ORIX Corporation research snapshot
IX AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads ORIX Corporation as a diversified Japanese financial-services and asset-management group executing a shift toward third-party asset management, with the ADR at $40.31 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization of $43.93 billion, re-verified as $40.31 times 1.10 billion shares with a 0.94% deviation. FY2026, the year ended March 31, 2026, delivered record net income of JPY 447.3 billion, up 27%, on revenue of JPY 3.33 trillion, up 15.9%, with ROE of 10.4%, up 1.6 points. Management guides FY2027 net income to JPY 530 billion, ROE to 11.7%, a dividend of JPY 187.36 per share at a 39% payout, and a JPY 250 billion buyback, for an 85.9% total return ratio, helped by a pre-tax gain of about JPY 124.2 billion from the sale of ORIX Bank to Daiwa Next Bank. The July 2, 2026 Investor Day set 2035 targets of 15% ROE and JPY 1 trillion net income, with fee income of JPY 474 billion today targeted to more than double. The ADR trades at 15.62x trailing earnings and 13.25x forward earnings near its $41.00 52-week high, up about 79% in a year, so the margin of safety depends on sustainable EPS growth, fee income scaling, credit quality, yen translation, and the timing of asset exits rather than on a single record year. This page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$40.31
Market cap
$43.93 billion
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
Record earnings and active capital returns at a fuller valuation
Trend status
Constructive uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, trading near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ORIX combines leasing, lending, insurance, real estate, private equity, concessions, asset management, renewable energy, aircraft and ships, and operating businesses across Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Australia. | High |
| Moat | Its advantage is built on long operating history, underwriting and asset-selection knowledge, funding access, local relationships, hands-on asset operation, and the ability to rotate assets into third-party AUM. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Hidetake Takahashi and a new CXO structure are executing portfolio optimization, the sale of ORIX Bank to Daiwa Next Bank, a JPY 250 billion FY2027 buyback, and an asset-management transformation targeting 15% ROE and JPY 1 trillion net income by 2035. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 net income rose 27% to JPY 447.3 billion, ROE improved to 10.4%, revenue rose 15.9% to JPY 3.33 trillion, and FY2027 guidance targets JPY 530 billion net income, 11.7% ROE, and a 39% payout with an 85.9% total return ratio. | High |
| Valuation | At $40.31 with TTM EPS of $2.51, IX trades near 15.62x trailing earnings, 13.25x forward earnings, 1.51x book value, and a 1.85% dividend yield, close to the top of its recent valuation range. | High |
| Technical trend | The ADR closed at $40.31 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 55 and the 52-week high of $41.00 as overhead resistance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because earnings include realized and valuation gains that can be lumpy, ORIX USA took a JPY 97.2 billion impairment in FY2026, credit quality and asset marks depend on the cycle, and ADR returns are sensitive to the yen, interest rates, and the timing of asset exits. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported-data confidence is high, but an AI model cannot reliably normalize investment gains, forecast the timing and value of future exits, or predict yen and rate moves, so forward confidence is medium. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business is diversified and improving, while a durable return depends on recurring earnings, fee income growth, capital allocation, credit quality, and the price paid near the 52-week high. | Medium |
IX AI stock forecast
The IX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $40.31 and the FY2027 guidance midpoint. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $27, a base area near $43, and a bullish area near $61 before dividends, using forward EPS growth of 0%, 6%, and 10% and exit multiples of 9x, 12x, and 15x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$58 to $64
More likely if fee income grows faster than guidance, private asset AUM scales toward the JPY 100 trillion goal, ORIX USA recovers after impairments, credit costs stay low, the yen stays favorable for ADR returns, and the market holds about a 15x multiple on growing EPS.
$41 to $46
More likely if ORIX compounds EPS near 6% a year on the FY2027 guidance path, executes the ORIX Bank sale, keeps the 39% payout and JPY 250 billion buyback, and the market holds about a 12x multiple on forward earnings.
$25 to $30
More likely if realized gains fade, credit losses rise, property or private-equity marks weaken, the yen appreciates against the dollar, the ORIX Bank closing slips, funding costs climb, or investors compress the multiple toward 9x.
IX AI technical analysis
IX AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The ADR closed at $40.31 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 55.46 and a 52-week high of $41.00 as the immediate overhead resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $40.31 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 1.10 billion shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $39.3 to $39.8 | The 20-day moving average near $39.81 and the 50-day moving average near $39.26 as of July 31, 2026 form the first support zone. |
| Next support | $35.61 | The 100-day moving average near $35.61 on Barchart is the intermediate support reference below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $32.41 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $32.41, well below price and confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $41.00 | The 52-week high of $41.00 reported by StockAnalysis.com caps immediate upside, with the stock closing at $40.31 on July 31, 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55 | 14-day RSI was near 55.46 on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com, positive without an overbought extreme, and 14-day ADX near 11 suggested a moderate trend. |
| Volume | About 207,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 207,670 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 206,645 on July 31, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality. ADR liquidity can differ from the Tokyo listing. |
| Volatility | Historic volatility near 35% | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 35.1% and ATR(14) near $0.91, so position sizing should account for larger swings around results and yen moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $39.26 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $39.26 would weaken the short-term uptrend; a close below the 100-day near $35.61 would turn the intermediate trend bearish. |
IX AI trading strategy
The IX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a diversified financial group. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, reporting dates, yen monitoring, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for IX to hold above the 50-day moving average near $39.26 and to clear the $41.00 52-week high with volume confirmation on the next quarterly results.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should trigger a stop and review. Size exposure for ADR liquidity and foreign-exchange risk.
If IX pulls back toward the $39.3 to $39.8 support cluster without new credit, valuation, or funding damage, compare the reaction with Q1 FY2027 results, fee income progress, buyback pace, and the yen before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because asset marks, credit losses, and currency swings can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track segment profit, recurring fee income, AUM, realized gains, credit costs, debt and funding, shareholders equity, ROE, buybacks, dividend policy, USD/JPY, and the progress of the ORIX Bank sale to Daiwa Next Bank.
Reduce confidence if profit growth relies mainly on one-off gains or leverage rather than recurring earnings, disciplined capital recycling, and improving returns on equity.
Investment research summary
ORIX earns by financing, owning, operating, improving, and recycling a broad set of assets while serving corporate and retail customers through financial and operating businesses across Japan and globally.
The moat is a combination of risk selection, underwriting, funding access, local operating expertise, long customer relationships, and the ability to turn invested assets into operations and fee income. It weakens if competitors replicate returns without taking comparable risk.
The thesis fails if high FY2026 gains prove non-recurring, credit losses rise, interest costs or funding access worsen, private-market marks fall, the ORIX Bank sale or other exits slip, the yen strengthens against the dollar, or complex portfolio exposures obscure deteriorating economics.
Management is shifting the portfolio toward higher-return, asset-light management activities using capital recycling and shareholder returns, with FY2027 guidance of JPY 530 billion net income, 11.7% ROE, and an 85.9% total return ratio. The key test is whether returns improve without reducing balance-sheet resilience.
Demand for alternative assets, outsourced asset operation, renewable and infrastructure investment, and specialized finance can support growth. Cyclical capital markets, rates, regulation, Japan-China geopolitics, and Japan growth remain important constraints.
IX is not priced like a distressed financial group at about 15.62x TTM earnings, 13.25x forward earnings, and 1.51x book value near its 52-week high. Margin of safety depends on normalized earnings quality, sustainable ROE improvement, fee income scaling, capital discipline, and balance-sheet risk rather than a single record profit number.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| IX price and shares outstanding | $40.31 close on July 31, 2026 and 1.10 billion shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $43.93 billion reported, verified as $40.31 x 1.10 billion shares = $44.34 billion, a 0.94% difference | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | JPY 3.331 trillion, up 15.9% from JPY 2.87 trillion, cross-checked across the results briefing and StockAnalysis with 0.00% deviation | ORIX FY2026 results briefing and StockAnalysis | May 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income attributable to shareholders | JPY 447.3 billion, up 27% from JPY 351.6 billion, cross-checked across the results briefing and StockAnalysis with 0.00% deviation | ORIX FY2026 results briefing and StockAnalysis | May 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 ROE and basic EPS | ROE of 10.4%, up 1.6 points, and basic EPS of JPY 399.40, up about 30% | ORIX FY2026 results briefing and StockAnalysis | May 11, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | Net income target of JPY 530 billion, ROE target of 11.7%, dividend of JPY 187.36 per share at a 39% payout, and JPY 250 billion buyback for an 85.9% total return ratio | ORIX FY2026 results briefing | May 11, 2026 |
| ORIX Bank sale | Agreement to sell ORIX Bank to Daiwa Next Bank for about JPY 370 billion, with a pre-tax gain of about JPY 124.2 billion expected in FY2027 | ORIX FY2026 results briefing | May 11, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 impairments | Total impairments of JPY 97.2 billion in Q4 FY2026, primarily at ORIX USA including a goodwill impairment at ORIX Capital Partners | ORIX FY2026 results briefing | May 11, 2026 |
| 2035 Investor Day targets | 15% ROE and JPY 1 trillion net income by 2035, with fee income of JPY 474 billion today targeted to more than double and private asset AUM of about JPY 7 trillion | ORIX Investor Day 2026 transcript, July 2, 2026 | July 2, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns FY2026 | Record dividend of JPY 156.10 per share, up 30%, full execution of the JPY 150 billion buyback, and cancellation of shares exceeding 2% of total outstanding | ORIX FY2026 results briefing | May 11, 2026 |
| TTM USD income statement | TTM revenue of $20.95 billion, net income of $2.81 billion, EPS of $2.51, and gross margin near 43% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet FY2026 | Total assets of JPY 18.0 trillion, cash and equivalents of JPY 1.452 trillion, total debt of JPY 5.966 trillion, and shareholders equity of JPY 4.624 trillion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | May 11, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 15.62x trailing PE, 13.25x forward PE, 2.10x sales, 1.51x book value, 1.85% dividend yield, and EV/EBITDA of 11.20 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Tokyo listing analyst consensus | Consensus Buy with an average target of JPY 6,519 across 9 analysts, low JPY 5,300 and high JPY 7,500, with 4 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, and 5 Hold ratings in July 2026; the ADR itself has no consensus on StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis.com forecast, S&P Global and TipRanks | May 13, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Morgan Stanley Hold JPY 4,800 to JPY 5,300, UBS Buy to JPY 4,807, and Bank of America Hold to JPY 5,400 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | May 13, 2026 |
| Short interest | 613,730 shares short, 0.06% of shares outstanding, 2.37 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $39.81, 50-day SMA near $39.26, 100-day SMA near $35.61, 200-day SMA near $32.41, 14-day RSI near 55.46, and 14-day historic volatility near 35% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $22.51 to $41.00, with a 52-week price change of about +79.00% and a beta of 0.72 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This IX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, quote snapshots, earnings call and Investor Day materials, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, asset exits, credit developments, interest rates, foreign exchange, regulation, or market moves.
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