Is HASI a buy according to AI stock analysis?

HASI AI stock analysis does not label HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital a universal buy because the answer depends on price, rate expectations, risk tolerance, and portfolio context. The page reads HASI as a quality sustainable infrastructure REIT with medium investment certainty at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, supported by record adjusted ROE of 15.7%, 20% adjusted EPS growth, a $6.5 billion pipeline, a 4.49% dividend yield, and roughly 12.7x forward adjusted EPS.

What is the HASI AI stock forecast?

The HASI AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain prediction. The three-scenario framework around the $37.87 close and 2028 guidance of $3.50 to $3.60 adjusted EPS points to a bearish area near $29, a base area near $46, and a bullish area near $57 over three years, depending on adjusted EPS growth and exit multiples.

What technical levels matter for HASI?

The technical levels that matter for HASI are resistance near $38.80 to $39.00 from the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a $40 to $42 next resistance zone, the $44.13 52-week high, support near $36.00 to $36.20 from the 200-day moving average, and the $32 to $34 deeper support zone, with a close below $36 weakening the recovery setup.

Can AI predict HASI stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize filings, quote data, technical levels, valuation math, and scenario assumptions, but interest rate policy, credit outcomes, project portfolio performance, GAAP HLBV volatility, and market sentiment can change the outcome.

How should I use this HASI AI trading strategy?

Use this HASI AI trading strategy as a research checklist, not as personalized advice. Pair it with the August 6, 2026 Q2 report, current chart data, interest rate outlook, credit quality reports, managed asset growth updates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level near $36.

Why is HASI GAAP net income so different from adjusted EPS?

HASI GAAP net income fluctuates significantly because of gains and losses on asset sales, mark-to-market changes, and HLBV accounting related to the timing of tax credit sale proceeds distributed to tax equity investors. Q1 2026 reported a GAAP net loss of about $72 million driven by an HLBV loss that management expects to fully reverse in Q2 2026, while adjusted EPS of $0.77 rose 20% year over year.

What makes HASI different from other clean energy REITs?

HASI differs from many clean energy REITs through its 40 plus year track record in energy project finance, programmatic client relationships, a permanent capital base that allows holding assets through cycles, the CarbonCount underwriting framework, and the CCH1 co-investment platform with KKR that grows fee income with less equity issuance.

What is the biggest risk in HASI AI stock analysis?

The biggest HASI risk is that interest rates stay higher for longer, compressing the spread between the cost of capital and project returns, while credit losses, resi solar delinquencies, tax equity market tightness, or policy changes slow managed asset growth, and GAAP HLBV volatility continues to obscure the operating earnings trend.

HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. research snapshot

HASI AI Stock Analysis

HASI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (formerly Hannon Armstrong) as a differentiated sustainable infrastructure REIT with improving execution, a lower cost of capital, and $16.4 billion of managed assets, up 13% year over year. The stock closed at $37.87 on July 31, 2026, down 0.24% on the day, with a market capitalization near $4.89 billion, verified as $37.87 times 129.16 million shares outstanding per the StockAnalysis.com statistics page and the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover, which lists 128,432,763 shares of common stock as of May 5, 2026. The Q1 2026 report, released May 7, 2026, showed adjusted EPS of $0.77, up 20% year over year from $0.64, adjusted earnings of $102 million, up 31%, a record adjusted ROE of 15.7% versus 12.8% a year ago, adjusted recurring net investment income up 29% to just over $100 million, and managed assets up 13% to $16.4 billion. Management reaffirmed 2028 guidance of $3.50 to $3.60 adjusted EPS and 17% adjusted ROE, issued no ATM shares in Q1, and extended the weighted average maturity of corporate term debt from 7.9 to 12.8 years after pricing $400 million of 6% senior notes and $600 million of 7.8% junior subordinated notes in February, then a further $1.0 billion of 5.950% green senior notes due 2033 in June 2026. The stock is up about 41% over the past 52 weeks and about 20% year to date, yet it closed below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages while holding above the 200-day average near $36.14, with 14-day RSI near 45. The next catalyst is the Q2 2026 report on August 6, 2026 after market close. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.

Current price

$37.87

Market cap

$4.89 billion

AI score

69 / 100

Rating

Quality sustainable infrastructure REIT, improving execution and cost of capital

Trend status

Pullback below the 50-day moving average but holding above the 200-day moving average

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. HASI is a long-listed U.S. REIT with a 2013 IPO, detailed SEC filings including the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q filed May 8, 2026, the Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript, coverage from 16 analysts, and multiple third-party datasets. The August 3, 2026 full refresh re-fetched and re-validated the key figures: the $37.87 close, $4.89 billion market cap, 129.16 million shares outstanding, $2.70 FY2025 adjusted EPS, Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.77, record adjusted ROE of 15.7%, $16.4 billion managed assets, and the balance sheet figures of $124.5 million cash, $8.2 billion total assets, $5.0 billion long-term debt, and $2.535 billion stockholders equity, which matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the earnings release, the transcript, and the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q.
bias Check: The main AI bias risk is over-extrapolating the clean energy theme and the Q1 2026 momentum without adequately weighing interest rate sensitivity, credit risk in project finance, GAAP earnings volatility from tax equity HLBV timing, and policy dependency. The reverse check asks whether record adjusted ROE of 15.7%, 20% adjusted EPS growth, and a $6.5 billion pipeline can survive a higher-for-longer rate environment, resi solar delinquency upticks that remain within underwriting, a small transfer of receivables to Category 2, tax equity market tightness, and the fact that the stock already recovered about 41% over the trailing 52 weeks and trades near the midpoint of its range. The refresh also checks the mirror-image bias of chasing a stock that sits below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages with RSI near 45 and a short ratio near 11 days to cover, which is a pullback rather than a confirmed breakout.
ai Confidence: High for reported adjusted EPS, adjusted ROE, managed assets, share count, market cap math, dividend history, analyst consensus, and technical moving averages that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings release, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call transcript during the August 3, 2026 refresh. Medium for forward scenarios because REIT pricing is sensitive to rate expectations and policy signals that shift quickly. Note that the Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of about $72 million is driven by an HLBV loss related to the timing of tax credit sale proceeds distributed to tax equity investors, which management expects to fully reverse in Q2 2026, so GAAP EPS is not a clean earnings measure for this company.
investment Certainty: Medium. HASI has an understandable investment model with long-duration contracted cash flows and strong secular demand, but investment certainty is constrained by GAAP earnings noise, leverage, rate sensitivity, and the fact that the stock already discounts a favorable rate and policy environment.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	HASI finances, invests in, and manages sustainable infrastructure assets across behind-the-meter solar and efficiency, grid-connected renewables, and fuels, transport and nature-based projects, with $16.4 billion of managed assets, a portfolio yield of 9.2%, and new asset yields above 10.5% for eight straight quarters.	High
Moat	Differentiated by programmatic client relationships, a permanent capital base, 40 plus years of energy market expertise, the CarbonCount underwriting framework, and a CCH1 co-investment platform with KKR that lets HASI grow fee-generating assets without issuing as much equity.	Medium-high
Management	President and CEO Jeff Lipson and CFO Chuck Melko delivered Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.77, record adjusted ROE of 15.7%, no ATM issuance, a refinancing that extended weighted average debt maturity from 7.9 to 12.8 years, and reaffirmed 2028 guidance of $3.50 to $3.60 adjusted EPS at 17% adjusted ROE.	Medium-high
Financial trend	Q1 2026 adjusted EPS rose 20% year over year to $0.77, adjusted earnings rose 31% to $102 million, adjusted recurring net investment income rose 29% to just over $100 million, managed assets rose 13% to $16.4 billion, and adjusted ROE hit a record 15.7%, building on FY2025 adjusted EPS of $2.70.	High
Valuation	At $37.87, the trailing GAAP PE of about 88x is misleading because of HLBV and other non-cash items. On 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.99, the forward PE is about 12.7x, and the 4.49% dividend yield provides income support.	Medium-high
Technical trend	HASI closed at $37.87 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages near $38.13, $38.10, $38.80, and $38.96 but above the 200-day average near $36.14, with 14-day RSI near 45 and 14-day ADX near 21.7, a pullback rather than a breakout.	Medium
Risk level	Key risks include interest rate sensitivity, credit losses on project investments, GAAP earnings volatility from HLBV timing, policy and tax equity market uncertainty, leverage and refinancing risk, resi solar delinquency upticks, and the concentration of the Neogenyx and CCH1 growth platforms.	Medium-high
AI confidence	High for descriptive facts, audited adjusted EPS, market data, and technical levels. Medium for forward scenarios given rate policy uncertainty and asset-level credit outcomes.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction.	Medium

HASI AI stock forecast

HASI AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The HASI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $37.87 and the 2028 guidance of $3.50 to $3.60 adjusted EPS at 17% adjusted ROE, with 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.99. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $29, a base area near $46, and a bullish area near $57, using adjusted EPS growth of 4%, 12%, and 18% and exit multiples of 9x, 13x, and 16x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.

Bullish case

$52 to $62

More likely if the Fed cuts rates decisively, U.S. clean energy policy and the tax credit transfer market stay supportive, managed asset growth continues at 15% plus, credit performance remains strong, and the market re-rates HASI toward 15x to 16x adjusted EPS.

Base case

$42 to $50

More likely if HASI compounds adjusted EPS toward the $3.50 to $3.60 2028 guidance, keeps funding growth with minimal new equity, the rate environment stabilizes, and investors hold the stock near 13x to 14x adjusted earnings plus the dividend yield.

Bearish case

$26 to $32

More likely if rates stay higher for longer, credit losses emerge in the project portfolio, resi solar delinquencies rise beyond underwriting, clean energy tax incentives are reduced, GAAP HLBV volatility persists, or the market compresses the multiple toward 9x adjusted EPS.

HASI AI technical analysis

HASI AI Technical Analysis

HASI AI technical analysis shows a stock in a pullback within a recovery as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. HASI closed at $37.87 on July 31, 2026, up about 41% over 52 weeks and about 20% year to date, but it sits below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages while holding above the 200-day average near $36.14. With 14-day RSI near 45 and 14-day ADX near 21.7, momentum is neutral and the trend is not strongly confirmed, so the $38.80 to $39.00 overhead zone and the $36.14 support area define the near-term range.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$37.87	StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 129.16 million shares outstanding.
5-day moving average	$38.13	Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $38.13 on July 31, 2026, slightly above the close, which signals the very short-term move cooled.
Near resistance	$38.80 to $39.00	The 50-day moving average near $38.80 and the 100-day average near $38.96 form an overhead cluster that capped the recovery.
Next resistance	$40.00 to $42.00	The $40 to $42 zone is the prior price area that must clear for the recovery to extend toward the 52-week high.
52-week high	$44.13	The 52-week high of $44.13 is the upper boundary if the recovery regains momentum.
Near support	$36.00 to $36.20	The 200-day moving average near $36.14 is the first major support and the line that currently separates a pullback from a broken uptrend.
Deeper support	$32 to $34	If $36 breaks, the next support zone sits near $32 to $34, the middle of the recovery range off the $24.38 low.
52-week low	$24.38	The 52-week low of $24.38 marks the lower boundary of the current recovery range.
Momentum	RSI near 45, ADX near 22	Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 45.24, neutral, and 14-day ADX near 21.65 with -DI of 22.45 above +DI of 11.36, so the trend is not strongly confirmed in either direction.
Volume	About 0.80 million average shares	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported 20-day average volume near 0.80 million shares on July 31, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality.
Volatility	Moderate	Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 20.36% and 14-day ATR near $1.04, or about 2.75%, so position sizing should account for earnings-driven swings around the August 6, 2026 report.
Invalidation	Close below $36	A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $36.14 would weaken the recovery; a close below $34 would point to a deeper retest of the $30 to $32 zone.

HASI AI trading strategy

HASI AI Trading Strategy Framework

The HASI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a sustainable infrastructure REIT during a pullback within a recovery. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, the August 6, 2026 Q2 report, interest rate outlook, credit quality reports, and a defined invalidation level.

Trend-following setup

Watch for HASI to reclaim the 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $38.10 to $38.13 and to clear the $38.80 to $39.00 overhead cluster on above-average volume. A sustained move through the $40 to $42 zone would signal the recovery has more room toward the $44.13 high.

A close back below $36 or a bearish catalyst from Fed policy, a credit downgrade, or Q2 guidance changes should invalidate the setup.

Mean-reversion setup

If HASI pulls back toward the $36.00 to $36.20 200-day moving average on normal volume without a fundamental catalyst, assess whether the Q2 report, rate outlook, managed asset growth, and credit quality support buying the dip. The 4.49% dividend yield provides a holding return while waiting.

Do not add below $36 without confirming that rate expectations and credit performance remain intact. Use a hard stop near $34 to limit downside on a failed support.

Income and hold setup

For dividend-oriented investors, monitor the $0.425 quarterly dividend, adjusted EPS progress toward the $3.50 to $3.60 2028 guidance, managed asset growth, credit loss trends, leverage ratios, and ATM issuance. The dividend yield combined with long-term adjusted EPS growth is the total return proposition.

Sell or reduce if the dividend is cut, if credit losses materially exceed guided ranges, if GAAP HLBV losses persist beyond Q2, or if adjusted EPS growth stalls below the 2028 guidance path.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

HASI provides capital and services to sustainable infrastructure projects in the United States. Customers, including project developers, utilities, and commercial clients, pay because HASI combines deep energy market expertise with flexible financing structures, a permanent capital base, and a co-investment platform that can hold investments through market cycles.

Moat

The moat comes from programmatic client relationships built over decades, specialized underwriting expertise in clean energy project finance, a low-cost permanent capital base, and integrated debt and equity structuring capabilities, plus the CCH1 platform with KKR that scales fee income without proportional equity issuance.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if interest rates stay higher for longer, compressing the spread between HASI cost of capital and project returns; if credit losses emerge from troubled projects or resi solar delinquencies rise beyond underwriting; if clean energy tax credits are reduced or tax equity market tightness persists; if GAAP HLBV volatility continues to distract from the operating story; or if the recovery stalls below the 200-day moving average.

Management

President and CEO Jeff Lipson and CFO Chuck Melko have delivered Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.77, record adjusted ROE of 15.7%, no ATM issuance, a debt refinancing that extended weighted average maturity from 7.9 to 12.8 years, the $1.0 billion 5.950% green notes due 2033, the $400 million Neogenyx joint venture with Ameresco, and reaffirmed 2028 guidance, while May 2026 executive appointments deepened the bench with new co-CIOs and co-chief risk officers.

Industry trend

HASI operates within a multi-trillion-dollar U.S. sustainable infrastructure investment opportunity between 2025 and 2050. The energy transition, electrification, grid modernization, data center power demand, and corporate decarbonization commitments create long-duration demand tailwinds, but the pace depends on interest rates, policy certainty, and technology costs.

Valuation and margin of safety

At roughly 12.7x 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.99 with a 4.49% dividend yield, HASI trades below its historical multiple and well below the $44.13 high, offering a wider margin of safety than at the peak, but the stock already discounts a favorable rate and policy path.

Source-backed data

HASI Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
HASI price	$37.87 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 0.24% on the day	StockAnalysis.com real-time quote	August 3, 2026
Market capitalization	$4.89 billion, computed as $37.87 x 129.16 million shares outstanding	StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics	August 3, 2026
Q1 2026 adjusted results	Adjusted EPS of $0.77, up 20% year over year from $0.64; adjusted earnings of $102 million, up 31%; record adjusted ROE of 15.7% versus 12.8%	HASI Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call	May 7, 2026
Q1 2026 operating metrics	Adjusted recurring net investment income up 29% year over year to just over $100 million; managed assets up 13% to $16.4 billion; portfolio yield of 9.2% up 90 basis points year over year; new asset yields above 10.5% for the eighth straight quarter	HASI Q1 2026 earnings call	May 7, 2026
Q1 2026 volume and pipeline	Total volume of $637 million, of which $462 million will be held at CCH1 and on the balance sheet; pipeline greater than $6.5 billion; 2026 investment expectation of $2 billion to $3 billion	HASI Q1 2026 earnings call	May 7, 2026
Q1 2026 gain on sale and fees	Gain on sale of $23 million in Q1 2026, with management expecting lower gain on sale in the remaining quarters; upfront fees from CCH1 and advisory fees contributed $9 million	HASI Q1 2026 earnings call	May 7, 2026
Q1 2026 GAAP results	GAAP net loss of about $72 million attributable to common, driven by an HLBV loss related to the timing of tax credit sale proceeds distributed to tax equity investors, which management expects to fully reverse in Q2 2026	HASI Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL	August 3, 2026
2028 guidance	Adjusted EPS of $3.50 to $3.60 and adjusted ROE of 17%, reaffirmed at Q1 2026	HASI Q1 2026 earnings call	May 7, 2026
Equity funding	No shares issued through the ATM in Q1 2026; minimal additional issuance expected in 2026 based on current funding expectations	HASI Q1 2026 earnings call	May 7, 2026
February 2026 refinancing	Issued $400 million of 6% senior notes and $600 million of 7.8% junior subordinated notes; retired $450 million of 2027 senior bonds at 8%; weighted average maturity of corporate term debt extended from 7.9 to 12.8 years	HASI Q1 2026 earnings call	May 7, 2026
June 2026 green notes	Priced $1.0 billion of 5.950% green senior unsecured notes due 2033 on June 16, 2026	HASI press release via Business Wire	June 16, 2026
Neogenyx joint venture	Jointly launched Neogenyx with Ameresco, a spin-off of Ameresco biofuels, with an initial HASI investment of $400 million, 30% ownership, and a priority position on debt cash distributions	HASI Q1 2026 earnings call	May 7, 2026
CCH1 co-investment platform	CCH1 assets of $2.3 billion as of Q1 2026; fee-generating assets up 130% year over year to $1.1 billion; CCH1 private debt placement priced at a spread of 195 basis points to the 10-year Treasury	HASI Q1 2026 earnings call	May 7, 2026
FY2025 adjusted EPS	$2.70 for FY2025, up from $2.45 in FY2024, about a 10% increase	StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast	August 3, 2026
2026 and 2027 consensus estimates	FY2026 adjusted EPS of $2.99, up 10.7%; FY2027 adjusted EPS of $3.30, up 10.5%; FY2026 revenue estimate of $120.92 million and FY2027 revenue estimate of $215.67 million	StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast	August 3, 2026
Dividend	Quarterly dividend of $0.425 per share, annual dividend of $1.70, forward yield of 4.49%, ex-dividend date July 2, 2026, with dividend growth of 1.20% year over year and 7 consecutive years of growth	StockAnalysis.com dividend history	August 3, 2026
Analyst consensus	Buy rating across 16 analysts with an average price target of $49.27, about 30% above the July 31, 2026 close, a median of $50, and a range of $41 to $57	StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings	August 3, 2026
Analyst rating mix, July 2026	10 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell out of 16 analysts	StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends	August 3, 2026
Recent analyst target updates	Citi maintains Buy at $50 on July 23; J.P. Morgan maintains Buy at $50 on July 21; RBC maintains Buy at $48 on July 18; Goldman Sachs maintains Hold at $43 on June 17; Morgan Stanley raised to $57 from $54 on May 27	StockAnalysis.com forecast analyst actions	July 23, 2026
Balance sheet as of March 31, 2026	Cash and cash equivalents of $124.5 million, total assets of $8.202 billion, long-term debt of $5.002 billion, and stockholders equity of $2.535 billion, matching the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL	HASI Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL	August 3, 2026
Current balance sheet per S&P Global	Cash of $150.5 million, total debt of $5.39 billion, net cash of negative $5.24 billion, book value of $2.53 billion, and book value per share of $19.21, per the StockAnalysis.com statistics page	StockAnalysis.com statistics	August 3, 2026
Valuation check	Trailing PE of 87.76, forward PE of 12.58, PS of 55.64, PB of 1.97, P/TBV of 2.00, P/OCF of 22.23, and PEG of 1.08	StockAnalysis.com statistics	August 3, 2026
Short interest	10.93 million shares short, 8.46% of shares outstanding, 8.71% of float, and 11.03 days to cover, down from 11.19 million the prior month	StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling	August 3, 2026
Trailing free cash flow	Operating cash flow of $220.05 million over TTM, with free cash flow of $220.05 million because capital expenditures are not material	StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement	August 3, 2026
52-week range and beta	52-week range of $24.38 to $44.13, 52-week price change of plus 41.04%, and a beta of 1.42	StockAnalysis.com statistics	August 3, 2026
Next earnings date	Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 6, 2026 after market close, announced July 20, 2026	HASI press release via Business Wire and StockAnalysis.com	July 20, 2026
Technical snapshot	5-day SMA near $38.13, 20-day SMA near $38.10, 50-day SMA near $38.80, 100-day SMA near $38.96, 200-day SMA near $36.14, 14-day RSI near 45.24, 14-day ADX near 21.65, 14-day historical volatility near 20.36%, 20-day average volume near 0.80 million shares	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots	August 3, 2026

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This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell HASI stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff and may be wrong. GAAP results can be distorted by HLBV and other non-cash items. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.