Illumina, Inc. research snapshot
ILMN AI stock analysis reads Illumina as a high-quality sequencing tools franchise where demand momentum and raised 2026 guidance meet a demanding valuation. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ILMN closed near $205.10 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market value near $30.97 billion. Q2 2026 revenue rose 9.5% year over year to $1.16 billion, rest-of-world organic revenue growth accelerated to 8.1%, and management raised the 2026 non-GAAP EPS outlook to $5.30 to $5.40 while the stock trades near 38x trailing earnings and above the 20-analyst average price target of $193.05. This page uses source-backed data, scenario ranges, technical levels, and a rules-based trading strategy framework. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$205.10
Market cap
$30.97 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
High-quality sequencing franchise with accelerating consumables demand and raised guidance, but a premium valuation above the analyst consensus target and China risk
Trend status
Strong uptrend, extended above both moving averages and near a 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Illumina sells sequencing instruments and high-margin consumables used in research and clinical workflows. The installed base supports repeat purchases, but instrument demand is cyclical and tied to customer funding and capital budgets. | High |
| Moat | Workflow integration, installed instruments, consumables compatibility, data familiarity, scientific reputation, and scale create switching costs. The moat is challenged by lower-cost and alternative sequencing platforms. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jacob Thaysen is focused on the core sequencing franchise, NovaSeq X adoption, workflow and multiomics expansion, operating discipline, and raised full-year guidance. The next proof point is durable growth without sacrificing margins. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $4.343 billion and net income was $850 million. Q2 2026 revenue rose 9.5% to $1.159 billion with GAAP operating margin of 21.1%, and 2026 revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance were raised. | High |
| Valuation | At $205.10, verified math gives about 38.2x TTM EPS, 10.9x book value, and 33.2x free cash flow. The multiple is well above the analyst average target and assumes meaningful earnings progress. | High |
| Technical trend | ILMN was above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 67.5, after a 92% 52-week gain. The trend is strong, but the stock is extended and near its 52-week high, which raises pullback risk. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high. China policy, customer funding, competitor price and technology moves, tariffs, instrument demand, leverage, and execution against raised guidance can all move the valuation. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported data is well documented, but AI cannot know the pace of genomic adoption, policy decisions, customer spending, or competitive technology transitions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The franchise is easier to understand than a clinical-stage biotech, yet investment certainty is lower than business quality because the current price requires continued operational progress and trades above the analyst consensus. | Medium-low |
ILMN AI stock forecast
The ILMN AI stock forecast uses audited, three-year scenario math rather than a point prediction. It applies different EPS growth and terminal multiple assumptions to current TTM EPS of $5.37, so the ranges show what must go right or wrong rather than a promised future price.
$275 to $305
More likely if NovaSeq X and clinical sequencing keep consumables growth in the high single digits or better, China access stabilizes or improves, operating margins expand toward the raised 23.4% to 23.6% non-GAAP target, buybacks reduce share count, and the market sustains a premium multiple for a stronger recurring-revenue profile.
$195 to $215
More likely if management delivers the raised 2026 guidance of $4.60 to $4.64 billion revenue and $5.30 to $5.40 non-GAAP EPS, consumables continue to offset uneven instrument sales, and the valuation settles near 30x a three-year EPS outcome, which is roughly where the analyst average target sits.
$125 to $145
More likely if China restrictions persist or worsen, customer capital spending weakens, competitors take share, tariffs or pricing pressure hurt margins, or earnings grow only modestly while the premium multiple contracts from the current level.
ILMN AI technical analysis
ILMN AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 public market snapshot near $205.10. This static page does not fetch request-time market data. Price was above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while RSI near 67.5 and a 92% 52-week gain showed strong but extended momentum after the July 30 earnings report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $205.10 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot after the July 31, 2026 close, used for market-cap and valuation math. |
| 52-week high and resistance | $205.93 | The July 31 intraday high matches the 52-week high, so the stock is testing its upper reference level. |
| Near support | $192.68 | The July 31 intraday low. A live chart should confirm whether this level attracts demand on a pullback. |
| 50-day moving average | $175.42 | StockAnalysis public statistics snapshot. Price was well above this average. |
| 200-day moving average | $139.69 | StockAnalysis public statistics snapshot. Price was well above this average. |
| Momentum | Strong, RSI 67.49 | RSI near 67.5 shows strong momentum but a more extended short-term condition after a large rally. |
| Volume | 1.84 million average shares | 20-day average volume in the public statistics snapshot. Breakouts should be confirmed against live volume. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.45 | The five-year beta was above the market average, so price changes can exceed broad-index moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below the 50-day average | A sustained break below roughly $175 would weaken the medium-term trend framework and should trigger a review of both price action and fundamentals. |
ILMN AI trading strategy
The ILMN AI trading strategy is a research and risk-control framework, not a personalized instruction. It combines technical confirmation with earnings, consumables demand, NovaSeq X adoption, China policy, margins, cash flow, debt, and buyback updates.
Require a decisive move through the $205.93 52-week high with live volume confirmation, then check that earnings, China access, customer demand, and the raised guidance have not changed materially.
Define risk before entry. A failed breakout or sustained close below the 50-day average can be a rules-based invalidation condition instead of a reason to average down automatically.
If ILMN retraces toward the 50-day average without weaker guidance, China policy escalation, competitive loss, or margin deterioration, assess whether price stabilizes alongside updated fundamentals.
Do not assume a lower price is better value. Reassess the thesis if the decline follows new evidence on sequencing demand, customer funding, tariffs, or competitive pricing.
Track consumables and instrument revenue, NovaSeq X adoption, rest-of-world organic growth, China policy, gross margin, operating margin, free cash flow, cash and debt, repurchases, and 2026 guidance at each material update.
Refresh scenario ranges after quarterly results, material policy changes, or product and competitive announcements. A quality franchise can still produce poor returns when expectations and valuation are high.
Investment research summary
Illumina earns revenue by selling sequencing instruments and then supplying consumables, services, and workflow support. Customers pay for reliable genomic data used in research, drug development, population studies, and growing clinical applications.
The moat comes from a large installed base, consumables compatibility, validated laboratory workflows, data familiarity, scientific reputation, intellectual property, and scale. It can narrow if competitors offer comparable results at meaningfully lower total cost.
The thesis can fail if China restrictions continue, customer budgets tighten, instruments sell below plan, new platforms erode share or pricing, tariffs lift costs, margins miss the raised targets, debt constrains flexibility, or the premium valuation compresses despite operational progress.
Management is prioritizing the core sequencing franchise after the GRAIL separation, with a stated focus on NovaSeq X demand, workflow and multiomics expansion, operating discipline, and raised 2026 guidance. Investors should test the strategy against recurring revenue growth, R&D effectiveness, margin delivery, and capital allocation.
Genomics remains a long-duration healthcare and life-science trend as sequencing moves deeper into clinical and research workflows. Adoption is not linear because reimbursement, regulation, laboratory budgets, customer funding, and technology choices shape demand.
The verified $30.97 billion market capitalization and roughly 38x trailing PE value a successful recovery in growth and profitability, and the price sits above the 20-analyst average target of $193.05. The margin of safety is limited because slower growth or multiple compression can outweigh steady operating execution.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILMN price and shares | $205.10 close on July 31, 2026 and 151.00 million shares outstanding in the public snapshot | StockAnalysis quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $30.97 billion, verified with financial_rigor.py using $205.10 and 151.00 million shares at 0.00% variance | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $4.343 billion revenue and $850 million net income, cross-validated against Macrotrends at 0.00% variance | Illumina 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue mix and China impact | $3.227 billion consumables, $482 million instruments, and $634 million service and other revenue. Greater China revenue was $243 million, down $65 million after inclusion on the Unreliable Entities List. | Illumina 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $1.159 billion revenue up 9.5% year over year, 21.1% GAAP operating margin, $1.35 GAAP diluted EPS, and $1.31 non-GAAP diluted EPS | Illumina Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance raised | Revenue raised to $4.60 to $4.64 billion, rest-of-world organic growth above 5%, non-GAAP operating margin of 23.4% to 23.6%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.30 to $5.40 | Illumina Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and free cash flow | $1.17 billion cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at Q2 close, about $1.99 billion term debt, and $931 million TTM free cash flow. H1 2026 free cash flow was $412 million. | Illumina Q2 2026 results and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | financial_rigor.py calculated 38.19x PE, 10.92x PB, 33.24x P/FCF, and 3.01% FCF yield from the published price, EPS, book value, and FCF per share inputs. | Pineify financial_rigor.py with StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 20 analysts, average price target $193.05, range $113 to $230, with post-earnings target increases from RBC, J.P. Morgan, Stifel, Guggenheim, and Bernstein | StockAnalysis ILMN forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 50-day moving average $175.42, 200-day moving average $139.69, RSI 67.49, and 20-day average volume 1.84 million shares. | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This ILMN page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Sequencing demand, China policy, competition, financial results, and market conditions can change quickly, and users should verify current information and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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