Century Aluminum Company research snapshot
CENX AI stock analysis currently reads Century Aluminum as a direct play on US primary aluminum production with structural tariff protection under Section 232, tight global supply, and expanding domestic demand from electrification and construction, but with high sensitivity to aluminum prices, energy costs, China oversupply, and macroeconomic cycles. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, CENX traded near $44.67 with a verified market capitalization of approximately $4.42 billion. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$44.67
Market cap
$4.42 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
US primary aluminum producer riding tariff protection and tight markets, cyclical commodity risk
Trend status
Well above 52-week low but down 37% from the 52-week high on aluminum price and demand concerns
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Century Aluminum sells primary aluminum to industrial customers. The business is a commodity producer where pricing power depends on global aluminum benchmarks and US tariff protection rather than product differentiation. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from domestic primary smelting capacity, US Section 232 tariff protection, long-term power agreements at certain smelters, and relationships with US industrial buyers who prefer domestic supply for reliability and trade-policy reasons. | Low-medium |
| Management | Management has navigated volatile aluminum cycles, invested in the Oklahoma greenfield smelter project, signed a MoU with Brimstone for mine-to-metal supply chain, and maintained operations across tariff regime shifts. Capital allocation track record is mixed given commodity headwinds. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue TTM reached approximately $2.54 billion with net income of $349.3 million. Q1 2026 revenue grew to $649.2 million with operating income of $86.1 million. Levered free cash flow was negative at -$85.83 million TTM, reflecting capital spending on growth projects. | High |
| Valuation | At $44.67, CENX traded at 13.3x TTM GAAP EPS, 1.7x revenue, 3.8x book value, and 10.6x EV/EBITDA. The three-scenario framework produced a base area near $54, a bullish area near $111, and a bearish area near $20. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock has pulled back significantly from the 52-week high of $70.43, trading near $44.67. The prior uptrend from the $19.10 low found resistance, and the stock is in a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include aluminum price volatility, China export oversupply, US tariff policy changes, energy cost inflation, negative free cash flow, single-commodity concentration, and high beta of 1.97. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The commodity cycle and tariff regime make outcomes wider than a typical industrial stock. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
CENX AI stock forecast
The CENX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $44.67 quote and recent TTM GAAP EPS of $3.36. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $20, a base area near $54, and a bullish area near $111. Outcomes depend on aluminum prices, tariff policy, energy costs, and execution of the Oklahoma smelter project.
$100 to $115
More likely if aluminum prices remain elevated due to supply tightness, Section 232 tariffs stay in place or increase, the Oklahoma smelter project progresses on time, and the market assigns a higher multiple near 15x on growing EPS.
$48 to $60
More likely if aluminum prices stabilize near current levels, tariff protection continues, Century maintains or modestly grows earnings, and the market values the stock near 12x forward earnings within a normal commodity cycle range.
$16 to $24
More likely if aluminum prices decline on global demand weakness or China export surge, tariff protections are reduced, energy costs compress margins, or the company faces a negative free cash flow situation that pressures the balance sheet.
CENX AI technical analysis
CENX AI technical analysis shows a stock that rallied from a 52-week low of $19.10 to a high of $70.43, then corrected approximately 37% to the $44.67 area as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. The pullback has brought the stock below prior moving averages, and the next leg depends on whether the broader commodity trend supports aluminum prices.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $44.67 | Quote snapshots around the July 10, 2026 cutoff placed CENX near $44.67. |
| Near support | $40 to $42 | The area around the prior consolidation zone before the Q1 2026 earnings report may serve as near-term support. |
| Deeper support | $35 area | A break below $40 could open a move toward the $35 area, which was an intermediate level during the prior rally. |
| Near resistance | $50 to $52 | The round $50 level and the 50-day moving average area represent the first upside test. |
| Major resistance | $60 to $65 | The pre-correction consolidation zone from late 2025 and early 2026 sits in the $60 to $65 range. |
| 52-week high | $70.43 | The 52-week high remains the upper technical reference, requiring a fundamental catalyst to retest. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40 to 45 | The corrective move has pushed RSI toward the lower neutral zone, not yet oversold. |
| Volume | Average volume near 2.0 million shares | Average volume of approximately 2.0 million shares provides reasonable liquidity for position entry and exit. |
| Volatility | Beta of 1.97 | High beta means the stock moves approximately 2x the broader market, amplifying both gains and losses. |
| Invalidation | Close below $35 | A decisive close below $35 would suggest the corrective phase is deepening and the prior uptrend structure is at risk. |
CENX AI trading strategy
The CENX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a primary aluminum producer with tariff tailwinds and commodity cycle risk. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, aluminum price trends, tariff policy updates, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for CENX to hold above the $40 to $42 support zone, then reclaim the $50 to $52 area on volume above average. A sustained move toward $60 would require supportive aluminum prices and positive tariff or project catalysts.
A close below $35 or a negative tariff or aluminum price shock should invalidate the trend-following setup.
If CENX pulls back toward $40 to $42 without a fundamental deterioration, monitor for volume exhaustion and RSI stabilization before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because commodity stocks can gap materially on aluminum or policy news.
Track aluminum LME prices, US Midwest premium, Section 232 tariff updates, quarterly operating income and EBITDA trends, free cash flow trajectory, Oklahoma smelter project milestones, and debt leverage ratios.
Reduce confidence if free cash flow remains negative while capital spending increases, or if aluminum prices break below marginal production cost levels.
Investment research summary
Century Aluminum produces primary aluminum at US and Icelandic smelters. Customers pay because domestic aluminum supply is needed for construction, transportation, packaging, and defense applications, and tariff protections make imported aluminum more expensive.
The moat depends mainly on US tariff policy rather than structural competitive advantages. Domestic smelting capacity, long-term power agreements, and customer relationships provide some buffer, but aluminum is a global commodity and the company has limited pricing power without tariff support.
The thesis fails if global aluminum prices decline on weak demand or China exports, if Section 232 tariffs are reduced or eliminated, if energy costs rise sharply, or if the Oklahoma smelter project encounters delays or cost overruns that pressure the balance sheet.
Management should be judged by smelter operating efficiency, cost control, the Oklahoma project execution, balance sheet management through the commodity cycle, and capital allocation discipline including the timing of any stock buybacks or equity issuances.
Aluminum demand benefits from long-term electrification, lightweighting in automotive and aerospace, construction, and defense spending. However, the industry remains cyclical, energy-intensive, and exposed to China global supply dynamics that can overwhelm demand growth.
At roughly 13.3x TTM GAAP EPS and 10.6x EV/EBITDA, CENX prices in continued favorable aluminum conditions. Margin of safety requires a commodity price floor and stable tariff policy rather than growth alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CENX price | $44.67 | Yahoo Finance / Google Finance quote snapshot | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.42 billion, verified as $44.67 x 98.97 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 10, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $2.54 billion | Yahoo Finance / Google Finance revenue TTM | July 10, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $349.3 million | Yahoo Finance income statement | July 10, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP EPS | $3.36 | Yahoo Finance / Google Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | 13.29x TTM, verified as $44.67 / $3.36 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $244.1 million cash, debt-to-equity ratio 42.5% | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 10, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.72 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.63x | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 98.97 million | Google Finance / Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $11.63, derived as $44.67 / 3.84 price-to-book | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow TTM | -$85.83 million | Yahoo Finance cash flow | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $649.2 million (beat estimate of $633.07 million) | Google Finance / Yahoo Finance earnings | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 EPS | $1.63 (missed estimate of $1.78) | Google Finance / Yahoo Finance earnings | July 10, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus target | Approximately $74.00 average, range $42 to $86 | Yahoo Finance analyst estimates | July 10, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $19.10 to $70.43 | Google Finance / Yahoo Finance | July 10, 2026 |
| Beta | 1.97 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 10, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell CENX stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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