Kaiser Aluminum Corporation research snapshot
KALU AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Kaiser Aluminum as a cyclical specialty aluminum processor whose record Q2 2026 results, positive free cash flow, and improved net leverage have strengthened the fundamental thesis, while the stock still trades well below its June 2026 high. The stock closed at $163.88 on August 3, 2026, up 4.20 or 2.63%, carrying a market capitalization near $2.65 billion and a trailing PE of about 12.2x on TTM EPS of $13.48. Q2 2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $5.53 versus consensus of $2.66, revenue of $1.3 billion versus consensus of $1.08 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of about $166 million, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth guidance to 45% to 55%. Free cash flow turned positive at $87 million on a TTM basis, net leverage improved to 2.1x from 3.4x at year-end 2025, and total liquidity was about $628 million at June 30, 2026. The main caveat is that a meaningful share of 2026 earnings came from favorable metal dynamics including a $27 million metal lag gain, and management explicitly expects those tailwinds to normalize in the second half. Analyst consensus is Hold with a price target of $169.25, and consensus 2027 EPS of about $11.29 signals that the market expects record 2026 earnings to fade. This page is informational research and is not investment advice.
Current price
$163.88 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 4.20 or 2.63% from the $159.68 July 31 close, after opening at $157.53 and trading in a session range of $155.02 to $164.06, with StockAnalysis.com and its S&P Global and CBOE data feeds confirming the same close
Market cap
$2.65 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, cross-validated as $163.88 times 16.20 million shares outstanding, a deviation of 0.18% using the financial_rigor.py market cap check
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Cyclical aluminum processor with improving cash flow and leverage
Trend status
Correcting from the record June 30, 2026 high near $195.96 and consolidating near $164 after a blowout Q2 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Kaiser Aluminum produces semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products for aerospace, packaging, general engineering, and automotive end markets, with Q2 2026 conversion revenue growth of 17% year over year driven by three of four segments. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from aerospace qualifications, the Warrick coated packaging facility, KaiserSelect quality standards, and long-term customer relationships, but aluminum remains a commodity input that limits pricing power. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Keith Harvey and CFO Neal West delivered record Q2 2026 results, raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA growth guidance to 45% to 55%, and improved net leverage from 3.4x to 2.1x, while keeping 2026 capital spending guidance in the $120 million to $130 million range. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue rose to $4.14 billion, up 32.8% year over year, with net income of $227 million and diluted EPS of $13.48. Free cash flow turned positive at $87 million TTM versus negative FCF in both 2024 and 2025. | High |
| Valuation | At 12.2x TTM EPS, 0.64x sales, and about 2.8x book value, KALU is reasonably valued on current earnings, but the forward PE of 16.2x is measured against elevated 2026 EPS that consensus expects to normalize in 2027. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price corrected about 16% from the $195.96 June 30 record high to $163.88, made a late-July low near $150.71, and now trades below the 50-day moving average near $174.57 but above the 200-day moving average near $136.80. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are aluminum price reversal, second-half margin normalization after metal tailwinds, Warrick ramp and qualification execution, net leverage near 2.1x, and weak automotive shipments. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive financial analysis and valuation math. Lower for forward returns because aluminum prices, aerospace build rates, and tariff policy can shift quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Improved from the prior refresh because FCF turned positive, leverage fell, and guidance was raised, but cyclical earnings normalization and a Hold analyst consensus cap certainty at medium-low. | Medium-low |
KALU AI stock forecast
The KALU AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a price promise. Using the August 3, 2026 close near $163.88 and TTM EPS near $13.48, the three-year tested range spans a bearish area near $88, a base area near $182, and a bullish area near $265 before dividends. These outputs depend on EPS normalization, aluminum price trends, aerospace and packaging demand, margin execution at Warrick, and the terminal earnings multiple. Analyst consensus for 2026 EPS is about $13.52, while consensus for 2027 EPS is about $11.29, which shows the market expects 2026 metal tailwinds to fade.
$235 to $280
More likely if aerospace and packaging demand keep growing into 2027, aluminum prices hold near current levels, Warrick margin gains exceed the planned 300 to 400 basis point improvement, and KALU sustains double-digit EPS growth while paying down debt.
$160 to $200
More likely if EPS normalizes toward the 2027 consensus near $11, demand remains strong but metal tailwinds fade as expected, and the market holds a 12x to 14x earnings multiple.
$70 to $100
More likely if aluminum prices retreat sharply, second-half margins compress as metal benefits fade, aerospace order growth slows, or automotive weakness persists while debt stays elevated.
KALU AI technical analysis
KALU AI technical analysis shows a strong cyclical uptrend that has entered a correction. As of the August 3, 2026 close, KALU traded at $163.88, down about 16% from the June 30 record high of $195.96. The stock remains above the 200-day moving average near $136.80 but below the 50-day moving average near $174.57, and it made a late-July swing low near $150.71 before consolidating. Fresh chart confirmation matters before any trade decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $163.88 | StockAnalysis.com showed the August 3, 2026 close at $163.88, up 2.63% on the day. |
| 52-week high | $195.96 | Set on June 30, 2026. The stock corrected about 16% from this high to the current close. |
| 52-week low | $71.44 | StockAnalysis.com 52-week range data. The stock has rallied about 129% from this low. |
| Near support | $155 to $160 | Repeated closes in mid-to-late July established this band as the near-term floor. |
| Key support | $150 to $152 | The July 29 swing low near $150.71. A close below this zone would signal a deeper correction. |
| Deeper support | $136 to $145 | The 200-day moving average near $136.80 and the pre-Q2 2026 consolidation zone. |
| Near resistance | $174 to $176 | The 50-day moving average near $174.57 and the July 24 high zone. |
| Resistance | $180 to $186 | The July 23 post-earnings spike high near $186.50 and the June 22 to June 26 trading range. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI near 48 | Daily RSI near 48 on August 3, 2026 reflects consolidation rather than an overbought or oversold condition. |
| Moving averages | Below 50-day, above 200-day | 50-day MA near $174.57 and 200-day MA near $136.80, so the longer-term trend is still positive. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.61 | KALU is significantly more volatile than the broader market. Position sizing should account for multi-dollar daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $145 | A decisive close below the $150 to $152 zone and then the 200-day area would weaken the cyclical recovery thesis. |
KALU AI trading strategy
The KALU AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personalized advice. It combines the fundamental improvement from record Q2 2026 results, technical confirmation around the recent correction low, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for KALU to reclaim and hold above the $174 to $176 resistance zone, near the 50-day moving average, with expanding volume. A confirmed move above that band would signal that the post-earnings correction is over.
A failed rally at resistance or a close below the $150 to $152 support zone should invalidate the trend continuation setup.
If KALU pulls back toward the $150 to $152 zone without breaking the thesis, compare price action with aluminum price trends, Q3 2026 guidance, and evidence that second-half margin normalization is in line with guidance.
Avoid averaging down unless maximum loss, position size, and earnings-event risk are defined before entry. Aluminum price swings make this a higher-risk commodity-cycle play.
Track aluminum prices, aerospace and packaging conversion revenue, Warrick utilization, free cash flow, net leverage, and the FY2026 adjusted EBITDA growth guidance of 45% to 55%.
Reduce confidence if aluminum prices fall more than 15%, free cash flow guidance is missed, net leverage rises back above 2.5x, or management trims the raised 2026 outlook.
Investment research summary
Kaiser Aluminum transforms raw aluminum into semi-fabricated products for aerospace, beverage cans, and industrial applications. Customers pay because Kaiser holds technical certifications, long-term supply contracts, and capacity that competitors cannot quickly replicate, and because demand strengthened across most end markets through 2026.
The moat comes from aerospace qualification processes, the Warrick coated packaging facility, KaiserSelect quality standards, and switching costs in mission-critical supply chains. The moat is narrow because aluminum is a commodity input and pricing power depends on market conditions.
The thesis fails if aluminum prices correct sharply, second-half metal tailwinds reverse faster than expected, Warrick ramp or qualification delays cut packaging margins, debt service costs rise, or the company cannot sustain positive free cash flow.
CEO Keith Harvey and CFO Neal West delivered a record Q2 2026, raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA growth guidance to 45% to 55%, and improved net leverage from 3.4x to 2.1x. The offset is that a meaningful share of 2026 earnings came from favorable metal dynamics that management expects to normalize.
Kaiser operates at the intersection of aerospace recovery, aluminum packaging secular growth, semiconductor-driven demand for plate products, and tariff-driven reshoring. U.S. aluminum and defense supply chain policy provided a supportive 2026 backdrop for domestic aluminum processors.
At about $163.88 and $2.65 billion of market value, KALU trades at 12.2x TTM earnings and 0.64x sales with a 3.3% free cash flow yield. Margin of safety depends on whether elevated 2026 earnings normalize toward the consensus 2027 EPS of about $11.29 without a sharp aluminum price break.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| KALU price | $163.88 close on August 3, 2026, up 2.63% on the day | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global and CBOE data) | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.65 billion, cross-validated as $163.88 x 16.20M shares, 0.18% deviation | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 16.20 million | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $4.14 billion, up 32.8% year over year | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | $227 million net income and $13.48 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $5.53, versus consensus of $2.66 | Kaiser Aluminum Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1.3 billion, versus consensus of $1.08 billion | Kaiser Aluminum Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | About $166 million, up $99 million year over year | Kaiser Aluminum Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Quartr) | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA growth of 45% to 55% and free cash flow of $150M to $175M | Kaiser Aluminum Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Quartr) | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $59 million as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet (Fiscal.ai) | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | $1.06 billion as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet (Fiscal.ai) | August 4, 2026 |
| Net leverage | 2.1x net debt to EBITDA, down from 3.4x at year-end 2025 | Kaiser Aluminum Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Quartr) | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $87 million positive, versus negative FCF in FY2024 and FY2025 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement (Fiscal.ai) | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.08 annualized per share, 1.88% yield | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $71.44 to $195.96 | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with a price target of $169.25, low $146, median $174, high $183 | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus EPS | About $13.52 for 2026 and $11.29 for 2027 | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation | Three-year framework: bear near $88, base near $182, bull near $265 before dividends | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 4, 2026 |
This KALU AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, may be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market data, and your own risk constraints.
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