price with normalized EPS, debt, capital needs, and the base-case valuation range.
Do not average down only because the price falls. Reassess if cancellations rise, pricing weakens, new clubs ramp slowly, or cash flow remains below expansion needs.
Track center memberships, average revenue per center membership, comparable center revenue, new club openings (14 planned, with seven remaining for the fourth quarter), growth, maintenance and modernization capital expenditure, sale-leaseback proceeds, net debt to adjusted EBITDA at or below 2.00 times, the $500 million share repurchase program, and the next quarterly earnings report.
Reduce confidence when the share price or valuation rises without matching evidence in membership quality, per-club returns, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, and leverage.
Investment research summary
Members pay Life Time for a recurring premium environment that combines fitness, sports, training, spa, family, wellness, nutrition, events, and community. Center revenue represented about 97% of FY2025 revenue, so the core engine is the ability to fill attractive clubs, raise average dues, and increase member use of paid services. Q2 2026 average revenue per center membership rose 11.8% to $993.
The moat is built from brand trust, club locations, local member communities, programming, trained staff, and a high replacement cost for resort-style facilities. It is strongest in markets where Life Time has a dense network and premium households, but competitors can still offer cheaper gyms, boutique studios, country clubs, digital fitness, and at-home alternatives.
The thesis can fail if price increases reduce retention, high fixed costs magnify a membership downturn, new club construction overruns budgets, sale-leaseback activity shifts economics toward rent, debt remains elevated, or consumers trade down. A reported earnings increase can also look stronger than underlying cash returns when capital expenditure is heavy and adjusted metrics exclude recurring stock compensation, legal settlements, or other items.
Founder and CEO Bahram Akradi has pursued a premium country-club model, a higher-value membership mix, club expansion, and a broader healthy way of life ecosystem. The 2026 test is capital allocation: management must convert 14 new clubs, roughly 1.3 million square feet, and about $885 million to $910 million of growth capital expenditure into attractive long-term returns while keeping net debt to adjusted EBITDA at or below 2.00 times and executing a $500 million buyback. Fitch and S&P both upgraded Life Time to BB in the quarter.
Healthy aging, wellness, preventative fitness, pickleball, personal training, and experiential membership are durable demand themes. The industry is still consumer discretionary, however, and premium clubs compete for household time and budgets with gyms, studios, outdoor recreation, digital subscriptions, and other leisure experiences.
At $45.10, the TTM EPS of $1.83 implies about 24.64x PE and the $14.79 book value implies about 3.05x book value. StockAnalysis reports a 24.67x trailing PE, 3.17x price to sales, and 16.31x EV to EBITDA, while 13 analysts hold a Strong Buy consensus with an average $52.07 target. The current price leaves a margin of safety only if normalized earnings grow with new clubs and pricing; the three-scenario audit spans $27.0 to $86.3 because that outcome is assumption-sensitive.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTH share price | $45.10 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis LTH overview, with daily price sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $10.08 billion calculated as $45.10 x 223.46 million shares, a 0.02% deviation from the reported market cap | StockAnalysis share statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings release | $866.0 million revenue, $101.4 million net income, $0.45 diluted EPS, $246.5 million adjusted EBITDA, $0.48 adjusted diluted EPS, and 195 centers. | Life Time Q2 2026 earnings release filed as SEC Exhibit 99.1 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 balance sheet and leverage | Cash and cash equivalents of $223.6 million, total debt of $1.497 billion, net debt of $1.290 billion, and a net debt leverage ratio of 1.4 times. | Life Time Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Updated 2026 guidance | Revenue of $3.350 billion to $3.375 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $940 million to $955 million, adjusted net income of $394 million to $402 million, comparable center revenue growth of 7.9% to 8.3%, and 14 new clubs. | Life Time Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 13 analysts with an average target of $52.07, following post-earnings target raises from RBC, Northland, Deutsche Bank, Mizuho, KeyBanc, and Guggenheim. | StockAnalysis LTH forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $38.23, 200-day moving average $30.09, RSI 69.32, 20-day average volume 2,598,708 shares, and beta 1.49. | StockAnalysis LTH statistics, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation audit | Pineify financial_rigor.py produced $86.3 bullish, $59.0 base, and $27.0 bearish values from 2026 adjusted EPS guidance near $1.75, three-year growth assumptions of 18%, 12%, and negative 5%, and target PE assumptions of 30x, 24x, and 18x. | Pineify financial_rigor.py scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This LTH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios use public information available as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if Life Time results, membership retention, pricing, club openings, capital spending, leverage, technical conditions, or market sentiment change.
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