New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. research snapshot
EDU AI stock analysis currently views New Oriental Education as a recovering China education platform with a strong brand, a large cash and investment balance, and renewed growth in core education services. The latest reported third quarter of fiscal 2026 showed revenue growth of 19.8% and operating income growth of 44.8%, while new educational initiatives continued to expand. The EDU AI stock forecast remains conditional because private education regulation, competition, student demand, teacher quality, and the weaker East Buy commerce business can change the earnings path. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, EDU closed at $48.55 on July 10 and had an audited price times shares market capitalization of about $7.73 billion. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$48.55, July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
About $7.73 billion by price times shares
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Cash-rich education platform with improving margins, shareholder returns, and material China regulatory risk
Trend status
Neutral to slightly constructive, with price near the 50-day average and below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | New Oriental sells education and test preparation services, overseas study consulting, learning systems and devices, and selected other products. The core education business is more attractive than the lower-margin livestreaming commerce exposure. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from the New Oriental brand, teacher and course content, a broad school network, customer relationships, and operating data. It is meaningful but not absolute because teachers, online distribution, and course formats can be copied or regulated. | Medium-high |
| Management | Executive Chairman Michael Yu, CEO Chenggang Zhou, and CFO and Executive President Zhihui Yang have managed a major business reset. The next test is whether capital returns, AI integration, capacity expansion, and new education products compound value without weakening quality or liquidity. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $5.375 billion and TTM net income to common was about $420.1 million. Q3 FY2026 revenue rose 19.8% year over year, operating income rose 44.8%, and nine month operating margin reached 13.5% versus 11.9% a year earlier. | High |
| Valuation | At $48.55, EDU traded near 18.25x TTM EPS, 1.89x book value, and 11.61x TTM free cash flow using the verified inputs. The valuation leaves room for growth, but the market still needs durable earnings and cash conversion after policy shocks. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The latest snapshot showed price at $48.55, close to the 50-day average of $48.54 and below the 200-day average of $53.97. RSI at 55.93 was neutral to mildly positive, while volume remained modest for a mid-cap ADR. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because changes in PRC education rules, VIE enforcement, student demand, teacher quality, competition, East Buy economics, currency, and ADR sentiment can affect both earnings and the valuation multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | The evidence base is strong for historical data and current disclosures, but an AI model cannot reliably forecast policy decisions, student enrollment, or the future share price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The company is easier to understand than the stock outcome. A durable education franchise and net cash position are visible, but the margin of safety depends on regulation, business mix, and whether recent growth survives normalization. | Medium |
EDU AI stock forecast
The EDU AI stock forecast uses ranges rather than a point target. A three-year sensitivity using $2.66 TTM EPS, 20%, 12%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth, and 22x, 18x, and 12x exit PE assumptions produced $101.10, $67.30, and $23.30 outputs. These are model outputs, not price promises, and they are especially sensitive to regulation, margin normalization, and the value assigned to cash.
$75 to $105
More likely if core education growth remains above 15%, non-academic tutoring and intelligent learning products scale with acceptable retention, operating margins continue to expand, East Buy losses stay contained, and shareholder returns reduce the share count without limiting investment.
$50 to $75
More likely if revenue grows near the low teens, margins hold near recent levels, overseas testing and adult education remain healthy, new initiatives become useful but not dominant, and policy stays stable without a new broad restriction.
$20 to $35
More likely if regulation tightens, student enrollment or pricing weakens, teacher and service quality slips, new initiatives require heavy spending, East Buy remains a drag, or investors apply a lower multiple to China ADRs and education earnings.
EDU AI technical analysis
EDU AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and the latest StockAnalysis technical snapshot available at the cutoff. Price was near the 50-day average and below the 200-day average, while RSI was neutral to mildly positive. This page is static and does not fetch live chart data, so confirm all levels, volume, and event gaps before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $48.55 | NYSE close on July 10, 2026, used for this static page. |
| Near support | $47.00 to $48.00 | The July 2 close near $47.03 and the July 6 low near $47.82 form the nearest recent planning zone. This is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Secondary support | $44.25 to $46.35 | This zone covers the late June trading area from the public price history feed. Recheck the range after earnings or policy news. |
| Near resistance | $50.90 to $53.97 | The May trading area and the 200-day moving average create the next higher supply zone. A breakout needs volume and business confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $48.54 | StockAnalysis snapshot at the July 12 data cutoff. Price was effectively at this intermediate trend reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $53.97 | StockAnalysis snapshot at the July 12 data cutoff. It is a trend reference, not a forecast. |
| Momentum | RSI 55.93 | Neutral to mildly positive momentum in the cited snapshot. RSI alone does not establish a reversal or trend. |
| Volume | 20-day average 470,485 shares | StockAnalysis reported the recent average volume. Treat a move as stronger when price and volume confirm each other. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.18 | The reported five-year beta was below the market average, but beta does not capture sudden China policy, ADR, or earnings gaps. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $44.25 | A sustained break below the recent support zone weakens this recovery framework and requires a fresh review of earnings, policy, and liquidity. |
EDU AI trading strategy
The EDU AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with enrollment, margins, cash, policy, and shareholder-return data.
Watch for EDU to hold the $47.00 to $48.00 area, reclaim the $50.90 to $53.97 zone with stronger volume, and receive confirmation from core education growth and operating margin. Treat a move above the 200-day average as more credible when it is supported by reported results.
Define position size and risk before entry. A failed recovery or decisive close below $44.25 can serve as a rules-based invalidation condition.
If EDU revisits the $44.25 to $48.00 planning zone without a new policy or earnings break, wait for stabilization and compare price action with student enrollment, deferred revenue, cash generation, and the education business mix.
Do not average down solely because the price fell. The setup breaks if support fails alongside weaker enrollment, lower margins, or a new regulatory restriction.
Track educational services revenue, overseas test preparation, adult and university student courses, non-academic tutoring enrollment, intelligent learning paid users, operating margin, deferred revenue, cash and investments, buybacks, dividends, and policy notices.
Refresh the scenario after the July 29, 2026 annual result, material PRC policy changes, major enrollment updates, changes in the VIE framework, or a large shift in East Buy performance. Do not rely on stale technical levels after a high-impact event.
Investment research summary
New Oriental monetizes demand for learning, testing, overseas study, and education-related products. Customers pay for teaching quality, exam preparation, guidance, convenience, and outcomes. The company is strongest when education services drive repeat demand and the brand lowers customer acquisition friction.
The potential moat is a trusted brand, a large teacher and course system, a broad service network, student and family relationships, and data from learning products. It is a service and execution moat rather than a patent or network-effect moat, and regulation can change its usable scope.
The thesis fails if PRC authorities restrict a profitable education category, families reduce spending, teaching quality becomes inconsistent, AI tools commoditize course delivery, or new initiatives require more capital than they return. The weaker East Buy commerce business is a reminder that a familiar brand does not make every adjacent business attractive.
Michael Yu remains Executive Chairman, Chenggang Zhou is CEO, and Zhihui Yang is Executive President and CFO. Management has navigated a major policy shock, reduced the role of livestreaming commerce, expanded education initiatives, and authorized dividends and buybacks. The next test is disciplined reinvestment without sacrificing compliance or teaching quality.
Demand for English testing, overseas study support, adult education, and digital learning remains structurally relevant in China. AI can improve personalization and content delivery, but it can also lower barriers to entry. The category is attractive only when policy, customer willingness to pay, and service quality align.
At $48.55 and about $7.73 billion of market value, EDU was near 18.25x TTM EPS, 1.89x book value, and 11.61x TTM free cash flow using the verified inputs. StockAnalysis estimated about $4.00 billion of net cash after debt. The margin of safety comes from liquidity and cash generation, but it is reduced if cash is trapped, regulation changes, or earnings normalize sharply.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest NYSE close | $48.55 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis price overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $7.73B, calculated from 159.15M shares | StockAnalysis and financial rigor market-cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $5.375B, about 12.12% year over year | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis, cross-checked with SEC periods | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | Education and test preparation $3.456B; overseas study consulting $516.4M | SEC 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue and operating income | $1.417B revenue, up 19.8%; $180.3M operating income, up 44.8% | New Oriental Q3 FY2026 release | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income to common | $420.1M | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $4.802B on February 28, 2026, before separately considering other deposits and restricted cash | New Oriental Q3 balance sheet and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $665.5M, or $4.18 per share, from the standardized TTM feed | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Shareholder return plan | $1.20 per ADS FY2026 dividend and a $300M buyback authorization; 3.3M ADSs repurchased for $184.3M by April 21, 2026 | New Oriental Q3 FY2026 release and SEC 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $48.54; 200-day average $53.97; RSI 55.93; beta 0.18; average volume 470,485 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Confirm current filings, prices, technical data, regulations, and your own risk tolerance before making any financial decision.
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