Joby Aviation, Inc. research snapshot
JOBY AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Joby Aviation as a vertically integrated electric vertical takeoff and landing company still in the pre-commercial stage. The stock closed at $7.15 on July 31, 2026, with an after-hours print of $7.09 and a market capitalization near $7.03 billion, verified as $7.15 times 983.64 million shares outstanding. The acquired BLADE passenger business generated most of the $24.2 million of Q1 2026 revenue, while the core eVTOL aircraft business still depends on FAA certification, manufacturing scale, infrastructure, and commercial utilization. Joby ended Q1 2026 with $2.47 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, but used $195 million during the quarter excluding capital raised. Recent developments include a binding Virgin Atlantic agreement announced July 22, 2026 to bring air taxi service to the UK, a June 29, 2026 Toyota joint venture to prepare S4 aircraft manufacturing, and a reminder that public warrants expire on August 10, 2026. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 5, 2026, after this page data cutoff. The stock trades below its 50-day moving average near $9.04 and 200-day moving average near $11.40, with RSI near 40.75 and a beta of 2.71. This page uses conditional scenarios for the JOBY AI stock forecast and is for informational use, not investment advice.
Current price
$7.15
Market cap
$7.03 billion
AI score
33 / 100
Rating
Pre-commercial eVTOL platform with strong cash, binding airline partnerships, and a Toyota manufacturing joint venture, offset by high execution, certification, and dilution risk
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Joby combines eVTOL aircraft development, planned owned-and-operated air taxi service, aircraft sales and defense programs, and BLADE passenger operations. Current reported revenue mostly reflects the acquired passenger business rather than scaled eVTOL flights. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Potential advantages include aircraft design, certification progress, vertical integration, flight operations, Toyota manufacturing support, Delta and Virgin Atlantic distribution, and BLADE route knowledge. The moat is not proven until the aircraft is certified, reliable, and economic in service. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt has built a long-duration program with strategic backing, a Toyota manufacturing joint venture, a binding Virgin Atlantic UK agreement, and a vertically integrated model. The next management test is converting technical progress into certified aircraft and revenue without excessive cash burn or dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $53.4 million, FY2025 net loss was $929.8 million, and Q1 2026 revenue was $24.2 million against a $110.0 million net loss. Q1 2026 cash use excluding capital raised was $195 million, or $163 million excluding the Ohio facility purchase, and Joby raised about $1.3 billion in Q1 through an equity offering, the Delta warrant exercise, and a convertible debt offering. | High |
| Valuation | At $7.15 and a $7.03 billion market cap, trailing PE and P/FCF are not meaningful because earnings and free cash flow are negative. StockAnalysis reports about 90.55x trailing sales, 54.41x forward sales, 3.58x book value, and $1.75 of net cash per share, so the valuation rests on future eVTOL scale. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was below the reported 50-day average of $9.04 and 200-day average of $11.40. RSI near 40.75 indicates weak momentum, while a 2.71 beta, a 57.49% one-year price decline, and heavy short interest point to elevated price risk. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is very high because certification, safety, manufacturing yield, battery and supply chain constraints, vertiport access, route utilization, regulation, competition, cash burn, and new share issuance can all change the thesis. Reuters reported on July 31, 2026 that air taxi developers are pivoting to the military market amid civil certification delays. | High |
| AI confidence | Public filings and market data support the descriptive facts and accounting figures, but no model can determine whether Joby will certify, manufacture, operate, and profitably scale its aircraft on the stated timetable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The company offers substantial long-term optionality but low investment certainty at the current valuation. This page is a research framework, not a personal buy or sell instruction. | Low |
JOBY AI stock forecast
The JOBY AI stock forecast uses conditional planning ranges rather than a point target. The required mechanical three-scenario EPS calculation was run, but it produced economically invalid negative price outputs because TTM EPS is negative. The practical variables are FAA certification, eIPP and Dubai operations, the UK launch with Virgin Atlantic, aircraft production and the Toyota joint venture, BLADE revenue, passenger utilization, cash use, financing, share issuance, and the market premium assigned to pre-commercial aviation.
$11 to $18 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if Joby reaches visible certification and TIA milestones, begins meaningful eIPP, Dubai, or UK passenger operations, ramps production with Toyota, delivers its $105 to $115 million full-year 2026 revenue outlook, and reduces the cash required per aircraft or route without heavy dilution.
$6 to $11 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if BLADE revenue grows and flight demonstrations and partnership activity continue, but certification, production, utilization, and operating economics remain incomplete while the market keeps valuing Joby as a funded development platform.
$4 to $6 over 12 to 24 months
More likely if certification or commercial launch slips, the reported pivot toward military and defense revenue does not convert into scale, safety or technical issues emerge, manufacturing costs rise, route demand disappoints, cash burn stays high, or new equity and convertible financing dilute shareholders at weak prices.
JOBY AI technical analysis
JOBY AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 public snapshot of $7.15, a 50-day moving average of $9.04, a 200-day moving average of $11.40, RSI of 40.75, beta of 2.71, and a 20-day average volume of 48.3 million shares. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm every level, moving average, volume reading, and catalyst in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $7.15 | Latest public close used for this static page on July 31, 2026, with an after-hours print of $7.09. |
| Near support | $6.93 to $7.15 | The July 31 intraday low and close form the nearest planning zone. A decisive close below this area weakens the short-term setup. |
| Support zone | $6.63 | The July 29 intraday low marks the recent swing low. This is a reference level, not a guarantee of support. |
| Near resistance | $7.43 to $7.55 | The July 31 intraday high and the July 23 close form the first recovery band. A move above it needs volume and business confirmation. |
| Resistance zone | $7.75 to $7.89 | The July 23 intraday high and the July 14 close mark the next overhead area from the recent price history. |
| 50-day moving average | $9.04 | Price remained below this average in the July 31 snapshot, leaving the intermediate trend unconfirmed. |
| 200-day moving average | $11.40 | This is a long-term trend reference, not a forecast. Recheck the live value before using it as a trading level. |
| Momentum | RSI 40.75 | Weak momentum in the lower half of the usual RSI range. RSI alone is not a reversal signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average 48.3 million shares | The July 31 session traded 33.48 million shares. A breakout should show demand above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 2.71 and 52-week change of -57.49% | The reported five-year beta and one-year price change show elevated market sensitivity. Certification and financing news can create larger gaps than beta suggests. |
| Short interest | 109.76 million shares, about 11.16% of shares outstanding | Elevated short positioning adds to squeeze potential in rallies and to selling pressure in declines. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $6.63 | A close below the July 29 swing low invalidates this short-term recovery framework until a new base forms or new information changes the setup. |
JOBY AI trading strategy
The JOBY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines technical confirmation with certification, eIPP, Dubai and UK operations, manufacturing and the Toyota joint venture, BLADE revenue, cash use, and share-count updates.
Watch for JOBY to hold $6.93 to $7.15, reclaim $7.43 to $7.55, and then challenge the $9.04 moving average on above-average volume. Pair price strength with a new certification, production, route, military, or revenue milestone, including any Q2 2026 report on August 5, 2026.
Define risk before entry. A failed recovery or decisive close below $6.63 can serve as a rules-based invalidation condition.
If JOBY stabilizes near $6.93 to $7.15 without a certification, safety, funding, or demand thesis break, wait for improving momentum and compare price action with cash, burn rate, aircraft progress, and dilution risk.
Do not average down solely because the price fell. The setup breaks if support fails alongside weaker certification evidence or a higher capital requirement.
Track the Q2 2026 report on August 5, 2026, FAA certification and TIA, eIPP, Dubai and UK operations, aircraft production and the Toyota joint venture, battery and supply-chain readiness, BLADE passenger demand, cash use, debt, operating cash flow, and fully diluted shares, plus the warrant expiry on August 10, 2026.
Refresh the scenario after earnings, regulatory decisions, safety events, launch changes, customer or partner updates, and material equity or convertible issuance. Do not rely on stale technical levels after a high-impact event.
Investment research summary
Joby aims to design, manufacture, sell, and operate quiet electric aircraft that move a pilot and up to four passengers on urban routes. The planned economics depend on aircraft utilization, route density, safe operations, and a cost structure that is not yet proven in commercial eVTOL service.
The potential moat combines aircraft engineering, certification progress, flight-test data, vertical integration, Toyota manufacturing support, Delta and Virgin Atlantic distribution, and BLADE operating knowledge. These assets become durable only after Joby proves safe, reliable, and economic service at scale.
The thesis fails if certification takes longer, the aircraft needs costly redesign, manufacturing yields remain low, batteries or suppliers constrain operations, vertiport access is limited, route utilization disappoints, safety incidents occur, or new financing dilutes shareholders before positive cash flow.
JoeBen Bevirt and the team have maintained a long-duration development program, formed a Toyota manufacturing joint venture, signed a binding Virgin Atlantic UK agreement, and acquired BLADE passenger operations. The decisive test is capital allocation: sequence certification, factories, infrastructure, and routes while preserving per-share value.
The FAA has created a regulatory path for powered-lift aircraft and launched the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, supporting the long-term advanced air mobility theme. The industry remains regulated, capital intensive, infrastructure dependent, and exposed to long adoption and certification cycles, and Reuters reported on July 31, 2026 that developers are increasingly pivoting toward military and defense demand amid civil certification delays.
At a $7.03 billion market value, about $2.47 billion of liquid assets, $1.72 billion of net cash, and no positive earnings or free cash flow, JOBY is priced mainly on future aircraft and service scale. Cash provides runway, but it is not a margin of safety if commercialization takes longer or dilution rises.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| JOBY price | $7.15 close on July 31, 2026, after-hours $7.09 | StockAnalysis market quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.03 billion, verified as $7.15 x 983.64 million shares with 0.04% deviation | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 983.64 million in the current statistics view; SEC Q1 filing reports 983,642,852 shares outstanding as of May 4, 2026 | SEC Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $53.425 million in the SEC 10-K and $53.43 million in StockAnalysis; the difference is rounding | Joby 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net loss | $24.246 million revenue (passenger $21.754 million and other $2.492 million) and $109.950 million net loss | Joby Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $929.842 million in the SEC 10-K and $929.84 million in StockAnalysis; the difference is rounding | Joby 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Liquid assets, debt, and Q1 cash use | $2.466 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, about $735.5 million of total debt, and Q1 2026 use of cash excluding capital raised of $195 million, or $163 million excluding the Ohio facility purchase | Joby Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 revenue guidance | Full-year 2026 total revenue in the range of $105 million to $115 million | Joby Q1 2026 shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| Toyota manufacturing joint venture | On June 29, 2026, Joby and Toyota formed a joint venture to prepare an entity to manufacture the S4 Series eVTOL aircraft, with Toyota holding 51% and Joby 49% of the JV entity | SEC 8-K filed June 30, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Warrant expiry | About 14.24 million public warrants with a $11.50 exercise price expire on August 10, 2026; NYSE suspends trading in the warrants after August 7, 2026 | SEC 8-K filed July 28, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Virgin Atlantic agreement | On July 22, 2026, Joby signed a binding multi-year agreement with Virgin Atlantic to bring air taxi service to the UK, with Heathrow and Manchester among the primary connection points and UK CAA approvals still required | Joby press release via Business Wire | August 3, 2026 |
| Current valuation statistics | $7.03 billion market cap, $5.31 billion enterprise value, 90.55x trailing sales, 54.41x forward sales, 3.58x book value, and $1.75 net cash per share | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $9.04, 200-day average $11.40, RSI 40.75, beta 2.71, 20-day average volume 48.3 million shares, and short interest of 109.76 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | Consensus Hold from 10 analysts with an average price target of $11.01, a median of $11.50, and a range of $6.00 to $18.00 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Regulatory and operating context | FAA powered-lift framework and eIPP support the sector, while Joby still needs certification, production scale, infrastructure, and repeatable passenger economics, and developers are pivoting toward military demand amid civil certification delays | FAA AAM and eIPP pages plus Reuters reporting | August 3, 2026 |
This JOBY AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on public data and may be wrong. Prices, technical levels, filings, regulations, certification timelines, operating results, and company plans can change. Confirm all data in a live chart or the latest SEC filing before acting.
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