Grand Canyon Education Inc. research snapshot

LOPE AI Stock Analysis

LOPE AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Grand Canyon Education as a steady education services franchise that keeps executing at a reasonable valuation after a punishing drawdown. The stock traded at $149.25 on August 3, 2026 at 12:07 PM EDT, up 3.91 or 2.69% from the $145.34 previous close within a day range near $148.34 to $151.17, carrying a market capitalization near $3.84 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $149.25 times roughly 25.73 million shares outstanding. The July 30, 2026 Q2 report delivered service revenue of $264.0 million up 6.7%, an operating margin of 22.0% up 110 basis points, diluted EPS of $1.75, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.81 that beat consensus by $0.14, while first-half 2026 service revenue rose 6.7% to $572.8 million and university partner enrollments rose 7.6% to 126,231. On July 29, 2026 GCE entered an amended and restated master services agreement with Grand Canyon University that runs 15 years through June 30, 2041 with automatic renewals, removes GCU ability to terminate for convenience, and resets service fees at 60% of tuition and academic-related fees, reducing annual service revenue by about $20 million while keeping the operating income impact under $1 million per quarter. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.18 to $10.32, which it said sits $0.14 above consensus, repurchased 471,489 shares in Q2 for about $75.3 million with $124.1 million still authorized, and is working toward a credit line by mid-August 2026. The stock is still down about 33% from its 52-week high of $223.04 after making a fresh 52-week low of $134.27, trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $146 and $148 but below the 100-day near $157 and the 200-day near $164.52, with 14-day RSI near 53 on Barchart and 52.91 on StockAnalysis.com. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.

Current price

$149.25 at the August 3, 2026, 12:07 PM EDT reading, up 3.91 or 2.69% from the $145.34 previous close, within a day range near $148.34 to $151.17 after opening at $148.46

Market cap

$3.84 billion

AI score

72 / 100

Rating

Steady education services franchise at a reasonable valuation with a de-risked MSA

Trend status

Holding above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages after a fresh 52-week low of $134.27, still below the 100-day and 200-day trend lines

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness
B-level information richness. LOPE has been publicly traded since 2008, has extensive SEC filings including the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filed July 30, 2026, 18 years of consistent operating history, quarterly earnings calls, analyst coverage from three sell-side firms, and substantial media coverage. However, the complex GCE and GCU relationship, the amended master services agreement details, ongoing regulatory and for-profit classification ambiguity, and the higher education sector narrative create uncertainty that standard financial analysis cannot fully resolve.
bias Check
The main AI bias risk is anchoring on the roughly 33% decline from the $223.04 52-week high and the fresh $134.27 low, which can create an overly negative framing even though Q2 2026 beat estimates, adjusted EPS guidance was raised, enrollments grew 7.6%, the company kept buying back stock, and the amended MSA removed the termination-for-convenience overhang for 15 years. The reverse check asks whether the underlying business, which has delivered consistent financial performance for 18 years, predictable enrollment-driven revenue, expanding margins, and growing cash flows, is being priced for a worse outcome than the fundamentals support. A second bias is over-indexing on the share price drawdown instead of the operating results and the de-risked agreement structure.
ai Confidence
High for current SEC filings, share count, market cap math, Q2 2026 and first-half 2026 revenue and earnings, enrollment figures, analyst consensus, and common valuation ratios that cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the Q2 2026 earnings call. The StockAnalysis.com statistics page reports TTM operating income of $317.12 million with a 27.77% margin under S&P Global classification, while the StockAnalysis.com financials page and SEC filings-based figures show TTM operating income of $279.71 million with a 24.49% margin that reconciles to first-half 2026 operating income of $153.6 million plus second-half 2025 operating income; this page uses the filing-consistent figure as primary. Medium for forward enrollment projections, the multi-year revenue and operating income impact of the amended MSA, regulatory outcomes, technical levels, and the for-profit classification question.
investment Certainty
Medium-high for a steady, cash-generative business with a de-risked partner agreement and a moderate valuation. LOPE has predictable recurring revenue, low capital intensity, strong margins, a net cash balance sheet, and an active buyback program. The amended MSA reduces the biggest structural overhang by locking in GCU for 15 years. The main uncertainties are the for-profit classification dispute, the roughly $20 million annual revenue reduction from the MSA, enrollment growth sustainability as AI shifts higher education marketing, and the market multiple.

Quick verdict table

DimensionConclusionConfidence
Business qualityGrand Canyon Education provides education services to 20 university partners under master services agreements, dominated by Grand Canyon University, covering marketing, admissions, technology, curriculum, student support, and hybrid campus operations. Q2 2026 service revenue rose 6.7% to $264.0 million with a 22.0% operating margin, first-half revenue rose 6.7% to $572.8 million with a 26.8% margin, and partner enrollments rose 7.6% to 126,231.High
MoatThe moat is medium-high and rests on the amended 15-year MSA through 2041, a proprietary $300 million administrative system, licensure-led online programs, a 47-site hybrid campus network growing 18.5% excluding closures, and the GCU brand. The single-partner concentration on GCU and regulatory exposure keep it narrower than a diversified platform.Medium-high
ManagementChairman and CEO Brian Mueller has run the business for 18 years with consistent results, and CFO Dan Bachus manages a disciplined balance sheet. In Q2 2026 the team negotiated an amended MSA that removes termination-for-convenience risk for 15 years, repurchased 471,489 shares for about $75.3 million with $124.1 million remaining, and guided 2026 capex to $30 million to $35 million.Medium-high
Financial trendRevenue has grown every year, from $896.6 million in FY2021 to $1.11 billion in FY2025, with TTM revenue near $1.14 billion. Q2 2026 delivered 6.7% service revenue growth, a 110 basis point operating margin gain to 22.0%, adjusted EPS of $1.81 that beat consensus by $0.14, and first-half revenue growth of 6.7%, while full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $10.18 to $10.32.High
ValuationAt $149.25, LOPE trades at about 18.0x trailing EPS, 13.9x forward adjusted EPS, 11.5x EV/EBITDA, and 16.0x free cash flow, with a PEG near 0.90, below its own historical range and most education services peers. The three-analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average price target of $195, about 30.7% above the current quote, with targets from $185 to $200.Medium-high
Technical trendTechnical snapshots as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff show LOPE at $149.25, above the 20-day moving average near $146.33 and the 50-day near $147.62 but below the 5-day near $151.02, the 100-day near $157.14, and the 200-day near $164.52, after making a fresh 52-week low of $134.27.Medium
Risk levelMain risks include the Department of Education for-profit classification dispute and related regulatory actions, heavy dependence on GCU as the dominant partner, the roughly $20 million annual revenue reduction from the amended MSA, enrollment growth pressure as AI shifts how students discover programs, possible falls in marketing efficiency, and higher education sector stigma.Medium-high
AI confidenceHigh for descriptive facts and audited calculations that matched across SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 call transcript, StockAnalysis.com, and Barchart. Lower for forward scenarios because enrollment, MSA revenue impact, regulatory outcomes, and multiples are uncertain.High data confidence
Investment certaintyMedium-high. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction, and the regulatory overhang still limits how far certainty should extend.Medium-high

LOPE AI stock forecast

LOPE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The LOPE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $149.25 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $10.23. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $135, a base area near $220, and a bullish area near $285, using adjusted EPS growth of 2%, 9%, and 12% and exit multiples of 13x, 17x, and 20x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.

Bullish case

$260 to $310

More likely if enrollment growth accelerates toward 8% to 10% on the Honors College, the College of Construction and Industrial Technologies, the planned law school, and hybrid campus expansion, if the amended MSA locks in the GCU relationship without material revenue drag, if adjusted EPS compounds near 12% a year, and if the market re-rates LOPE closer to 20x earnings.

Base case

$200 to $240

More likely if total enrollments keep growing 6% to 8%, margins expand modestly as management expects, the amended MSA reduces service revenue by about $20 million annually with an immaterial operating income impact, buybacks continue, and the stock trades in a 16x to 18x range on roughly $13.25 adjusted EPS in three years.

Bearish case

$120 to $155

More likely if regulatory actions disrupt the GCE and GCU structure or the for-profit classification materially changes the economics, enrollment growth stalls, the MSA revenue reduction proves larger than modeled, AI-driven marketing shifts cut lead flow, or the market compresses the multiple toward 12x to 13x on roughly $10.90 adjusted EPS in three years.

LOPE AI technical analysis

LOPE AI Technical Analysis

LOPE AI technical analysis shows a stock basing after a sharp decline. The stock traded at $149.25 on August 3, 2026 at 12:07 PM EDT, up 2.69% from the $145.34 close, above its 20-day moving average near $146.33 and its 50-day near $147.62 but below the 5-day near $151.02, the 100-day near $157.14, and the 200-day near $164.52, with 14-day RSI near 53 on Barchart and 52.91 on StockAnalysis.com and 14-day ADX near 22.65 indicating a weak, consolidating trend. The fresh 52-week low of $134.27 is the key downside reference, and the $157 to $165 zone is the first meaningful resistance.

LevelValueWhy it matters
Current price$149.25StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 12:07 PM EDT reading, up 3.91 or 2.69% from the $145.34 previous close within a day range near $148.34 to $151.17 after opening at $148.46.
Near support$144 to $148The 20-day moving average near $146.33 on Barchart and the 50-day near $147.62 form a support cluster that the stock is holding above as of August 3, 2026.
Key support$134 to $137The 52-week low of $134.27 per StockAnalysis.com is the primary downside reference. A close below it on volume would signal a renewed breakdown.
Deep support$120 to $125The next psychological and structural zone below the 52-week low, only relevant if the $134 area breaks decisively.
Near resistance$151 to $157The 5-day moving average near $151.02 and the 100-day moving average near $157.14 on Barchart cap the immediate bounce attempt.
Key resistance$164 to $168The 200-day moving average near $164.52 on Barchart is the major overhead. A sustained move above this zone would suggest a trend reversal.
52-week high$223.04The 52-week high is the upper reference, roughly 49% above the current price, per StockAnalysis.com as of August 3, 2026.
MomentumRSI near 53, ADX near 22.714-day RSI was near 53.13 on Barchart and 52.91 on StockAnalysis.com, neutral after the bounce, with 14-day ADX near 22.65 showing a weak and consolidating trend rather than a strong move.
VolumeAverage volume near 369,000 sharesBarchart reported the 20-day average volume near 368,975 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 368,885 as of August 3, 2026, useful for checking whether a breakout or breakdown is confirmed.
VolatilityElevated, 14-day historical volatility near 52%Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 51.91% and 14-day ATR near $5.60, so position sizing should account for larger daily swings.
InvalidationClose below $134.27A decisive close below the 52-week low near $134.27 on above-average volume would invalidate the base-building thesis and open the path toward the $120 to $125 zone.

LOPE AI trading strategy

LOPE AI Trading Strategy Framework

The LOPE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring an education services stock with a de-risked partner agreement but an unfinished technical base. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.

Trend-following setup

Watch for LOPE to hold above the $144 to $148 support cluster, then reclaim the 100-day moving average near $157 and the 200-day near $164.52 on volume above the roughly 369,000-share average. A sustained move through $168 would confirm the reversal from the $134.27 low.

A close below the 52-week low near $134.27 on above-average volume invalidates the base. Do not anticipate the reversal without price confirmation and a fundamental catalyst such as a favorable regulatory or enrollment data point.

Mean-reversion setup

If LOPE pulls back toward the $144 to $148 support cluster with RSI near 40 to 45 and no negative fundamental news, the risk and reward of a bounce toward $155 to $160 becomes more favorable. Look for volume exhaustion and a bullish reversal candlestick pattern before acting.

Set a stop below $144 or, for a wider stop, below $134.27. The setup carries gap risk from regulatory headlines that can break technical support quickly.

Fundamental monitor

Track quarterly enrollment by platform (online, ground, hybrid), service revenue growth, operating margins, the amended MSA execution including the roughly $20 million annual revenue reduction, buyback pace and the pending credit line, new site openings, law school progress, and any Department of Education or for-profit classification developments.

Reduce exposure if enrollment growth stalls for two consecutive quarters, if regulatory action materially changes the GCE and GCU economics, or if the amended MSA revenue impact proves larger than the company estimated.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Grand Canyon Education runs the operational backbone for Grand Canyon University and 19 other partners, providing marketing, admissions, curriculum, technology, student support, and hybrid campus operations in exchange for recurring service fees. Under the amended MSA effective July 1, 2026, GCE earns 60% of GCU tuition and academic-related fees, so the business is a scaled services fee model monetizing accredited enrollment growth.

Moat

The moat comes from the amended 15-year master services agreement through June 30, 2041 with automatic renewals, a proprietary $300 million administrative system, licensure-led online programs where over 70% of online students pursue degrees that require accreditation and licensing, a 47-site hybrid campus network, and the GCU brand in Christian higher education. The single-partner concentration on GCU and regulatory exposure narrow the moat.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if the Department of Education for-profit classification dispute or other regulatory action materially changes the GCE and GCU structure, if enrollment growth stalls as AI shifts how students discover and choose programs, if the amended MSA revenue reduction of about $20 million annually proves larger than modeled, if hybrid expansion hits regulatory or capacity limits, or if the GCU relationship weakens despite the 15-year term.

Management

Chairman and CEO Brian Mueller has led the company for 18 years with remarkably consistent financial results, and CFO Dan Bachus runs a disciplined balance sheet with net cash and low leverage. The Q2 2026 amended MSA was a key strategic win because it removes GCU termination-for-convenience risk for 15 years. The company repurchased 471,489 shares in Q2 for about $75.3 million, has $124.1 million remaining, and plans a credit line by mid-August 2026 to keep buying stock.

Industry trend

Higher education is in structural flux: small private universities are closing at an accelerating rate, AI is reshaping lead generation and marketing efficiency, and licensure-led online, ground, and hybrid programs are consolidating toward scaled operators. Grand Canyon Education sits on the favorable side of that shift with the Honors College, the new College of Construction and Industrial Technologies, a planned law school, and a hybrid campus model that targets about 80 locations.

Valuation and margin of safety

At about 13.9x forward adjusted EPS with a PEG near 0.90, a net cash balance sheet, and roughly 16x trailing free cash flow, LOPE trades below its own historical multiple and most education peers. The base case scenario area near $220 offers about 47% upside from $149.25, while the bearish area near $135 is roughly 10% below. Margin of safety is reasonable if enrollment and margins hold, but the regulatory overhang and the MSA revenue reduction mean the downside scenario is a real possibility.

Source-backed data

LOPE Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

MetricValueSourceLast verified
LOPE price$149.25 at the August 3, 2026, 12:07 PM EDT reading, up 3.91 or 2.69% from the $145.34 previous close, within a day range near $148.34 to $151.17StockAnalysis.com real-time quoteAugust 4, 2026
Market capitalization$3.84 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $149.25 x about 25.73 million shares outstandingStockAnalysis.com quote and statisticsAugust 4, 2026
Q2 2026 resultsService revenue of $264.0 million up 6.7%, operating income of $58.2 million up 12.3% with a 22.0% operating margin, net income of $45.9 million, diluted EPS of $1.75, adjusted diluted EPS of $1.81 beating consensus by $0.14, and adjusted EBITDA of $73.4 million up 8.9%GCE Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 30, 2026
First-half 2026 resultsService revenue of $572.8 million up 6.7%, operating income of $153.6 million up 9.9% with a 26.8% operating margin, net income of $121.2 million, diluted EPS of $4.57, adjusted diluted EPS of $4.69, and adjusted EBITDA of $184.1 million up 8.7%GCE Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 30, 2026
EnrollmentUniversity partner enrollments of 126,231 at June 30, 2026, up 7.6%, with GCU enrollments of 121,921 up 7.5%, GCU online of 113,011 up 7.8%, GCU ground of 8,910 up 3.9%, and off-campus classroom and laboratory site enrollments of 5,829 up 16.8%, or 18.5% excluding closed sites and sites in teach outGCE Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 30, 2026
Amended and restated MSAEntered July 29, 2026, effective July 1, 2026, with an initial 15-year term through June 30, 2041 and up to three automatic five-year renewals; eliminates GCU termination for convenience and early termination fees; resets service fees at 60% of tuition and academic-related fees; removes a reimbursement payment; estimated service revenue reduced by about $20 million annually with an operating income impact not expected to exceed $1 million per quarterGCE Q2 2026 earnings call and Form 10-QJuly 30, 2026
FY2026 guidanceService revenue of $1,165.3 million to $1,172.3 million, operating margin of 28.0% to 28.2%, effective tax rate of 23.2%, diluted EPS of $9.93 to $10.07, adjusted diluted EPS of $10.18 to $10.32, and about 26.1 million diluted sharesGCE Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 30, 2026
Share repurchasesRepurchased 471,489 shares in Q2 2026 at a cost of about $75.3 million, plus 169,106 shares repurchased since June 30, 2026, with $124.1 million remaining under the repurchase authorization as of July 30, 2026GCE Q2 2026 earnings callJuly 30, 2026
Balance sheetCash and cash equivalents of $171.06 million, investments of $103.47 million, total cash and investments of $274.5 million, total assets of $919.18 million, total liabilities of $249.67 million, and total stockholders equity of $669.51 million at June 30, 2026, with total debt of $104.21 million and net cash of $170.31 million per StockAnalysis.com statisticsGCE Q2 2026 earnings release balance sheet and StockAnalysis.com statisticsAugust 4, 2026
Shares outstanding25.73 million shares per StockAnalysis.com statistics as of August 3, 2026, down 5.28% year over year; the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover lists 26,234,000 shares outstanding at June 30, 2026 with additional buybacks completed after quarter endStockAnalysis.com statistics and GCE Q2 2026 Form 10-QAugust 4, 2026
Valuation18.04x trailing EPS, 13.90x forward PE, 3.40x sales, 5.62x book value, 15.99x free cash flow, EV/EBITDA of 11.54, EV/EBIT of 13.25, and PEG of 0.90StockAnalysis.com statisticsAugust 4, 2026
TTM income statementTTM revenue of $1.14 billion up 7.0%, TTM net income of $224.21 million, TTM EPS of $8.26, TTM operating income of $279.71 million with a 24.49% margin on a filing-consistent basis, gross margin of 53.27%, operating margin of 27.77% and profit margin of 19.63% per StockAnalysis.com statistics under S&P Global classificationStockAnalysis.com financials and statisticsAugust 4, 2026
TTM cash flowOperating cash flow of $278.71 million, capital expenditures of $36.15 million, free cash flow of $242.56 million, and free cash flow per share of $9.43StockAnalysis.com statisticsAugust 4, 2026
FY2025 resultsRevenue of $1.106 billion up 7.07%, net income of $216.17 million down 4.45%, EPS of $7.71, operating cash flow of $273.49 million, and free cash flow of $238.65 million, cross-checked against SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON for revenue and net incomeStockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRLAugust 4, 2026
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 30.98%, return on invested capital of 46.35%, return on assets of 20.43%, current ratio of 2.82, debt to equity of 0.16, and effective tax rate of 23.42%StockAnalysis.com statisticsAugust 4, 2026
Analyst consensusStrong Buy from 3 analysts with an average price target of $195.00, about 30.65% above the current price, with a low target of $185 and a high target of $200StockAnalysis.com forecastAugust 4, 2026
Recent analyst target updatesBarrington lowered its target to $200 from $230 on July 31, 2026 and reiterated Buy; BMO Capital maintained Buy at $185; Truist maintained Buy on July 31, 2026StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feedAugust 4, 2026
Consensus estimatesFY2026 revenue estimate of $1.17 billion up 5.68% with adjusted EPS of $10.23 up 12.63%, and FY2027 revenue of $1.24 billion up 6.12% with adjusted EPS of $11.32 up 10.72%, with three-year revenue growth forecast of 5.88% and EPS growth forecast of 10.89%StockAnalysis.com forecastAugust 4, 2026
Short interest1.72 million shares short, 6.70% of shares outstanding, 6.87% of float, and about 4.20 days to coverStockAnalysis.com statistics short sellingAugust 4, 2026
52-week range and performance52-week range of $134.27 to $223.04, down 12.05% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a beta of 0.57StockAnalysis.com quote and statisticsAugust 4, 2026
Technical snapshot5-day SMA near $151.02, 20-day SMA near $146.33, 50-day SMA near $147.62, 100-day SMA near $157.14, 200-day SMA near $164.52, 14-day RSI near 53.13, 14-day ADX near 22.65, 14-day historical volatility near 51.91%, and 20-day average volume near 368,975 sharesBarchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshotsAugust 4, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

This LOPE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, earnings calls, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, regulatory developments, enrollment data, market moves, or macro conditions. This page does not provide individualized financial advice.