ICON Public Limited Company research snapshot

ICLR AI Stock Analysis

ICLR AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads ICON plc as a large global clinical research organization with industry-leading commercial momentum, a $23.4 billion backlog, and disciplined cash generation, but near-term profitability and trust in reported numbers remain the main constraints. At the July 31, 2026 close of $163.57, ICLR carried a verified market capitalization of about $12.62 billion, computed as $163.57 times 77,154,209 shares outstanding and matching StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance with 0.00% deviation. Q2 2026, released July 29, 2026, delivered revenue of $2,063.5 million, up 1.4% sequentially and 1.2% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $327.2 million or 15.9% of revenue, adjusted diluted EPS of $2.56, net business wins of $3,120 million, a net book-to-bill of 1.51, and a closing backlog of $23.4 billion. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $7.85 billion to $8.15 billion revenue and $10.00 to $11.00 adjusted diluted EPS, and the company ended June with net debt of $2.5 billion at 1.8x adjusted EBITDA. The July 28, 2026 multi-year Anthropic collaboration and the June 2026 Microsoft preferred-partner agreement frame ICON AI strategy, while a completed accounting investigation and a remediation plan for material weaknesses keep the risk section active. The stock traded near $172 to $203 through June and early July, pulled back after the Q2 report to $163.57, and closed below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages while holding above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day lines. Offsetting the momentum is adjusted EBITDA margin compression to 15.9% on elevated pass-through activity, adjusted gross margin of 23.8% versus 29.1% a year earlier, GAAP EPS of $0.94 depressed by one-time items and restructuring, and a 2026 consensus revenue path that still implies a modest underlying direct-fee decline. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.

Current price

$163.57

Market cap

$12.62 billion

AI score

66 / 100

Rating

Scaled global CRO with industry-leading bookings, reaffirmed guidance, and cash generation, but margin compression, GAAP noise, and remediation overhang

Trend status

Pulled back below the 5-day and 20-day moving averages after Q2 earnings, still above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 48

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness
A-level information richness. ICON plc is a large global CRO with a long public history, detailed SEC filings including the Q2 2026 Form 6-K and the FY2025 Form 20-F, the Q2 2026 earnings release and call transcript, 17 analysts covering the shares, and dense CRO peer coverage versus IQVIA, Charles River, Medpace, and other life sciences services firms. The August 3, 2026 full refresh re-fetched and re-validated the key figures: the $163.57 close, $12.62 billion market cap, $8,251.3 million FY2025 restated revenue, Q2 2026 results, and the June 30, 2026 balance sheet figures of $928.4 million cash, about $3.39 billion total debt, and $2.5 billion net debt. These matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the earnings call transcript, and the Q2 2026 Form 6-K with 0.00% deviation.
bias Check
The main AI bias risk is extrapolating two strong booking quarters and an AI headline into a durable margin recovery while under-weighting elevated pass-through activity, a 23.8% adjusted gross margin, remediation of material weaknesses, and a 2026 guide that embeds an underlying direct-fee decline near 2%. The reverse check asks whether the 1.51x net book-to-bill can convert into profitable revenue when pass-through dollars inflate top line and depress reported margin percentages, and whether management can rebuild adjusted EBITDA margin toward the high teens while keeping pass-through and cancellations under control. The refresh also checks the mirror-image bias of treating the post-Q2 pullback below the 20-day moving average as a reason to avoid, since price remains above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 48.61.
ai Confidence
High for filings, market data, Q2 2026 results, balance sheet math, and valuation ratios that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 6-K, and the earnings call transcript during the August 3, 2026 refresh. The statistics page reports total debt of $3.53 billion and net cash of negative $2.60 billion under S&P Global classification, while the company Form 6-K shows current bank debt of $1,279.8 million plus non-current bank debt of $2,110.8 million for about $3.39 billion total debt and about $2.46 billion net debt against $928.4 million cash; this page uses the Form 6-K figures as primary and the company stated net debt of $2.5 billion. Trailing PE is distorted by low GAAP earnings and one-time items, so forward PE, PS, and PB are the cleaner screens. Medium for forward valuation because margin recovery, pass-through levels, cancellations, remediation timing, and multiples can change quickly.
investment Certainty
Medium. The bookings and cash generation are genuinely improving and guidance is intact, but margins are compressed, GAAP earnings remain noisy, and remediation credibility is still being rebuilt, so the margin of safety is thinner than the commercial momentum alone suggests.

Quick verdict table

DimensionConclusionConfidence
Business qualityICON is a global clinical research organization with FY2025 restated revenue of $8,251.3 million, a $23.4 billion backlog at June 30, 2026, and TTM revenue near $8.29 billion, selling outsourced clinical development, laboratory, consulting, and related services across pharma, biotech, and medical device sponsors.High
MoatThe moat comes from global trial scale after the PRA Health Sciences combination, multi-year sponsor relationships, laboratory and functional service breadth, and a large backlog. It is not an impenetrable brand moat and can erode with cancellations, pricing pressure, or sponsors taking work in-house.Medium-high
ManagementBarry Balfe, CEO since October 1, 2025, is running a measured commercial and cost agenda: Q2 2026 net book-to-bill of 1.51, direct fee book-to-bill of 1.2x, RFP flow up 22% sequentially, disciplined cost management, and a board refresh with Kevin Egan and Jeff Elliott joining June 1, 2026. The accounting investigation concluded with a restatement and a remediation plan, and buybacks are expected to resume in the second half.Medium
Financial trendQ2 2026 revenue rose 1.4% sequentially to $2,063.5 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 3.0% to $327.2 million with margin up 30 basis points to 15.9%, adjusted EPS rose 2.4% to $2.56, and net debt stayed at $2.5 billion. The offset is adjusted EBITDA down 21.7% year over year, adjusted gross margin of 23.8% versus 29.1%, and GAAP EPS of $0.94.High
ValuationAt $163.57, ICLR traded near 1.35x book value, about 1.52x TTM sales, about 12.25x free cash flow, and about 14.73x forward earnings, with an EV/EBITDA of 26.39 on GAAP EBITDA that is depressed by impairment and one-time items. Trailing GAAP PE is distorted and not a useful screen.High
Technical trendPrice closed at $163.57 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day moving average near $171.26 and the 20-day near $169.01 after the Q2 pullback, but above the 50-day near $154.96, the 100-day near $132.44, and the 200-day near $148.25, with 14-day RSI near 48.61 and 14-day ADX near 27.61.Medium
Risk levelKey risks are margin compression from elevated pass-through activity, accounting and control remediation, cancellations, biotech funding swings, large-sponsor concentration, management transition, competition from IQVIA and other CROs, and multiple compression if bookings or guidance slip.Medium-high
AI confidenceHigh for descriptive facts and audited market-cap, balance sheet, and scenario math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the Form 6-K. Lower for exact return outcomes because small changes in book-to-bill, cancellations, margins, or multiples can move the equity materially.High data confidence
Investment certaintyMedium certainty. The commercial pipeline and cash generation look better, but margin recovery, earnings quality, and remediation progress still need confirmation before high-conviction compounding claims are justified.Medium

ICLR AI stock forecast

ICLR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The ICLR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $163.57 and the midpoint of management 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance near $10.50. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $105 to $135, a base area near $165 to $210, and a bullish area near $245 to $295 before any future buyback effect, using adjusted EPS growth of 2% to 6%, 8% to 10%, and 10% to 12% and exit multiples of 11x to 12x, 14x to 16x, and 18x to 20x over three years. The range is wide because ICON combines a sticky CRO backlog with margin, pass-through, accounting, and multiple uncertainty.

Bullish case

$245 to $295

More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 10% to 12% from the 2026 guidance base, net book-to-bill stays above 1.2x, cancellations remain moderate, adjusted EBITDA margin rebuilds toward the high teens, free cash flow funds debt reduction and resumed buybacks, remediation closes cleanly, and the market values ICLR near 18x to 20x earnings.

Base case

$165 to $210

More likely if 2026 revenue lands inside $7.85 to $8.15 billion, adjusted diluted EPS lands near $10.00 to $11.00, backlog conversion is orderly, net leverage stays near 1.8x, margins stabilize rather than fully re-expand as pass-through normalizes, and ICLR trades around 14x to 16x adjusted earnings.

Bearish case

$105 to $135

More likely if cancellations rise, biotech and large-pharma budgets weaken, pass-through activity keeps margins depressed, accounting or control issues reappear, adjusted EPS misses the guided range, and the market compresses ICLR toward 11x to 12x earnings.

ICLR AI technical analysis

ICLR AI Technical Analysis

ICLR AI technical analysis is constructive but cooling as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $163.57 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day moving average near $171.26 and its 20-day moving average near $169.01 after the post-Q2 pullback, while holding above the 50-day moving average near $154.96, the 100-day near $132.44, and the 200-day near $148.25. RSI near 48.61 is neutral after cooling from overbought, and 14-day ADX near 27.61 still confirms a trend. The 52-week range is $66.57 to $203.91, so the stock remains well below its June highs. Technical levels should be refreshed with live chart data before trading.

LevelValueWhy it matters
Current price$163.57StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance both reported the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 77,154,209 shares outstanding.
5-day moving average$171.26Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $171.26, above the July 31 close, which signals near-term momentum cooled after the Q2 report.
20-day moving average$169.01Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $169.01, and price closed below it, so a reclaim would be the first short-term improvement.
Near support$152 to $155The 50-day moving average was near $154.96 on July 31, 2026, forming the first support zone if the pullback extends.
Key support$147 to $150The 200-day moving average near $148.25 is the practical bull-or-bear line for the repaired medium-term trend.
Deeper support$130 to $134The 100-day moving average near $132.44 marks the deeper trend reference if the rally fails entirely.
Near resistance$169 to $204The 20-day and 5-day averages near $169 to $171 form immediate overhead, with the 52-week high of $203.91 and the analyst target zone near $185 to $194 as the next milestones.
MomentumRSI near 48.6114-day RSI cooled to about 48.61 on July 31, 2026, neutral after the earlier overbought reading near 70, leaving room in both directions.
VolumeAbout 0.8 million average sharesBarchart listed 20-day average volume near 810,000 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 807,000, useful for judging whether breakouts above $169 to $185 are confirmed.
VolatilityElevated near earningsBarchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 48% and 9-day near 56%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports and guidance updates.
InvalidationClose below $148, then $132A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $148.25 would weaken the repaired medium-term trend; a break below the 100-day near $132.44 would signal a failed recovery.

ICLR AI trading strategy

ICLR AI Trading Strategy Framework

The ICLR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a scaled CRO with strong bookings but margin, accounting, and valuation overhang. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.

Trend-following setup

Watch for ICLR to reclaim its 20-day moving average near $169 and build above $172 with volume confirmation, stable 2026 guidance, and no deterioration in net book-to-bill or cancellations.

A daily close below the 200-day moving average near $148 should invalidate the medium-term trend setup, especially if it follows weak bookings, lower backlog, or fresh control-remediation concerns.

Mean-reversion setup

If ICLR pulls back toward the $152 to $155 support zone without a new accounting, demand, or large-sponsor shock, compare the price with 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, net leverage, and the three-scenario valuation range before acting.

Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because CRO multiples can re-rate quickly when cancellations rise or margin recovery disappoints.

Fundamental monitor

Track net business wins, direct fee book-to-bill, cancellations, backlog burn, adjusted EBITDA margin, pass-through activity, free cash flow conversion, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, share repurchases, remediation milestones, large-pharma RFP flow, and biotech funding conditions.

Reduce confidence if EPS depends mostly on buybacks or multiple expansion while organic revenue, margins, and control remediation weaken.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

ICON helps pharmaceutical, biotech, and medical device sponsors design, run, and analyze clinical trials and related development work. Customers pay because outsourcing global trial execution, site networks, labs, and functional services can be faster and more flexible than building every capability in-house.

Moat

The moat is built from global delivery scale after the PRA Health Sciences combination, multi-year sponsor relationships, laboratory and functional service breadth, and a $23.4 billion backlog. It weakens if sponsors pull work in-house, lower-cost CROs win share, cancellations rise, or pricing power fades during budget freezes.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if net book-to-bill falls below replacement, cancellations spike, pass-through activity keeps margins depressed, margin recovery never arrives, accounting or control issues re-emerge, large sponsors cut outsourcing, or the market refuses to re-rate ICON while peers like IQVIA compound more cleanly.

Management

Barry Balfe took over as CEO on October 1, 2025 after Steve Cutler retired, and the board added Kevin Egan and Jeff Elliott on June 1, 2026. The key capital allocation questions are whether buybacks resume and create value while net debt sits near $2.5 billion, and whether the remediation plan restores reporting credibility.

Industry trend

Drug development complexity, specialty and oncology pipelines, decentralized trial tools, and sponsor preference for flexible outsourcing support long-term CRO demand. The counterweight is that client spending can pause when biotech funding tightens or large pharma re-prioritizes portfolios, and pass-through activity can distort reported growth and margins.

Valuation and margin of safety

ICLR is priced more like a recovery CRO than a pristine compounder. At about 14.7x forward earnings and near 1.35x book value, margin of safety depends on free cash flow durability, guidance delivery, backlog conversion, leverage discipline, and clean remediation. Trailing GAAP multiples are not useful without adjustment for impairments and one-time noise.

Source-backed data

ICLR Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

MetricValueSourceLast verified
ICLR price$163.57 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 1.19% on the dayStockAnalysis.com real-time quote and Yahoo FinanceAugust 3, 2026
Market capitalization$12.62 billion, computed as $163.57 x 77,154,209 shares outstanding, matching StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance with 0.00% deviationStockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics and ICON Q2 2026 Form 6-KAugust 3, 2026
Shares outstanding77,154,209 ordinary shares at June 30, 2026 per the Q2 2026 Form 6-K; StockAnalysis lists 77.15 million and reports shares down 4.80% year over yearICON Q2 2026 Form 6-K and StockAnalysis statisticsAugust 3, 2026
Q2 2026 revenue$2,063.5 million, up 1.4% on Q1 2026, up 1.2% on Q2 2025, and up 0.4% on a constant currency basisICON Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 6-KJuly 29, 2026
Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA$327.2 million or 15.9% of revenue, up 3.0% on Q1 2026 and down 21.7% on Q2 2025ICON Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 29, 2026
Q2 2026 GAAP resultsGAAP net income of $72.6 million or $0.94 diluted EPS, versus $2.56 diluted EPS in Q2 2025, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (72582000)ICON Q2 2026 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL 6-KAugust 3, 2026
Q2 2026 adjusted resultsAdjusted net income of $198.4 million or $2.56 adjusted diluted EPS, up 2.4% on Q1 2026, versus $3.52 in Q2 2025ICON Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 29, 2026
Q2 2026 bookingsGross bookings of $3,681 million up 24.1% on Q2 2025, cancellations of $562 million, net business wins of $3,120 million, and a net book-to-bill of 1.51, with a direct fee net book-to-bill of 1.2xICON Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings callJuly 29, 2026
Closing backlog$23.4 billion at June 30, 2026, up 3.0% on Q1 2026ICON Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 29, 2026
Net debt and leverageNet debt of $2.5 billion at June 30, 2026, with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.8xICON Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 29, 2026
Cash and total debtCash and cash equivalents of $928.4 million, current bank debt of $1,279.8 million, and non-current bank debt of $2,110.8 million at June 30, 2026, for about $3.39 billion total debtICON Q2 2026 Form 6-K balance sheetAugust 3, 2026
Total assets and total equityTotal assets of $16,400.3 million, total liabilities of $7,022.2 million, and total shareholders equity of $9,378.2 million at June 30, 2026ICON Q2 2026 Form 6-K balance sheetAugust 3, 2026
Q2 2026 cash flowFree cash flow of $238.9 million, cash generated from operating activities of $281.3 million, and capital expenditure of $42.4 million in the quarterICON Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 29, 2026
First-half 2026 resultsRevenue of $4,097.5 million up 1.1% (down 0.8% constant currency), adjusted EBITDA of $645.0 million or 15.7% of revenue, adjusted diluted EPS of $5.06 versus $6.79, and a year-to-date net book-to-bill of 1.46ICON Q2 2026 earnings releaseJuly 29, 2026
2026 guidanceRevenue of $7,850 million to $8,150 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $10.00 to $11.00, reaffirmed with Q2 2026 results, with a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin near 16.5% at the midpointICON Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings callJuly 29, 2026
Pass-through commentaryElevated pass-through activity boosted reported revenue and net bookings but pressured reported margins; management noted an increased potential that pass-through levels exceed the prior assumption of being roughly flat year over yearICON Q2 2026 earnings callJuly 29, 2026
Adjusted gross marginAdjusted gross margin of 23.8% in Q2 2026, versus 29.1% in Q2 2025ICON Q2 2026 earnings callJuly 29, 2026
RFP flowRFP flow increased 22% sequentially and 16% on a trailing 12-month basis in Q2 2026ICON Q2 2026 earnings callJuly 29, 2026
FY2025 restated resultsRevenue of $8,251.3 million up 0.8%, adjusted net income of $989.8 million or $12.53 adjusted diluted EPS versus $13.37, adjusted EBITDA of $1,530.7 million or 18.6% of revenue, and free cash flow of $862.0 millionICON Q4 and FY2025 results releaseMay 27, 2026
FY2025 GAAP resultsGAAP net income of $229.3 million or $2.90 diluted EPS, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (229339000), versus $8.90 diluted EPS in FY2024ICON FY2025 results release and SEC EDGAR XBRL 20-FAugust 3, 2026
FY2025 revenue cross-check$8,251.3 million, matching StockAnalysis.com financials, the FY2025 results release, and SEC EDGAR XBRL (8251340000) with 0.00% deviationStockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL 20-FAugust 3, 2026
Accounting investigation outcomeThe Audit Committee investigation is complete; revenue was overstated by $65.3 million in FY2023 (0.8% of revenue) and $92.7 million in FY2024 (1.1% of revenue), with no impact on customers, operations, or cash flow, and material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting were identified with a remediation plan in progressICON FY2025 results release and Form 20-FMay 27, 2026
Backlog reporting changeEffective October 1, 2025, ICON modified its cancellations policy, resulting in a $3.9 billion adjustment to reported backlog to $21.1 billion as of October 1, 2025ICON FY2025 results releaseMay 27, 2026
Capital returnsFY2025 share repurchases of $750.0 million at an average price of $167 per share; no repurchases in H1 2026 versus $500 million in H1 2025, with management indicating plans to resume buybacks in Q3 and the second halfICON FY2025 results release, Q2 2026 Form 6-K cash flow, and Q2 2026 earnings callAugust 3, 2026
Anthropic collaborationOn July 28, 2026, ICON announced a multi-year collaboration with Anthropic to bring Claude AI capabilities across the clinical trial lifecycle, enhancing the intelligence layer powering the Orbis agentic AI platform and deploying domain-specific agents such as the Meridian multi-agent clinical monitoring platformICON press release and Q2 2026 earnings callJuly 28, 2026
Microsoft partnershipOn June 22, 2026, ICON selected Microsoft as a preferred technology partner to power AI-enabled clinical developmentICON press releaseJune 22, 2026
Board refreshKevin Egan and Jeff Elliott joined the ICON Board effective June 1, 2026, and Dr. Steve Cutler resigned from the Board effective May 21, 2026ICON FY2025 results releaseMay 27, 2026
Valuation ratiosForward PE 14.73, PS 1.52, PB 1.35, P/FCF 12.25, P/OCF 11.35, PEG 1.61, EV/EBITDA 26.39 on depressed GAAP EBITDA, EV/FCF 14.77, and FCF yield 8.16%StockAnalysis.com statisticsAugust 3, 2026
Analyst consensusBuy with an average target of $185.56 across 17 analysts, low $155 and high $220, median $186.5StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratingsJuly 31, 2026
Analyst rating mix, July 20269 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell out of 17 analystsStockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trendsJuly 31, 2026
Recent analyst target updatesRBC Capital $185 Buy on July 31, Baird $192 to $194 Buy on July 31, Citi $165 to $180 Hold on July 31, BofA $150 to $160 Sell on July 31, and Evercore ISI $220 Buy on July 30, following Truist upgrade to Buy at $207, RBC Outperform at $185, BMO $187, Mizuho $190, TD Cowen $197, JPMorgan $155, and BofA $150 in June and JulyStockAnalysis.com forecast and news feedAugust 3, 2026
Consensus estimatesFY2026 revenue estimate $8.10B with adjusted EPS $10.59, FY2027 revenue $8.39B with adjusted EPS $11.85StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecastJuly 31, 2026
Short interest2.60 million shares short, 3.80% of shares outstanding, 2.82 days to cover, down from 2.99 million the prior monthStockAnalysis.com statistics short sellingAugust 3, 2026
Trailing free cash flowCompany-basis TTM free cash flow near $0.88 billion based on FY2025 free cash flow of $862.0 million and H1 2026 operating cash flow of $448.3 million less capex of $73.2 million; StockAnalysis reports TTM free cash flow of $1.03 billion under S&P Global classificationICON Q2 2026 Form 6-K and StockAnalysis.com cash flow statementAugust 3, 2026
Technical snapshot5-day SMA near $171.26, 20-day SMA near $169.01, 50-day SMA near $154.96, 100-day SMA near $132.44, 200-day SMA near $148.25, 14-day RSI near 48.61, 14-day ADX near 27.61, and 14-day historical volatility near 48%Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshotsAugust 3, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

This ICLR AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated data cutoff and may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new filings, bookings, margin data, legal or accounting developments, market moves, or macro conditions. Always verify live market data, company filings, and your own risk constraints before making investment decisions.