HubSpot, Inc. research snapshot
HUBS AI stock analysis currently reads HubSpot as a durable customer platform compounder whose fundamentals have stayed healthier than the multi-quarter stock drawdown. HubSpot reported Q1 2026 revenue of $881.0 million, up 23% as reported and 18% in constant currency, non-GAAP operating income of $156.8 million at a 17.8% margin, GAAP net income of $32.6 million, and non-GAAP free cash flow of $153.7 million. Full-year 2026 guidance points to about $3.700 to $3.708 billion of revenue, roughly 21% non-GAAP operating margin, and about $13.04 to $13.12 non-GAAP EPS. Customers reached 299,458 at March 31, 2026, and the company repurchased $211.0 million of stock in the first quarter. At a July 31, 2026 close near $237.36 and 51.22 million shares outstanding, verified market cap was about $12.16 billion, and the price now sits above the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages while still below the 200-day near $286. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026. This HUBS AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and should be used as an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$237.36 close area on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$12.16 billion equity value
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality mid-market CRM platform that has repaired its short-term chart after severe multiple compression, with growth and margins still solid while the long-term trend above the 200-day remains unconfirmed
Trend status
Short-term repair with the price back above the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages, still below the 200-day near $286 after a multi-quarter SaaS drawdown
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | HubSpot sells a cloud customer platform that combines free CRM with paid Marketing, Sales, Service, Content, Operations, and Commerce hubs for SMBs and mid-market companies. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from freemium CRM acquisition, multi-hub switching costs, data and workflow gravity, partner ecosystem, brand trust with growth teams, and product breadth that is hard to replace piece by piece. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Yamini Rangan has guided the company through scale, AI product expansion, margin targets, and a $1 billion buyback program while the company reports solid Q1 growth and prepares Q2 results for August 5, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $3.131 billion, up 19%, with GAAP net income of $45.9 million. Q1 2026 accelerated to 23% revenue growth with expanding non-GAAP margins and $153.7 million of non-GAAP free cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At about $237.36, HUBS traded near 3.7x trailing sales, about 3.3x 2026 guided sales, roughly 18.2x guided non-GAAP EPS near $13.08, and about 16.4x trailing free cash flow per share in the audited model. | High |
| Technical trend | Price has reclaimed the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages near the $205 to $217 area and is trading near $237, but remains below the 200-day near $286 after a drawdown from the 52-week high zone around $526 to $542. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are SMB and mid-market spending cuts, AI disruption to seat-based software, competition from Salesforce and Microsoft, stock-based compensation, customer concentration in smaller firms, further SaaS multiple compression, and event risk around the August 5, 2026 Q2 report. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because HubSpot provides current official releases, with outside market and technical data available for cross-checks. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | HUBS looks more like a high-quality software franchise that was re-priced for slower growth and higher rates than a broken business. Certainty still hinges on durable growth above mid-teens, proof that AI products expand wallet share, and a confirmed reclaim of the 200-day. | Medium |
HUBS AI stock forecast
The HUBS AI stock forecast uses a July 31, 2026 close near $237.36, FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint near $13.08, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The financial_rigor.py three-scenario model produced a bearish area near $191, a base area near $321, and a bullish area near $497 before buybacks, dilution, or further multiple changes. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$470 to $520
More likely if HubSpot sustains high-teens to low-20s revenue growth, holds non-GAAP operating margin near or above 21% while investing in AI, AI products such as Customer Agent, Prospecting Agent and Data Agent lift ARPU and wallet share, customers and multi-hub adoption keep rising, free cash flow conversion stays healthy, and the market pays closer to a low-to-mid 20s non-GAAP EPS multiple again.
$305 to $340
More likely if HubSpot grows non-GAAP EPS in the low-teens to mid-teens range, revenue stays near high-teens, margin expansion continues gradually, and investors value the stock near a high-teens non-GAAP EPS multiple.
$180 to $200
More likely if SMB and mid-market demand softens, longer sales cycles and AI uncertainty persist as flagged in partner channel checks, AI agents reduce paid seat expansion, competition forces discounting, free cash flow disappoints, or investors keep a low-teens earnings multiple after more software de-rating.
HUBS AI technical analysis
HUBS AI technical analysis shows a stronger short-term repair as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close was $237.36, up roughly 14% from the early-July reference near $207. Barchart averages showed a 5-day near $237, a 20-day near $217, a 50-day near $205, a 100-day near $217, and a 200-day near $286. The 14-day RSI was near 59, average volume ran about 1.5 million shares, and 14-day historical volatility was elevated near 88%.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $237.36 | July 31, 2026 close used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $228 to $232 | The recent rebound consolidation shelf sits just below the July 31 close. |
| Pivot support | $216 to $218 | The 20-day and 100-day moving averages cluster in this zone as the first real downside shelf. |
| Major support | $204 to $206 | The 50-day moving average near $205 is the next shelf if the rebound gives way. |
| Deep support | $190 to $200 | The round-number zone above the 52-week low near $169.63 is the key invalidation band for the post-crash base. |
| Near resistance | $240 to $250 | The year-to-date reference area and round-number supply form the first upside test. |
| Trend resistance | $260 to $275 | The analyst target cluster, with the consensus near $274, marks the next supply zone. |
| Major resistance | $286 to $300 | The 200-day moving average area remains the long-term trend hurdle after the large drawdown from the high zone around $526 to $542. |
| Moving averages | 20-day near $217, 50-day near $205, 100-day near $217, 200-day near $286 | Price above the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day averages supports the repair case, while the gap below the 200-day keeps the long-term downtrend intact. |
| Momentum | Constructive short-term | A 14-day RSI near 59 with the price above short-term averages shows rebound strength without yet confirming a long-term trend change. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.5 million shares | A move toward the 200-day should be judged against above-average volume after a high-volatility software de-rating. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 88%, wide 52-week range | Barchart showed the 52-week range from about $169.63 to about $526 to $542 depending on the vendor, so position sizing should account for large software swings around earnings, guidance, AI product news, and sector multiple moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $204, then below $190 | A break below the 50-day weakens the repair, while a break of the $190 to $200 zone followed by the $169.63 52-week low would re-open the full SaaS drawdown risk. |
HUBS AI trading strategy
The HUBS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects customer growth, ARPU, multi-hub adoption, AI product monetization, free cash flow, margin expansion, buybacks, the August 5, 2026 Q2 report, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for HUBS to hold above the $216 to $218 area, reclaim the $240 to $250 zone on above-average volume, and ideally confirm a close above the $286 to $300 band while the next earnings update confirms high-teens revenue growth, stable or rising non-GAAP margin, free cash flow conversion, and customer growth near the mid-teens or better.
A failed test of the 200-day area followed by a close below $204 should reduce setup confidence, especially if management commentary points to weaker SMB demand or slower AI monetization.
If HUBS pulls back toward $190 to $205 without a cut to growth or free cash flow guidance, compare the new price with the verified ~3.3x 2026 sales, ~18.2x guided non-GAAP EPS, ~16.4x trailing free cash flow, and peer software multiples.
Do not treat a lower multiple as enough if customer growth stalls, ARPU falls, AI products fail to lift wallet share, or stock-based compensation keeps dilution high.
Track revenue growth, constant-currency growth, customers, average subscription revenue per customer, multi-hub attach, non-GAAP operating margin, free cash flow, cash and investments, share count after the buyback, the August 5, 2026 Q2 report, and the Analyst Day planned at UNBOUND in September 2026.
Position sizing should reflect that HUBS is a quality software franchise still exposed to SaaS multiple swings, mid-market budget cycles, AI product uncertainty, and upcoming earnings event risk.
Investment research summary
Customers pay HubSpot to attract, convert, close, and serve customers on one cloud platform. The freemium CRM pulls teams in, and paid hubs monetize marketing automation, sales pipeline, service, content, operations, and commerce workflows, while new agent products are pushing the platform toward outcome-based pricing.
HubSpot has freemium distribution, multi-product switching costs, shared customer data, partner and agency ecosystems, brand strength with growth teams, and a suite that is painful to rip out once several hubs are live. The moat weakens if AI-native tools replace seat-based workflows more cheaply.
The thesis fails if SMB budgets crack, AI agents reduce paid seats faster than HubSpot monetizes new products, Salesforce or Microsoft win mid-market suites, free cash flow weakens under higher AI infrastructure spend, the August 5, 2026 Q2 report disappoints, or the stock stays trapped in a multi-year de-rating despite solid results.
Yamini Rangan has emphasized durable growth, product breadth, AI investment, and earlier margin targets. Capital allocation now includes a $1 billion repurchase program with $211.0 million deployed in Q1 2026, so investors should watch dilution, buyback timing, and product returns together.
Go-to-market software is consolidating into broader customer platforms while AI moves systems of record toward systems of action, with search-driven lead generation shifting toward AEO. HubSpot sits in a long-term digital selling trend, but the same AI shift can pressure traditional SaaS packaging and pricing.
After a drawdown from the mid-$500s toward the $170 low and a rebound to about $237, HUBS prices more like a still-growing but no longer ultra-premium SaaS name. Margin of safety improves if high-teens growth and ~21% non-GAAP margins stick, free cash flow stays strong, and the long-term chart stops making lower lows above the 200-day.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HUBS quote reference | About $237.36 on July 31, 2026, after-hours near $235.00 | StockAnalysis HUBS quote and Google Finance HUBS quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $12.16 billion calculated from $237.36 price and 51.22 million shares, 0.02% deviation versus reported $12.16B | StockAnalysis shares outstanding and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and profitability | $881.0 million revenue, $156.8 million non-GAAP operating income, 17.8% non-GAAP operating margin, $32.6 million GAAP net income | HubSpot Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 customers, ARPU, billings and cash | 299,458 customers, $11,722 average subscription revenue per customer, $912.3 million calculated billings, $1.8 billion cash and investments | HubSpot Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 free cash flow and buyback | $153.7 million non-GAAP free cash flow, $198.8 million operating cash flow, $211.0 million stock repurchased with $789.0 million remaining | HubSpot Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $3.131 billion revenue, $45.9 million GAAP net income | StockAnalysis annual financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and Q2 2026 guidance | FY2026 revenue $3.700B to $3.708B at about 21% non-GAAP operating margin and non-GAAP EPS $13.04 to $13.12; Q2 2026 revenue $897.0M to $898.0M and non-GAAP EPS $3.00 to $3.02 | HubSpot Q1 2026 guidance update | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve-month free cash flow | TTM free cash flow of $742.73 million, free cash flow per share of $14.50, gross margin 83.66% | StockAnalysis trailing statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 3.68x trailing sales, ~3.28x 2026 guided sales, ~18.2x guided non-GAAP EPS, ~16.4x trailing free cash flow | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day near $217, 50-day near $205, 100-day near $217, 200-day near $286, 52-week range about $169.63 to about $526 to $542 | Barchart technical averages and StockAnalysis quote range | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy with an average price target near $274 per StockAnalysis and about $270 per Google Finance | StockAnalysis analyst summary and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
This HUBS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if HubSpot execution, the August 5, 2026 Q2 report, AI adoption, valuation multiples, interest rates, competition, SMB demand, or market conditions change.
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