Garrett Motion Inc. research snapshot
GTX AI stock analysis reads Garrett Motion as a better-run auto supplier after a strong Q2 2026 report that beat estimates and raised the full-year outlook, with the stock consolidating below its 50-day moving average. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the stock traded near $31.42 on August 3, up about 0.9% from the $31.15 close on July 31, with a market capitalization of about $5.86 billion. The Q2 2026 report on July 29 beat the consensus with net sales of $976 million up 7% reported and 5% at constant currency, adjusted EBIT of $152 million at a record 15.6% margin up 200 basis points, adjusted free cash flow of $122 million, and diluted EPS of $0.53 versus the $0.49 consensus. Management raised the 2026 outlook across the board, guided to about $200 million of industrial turbo sales for the year, cut net leverage to 1.8x, and repurchased $28 million of stock in the quarter. The stock jumped about 7.75% on July 30 after Deutsche Bank upgraded it to Buy, but it still trades below the 50-day moving average near $32.63 and about 13% below the $36.25 June high. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$31.42 intraday on August 3, 2026, up about 0.9% from the $31.15 July 31 close
Market cap
$5.86 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Improved cyclical execution after a record Q2, with a raised outlook and lower net leverage
Trend status
Consolidating below the 50-day moving average near $32.63 and at the 20-day near $31.44, above the 100-day near $27.19 and 200-day near $22.39, about 13% off the $36.25 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Garrett is the global leader in turbocharger technology with strong engineering heritage from Honeywell, and it is expanding into electrification, fuel cell compressors, industrial air compression, and data center genset applications. Q2 2026 net sales rose 7% reported and 5% at constant currency to $976 million, with growth across all verticals. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from decades of Honeywell-derived turbo engineering, long OEM development cycles, scale manufacturing, aftermarket brand recognition, and growing electrification and industrial IP. New wins include the Garrett MEG200 for data center power generation, several genset awards, and the first production award for industrial air compression. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Olivier Rabiller and the leadership team have run the post-Chapter 11 recovery with margin discipline, a raised 2026 outlook, a $50 million voluntary term loan repayment in Q2, and $28 million of stock repurchases in the quarter. Capital allocation discipline and execution against the $200 million industrial turbo target remain the key monitors. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT reached a record $152 million at a 15.6% margin, adjusted free cash flow was $122 million, and diluted EPS of $0.53 beat the $0.49 consensus. Management raised full-year 2026 net sales to $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion, adjusted EBIT to $560 million to $600 million, and adjusted free cash flow to $385 million to $475 million. TTM revenue was about $3.75 billion and TTM net income about $357 million. | High |
| Valuation | At about 17.27x trailing earnings, 16.29x forward earnings, 15.92x free cash flow, 1.55x sales, and 11.13x EV/EBITDA, the stock looks reasonable for a well-run cyclical supplier, but the balance sheet has negative book value and the price still carries cyclical and technology transition risk. | Medium |
| Technical trend | GTX is consolidating after hitting a 52-week high of $36.25 on June 30 and pulling back to about $28.58 on the July 29 earnings day before rebounding about 7.75% to $31.01 on July 30. It trades above the 100-day moving average near $27.19 and the 200-day near $22.39, at the 20-day near $31.44, and below the 50-day near $32.63, with a 14-day RSI near 48. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are auto production cyclicality with 2026 light vehicle production expected down 2% to 4%, EV transition reducing turbo content per vehicle, renewed tariff concerns, negative book value from the restructuring, customer and program concentration, and a stock that has already risen about 142% over the trailing 52 weeks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for the Q2 2026 results, guidance, market cap math, valuation ratios, and technical snapshot. Lower confidence for long-term return estimates because the auto cycle, EV adoption, tariffs, and the pace of industrial and data center genset wins are hard to forecast. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Garrett is a better business at a fair price after the Q2 report, but cyclical, technological, tariff, and balance-sheet factors make the outcome path-dependent. | Medium |
GTX AI stock forecast
The GTX AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $31.42 August 3 reference price and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of about $2.11. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires sustained auto production, faster industrial and data center genset growth, margin expansion, and continued deleveraging. The base case assumes Garrett compounds earnings while the valuation stays range-bound as a cyclical supplier. The bearish case assumes a cyclical downturn, tariff cost pressure, or faster EV disruption.
$42 to $57
More likely if global auto production stabilizes, industrial turbo sales exceed the roughly $200 million full-year view, data center genset wins including the MEG200 scale, margins keep expanding, and the market assigns 18x to 20x on rising EPS. The $42 high analyst target from BWS Financial and the model output near $53 support this path.
$33 to $42
More likely if earnings grow toward the raised 2026 guidance, the company keeps deleveraging and returning capital, and the stock trades near 15x to 17x forward earnings. This zone overlaps the $36.50 consensus target and the $36 median.
$21 to $29
More likely if light vehicle production falls faster than the guided 2% to 4%, tariffs cut into margins, EV adoption reduces turbo content, or net leverage rises again, resetting the multiple to 11x to 13x. The low $33 analyst target and the 100-day moving average near $27 mark this area.
GTX AI technical analysis
GTX AI technical analysis starts from the $31.42 August 3 reference price after a $31.15 close on July 31. The stock hit a 52-week high of $36.25 on June 30, pulled back to a closing low near $28.78 on the July 29 earnings day, rebounded about 7.75% to $31.01 on July 30 after the Deutsche upgrade, and closed at $31.15 on July 31. It now trades above the 100-day moving average near $27.19 and the 200-day near $22.39, at the 20-day near $31.44, and below the 50-day near $32.63, with a 14-day RSI near 48 and a 14-day ADX near 27 with slightly negative directional pressure. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.42 | StockAnalysis.com real-time snapshot on the morning of August 3, 2026, up about 0.9% from the $31.15 close on July 31, which is the last verified daily close before this cutoff. |
| Near support | $30.64 to $31.15 | The July 31 low of $30.64 and the July 31 close of $31.15. A pullback into this area would keep the post-earnings rebound intact. |
| Secondary support | $28.58 to $29.14 | The July 29 earnings-day low of $28.58 and the July 28 low of $29.14. A break below this zone would signal that the rebound has failed. |
| Major support | $27.19 | The 100-day moving average near $27.19. A sustained break below this level would weaken the medium-term structure. |
| Near resistance | $31.44 to $32.63 | The 20-day moving average near $31.44 and the 50-day moving average near $32.63 form the immediate overhead zone. A close above the 50-day would improve the short-term setup. |
| Secondary resistance | $33.59 to $36.25 | The July 1 close near $33.59 and the June 30 52-week high of $36.25. A move through $36.25 would be a new all-time high. |
| 20-day moving average | About $31.44 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $31.44 on August 3, essentially at the current price. |
| 50-day moving average | About $32.63 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $32.63, above the current price and acting as overhead resistance. |
| 100-day moving average | About $27.19 | GTX is well above the 100-day moving average near $27.19, which is now the major support reference. |
| 200-day moving average | About $22.39 | GTX is well above the 200-day moving average near $22.39, confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48, ADX near 27 | 14-day RSI near 48.01 on Barchart and 48.12 on StockAnalysis.com is neutral. 14-day ADX near 27.23 with negative directional pressure (about -DI 25.05 versus +DI 17.57 on Barchart) reflects consolidation rather than a strong directional trend. |
| Volume | About 2.1 million shares average | 20-day average volume near 2.1 million shares, with elevated volume on the July 29 earnings day at about 3.5 million shares and the July 30 rebound at about 2.7 million. |
| Volatility | 14-day historic volatility near 43%, beta 0.79 | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 42.77% with an average daily range near 3.7%. Beta of 0.79 means the stock has moved less than the market over five years. |
| Invalidation | Close below $28.58, then $27.19 | A close below the July 29 earnings-day low near $28.58 weakens the near-term rebound. A break below the 100-day area near $27.19 would challenge the bull case. |
GTX AI trading strategy
The GTX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for GTX to reclaim the $31.44 to $32.63 resistance zone, which includes the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with improving volume. A move back toward the $33.59 to $36.25 area would confirm that the post-earnings rebound is turning into a renewed uptrend.
A failed move above the 20-day or 50-day average, or a daily close below the $28.58 to $29.14 support zone, should reduce confidence. The stock is about 13% below its June high, so momentum chasing carries additional risk.
If GTX pulls back toward $28.58 to $29.14 after the strong earnings report, look for price stabilization, volume drying up, and a confirmed test of the 100-day area near $27.19 as potential re-entry signals, confirmed by fundamental checks on guidance and auto production data.
Do not assume the uptrend will resume just because Q2 was strong. Define maximum loss, and consider that the auto cycle, tariffs, and EV adoption could change the thesis.
Track the Q3 2026 report, auto production data, the pace of industrial and data center genset wins, tariff policy, adjusted EBIT margin trajectory, net leverage, and capital returns. Management expects about $200 million of industrial turbo sales in 2026.
Lower the rating if margins contract, net leverage rises, a major OEM program is lost, or tariffs materially raise costs. Monitor whether light vehicle production falls faster than the guided 2% to 4%.
Investment research summary
Garrett designs and manufactures turbochargers, electric boosting systems, fuel cell compressors, and industrial air compression technologies for automotive, commercial vehicle, off-highway, and industrial customers, and it is now supplying turbos for data center power generation gensets.
The moat comes from decades of Honeywell-derived turbo engineering, long-term OEM development cycles, scale manufacturing, strong aftermarket brand recognition, and growing electrification and industrial IP. New awards include the Garrett MEG200 for data center gensets, several other genset awards, and the first production award for industrial air compression.
The thesis can fail if auto production enters a prolonged downturn, BEVs eliminate turbo content, tariffs cut into margins, Garrett loses a key OEM program, leverage becomes a constraint in a recession, or the stock gives back more of the 2026 run because the market treats it as a cyclical at fair value rather than a structural grower.
CEO Olivier Rabiller has led Garrett through its Chapter 11 emergence and the recovery since. The team delivered a record 15.6% adjusted EBIT margin in Q2 2026, raised the full-year outlook, repaid $50 million of term loan voluntarily, cut net leverage to 1.8x, and repurchased $28 million of stock in the quarter. The key question is whether capital allocation and execution discipline hold as the auto cycle turns.
The turbocharger market is mature in internal combustion, and EV adoption at about 19% average penetration in 2026 reduces turbo content per vehicle over time. Garrett is countering this with industrial and data center genset turbos, e-turbos, e-compressors, fuel cell compressors, and a partnership with Ingersoll Rand on oil-free air compression, so the trend is a gradual transition rather than an overnight disruption.
At roughly 17.27x trailing earnings, 16.29x forward earnings, 15.92x free cash flow, and 11.13x EV/EBITDA, Garrett is reasonably valued for a cyclical supplier after the Q2 beat. The margin of safety depends on where the auto cycle is, whether earnings grow toward the raised guidance, and whether the negative book value from the restructuring constrains the balance-sheet analysis.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTX price | $31.42 intraday on August 3, 2026, up about 0.9% from the $31.15 close on July 31 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.86 billion, verified as $31.42 x 186.49 million shares (0.01% deviation) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $7.07 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $3.75 billion, up 8.5% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $357 million, up 18.6% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $1.82, up 27.4% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net sales | $976 million, up 7% reported and 5% at constant currency, versus $913 million in Q2 2025 | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT | $152 million at a record 15.6% margin, up 200 basis points from 13.6% in Q2 2025 | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted free cash flow | $122 million, versus $121 million in Q2 2025 | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | Diluted EPS of $0.53, consensus $0.49, with revenue of $976 million versus the $964.76 million consensus | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly via TipRanks | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 raised outlook | Net sales $3.7B to $3.9B (from $3.6B to $3.9B), constant currency growth +1% to +7% (from -2% to +6%), net income $330M to $360M, adjusted EBIT $560M to $600M (from $520M to $600M), adjusted free cash flow $385M to $475M (from $355M to $475M) | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 industry assumptions | Light vehicle production down 2% to 4%, commercial vehicle up 1% to 2%, average light vehicle BEV penetration about 19%, EUR/USD at 1.16 | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $158 million, total debt of about $1.42 billion, net cash of about -$1.26 billion or -$6.75 per share, and book value of -$675 million at June 30, 2026, with total debt principal of $1,386 million down from $1,439 million at December 31, 2025 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Garrett Motion Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Net leverage and liquidity | Net leverage of 1.8x, down from the prior quarter, with $788 million of total liquidity including $158 million cash and $630 million of undrawn revolver, after a $50 million voluntary term loan repayment in Q2 | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.27x trailing PE, 16.29x forward PE, 0.91x PEG, 1.55x PS, 15.92x P/FCF, 13.14x P/OCF, 11.13x EV/EBITDA, 19.37x EV/FCF, 6.28% FCF yield, 6.15% earnings yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of about $442 million, capex of about -$77 million, and free cash flow of about $365 million, or $1.96 per share | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.32 annual (1.02% yield), paid quarterly at $0.08 per share, with the Q3 dividend payable September 15, 2026 to shareholders of record September 1, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and Garrett Motion Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital returns | $28 million of stock repurchased in Q2 and $115 million year to date under a $250 million authorization, with about $135 million remaining, plus $15 million of dividends paid in Q2 | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 186.49 million, down 6.97% year over year, with 186,800,685 shares outstanding at June 30, 2026 per the Q2 2026 report | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Garrett Motion Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 6 analysts, average target $36.50, low $33, median $36, high $42, with Deutsche Bank upgrading to Buy from Hold at $36 on July 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | July 30, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy from Hold with a $36 target on July 30, 2026; BWS Financial maintained Buy at $42 on July 30, 2026; Stifel maintained Buy at $36 on July 30, 2026; J.P. Morgan maintained Buy at $33 on July 10, 2026; Freedom Capital downgraded to Hold at $26 on May 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $3.82 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.11, FY2027 revenue estimate $3.99 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.25, and a 3-year EPS growth forecast near 18.15% | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $12.26 to $36.25, up about 142.51% over the trailing 52 weeks and about 79.23% year to date, with beta 0.79 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.45 million shares, 2.92% of shares outstanding, 2.96% of float, about 1.96 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day MA near $30.42, 20-day MA near $31.44, 50-day MA near $32.63, 100-day MA near $27.19, 200-day MA near $22.39, 14-day RSI near 48, 14-day ADX near 27, 14-day historic volatility near 42.77% | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Industrial turbo outlook | Over $80 million of industrial turbo sales in the first half of 2026, with a full-year view of about $200 million, including genset awards and the Garrett MEG200 for data center power generation | Garrett Motion Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
This GTX AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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