Joby Aviation, Inc. research snapshot
JOBY AI stock analysis reads Joby Aviation as a vertically integrated electric vertical takeoff and landing company building an air taxi service, aircraft manufacturing capability, and operating software. Its acquired BLADE passenger business generated most of the $24.2 million of Q1 2026 revenue, while the core eVTOL aircraft business remains dependent on FAA certification, manufacturing scale, infrastructure, and commercial utilization. Joby ended Q1 with $2.47 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, but used $195 million during the quarter excluding capital raised. The latest close used here was $7.72 on July 10, 2026, and the roughly $7.59 billion market value still prices substantial future execution. This page uses conditional scenarios for the JOBY AI stock forecast and is for informational use, not investment advice.
Current price
$7.72
Market cap
$7.59 billion
AI score
35 / 100
Rating
Pre-commercial eVTOL platform with meaningful certification progress and very high execution, cash burn, and dilution risk
Trend status
Below 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Joby combines eVTOL aircraft development, planned owned-and-operated air taxi service, aircraft sales, and BLADE passenger operations. Current reported revenue mostly reflects the acquired passenger business rather than scaled eVTOL flights. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Potential advantages include aircraft design, certification progress, vertical integration, flight operations, Toyota manufacturing support, Delta distribution, and BLADE route knowledge. The moat is not proven until the aircraft is certified, reliable, and economic in service. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt has built a long-duration program with strategic backing and a vertically integrated model. The next management test is converting technical progress into certified aircraft and revenue without excessive cash burn or dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $53.4 million, FY2025 net loss was $929.8 million, and Q1 2026 revenue was $24.2 million against a $110.0 million net loss. Q1 cash use excluding capital raised was $195 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $7.72 and a $7.59 billion market cap, trailing PE and P/FCF are not meaningful because earnings and free cash flow are negative. StockAnalysis reports about 97.77x trailing sales and 3.87x book value, so the valuation rests on future eVTOL scale. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was below the reported 50-day average of $9.82 and 200-day average of $12.12. RSI near 34 indicates weak momentum, while high volume and a 2.71 beta point to elevated price risk. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is very high because certification, safety, manufacturing yield, battery and supply chain constraints, vertiport access, route utilization, regulation, competition, cash burn, and new share issuance can all change the thesis. | High |
| AI confidence | Public filings support the descriptive facts and accounting figures, but no model can determine whether Joby will certify, manufacture, operate, and profitably scale its aircraft on the stated timetable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The company offers substantial long-term optionality but low investment certainty at the current valuation. This page is a research framework, not a personal buy or sell instruction. | Low |
JOBY AI stock forecast
The JOBY AI stock forecast uses conditional planning ranges rather than a point target. The required mechanical three-scenario EPS calculation was run, but it produced economically invalid negative price outputs because TTM EPS is negative. The practical variables are FAA certification, eIPP and Dubai operations, aircraft production, BLADE revenue, passenger utilization, cash use, financing, share issuance, and the market premium assigned to pre-commercial aviation.
$11 to $18 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if Joby reaches visible certification and TIA milestones, begins meaningful eIPP or Dubai passenger operations, ramps production, delivers its 2026 revenue outlook, and reduces the cash required per aircraft or route without heavy dilution.
$6 to $11 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if BLADE revenue grows and flight demonstrations continue, but certification, production, utilization, and operating economics remain incomplete while the market keeps valuing Joby as a funded development platform.
$3 to $6 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if certification or commercial launch slips, safety or technical issues emerge, manufacturing costs rise, route demand disappoints, cash burn stays high, or new equity and convertible financing dilute shareholders at weak prices.
JOBY AI technical analysis
JOBY AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 public snapshot of $7.72, a 50-day moving average of $9.82, a 200-day moving average of $12.12, RSI of 33.79, beta of 2.71, and 20-day average volume of 43.98 million shares. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm every level, moving average, volume reading, and catalyst in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $7.72 | Latest public close used for this static page on July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $7.67 to $7.72 | The July 10 intraday low and close form the nearest planning zone. A decisive close below this area weakens the short-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $7.99 to $8.13 | Recent July 9 and July 8 closes and highs form the first recovery band. A move above it needs volume and business confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $9.82 | Price remained below this average in the July 10 snapshot, leaving the intermediate trend unconfirmed. |
| 200-day moving average | $12.12 | This is a long-term trend reference, not a forecast. Recheck the live value before using it as a trading level. |
| Momentum | RSI 33.79 | Weak momentum near the lower part of the usual RSI range. RSI alone is not a reversal signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average 43.98 million shares | The July 10 session traded 30.97 million shares. A breakout should show demand above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 2.71 and 52-week change of -33.22% | The reported five-year beta and one-year price change show elevated market sensitivity. Certification and financing news can create larger gaps than beta suggests. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $7.67 | A close below the latest low invalidates this short-term recovery framework until a new base forms or new information changes the setup. |
JOBY AI trading strategy
The JOBY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines technical confirmation with certification, eIPP and Dubai operations, manufacturing, BLADE revenue, cash use, and share-count updates.
Watch for JOBY to hold $7.67 to $7.72, reclaim $7.99 to $8.13, and then challenge the $9.82 moving average on above-average volume. Pair price strength with a new certification, production, route, or revenue milestone.
Define risk before entry. A failed recovery or decisive close below $7.67 can serve as a rules-based invalidation condition.
If JOBY stabilizes near $7.67 to $7.72 without a certification, safety, funding, or demand thesis break, wait for improving momentum and compare price action with cash, burn rate, aircraft progress, and dilution risk.
Do not average down solely because the price fell. The setup breaks if support fails alongside weaker certification evidence or a higher capital requirement.
Track FAA certification and TIA, eIPP and Dubai operations, aircraft production and delivery, battery and supply-chain readiness, BLADE passenger demand, cash use, debt, operating cash flow, and fully diluted shares.
Refresh the scenario after earnings, regulatory decisions, safety events, launch changes, customer or partner updates, and material equity or convertible issuance. Do not rely on stale technical levels after a high-impact event.
Investment research summary
Joby aims to design, manufacture, sell, and operate quiet electric aircraft that move a pilot and up to four passengers on urban routes. The planned economics depend on aircraft utilization, route density, safe operations, and a cost structure that is not yet proven in commercial eVTOL service.
The potential moat combines aircraft engineering, certification progress, flight-test data, vertical integration, Toyota manufacturing support, Delta distribution, and BLADE operating knowledge. These assets become durable only after Joby proves safe, reliable, and economic service at scale.
The thesis fails if certification takes longer, the aircraft needs costly redesign, manufacturing yields remain low, batteries or suppliers constrain operations, vertiport access is limited, route utilization disappoints, safety incidents occur, or new financing dilutes shareholders before positive cash flow.
JoeBen Bevirt and the team have maintained a long-duration development program, built strategic relationships with Toyota and Delta, and acquired BLADE passenger operations to add market access. The decisive test is capital allocation: sequence certification, factories, infrastructure, and routes while preserving per-share value.
The FAA has created a regulatory path for powered-lift aircraft and launched the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, supporting the long-term advanced air mobility theme. The industry remains regulated, capital intensive, infrastructure dependent, and exposed to long adoption and certification cycles.
At a $7.59 billion market value, about $2.47 billion of liquid assets, and no positive earnings or free cash flow, JOBY is priced mainly on future aircraft and service scale. Cash provides runway, but it is not a margin of safety if commercialization takes longer or dilution rises.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| JOBY price | $7.72 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical prices | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.59 billion, verified as $7.72 x 983.64 million shares with 0.05% deviation | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 983.64 million in the current statistics view; SEC Q1 filing reports 983,642,852 shares outstanding | SEC Q1 2026 filing and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $53.425 million in the SEC 10-K and $53.43 million in StockAnalysis; the difference is rounding | Joby 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net loss | $24.246 million revenue and $109.950 million net loss | Joby Q1 2026 shareholder letter and 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $929.842 million in the SEC 10-K and $929.84 million in StockAnalysis; the difference is rounding | Joby 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Liquid assets and Q1 cash use | $2.466 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments; Q1 use was $195 million excluding capital raised | Joby Q1 2026 shareholder letter and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Current valuation statistics | $7.59 billion market cap, $5.88 billion enterprise value, 97.77x trailing sales, and 3.87x book value | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $9.82, 200-day average $12.12, RSI 33.79, beta 2.71, and 20-day average volume 43.98 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Regulatory and operating context | FAA powered-lift framework and eIPP support the sector, while Joby still needs certification, production scale, infrastructure, and repeatable passenger economics | FAA AAM and eIPP pages plus Joby Q1 2026 shareholder letter | July 12, 2026 |
This JOBY AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on public data and may be wrong. Prices, technical levels, filings, regulations, certification timelines, operating results, and company plans can change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
