Kennametal Inc. research snapshot
KMT AI stock analysis currently reads Kennametal Inc. as a cyclical industrial technology company with two segments, Metal Cutting and Infrastructure, serving aerospace, automotive, energy, mining, and general engineering end markets. The stock has recovered sharply from its 52-week low of $17.62 and now trades near $34.90, but the recent earnings surge is heavily tied to an unprecedented rise in tungsten pricing, and analysts keep a Reduce consensus while short interest sits near 7.8% of float. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $34.90 on August 3, 2026, with an implied market capitalization of about $2.66 billion. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$34.90
Market cap
$2.66 billion
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
Cyclical industrial with a strong tungsten-price-driven earnings tailwind but elevated reversal and execution risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, below the 100-day moving average, consolidating after a strong recovery from the 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Kennametal designs and manufactures tungsten carbide cutting tools, engineered wear components, ceramics, and advanced materials for aerospace, automotive, energy, mining, and general industrial customers worldwide, split between Metal Cutting and Infrastructure segments. | Medium-high |
| Moat | A moderate moat comes from proprietary materials science, application engineering expertise, global distribution relationships, and long customer qualification cycles that create switching costs, but competitors such as Sandvik, IMC Group, and Ceratizit offer overlapping capabilities. | Medium |
| Management | Sanjay Chowbey is President and CEO and led the Q3 FY2026 beat and the large FY2026 guidance raise. A board chair transition to Joseph Alvarado is set for October 2026. Management should be judged on whether the tungsten tailwind is reinvested without excessive working capital strain. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $2.14 billion and TTM net income about $137 million. Q3 FY2026 adjusted EPS of $0.77 beat the $0.68 consensus, and FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $3.75 to $4.00. Working capital and free cash flow were pressured by tungsten-driven inventory. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $34.90, KMT trades near 19.7x TTM EPS and about 2.0x book value. Forward valuation looks cheap only if the raised adjusted EPS guidance, implying roughly 9x, proves durable. The average analyst target of about $34.86 to $35.79 sits near the current price. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | KMT is above its 50-day moving average near $34.42 and its 200-day moving average near $33.44, but below the 100-day near $35.93, with RSI near 52.5 and ADX near 10.5 indicating a weak, neutral-to-constructive trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if tungsten prices reverse, working capital stays strained, a manufacturing downturn hits aerospace, automotive, or energy end markets, tariffs or commodity costs compress margins, or the elevated short interest signals a sharper than expected re-rating. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials, market-cap math, and technical mapping. Lower for forward share-price outcomes given the commodity-driven earnings swing and the unusual gap between TTM GAAP EPS and raised adjusted guidance. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. Near-term earnings momentum is real, but it is concentrated in tungsten pricing, and the Reduce consensus plus insider selling temper investment certainty at the current price. | Medium-low |
KMT AI stock forecast
The KMT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $34.90 cutoff close of August 3, 2026. The scenarios blend the financial-rigor three-scenario model with the company's raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.75 to $4.00 and current analyst price targets of $31.00 to $47.50. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$42 to $48
More likely if tungsten prices stay elevated, FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.75 to $4.00 is delivered, aerospace and energy end markets keep improving, and the stock re-rates toward 11x to 12x forward adjusted earnings. The 52-week high of $43.81 and Jefferies' $47.50 target mark the upper frame.
$31 to $37
More likely if tungsten pricing normalizes but sales and margins hold, landing near the average analyst target of about $34.86 to $35.79 and the low targets of $31.00 from Morgan Stanley and $34.00 from JPMorgan and DA Davidson.
$24 to $30
More likely if tungsten prices reverse, working capital stays under strain, adjusted EPS normalizes toward the pre-raised guidance level, and the stock de-rates below the 200-day moving average near $33.44 and the 50-day range low near $31.76.
KMT AI technical analysis
KMT AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 close of $34.90 and Barchart technical data available at the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The setup is neutral to constructive: price sits above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages but below the 100-day, with RSI near 52.5 and ADX near 10.5 suggesting no strong trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $34.90 | Latest verified close used for this page, dated August 3, 2026. |
| Near resistance | $35.93 to $36.95 | The 100-day moving average sits near $35.93 and the 50-day range high near $36.95, based on Barchart technical data. |
| Higher resistance | $43.81 | The 52-week high serves as the next major resistance zone above the moving averages. |
| Near support | $33.44 | The 200-day moving average near $33.44 forms the key support zone. |
| Deeper support | $31.76 | The 50-day range low near $31.76 provides additional downside protection. |
| 52-week low | $17.62 | The 52-week low represents a deep invalidation level below the current range. |
| 50-day moving average | About $34.42 | KMT is trading slightly above the 50-day moving average, a mildly constructive signal. |
| 200-day moving average | About $33.44 | Holding above the 200-day moving average supports the medium-term recovery thesis. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52.5, ADX near 10.5 | RSI is neutral and ADX indicates no strong directional trend, so moves lack momentum confirmation. |
| Volume | About 1.95 million shares on Aug 3 vs average near 0.9 million to 1.3 million | The August 3 session traded well above average volume, so a sustained breakout above $36.95 would need continued volume expansion. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.35, ATR about $1.33 | Moderate volatility for an industrial mid-cap, with potential for sharp moves on tungsten prices, earnings, or macro headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $33.44, then $31.76 | A close below the 200-day moving average weakens the recovery; the 50-day range low near $31.76 and the 52-week low of $17.62 are deeper invalidation levels. |
KMT AI trading strategy
The KMT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, tungsten price indicators, the Q4 FY2026 earnings report due August 5, 2026, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for a sustained close above the 100-day moving average near $35.93 and the 50-day range high near $36.95 on rising volume. While price holds above the 200-day moving average near $33.44, the medium-term bias stays constructive.
A close back below the 200-day moving average near $33.44 invalidates the setup.
If KMT pulls back toward the 200-day moving average near $33.44 or the 50-day range low near $31.76 without a negative guidance revision, compare valuation multiples, free cash flow yield, and tungsten price trends before considering a reversion trade.
Do not average down if the pullback follows a tungsten price collapse, a guidance cut, or a downgrade from a major bank.
Track Q4 FY2026 results due August 5, 2026, tungsten prices, segment margins, working capital and inventory trends, free cash flow conversion, and analyst estimate revisions.
Reduce confidence when short interest keeps climbing, insiders keep selling, or adjusted EPS guidance is cut after the tungsten windfall fades.
Investment research summary
Kennametal sells critical consumables and engineered components that manufacturers, miners, and energy companies use to cut, shape, drill, and wear-protect their equipment. Customers pay for reliability, precision, productivity, and lower total cost of ownership.
The moat comes from proprietary tungsten carbide metallurgy, application engineering knowledge, long customer qualification cycles, global distribution relationships, and the breadth of the product portfolio. The moat is moderate, not wide: competitors such as Sandvik, IMC Group, and Ceratizit offer overlapping capabilities.
The thesis fails if tungsten prices reverse and the margin windfall unwinds, manufacturing activity contracts, aerospace or energy end markets slow, customers substitute cheaper alternatives, tariffs disrupt supply chains, or working capital strain from elevated inventory persists.
CEO Sanjay Chowbey delivered a Q3 FY2026 beat and a large FY2026 guidance raise. Key tests include whether the tungsten tailwind is reinvested wisely, working capital is brought back under control, and the board chair transition to Joseph Alvarado in October 2026 proceeds without disruption.
Industrial tooling demand is tied to global manufacturing output, aerospace build rates, oil and gas capital spending, and mining activity. Tungsten prices are currently an outsized swing factor for Kennametal. The company is not in a secular growth industry but plays a necessary role in industrial production.
At $34.90, the stock looks expensive on TTM earnings near 19.7x but much cheaper on the raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.75 to $4.00. The margin of safety depends on whether the tungsten-driven earnings level is durable, and the Reduce consensus plus short interest near 7.8% of float suggest the market doubts durability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMT closing price | $34.90 on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote (CBOE data) | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $2.66 billion, verified as $34.90 x 76.21 million shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $2.14 billion, up about 7.2% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financial data (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $137 million, up about 26% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financial data | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | About $1.77 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | About $74.8 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $106.85 million cash; total debt about $659.6 million; debt-to-equity about 47% | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 earnings | Adjusted EPS $0.77 vs $0.68 consensus; sales $593 million, up 22% year over year; FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $3.75 to $4.00 | Kennametal PR Newswire release, May 6, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue $1.97 billion, down 3.9%; net income $93.1 million, down 14.8% | StockAnalysis.com annual financial data | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day SMA about $34.42; 100-day SMA about $35.93; 200-day SMA about $33.44 | Barchart technical analysis snapshot, August 3, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Reduce consensus with average price target $35.79 (MarketBeat); consensus Sell with target $34.86 (StockAnalysis); targets range $31.00 to $47.50 | MarketBeat analyst forecast and StockAnalysis analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 7.77% of float sold short, about 7.07 days to cover, up about 14.2% month over month | MarketBeat short interest data | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO | Sanjay Chowbey, President and CEO | Kennametal PR Newswire release, May 6, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Board leadership | Joseph Alvarado appointed incoming Chairman effective October 28, 2026; William Lambert to retire in October | PR Newswire board transition release, July 28, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.80 annualized, yield about 2.29%; quarterly dividend $0.20 | StockAnalysis.com dividend data and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Insider ownership | About 1.43% of shares held by insiders; insiders net sold in the past three months | MarketBeat insider trading overview | August 4, 2026 |
This KMT AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, tungsten prices, tariff policy, commodity costs, earnings revisions, end-market data, or macro conditions change.
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