Kontoor Brands, Inc. research snapshot
KTB AI stock analysis currently reads Kontoor Brands as an apparel company in the middle of a deliberate portfolio transformation. Management closed a $900 million acquisition of Helly Hansen, signed a definitive agreement to sell the Lee business to Authentic Brands Group for up to $1 billion, approved a new $750 million buyback, and raised full year guidance. The remaining portfolio is anchored by Wrangler, the US western and workwear denim leader with 16 straight quarters of market share gains, and Helly Hansen, a technical outdoor and workwear brand with early double-digit growth. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, KTB traded near $83.74 with a market capitalization near $4.63 billion and a dividend yield near 2.53%. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$83.74
Market cap
$4.63 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Focused apparel portfolio in active transformation: Wrangler plus Helly Hansen, with Lee being divested and a new buyback
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day ($79.42) and 200-day ($72.11) moving averages, near the $88.96 52-week high set on July 17, 2026, after a run from the $53.55 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Kontoor designs, sources, markets and distributes denim, workwear and technical outdoor apparel. Wrangler is the US authority in western and workwear bottoms with 16 consecutive quarters of share gains in men and women as measured by Circana, while Helly Hansen adds a premium technical outdoor and workwear business with a number one position in sailing. Lee is being divested. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from heritage brand equity, Wrangler scale and distribution with mass merchants, Helly Hansen technical credibility and its leading sailing position, and a global sourcing and cost platform. Consumer switching costs are low, and private label and athleisure remain the main competitive threats. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chair and CEO Scott Baxter and CFO Joe Alkire have been decisive: they closed the $900 million Helly Hansen deal, agreed to sell Lee for up to $1 billion, replaced the buyback with a $750 million authorization, and committed to below 1.5x net leverage by end of 2026. Execution is now the swing factor. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 20.9% to $3.15 billion on the Helly Hansen consolidation, while net income fell to $227.45 million on financing, integration and tariff costs. Q1 2026 continuing operations revenue rose about 45% to $613.32 million, adjusted EPS rose 67% to $1.06 versus consensus of $1.14, and full year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $6.60 to $6.70 including Lee. | High |
| Valuation | At $83.74, KTB trades near 16.9x trailing earnings and 15.4x forward earnings, with a 2.53% dividend yield and a free cash flow yield near 8.6%. The multiple is reasonable for a transformed, higher growth apparel portfolio, but it is not distressed and assumes the plan executes. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | KTB trades above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after rallying from a $53.55 52-week low to an $88.96 52-week high on July 17, 2026, then pulling back to $83.74. Momentum is neutral with RSI near 51 and beta near 0.90. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are US consumer spending sensitivity, tariff and cotton cost inflation, private label and athleisure competition, execution of the Lee divestiture and Helly Hansen integration, net debt of about $1.1 billion, and short interest near 9.6% of float. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
KTB AI stock forecast
The KTB AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $83.74 quote and the raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.60 to $6.70 including Lee, with continuing operations adjusted EPS guided to $5.70 to $5.80 before unmitigated Lee-related expenses. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $55 to $70, a base area near $90 to $100, and a bullish area near $105 to $120 before dividends.
$105 to $120
More likely if the Lee divestiture closes near the announced up to $1 billion terms, buyback proceeds are deployed quickly, Helly Hansen grows at a double-digit pace in the US and Alps with operating margin moving from high single digits toward the mid-teens, Wrangler keeps gaining share, leverage falls below 1.5x, and the market re-rates KTB to roughly 17x to 19x forward earnings.
$90 to $100
Reflects Lee closing around $750 million to $1 billion with proceeds funding buybacks, overhead and other costs reallocated from Lee being mitigated over 12 to 18 months, Wrangler growing at a low single-digit rate, Helly Hansen growing at a high single-digit to low double-digit rate, and EPS progressing toward the street view of about $7 for FY2027 at roughly a 14x to 16x multiple.
$55 to $70
More likely if US consumer spending weakens, tariff and input costs compress margins beyond pricing power, Helly Hansen growth or integration disappoints, the Lee divestiture is delayed or completes at a lower price, or leverage stays elevated, pushing the multiple toward 10x to 11x forward earnings.
KTB AI technical analysis
KTB AI technical analysis uses current chart data through the July 31, 2026 close. KTB is in a clear uptrend above its rising 50-day ($79.42) and 200-day ($72.11) moving averages, with the stock near $83.74 after touching an $88.96 52-week high on July 17, 2026 and a $53.55 52-week low about a year earlier.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $88.96 - $91 | The 52-week high set on July 17, 2026, with psychological resistance near $90. A close above this zone on volume would confirm trend continuation. |
| Resistance 2 | $95 - $97 | Overhead liquidity zone from the highs around early 2025. Reaching it likely requires sustained earnings momentum and continued buyback execution. |
| Support 1 | $79 - $81 | The 50-day moving average near $79.42 and the early July pullback lows. This is the first level where dip buyers have stepped in. |
| Support 2 | $72 - $75 | The 200-day moving average near $72.11 and the June consolidation area. Holding this zone keeps the longer term uptrend intact. |
| Momentum (RSI) | Neutral near 51 | RSI is in neutral territory after the run off the 52-week low, giving room to move in either direction before extreme readings. |
| Volume trend | Above average on rally days | Average 20-day volume is near 679,000 shares. Buying volume has been healthy on the advance from the June lows. |
| Volatility (Beta) | 0.90 | Beta near 0.90 means KTB is slightly less volatile than the broader market, so standard position sizing with defined stops is appropriate. |
| Invalidation level | Sustained close below $72 | A sustained close below the 200-day moving average near $72 would break the uptrend structure and likely open a move toward the $65 to $70 zone. |
KTB AI trading strategy
The KTB AI trading strategy is a framework, not personalized advice. It outlines trend-following and mean-reversion setups with specific risk controls, and position sizing should be adjusted to your own risk tolerance.
Enter on pullbacks toward the $79 to $81 support zone if RSI holds in the 40 to 60 range and volume confirms. Initial target near the $88.96 to $91 resistance zone, extended target at $95 to $97. Trail stops using the 50-day moving average.
Initial stop near $75, below the 50-day moving average zone. Risk no more than 1-2% of portfolio per position. With beta near 0.90, position sizing can follow your normal equity allocation.
If KTB pulls back sharply toward $79 to $81 on no company-specific news, look for RSI below 35 and a volume spike, then target a bounce back toward the 20-day moving average. This works best in a range-bound tape near quarterly earnings.
Stop near $75. If price gaps below $79 on heavy volume, do not add. Keep the mean-reversion position smaller than the trend position.
Use the Pineify Pine Script builder to set up automated alerts for volume spikes, moving average crossovers, and breaks of the $88.96 or $72 levels. Reassess the position when KTB reports Q2 2026 earnings on August 12, 2026 and on Lee divestiture updates.
If management cuts guidance, the Lee deal fails or is repriced lower, or Helly Hansen integration stumbles, exit the position regardless of technical levels. The 2.53% dividend provides a partial income buffer during drawdowns.
Investment research summary
Kontoor Brands sells function and activity based apparel. Customers pay for Wrangler heritage and fit in western, workwear and casual denim, and for Helly Hansen technical performance in outdoor and workwear. The combined outdoor, workwear and denim markets are roughly $400 billion globally, and management is concentrating all resources on the two brands with the clearest growth runway.
Brand equity is the core moat: Wrangler (1904) dominates US western and workwear bottoms with 16 consecutive quarters of Circana share gains, and Helly Hansen (1877) holds a leading position in sailing and technical outdoor gear. Wrangler benefits from scale with mass merchants, while Helly Hansen adds premium technical credibility. Switching costs are low and private label is the persistent threat.
The thesis fails if: (1) US consumer spending weakens and denim or discretionary workwear demand drops, (2) tariffs and cotton costs keep compressing margins beyond pricing power, (3) Helly Hansen fails to reach double-digit growth and a path to mid-teens operating margin, (4) the Lee divestiture is delayed or repriced and stranded overhead stays on the P&L, or (5) leverage stays elevated while interest costs rise.
Scott Baxter and Joe Alkire have run a disciplined capital playbook: Project Genius cost savings, the $900 million Helly Hansen acquisition, the planned up to $1 billion Lee divestiture, a $750 million buyback authorization, voluntary debt repayments, and a stated goal of under 1.5x net leverage by the end of 2026. Insider ownership is modest near 1.7%, and key-person risk is concentrated in a small leadership team.
The outdoor, workwear and denim categories carry structural tailwinds. Premiumization of workwear, outdoor participation, and the shift toward function and activity based apparel favor Wrangler and Helly Hansen. Wrangler female revenue is only about 10% of total, offering white space, while Helly Hansen aided brand awareness in US sport is below 30%, suggesting a long penetration runway.
At $83.74 and about 16.9x trailing earnings, KTB is reasonably priced for a portfolio in transformation, with a free cash flow yield near 8.6% and a 2.53% dividend. The base scenario range is $90 to $100, the bullish range is $105 to $120, and the bearish range is $55 to $70. The margin of safety is modest at the current price and depends on the Lee deal closing and Helly Hansen delivering.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price (Jul 31, 2026 close) | $83.74 | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.63 billion | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $53.55 - $88.96 | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 16.89 | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 15.37 | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $4.94 | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.34 billion | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.15 billion (+20.9% YoY) | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue (continuing ops) | $613.32 million | StockAnalysis / Q1 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EPS | $1.06 (consensus $1.14) | TheFly / Q1 2026 earnings | August 3, 2026 |
| Helly Hansen acquisition value | $900 million | Kontoor Brands M&A announcement / earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Lee divestiture to Authentic Brands | Up to $1 billion ($750M plus up to $250M earnout) | Authentic Brands Group / Reuters / WSJ | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend yield (indicated) | 2.53% ($2.12 per year) | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y monthly) | 0.90 | StockAnalysis / Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| 50-day / 200-day moving averages | $79.42 / $72.11 | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Net debt (Q1 2026) | About $1.1 billion | Kontoor Brands Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus / average target | Buy / $93.10 | StockAnalysis forecast (10 analysts) | August 3, 2026 |
This KTB AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All forecast scenarios are based on publicly available data as of August 3, 2026, and may be materially different from actual future outcomes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The AI analysis has limitations described in the research quality check section.
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