H World Group Limited research snapshot
HTHT AI stock analysis currently reads H World Group Limited as one of China's largest multi-brand hotel operators, converting economy-to-midscale room nights, manachise and franchise fees, and a smaller Europe/APAC hotel base into recurring lodging cash flow. The July 12, 2026 setup is not a guaranteed buy signal: the latest verified close used here was $41.11 on July 10, 2026, with a verified market capitalization of about $12.64 billion, 17.42x TTM earnings, 7.85x book value, an 8.54% free cash flow yield, and about a 5.13% dividend yield based on FY2025 cash dividends. The HTHT AI stock forecast depends on whether China RevPAR and manachised network openings can keep compounding, whether Legacy-DH or HWI operations stay profitable, and whether investors keep paying a mid-teens earnings multiple for China lodging cash returns. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$41.11
Market cap
$12.64 billion verified market cap
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
China multi-brand hotel leader with asset-light network growth, high free cash flow yield, and China demand plus Europe execution risk
Trend status
Short-term downtrend below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a 2026 peak near $54.63
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | H World monetizes travel demand through leased and owned hotels plus a growing manachised and franchised network, with 12,858 hotels and about 1.26 million rooms at year-end 2025, rising to 13,215 hotels by March 31, 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat is brand density in China, operating systems, franchisee economics, membership scale, and supply-chain standardization across HanTing, JI Hotel, Orange, and other brands. Switching costs for guests are low, so value and consistency must keep winning. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder Ji Qi remains Executive Chairman, with Jin Hui as CEO since 2021. Capital allocation has emphasized asset-light expansion, cash dividends, and buybacks, including about US$760 million returned in 2025. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to RMB25.3 billion (about US$3.61 billion), net income rose to RMB5.1 billion (US$726 million), and M&F revenue rose 23.1% to RMB11.7 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose 11.1% while GAAP net income fell 8.6% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $41.11, HTHT trades near 17.42x TTM earnings, 7.85x book value, 11.71x FY2025 free cash flow per share, and about a 5.13% dividend yield, which is moderate if network growth and returns continue. | High |
| Technical trend | HTHT closed below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 41 and a pullback from the February 2026 high near $54.63, so the technical picture is cautious as of the July 10, 2026 close. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are China consumer and travel demand, RevPAR pressure, franchisee quality at high opening pace, Europe hotel performance, lease and balance-sheet leverage, FX, and China ADR policy or sentiment shocks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company IR releases, Macrotrends, Yahoo chart data, and share-count sources align on the main operating and market facts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business quality and free cash flow are stronger than the recent price action implies, but certainty is capped by China macro sensitivity and a market that can re-rate China lodging multiples quickly. | Medium |
HTHT AI stock forecast
The HTHT AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a guaranteed price target. Using the $41.11 July 10, 2026 quote reference, TTM-style EPS of about $2.36 from FY2025 net income and share count, and a three-year earnings multiple model, Pineify financial_rigor.py produced a bearish area near $28, a base area near $45, and a bullish area near $73. The forecast is most sensitive to China RevPAR, manachise openings, Europe contribution, capital returns, and the multiple investors apply to China hotel cash flows.
$60 to $75
More likely if China RevPAR stabilizes or rises, M&F revenue keeps double-digit growth, HWI contributes positive adjusted profit, capital returns stay large, and the market pays a premium lodging multiple near 20x to 22x earnings.
$42 to $50
More likely if revenue grows in the low-to-mid single digits as guided for 2026, EPS compounds near mid-single digits, openings stay net positive, and the market values HTHT near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$26 to $34
More likely if China travel demand weakens, same-hotel RevPAR falls further, Europe profits reverse, leverage or lease costs pressure free cash flow, or the market re-rates HTHT toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
HTHT AI technical analysis
HTHT AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10, 2026 close of $41.11 sits below the 50-day average near $44.88 and the 200-day average near $46.78, with RSI near 41 and a 52-week range of $30.41 to $56.64. This page does not fetch request-time market data, so traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $41.11 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $40.50 to $41.00 | Area around the July 9, 2026 low near $40.95 and recent consolidation. |
| Secondary support | $37.50 to $39.00 | Lower support zone if the post-peak correction resumes. A sustained break would weaken the medium-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $42.50 to $43.30 | Area near late-June 2026 closes around $43.27. A move above this zone needs volume confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | About $44.88 | Yahoo Finance daily history showed HTHT below the 50-day moving average as of the July 10, 2026 close. |
| 200-day moving average | About $46.78 | Yahoo Finance daily history showed HTHT below the 200-day moving average, which supports the cautious trend read. |
| Momentum | RSI about 41 | RSI is below the midline, suggesting weak short-term momentum without extreme oversold conditions. |
| Volume | About 1.26 million shares on July 10; 20-day average about 1.94 million | Recent volume was below the 20-day average, so a reversal should be confirmed by rising participation. |
| Volatility | ATR about $1.23 | Position sizing should allow for normal daily movement around the $41 price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $40.50, then $37.50 | A close below the immediate support area would weaken the near-term setup. A break below $37.50 would challenge the medium-term base. |
HTHT AI trading strategy
The HTHT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for HTHT to reclaim the $42.50 to $43.30 zone and then the 50-day moving average near $44.88 with improving volume before treating momentum as confirmed.
A failed breakout or daily close below the $40.50 support area should reduce confidence in the setup.
If HTHT pulls back toward $37.50 to $39.00 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with upcoming earnings, China RevPAR commentary, and capital return updates.
Do not average down solely because H World is a high-quality China hotel operator. Define maximum loss and review valuation first.
Track next earnings (estimate around August 20, 2026), hotel openings and closures, M&F revenue growth, HWC versus HWI profit, RevPAR, dividend and buyback pace, and China travel demand data.
Lower the rating if network growth continues while same-hotel economics and free cash flow deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Customers pay H World for reliable, value-oriented hotel stays across China economy and midscale brands, with a smaller international portfolio under Steigenberger and related labels. Shareholders own a hotel system that converts brand density and franchisee relationships into manachise fees, franchise fees, and owned-hotel operating profits.
The moat is China brand recognition, hotel density, standardized operating playbooks, membership programs, and franchisee economics. It is not protected by high guest switching costs, so price, location, and consistency remain the daily contest.
The thesis fails if China travel demand weakens, RevPAR stays under pressure, franchise openings lower quality, Europe hotels lose money again, leverage absorbs free cash flow, capital returns shrink, or the market loses patience with China ADR multiples.
Ji Qi built the company after earlier roles co-founding Ctrip and Home Inns. Jin Hui has led as CEO while the company shifted harder into asset-light growth and shareholder returns. Key-person risk remains real, but the operating system is broader than one executive.
H World sits inside China domestic travel, midscale hotel upgrading, franchise chain consolidation, and gradual international expansion. The long-term chain professionalization trend is durable, but the cycle is sensitive to consumer confidence, property costs, and tourism policy.
At roughly 17.42x TTM earnings and an 8.54% free cash flow yield, the price is not extreme if mid-single-digit growth and cash returns persist. A fair setup still needs either better China demand evidence or a clearer path back above the major moving averages.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HTHT price | $41.11 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance daily chart history and Macrotrends price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.64 billion, verified as $41.11 x 307.52 million shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 307.52 million shares | Morningstar and StockAnalysis share-count snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | RMB25.3 billion (about US$3.61 billion), up 5.9% year over year | H World FY2025 earnings release and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable | RMB5.1 billion (US$726 million), up from RMB3.0 billion in 2024 | H World FY2025 earnings release and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 manachised and franchised revenue | RMB11.7 billion, up 23.1% year over year | H World FY2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Hotel network | 12,858 hotels and 1,264,419 rooms at Dec 31, 2025; 13,215 hotels and 1,303,563 rooms at March 31, 2026 | H World FY2025 and Q1 2026 earnings releases | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | RMB6.0 billion (US$870 million), up 11.1% year over year | H World Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income attributable | RMB817 million (US$118 million), down 8.6% year over year | H World Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | About US$1.079 billion | Macrotrends free cash flow history | July 12, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns FY2025 | About US$760 million total, including about US$650 million cash dividends and about US$110 million share repurchases | H World FY2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | Revenue growth 2% to 6% (or 5% to 9% excluding DH/HWI), M&F revenue growth 12% to 16%, open 2,200 to 2,300 hotels and close 600 to 700 hotels | H World FY2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt context | Third-party snapshots near $2.3 billion cash and about $5.2 billion total debt; leverage is elevated partly by hotel leases and should be read with operating lease context | Seeking Alpha and Yahoo Finance balance-sheet snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $5.24 | Yahoo Finance and Morningstar key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.42x TTM PE, 7.85x PB, 45.04% ROE, 11.71x P/FCF, 8.54% FCF yield, 5.13% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA about $44.88, 200-day MA about $46.78, RSI about 41, ATR about $1.23, 52-week range $30.41 to $56.64 | Yahoo Finance daily chart history | July 12, 2026 |
This HTHT AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
