Kirby Corporation research snapshot
KEX AI stock analysis currently reads Kirby Corporation as a durable, asset-heavy transportation and industrial services business rather than a pure growth stock. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, KEX was referenced at $143.75 with market capitalization near $7.63 billion. The AI analysis score is supported by domestic tank-barge scale, long customer relationships, disciplined share repurchases, improving marine conditions, and strong power-generation demand, but the KEX AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because freight cycles, fuel costs, oil and gas weakness, capital spending, debt, and valuation can change the outcome. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$143.75
Market cap
$7.63 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality industrial franchise with marine pricing support and power-generation growth, balanced by cyclical demand, capital intensity, no dividend, and a full valuation
Trend status
Constructive but volatile, with price near the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day moving average while the latest RSI snapshot was weak
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Kirby combines the largest domestic tank-barge franchise in the United States with distribution and services in power generation, commercial and industrial equipment, and oil and gas. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from fleet scale, regulated waterways knowledge, customer relationships, dense operating coverage, maintenance capability, and high replacement cost for a comparable barge network. | Medium-high |
| Management | David W. Grzebinski has served as CEO since 2014 and has allocated capital through fleet investment, acquisitions, debt management, and share repurchases. The next test is preserving returns when marine pricing or power demand normalizes. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $3.36 billion and net earnings attributable to Kirby reached $354.6 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 7% year over year to $844.1 million, while EPS rose 13% to $1.50. | High |
| Valuation | At $143.75, financial_rigor.py calculates about 22.12x TTM EPS, 2.25x book value using the March 2026 book value per share, 18.96x FY2025 free cash flow, and no regular dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest StockAnalysis snapshot showed a 50-day moving average near $142.89, a 200-day moving average near $121.70, RSI near 37.64, and 20-day average volume near 627,641 shares. Price was close to intermediate trend support rather than an obvious momentum extreme. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are freight-rate and utilization cycles, barge oversupply, fuel-cost timing, oil and gas weakness, OEM constraints, maintenance and newbuild spending, leverage, customer concentration, environmental rules, and valuation compression. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because marine pricing, power-generation demand, capital allocation, and market multiples can all change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Kirby has a durable operating position and visible 2026 demand drivers, but the current price requires continued earnings growth and healthy asset returns without a major freight or industrial downturn. | Medium |
KEX AI stock forecast
The KEX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $143.75 reference price and $6.50 TTM EPS. A three year financial_rigor.py framework using 12%, 7%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth with 24x, 20x, and 14x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $219.20, $159.30, and $66.30. These are sensitivity ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends because Kirby does not currently pay a regular dividend.
$205 to $225
More likely if inland and coastal utilization stay high, contract pricing improves, power-generation backlog converts into revenue, OEM constraints ease, oil and gas weakness remains contained, free cash flow funds buybacks, and investors support a premium earnings multiple.
$150 to $170
More likely if marine revenue grows at a low to mid single-digit rate, distribution services remains mixed, 2026 EPS grows near management guidance, capital spending stays disciplined, and the market applies roughly 20x normalized earnings.
$60 to $75
More likely if freight rates fall, utilization weakens, barge supply grows faster than demand, power-generation orders are delayed, oil and gas remains soft, maintenance or newbuild costs rise, EPS contracts, and the market rerates KEX toward a mid-teens multiple.
KEX AI technical analysis
KEX AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 closing reference and the latest StockAnalysis technical snapshot available before the research cutoff. The stock was near its 50-day average and above its 200-day average, but RSI near 37.64 showed weak recent momentum. Because vendor timestamps differ, these are zones for a rules-based review rather than precise trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $143.75 | Macrotrends historical price snapshot for July 10, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the July 12 research date. |
| Near support | $140 to $143 | The StockAnalysis 50-day moving average was near $142.89 in its latest snapshot, making this the first intermediate trend zone to watch. |
| Secondary support | $120 to $123 | The StockAnalysis 200-day moving average was near $121.70, making this the broader trend support zone. |
| Near resistance | $157 to $158 | StockAnalysis reported a 52-week high near $157.69, making this the first major breakout and rejection area. |
| 50-day moving average | $142.89 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price was close to the intermediate moving average, so a sustained hold or loss of this area matters more than a single session. |
| 200-day moving average | $121.70 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price remained above the long-term moving average, keeping the primary trend constructive despite the recent pullback. |
| Momentum | RSI near 37.64 | The latest snapshot showed weak momentum without an extreme oversold reading. RSI can change quickly around earnings and freight news. |
| Volume | About 627,641 shares average over 20 days | StockAnalysis reported the 20-day average volume in its latest statistics snapshot. Compare any breakout with volume expansion. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.83, with cycle and event risk | The quoted beta was below the broad market average, but earnings, freight rates, fuel costs, industrial orders, and guidance can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $140, then $121 | A sustained close below the 50-day zone would weaken the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day zone would signal broader trend damage. |
KEX AI trading strategy
The KEX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an asset-heavy industrial company. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, marine utilization, freight pricing, power-generation backlog, oil and gas activity, capital spending, debt, and explicit invalidation levels.
Watch for KEX to hold the $140 to $143 support zone and reclaim the $157 to $158 resistance band on above-average volume, with confirmation from marine utilization, freight pricing, and power-generation order commentary.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day moving average zone should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If KEX pulls back toward $140 or the $120 to $123 area without deterioration in utilization, contract pricing, backlog, cash flow, or debt metrics, compare price weakness with the long-term fleet and service thesis.
Do not treat a lower share price as proof of value. A freight downturn can reduce earnings and asset returns at the same time.
Track inland and coastal utilization, term and spot pricing, barge additions and retirements, fuel-cost recovery, power-generation backlog, OEM availability, oil and gas demand, free cash flow, capex, debt, buybacks, and management guidance.
Reduce confidence if utilization falls, pricing weakens, backlog slips, capex rises without matching returns, leverage increases, or buybacks continue while operating cash flow deteriorates.
Investment research summary
Kirby moves bulk liquid products through domestic waterways and supplies engines, power-generation systems, parts, and repair services. Customers pay for reliable capacity, regulatory know-how, equipment uptime, and service coverage in markets where interruptions are costly.
The moat is built from a large tank-barge fleet, inland and coastal network density, trained crews, waterway and safety expertise, long customer relationships, maintenance capability, and the capital and time required to reproduce a comparable platform.
The thesis fails if new barge supply outruns demand, freight rates and utilization fall, power-generation orders are delayed, oil and gas weakness spreads, fuel-cost timing compresses margins, capital spending consumes cash, or debt and asset values rise faster than earnings.
David W. Grzebinski has led Kirby since 2014 and has used a mix of organic fleet investment, acquisitions, debt management, and repurchases. The key management question is whether capital allocation stays disciplined when the marine cycle is strong and the stock is expensive.
Domestic waterways remain important for moving petrochemicals, refined products, black oils, and agricultural chemicals, while data-center and industrial demand supports power-generation services. This is a durable infrastructure trend, but not a software-like market, so returns remain tied to asset supply and end-market cycles.
At about 22.12x TTM EPS and 2.25x March 2026 book value, KEX is priced for continued execution rather than distress. The margin of safety improves if the price falls while utilization, backlog, free cash flow, and balance-sheet discipline remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $143.75 | Macrotrends KEX historical PE and price table | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.63 billion | StockAnalysis KEX market capitalization | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 53.50 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Kirby 2025 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.364 billion | Kirby 2025 10-K and StockAnalysis FY2025 financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings attributable to Kirby | $354.6 million | Kirby 2025 results release and StockAnalysis FY2025 financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue grew from $2.247 billion in FY2021 to $3.364 billion in FY2025; net income to common moved from a $246.95 million loss to $354.57 million; FY2025 free cash flow was $405.73 million | StockAnalysis annual income statement, with FY2025 cross-checked to Kirby 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $844.1 million revenue and $1.50 EPS, both up year over year | Kirby Q1 2026 earnings presentation | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 free cash flow | $49.4 million non-GAAP free cash flow | Kirby Q1 2026 earnings presentation | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $58 million cash and $983 million total debt at March 31, 2026 | Kirby Q1 2026 earnings presentation | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $6.50 to $6.51 | StockAnalysis KEX overview and Macrotrends valuation history | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day $142.89, 200-day $121.70, RSI 37.64, beta 0.83, average volume 627,641 | StockAnalysis KEX statistics | July 6, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | EPS growth 5% to 15%, operating cash flow $575 million to $675 million | Kirby Q1 2026 earnings presentation | July 12, 2026 |
This KEX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong.
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