Liberty Energy Inc. research snapshot
LBRT AI stock analysis currently reads Liberty Energy as a well-run hydraulic fracturing and completion services provider with strong operational execution, but the valuation and earnings are tied to the North American natural gas and oil drilling cycle. At the data cutoff, the reference quote was $27.17 (previous close), market capitalization was about $4.43 billion, and the AI rating was neutral for business execution but cautious on commodity-cycle risk and the forward P/E of 66x. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$27.17
Market cap
About $4.43 billion using Yahoo Finance shares outstanding
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Cyclical energy service company, decent execution, commodity-dependent valuation
Trend status
Short-term pullback after strong YTD rally from 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Liberty Energy provides hydraulic fracturing, wireline, proppant delivery, and related completion services to onshore oil and gas producers in North America. The business is operationally well-regarded but is inherently cyclical and tied to E&P capital spending. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, fleet technology (including Tier-4 DGB dual-fuel frac fleets), sand mine integration, and customer relationships. However, the pressure pumping market has low barriers to entry and has historically suffered from overcapacity. | Low-medium |
| Management | Founder Chris Wright built the company from a startup into a top-tier frac service provider and served as Executive Chairman after stepping down as CEO. Ron Gusek is the current CEO. Management has a strong operational reputation but the convertible note issuance in March 2026 added balance sheet complexity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue (TTM) is about $4.05 billion with net income of roughly $150 million. FY2025 results showed improving utilization and pricing. Q1 2026 earnings and revenue beat estimates. The company reinstated a quarterly dividend of $0.0875 per share. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At about $27.17, the trailing P/E is near 29.9x but the forward P/E is about 66.2x, implying expected earnings compression. Enterprise value of $5.36 billion trades at 1.32x revenue and 7.40x EBITDA. The stock is valued like a cyclical company near the peak of its earnings cycle. | Medium |
| Technical trend | After rallying from a 52-week low of $9.90 to a high of $34.48, LBRT has pulled back roughly 21% to the $27 area. The stock is still up roughly 95% over the past year. Near-term momentum is soft after the sharp pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Major risks include commodity price declines, E&P spending cuts, frac market overcapacity, the customer concentration in the Permian Basin, the convertible note dilution risk, negative free cash flow (TTM), and the inherently cyclical nature of well completion services. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financial and market data, medium for forward-looking forecasts that depend on commodity prices and industry utilization rates. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Lower than AI data confidence because even verified data does not remove the inherent uncertainty of commodity cycles and the frac market supply-demand balance. | Medium-low |
LBRT AI stock forecast
The LBRT AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise prediction. Pricing depends on North American natural gas and oil activity, frac fleet utilization, pricing power, and the company ability to maintain margins in a competitive market. The current stock price near $27.17 with a forward P/E above 66x suggests the market expects earnings to decline from current levels.
$32 to $38
More likely if natural gas and oil prices remain supportive, E&P customers maintain or increase completion activity, Liberty continues to gain market share with its Tier-4 DGB fleet, free cash flow turns positive, and the stock reclaims and holds above the $32 to $34 resistance zone.
$18 to $28
More likely if the frac market remains adequately supplied, pricing stabilizes near current levels, completion activity is steady but not growing, and Liberty generates modest earnings with occasional quarters of negative FCF as it invests in fleet technology and the sand mines.
$10 to $16
More likely if natural gas prices weaken, E&P capital spending is cut, the frac market returns to overcapacity and pricing pressure, Liberty faces cash flow strain from the convertible notes, or a broader energy recession reduces completion activity.
LBRT AI technical analysis
LBRT AI technical analysis uses the July 11 close and pullback from the 52-week high. The stock rallied from $9.90 to $34.48 before pulling back roughly 21% to the $27 area. Yahoo Finance showed a 50-day moving average that has been tested during the pullback, with the stock still well above its 200-day moving average. The RSI has likely moderated from overbought levels after the sharp rally.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $27.17 | Yahoo Finance reported the previous close at $27.17 as of the data cutoff. This represents roughly a 21% pullback from the 52-week high. |
| Near support | $24 to $26 | The area near $24 to $26 represents prior consolidation levels and potential support during the pullback. A break below would suggest deeper correction. |
| Key support | $18 to $20 | The $18 to $20 zone represents a significant support area from earlier in 2026. A decline to this level would represent roughly a 30% to 35% correction from the peak. |
| Near resistance | $30 to $32 | The first resistance zone above the current price. The stock would need to reclaim this area to suggest the pullback is over. |
| 52-week high | $34.48 | A move back above $34.48 would establish a new 52-week high and confirm the uptrend is intact after the pullback. |
| 52-week low | $9.90 | The 52-week low of $9.90 set in July 2025 reflects the depth of the prior downturn and is roughly 64% below the current price. |
| Momentum | Bearish short-term after pullback | After a 95%+ rally from the 52-week low, the stock has pulled back roughly 21%. Short-term momentum is negative but the long-term trend remains positive as of the data cutoff. |
| Volume | About 3.95 million average daily volume | Yahoo Finance reported average volume near 3.95 million shares. Good liquidity allows for reasonable execution sizes. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.53 (5Y) or 1.19 (some sources) | Beta estimates vary by time period and source. The stock has shown significant price swings over the past year, consistent with the energy sector and the rally from the 52-week low. |
| Invalidation | Close below $18 | A close below the $18 to $20 support zone would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure and suggest a deeper correction may be underway. |
LBRT AI trading strategy
The LBRT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not a personalized buy, sell, or hold recommendation. Traders should pair any setup with position sizing, stop logic, earnings dates, commodity price trends, and news about E&P activity levels.
Given the strong YTD rally, a trend-following approach would wait for the pullback to stabilize and LBRT to reclaim the $30 to $32 area as support before treating the uptrend as confirmed for continuation.
A fail to hold above $24 or a close below $18 would invalidate the bullish setup. Position sizing should account for energy sector volatility and commodity price sensitivity.
If LBRT pulls back toward the $22 to $24 zone without a thesis break (stable commodity prices, steady E&P activity), a mean-reversion trade toward the $28 to $30 area could be considered with tight risk controls.
Define maximum loss before entry. Do not average down. Monitor natural gas and crude oil prices, E&P earnings calls for capital spending guidance, and Liberty quarterly results for utilization and pricing commentary.
Track Liberty Energy quarterly revenue, net income, adjusted EBITDA, frac fleet utilization, average active fleets, pricing trends, the convertible note overhang, sand mine economics, and E&P customer budgets for the coming quarters.
Lower confidence if the stock rallies on sentiment without improving cash flow and margins. Watch the ratio of levered FCF to debt service, especially with the $475 million convertible notes issued in March 2026.
Investment research summary
Liberty Energy is paid by oil and gas producers to complete wells through hydraulic fracturing and related services. Customers pay for fleet time, proppant, wireline, logistics, and data analytics. The business depends on the level of North American drilling and completion activity, which in turn depends on commodity prices.
Scale, fleet technology (Tier-4 DGB dual-fuel and natural gas frac fleets), vertical integration into sand mining, and customer relationships create some competitive advantages. However, the pressure pumping industry has historically been characterized by low barriers, overcapacity, and pricing cycles that compress margins for all players.
The thesis fails if natural gas prices decline, E&P customers cut completion budgets, the frac market returns to overcapacity, Liberty pricing power erodes, the convertible notes create balance sheet strain, or if the company fails to generate positive free cash flow over the cycle.
Founder Chris Wright led the company from a startup to a major frac service provider and moved to Executive Chairman. Ron Gusek serves as CEO. Management has a strong operational track record but the convertible note issuance and the CFO share sale in June 2026 warrant monitoring for governance signals.
North American natural gas and oil production remain at elevated levels but face policy uncertainty, potential oversupply, and the energy transition narrative. The frac market is in a moderate upcycle after a severe downturn in 2024 to 2025, but the sustainability of current pricing and utilization is uncertain.
At roughly $4.43 billion market cap and 29.9x trailing P/E but 66.2x forward P/E, LBRT has no traditional margin of safety. The stock prices current earnings at a significant premium and expects near-term earnings compression. A multiple contraction or earnings disappointment could lead to substantial downside.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Previous close price | $27.17 | Yahoo Finance LBRT summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $4.43 billion, verified from $27.17 x roughly 163 million shares outstanding | Yahoo Finance and WallStreetZen LBRT overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.36 billion | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $4.05 billion | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $150.32 million | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $0.91 | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Trailing P/E | 29.9x (Yahoo) to 26.3x (WallStreetZen) | Yahoo Finance and WallStreetZen LBRT | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 66.2x | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Price-to-book (mrq) | 2.28x (Yahoo) to 2.05x (WallStreetZen) | Yahoo Finance and WallStreetZen LBRT | July 12, 2026 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.32x | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.40x | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Total cash (mrq) | $699.15 million | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | 83.3% | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow (TTM) | -$190.94 million | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow (TTM) | $426 million | WallStreetZen LBRT overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Profit margin | 3.71% (Yahoo) to 3.7% (WallStreetZen) | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $0.35 annual forward, yield 1.28% to 1.43% | Yahoo Finance LBRT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $9.90 to $34.48 | Yahoo Finance LBRT summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Average daily volume | About 3.95 million shares | Yahoo Finance LBRT summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Outstanding shares | Approximately 163 million | WallStreetZen LBRT (163,191,416) and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
This LBRT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Liberty Energy shares. Forecast scenarios are based on available publicly sourced data at the stated cutoff date of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if commodity prices, E&P activity, frac market utilization, operational execution, or capital structure outcomes differ from these scenarios. Liberty Energy has negative levered free cash flow on a TTM basis and carries convertible notes that may dilute existing shareholders.
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