Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
LTH AI stock analysis currently views Life Time Group Holdings as a premium health, fitness, and wellness company with recurring membership revenue, 190 athletic country clubs, and a growing digital and events ecosystem. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, LTH closed at $41.89 on July 10, implying a market capitalization of about $9.32 billion from 222.6 million shares. Q1 2026 revenue rose 11.7% to $788.7 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 18.3% to $226.7 million, and management raised its 2026 outlook. The central question is whether new club growth, higher dues, and member utilization can compound faster than construction spending, lease obligations, and valuation risk. This LTH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$41.89
Market cap
$9.32 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
Premium health and wellness franchise with strong pricing and membership momentum, balanced by capital intensity and valuation sensitivity
Trend status
Bullish but extended, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 73.93
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Life Time sells premium athletic club memberships, personal training, spa and wellness services, sports programming, events, nutrition products, and related digital experiences. Recurring dues are supported by higher utilization and a richer membership mix. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from a premium brand, attractive club locations, member communities, operating scale, programming, and the time and capital needed to replicate a resort-style club. It is meaningful but not absolute because fitness and wellness alternatives remain plentiful. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder, Chairman, and CEO Bahram Akradi has built the company around premium experiences, higher-value members, disciplined expansion, and a broader healthy way of life ecosystem. The key test is whether expansion and sale-leaseback decisions create durable per-club returns without adding excessive leverage or key-person dependence. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 14.3% to $2.995 billion and net income rose to $373.7 million from $156.2 million. Q1 2026 revenue increased 11.7%, adjusted EBITDA increased 18.3%, memberships increased 1.4%, and average revenue per center membership increased 10.2%. | High |
| Valuation | At $41.89, the audited FY2025 diluted EPS input of $1.66 implies about 25.23x PE and the Q1 2026 equity value implies about 2.97x book value. StockAnalysis reports a 24.51x trailing PE and 16.47x EV to EBITDA under its standardized data, so the shares are not priced as a distressed recovery. | High |
| Technical trend | LTH was above its 50-day moving average of $34.65 and 200-day moving average of $28.88 at the cutoff. RSI near 73.93 indicates strong momentum but also an extended daily reading that increases pullback risk. | High |
| Risk level | Medium-high risk reflects consumer discretionary exposure, fixed operating and lease costs, construction and maintenance spending, debt, sale-leaseback dependence, execution risk in 12 to 14 planned new clubs, and potential price elasticity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical and current reported data, but lower for the durability of premium pricing, new club returns, future cash conversion, and the valuation multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium because the business has strong current momentum, but the price already reflects meaningful confidence in continued membership growth, operating leverage, and successful club expansion. | Medium |
LTH AI stock forecast
The LTH AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $41.89 July 10 close and FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.44. Pineify financial_rigor.py calculated approximately $71.0 in the bullish case, $48.6 in the base case, and $22.2 in the bearish case. These are model outputs under explicit assumptions, not price targets or promises.
$65 to $75
More likely if comparable center revenue stays near the upper end of guidance, higher dues do not materially reduce retention, 12 to 14 new clubs open on schedule, new club returns are attractive, adjusted EBITDA grows near or above guidance, and the market supports a 30x earnings multiple.
$45 to $52
More likely if 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance are broadly met, memberships and average revenue per membership keep growing, cash flow funds a large part of expansion, leverage stays controlled, and the market applies roughly a 24x multiple to normalized earnings.
$20 to $25
More likely if a consumer slowdown raises cancellations, price increases meet resistance, construction and maintenance costs rise, new clubs ramp slowly, cash flow stays below reported earnings, refinancing becomes more expensive, or the market de-rates the shares toward an 18x multiple.
LTH AI technical analysis
LTH AI technical analysis uses the latest market data available at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $41.89 July 10 close, a 50-day moving average of $34.65, a 200-day moving average of $28.88, RSI of 73.93, and 20-day average volume of 3,091,247 shares. This page is static, so confirm levels in a live NYSE chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $41.89 | NYSE closing price on July 10, 2026, the latest completed session at the data cutoff. |
| Near support | $38 to $40 | A planning zone around the recent breakout and consolidation area. It is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $42 to $45 | A round-number and recent high area where strong momentum may meet profit taking. A breakout needs volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $34.65 | Price was materially above this reference, supporting a bullish intermediate trend while leaving room for a normal pullback. |
| 200-day moving average | $28.88 | Price was well above this long-term reference, so the broader trend remained constructive at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI near 73.93 | Strong momentum with an extended daily reading. RSI can remain elevated during a trend and does not by itself signal a reversal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.09 million shares | A breakout above resistance is more credible if volume expands without a sharp reversal. |
| Volatility | Elevated relative to the market, with 5-year beta near 1.51 | The beta measure and recent price expansion argue for position sizing that can withstand large daily moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $34.65 | A decisive break below the 50-day average would weaken the intermediate trend thesis and require a fresh review of earnings, leverage, and valuation. |
LTH AI trading strategy
The LTH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. Use live prices, position sizing, an explicit loss limit, and fresh checks of membership trends, comparable center revenue, new club openings, capital expenditure, cash flow, debt, and consumer demand.
Wait for LTH to hold the $38 to $40 zone or reclaim the $42 to $45 area with volume. Confirm that membership growth, average revenue per membership, comparable center revenue, and adjusted EBITDA remain consistent with the 2026 outlook before treating a breakout as durable.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below $34.65 invalidates the intermediate trend setup.
If LTH pulls back toward the moving-average area while memberships, retention, cash generation, and club economics remain healthy, compare the lower price with normalized EPS, debt, capital needs, and the base-case valuation range.
Do not average down only because the price falls. Reassess if cancellations rise, pricing weakens, new clubs ramp slowly, or cash flow remains below expansion needs.
Track center memberships, average revenue per center membership, comparable center revenue, personal training utilization, new club openings, growth and maintenance capital expenditure, sale-leaseback proceeds, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, and the next earnings date on July 30, 2026.
Reduce confidence when the share price or valuation rises without matching evidence in membership quality, per-club returns, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, and leverage.
Investment research summary
Members pay Life Time for a recurring premium environment that combines fitness, sports, training, spa, family, wellness, nutrition, events, and community. Center revenue represented 97.1% of FY2025 revenue, so the core engine is the ability to fill attractive clubs, raise average dues, and increase member use of paid services.
The moat is built from brand trust, club locations, local member communities, programming, trained staff, and a high replacement cost for resort-style facilities. It is strongest in markets where Life Time has a dense network and premium households, but competitors can still offer cheaper gyms, boutique studios, country clubs, digital fitness, and at-home alternatives.
The thesis can fail if price increases reduce retention, high fixed costs magnify a membership downturn, new club construction overruns budgets, sale-leaseback activity shifts economics toward rent, debt remains elevated, or consumers trade down. A reported earnings increase can also look stronger than underlying cash returns when capital expenditure is heavy and adjusted metrics exclude recurring stock compensation or other items.
Founder and CEO Bahram Akradi has pursued a premium country-club model, higher-value membership mix, club expansion, and a broader healthy way of life ecosystem. The 2026 test is capital allocation: management must convert 12 to 14 new clubs and about $875 million to $915 million of planned growth capital expenditure into attractive long-term returns while keeping net debt to adjusted EBITDA at or below 2.00 times.
Healthy aging, wellness, preventative fitness, pickleball, personal training, and experiential membership are durable demand themes. The industry is still consumer discretionary, however, and premium clubs compete for household time and budgets with gyms, studios, outdoor recreation, digital subscriptions, and other leisure experiences.
At $41.89, the audited FY2025 inputs imply about 25.23x PE and 2.97x book value. StockAnalysis reports 24.51x trailing PE and 16.47x EV to EBITDA. The current price leaves a margin of safety only if normalized earnings grow with new clubs and pricing; the three-scenario audit spans $22.2 to $71.0 because that outcome is highly assumption-sensitive.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTH share price | $41.89 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis LTH overview, with daily price sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $9.32 billion calculated as $41.89 x 222.60 million shares | StockAnalysis share statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 income statement | $2.995 billion revenue and $373.7 million net income. Diluted EPS was $1.66. | Life Time 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with StockAnalysis standardized financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating performance | $788.7 million revenue, $88.1 million net income, $226.7 million adjusted EBITDA, 837,903 center memberships, and 190 centers. | Life Time Q1 2026 earnings release filed as SEC Exhibit 99.1 | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | $3.320 billion to $3.350 billion revenue, $925 million to $940 million adjusted EBITDA, 12 to 14 new clubs, and comparable center revenue growth of 6.9% to 7.5%. | Life Time Q1 2026 earnings release and 8-K filing | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Q1 2026 cash and cash equivalents were $120.0 million. Total debt was $1.520 billion, and net debt leverage was 1.6 times. StockAnalysis standardized data lists $30.23 million as cash and equivalents, which appears to reflect restricted cash and is not used here. | Life Time Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release. StockAnalysis balance-sheet mapping retained as a disclosed source gap. | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash flow and capital intensity | Q1 2026 operating cash flow was $198.8 million, total capital expenditure was $260.0 million, and company-defined free cash flow was negative $61.2 million. | Life Time Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $34.65, 200-day moving average $28.88, RSI 73.93, 20-day average volume 3,091,247 shares, and beta 1.51. | StockAnalysis LTH statistics, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation audit | Pineify financial_rigor.py produced $71.0 bullish, $48.6 base, and $22.2 bearish values from $1.44 adjusted EPS, three-year growth assumptions of 18%, 12%, and negative 5%, and target PE assumptions of 30x, 24x, and 18x. | Pineify financial_rigor.py scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
This LTH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios use public information available as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if Life Time results, membership retention, pricing, club openings, capital spending, leverage, technical conditions, or market sentiment change.
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