LKQ Corporation research snapshot
LKQ AI stock analysis currently sees LKQ Corporation as the leading auto recycler and aftermarket parts distributor in North America and Europe, with a growing specialty vehicle accessories segment. The stock traded at $25.14 on July 8, 2026, down sharply from a 52-week high near $39.77 and a multi-year high above $55 in 2021. The business generated about $13.8 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and $515 million in net income, but organic volume has been soft in North America and Europe, margins are under pressure from inflation and mix, and the company relies on acquisitions to supplement organic growth. The forward P/E of 8.7x and a 4.6% dividend yield reflect these challenges. The LKQ AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$25.14
Market cap
$6.76 billion verified market cap
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Low forward P/E and a 4.6% dividend yield offset a declining organic sales trend, margin compression, and acquisition-dependent growth in a fragmented auto parts distribution market
Trend status
Long-term downtrend as the stock trades below its 200-day moving average after falling from the 2025 high near $40
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | LKQ is the largest end-of-life vehicle recycler and a leading distributor of aftermarket collision and mechanical parts in North America and Europe, operating across Wholesale-North America, Europe, Specialty, and Self Service segments. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Scale, salvage vehicle acquisition networks, multi-region distribution infrastructure, and regulatory/recycling expertise create barriers, but the business lacks pricing power and faces competition from OEM parts, other recyclers, and ecommerce parts distributors. | Medium |
| Management | Justin Jude became CEO in 2023 following a transition from Nick Zarcone. Management has focused on margin improvement, tuck-in acquisitions, European integration, and returning capital via dividends and buybacks, but organic trends remain a concern. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of about $13.8 billion and net income of about $515 million reflect soft organic growth in North America and Europe partially offset by acquisition contributions and modest margin recovery. | High |
| Valuation | At $25.14, LKQ trades at about 13.1x trailing EPS, 8.7x forward EPS, 0.48x revenue, 1.02x book value, and 8.6x levered free cash flow, with a 4.6% dividend yield. Multiples are near historical lows. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price is in a long-term downtrend, trading near the low end of a $24 to $40 range and well below the 200-day moving average after falling from a 2025 peak near $40. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include soft organic sales, EV transition reducing parts demand, margin pressure, acquisition integration, high debt (total debt/equity near 81%), tariff exposure on imported parts, and a shareholder class action lawsuit. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Historical reported-data confidence is high. Confidence in future returns is lower because organic volume, margins, acquisition performance, and end-market demand are hard to predict despite low valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | LKQ offers a low valuation and a solid dividend yield, but the operating headwinds and secular EV risk reduce the certainty of a near-term re-rating. | Medium-low |
LKQ AI stock forecast
The LKQ AI stock forecast uses the July 8, 2026 price reference of $25.14, trailing EPS of $1.92, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $16.30, a base value near $28.90, and a bullish value near $40.90 before any dividend effect. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$36 to $44
More likely if organic North American and European volumes stabilize and recover, margins expand through cost actions and mix improvement, acquisition integration proceeds smoothly, the dividend grows, and the market re-rates LKQ toward a mid-teens earnings multiple on improving fundamentals.
$26 to $32
More likely if organic growth remains tepid but flattish, modest margin recovery and tuck-in acquisitions support low single-digit EPS growth, the dividend stays intact, and the valuation hovers near a low-teens earnings multiple.
$14 to $19
More likely if organic sales continue declining, margins compress further, a major acquisition disappoints or integration costs rise, the dividend is cut, the class action lawsuit creates liability, or the EV transition accelerates parts-demand disruption.
LKQ AI technical analysis
LKQ AI technical analysis is bearish as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. LKQ closed at $25.14 on July 8 after a multi-year decline from the 2021 peak above $55 and a 2025 peak near $40. The 52-week range is $23.98 to $39.77, with the stock near the bottom of that band. These are reference levels, not certainty about the next move.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.14 | July 8, 2026 closing price from Yahoo Finance and corroborating market quotes. |
| Immediate support | $23.50 to $24.50 | This zone covers the recent 52-week low near $23.98 and the low-to-mid $24 area tested in early July 2026. |
| Deeper support | $20 to $22 | This range represents the next structural support area below the 52-week low, based on pre-2020 price levels. |
| Near resistance | $28 to $30 | This range covers the early 2026 congestion area and the first significant overhead zone for any bounce. |
| Upper resistance | $36 to $40 | This band includes the 2025 high near $40 and the upper end of the current 52-week range. |
| Moving averages | 200-day SMA well above price | Price is significantly below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish long-term structure. |
| Momentum | Negative long-term, mixed short-term | The multi-year trend is clearly down, but the stock has found some stability in the $24 to $26 range in recent weeks. |
| Volume | Average volume near 2.9 to 3.0 million shares | Monitor volume on a break below $24 for confirmation of a new leg lower, or on a rally through $28 for buying conviction. |
| Volatility | Moderate, beta about 0.82 | LKQ has below-market beta and relatively contained daily moves for a value-stock turnaround situation. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close above $36 | A decisive break above the upper multi-month resistance zone would weaken the bearish technical picture and suggest a potential trend change. |
LKQ AI trading strategy
The LKQ AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines technical levels with organic sales trends, segment margins, acquisition pipeline, debt management, dividend coverage, and any material change to management guidance or legal developments.
In a clear downtrend, the primary setup is to wait for a sustained base-building phase near support before considering a long-side position. Watch for LKQ to hold the $24 to $25 area on above-average volume and build a compressed range over several weeks.
Any sustained close below $24 with strong volume would signal further downside. Short-side setups are possible if the stock fails at resistance near $28 to $30 and resumes the downtrend.
If LKQ drops toward $24, evaluate whether the decline reflects temporary organic softness or a more fundamental change in the earnings power of the business. Compare the lower price with trailing free cash flow, dividend yield, and replacement-cost value of the distribution network.
Do not assume a lower price is automatically attractive. Tariff, class action, or EV-transition catalysts that threaten earnings should reduce conviction in any reversion trade.
Track organic same-store sales growth in Wholesale-North America and Europe, segment EBITDA margins, salvage vehicle acquisition costs, acquisition pipeline and integration progress, free cash flow conversion, net leverage, dividend payout ratio, and any updates related to the ongoing class action litigation.
Position sizing should reflect that LKQ is a cyclical value stock in an industry facing structural EV transition risk, not a predictable growth or subscription business.
Investment research summary
Customers pay LKQ for lower-cost replacement vehicle parts sourced from salvage, aftermarket manufacturing, and recycling operations, backed by a nationwide and pan-European distribution network that delivers parts quickly to collision and mechanical repair shops.
LKQ benefits from scale in salvage vehicle acquisition, a multi-region distribution footprint, recycling expertise, and relationships with insurance companies and repair chains. These advantages help maintain share, but the aftermarket parts industry remains fragmented and price competitive, with limited pricing power.
The thesis fails if organic sales continue to decline in North America and Europe, margins stay compressed, a major acquisition disappoints, debt becomes a constraint, the dividend is cut, the class action lawsuit produces a material liability, or the EV transition permanently reduces the addressable parts market.
Justin Jude became CEO in 2023, continuing a strategy of margin improvement, disciplined acquisitions, European integration, and shareholder returns. The key question is whether management can stabilize organic growth and restore margins in a challenging end-market environment.
The auto parts distribution industry benefits from an aging vehicle fleet, increasing miles driven, and insurance-backed collision repair demand. However, the shift toward electric vehicles (fewer moving parts, less frequent mechanical repair), parts inflation, and supply chain normalization are headwinds.
At $25.14, the market is pricing in continued earnings and margin pressure with little recovery premium. Margin of safety would improve if organic trends stabilize, margins start recovering, and the dividend remains covered by free cash flow. The current P/E and P/FCF multiples are near multi-year lows.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LKQ quote reference | $25.14 close on July 8, 2026 | Yahoo Finance LKQ summary quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $6.76 billion reported, $6.76 billion calculated from $25.14 x 268.9 million shares (0.00% variance) | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Yahoo Finance, and market quotes | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $13.79 billion revenue and $515 million net income; revenue up from acquisition contributions but organic trends soft | Yahoo Finance key statistics and company financial reporting | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS, free cash flow, and dividend | GAAP diluted EPS of $1.92, levered free cash flow of about $790 million, and forward dividend of $1.20 per share (4.58% yield) | Yahoo Finance key statistics and dividend data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation metrics | 13.09x trailing EPS, 8.70x forward EPS, 0.48x revenue, 1.02x book value, and 8.55x levered free cash flow | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet snapshot | Cash of about $335 million, total debt/equity near 80.68%, enterprise value of $11.67 billion, and book value per share of about $24.65 | Yahoo Finance key statistics and balance sheet data | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week and historical range | 52-week range $23.98 to $39.77; multi-year high near $55 in 2021; recent price near the bottom of the range | Yahoo Finance summary statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Profitability metrics | Profit margin of 3.75%, return on equity of 8.14%, return on assets of 4.32%, and beta of 0.82 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Segment structure | Operates across Wholesale-North America, Europe, Specialty, and Self Service segments; about 44,000 employees globally; headquartered in Antioch, Tennessee | Yahoo Finance company profile and LKQ corporate filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Bearish $16.30 (base: -2% EPS growth, 9x PE), Base $28.90 (5% growth, 13x PE), Bullish $40.90 (10% growth, 16x PE) over 3 years | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
This LKQ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change.
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