GRAIL, Inc. research snapshot
GRAL AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads GRAIL as a high-risk, pre-profit multi-cancer early detection (MCED) diagnostics company that has recovered most of its June selloff but still carries an unusually wide risk band. The stock closed at $70.27 on August 3, 2026, up 1.71 or 2.49% from the $68.56 close on July 31, after opening at $69.53 and trading in a session range of $66.65 to $71.51, with the daily history table confirming the same $70.27 close and an after-hours quote of $70.04, down 0.23 or 0.32%, carrying a market capitalization near $3.02 billion, matching the $70.27 price times 42.92 million shares outstanding. TTM revenue is $156.12 million, up 19.44% year over year, against a TTM net loss near $395.33 million, a gross margin near 49.28%, and a cash and short-term investments balance near $823.11 million with only $51.03 million of total debt as of March 31, 2026. The chart has rebuilt from the June decline that followed the NHS-Galleri data release and the subsequent securities litigation, with the stock trading above its 50-day average near $66.88 and below its 200-day average near $74.25. Upcoming catalysts include Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close, the Canaccord Genuity growth conference presentation, and continued coverage and litigation developments. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$70.27 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.71 or 2.49% from the $68.56 July 31 close, after opening at $69.53 and trading in a session range of $66.65 to $71.51, with the daily history table confirming the same $70.27 close and an after-hours quote of $70.04, down 0.23 or 0.32%
Market cap
$3.02 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $70.27 price times 42.92 million shares outstanding, with financial_rigor.py verification showing a 0.13% deviation from the reported value
AI score
47 / 100
Rating
High-risk pre-profit MCED with litigation overhang and a recovering chart
Trend status
Recovered from the June selloff to $70.27, above the 50-day average near $66.88 but below the 200-day average near $74.25
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GRAIL sells the Galleri multi-cancer early detection blood test targeting asymptomatic individuals over 50, plus precision oncology services. Customers pay because early cancer detection can reduce late-stage diagnoses and improve outcomes, but the test is not yet a standard-of-care covered by all insurers. | Medium |
| Moat | GRAIL has a first-mover position in MCED with the NHS-Galleri randomized controlled trial, the PATHFINDER 2 dataset, a population-scale evidence program of more than 380,000 participants, methylation-based IP, and an ordering physician base. But Guardant, Natera, Exact Sciences, and others are developing alternatives, so the moat is contestable. | Low-medium |
| Management | Management, led by CEO Dr. Joshua Ofman and CFO Aaron Freidin, has executed the Galleri commercial rollout, closed a $110 million Samsung financing at $70.05 per share to extend runway and support Asia expansion, added a Priority Health employer-plan collaboration, and advanced PATHFINDER 2 and FDA-related milestones. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $156.12 million, up 19.44% year over year, with a 49.28% gross margin, but the company remains deeply unprofitable with a TTM net loss near $395.33 million and negative free cash flow near $292.33 million. Cash and short-term investments of $823.11 million with only $51.03 million of total debt provide runway, but it is burning. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $70.27 and $3.02 billion market cap, GRAL trades at roughly 19.32x TTM revenue, 14.37x EV/Revenue, and 1.16x book value, with an enterprise value near $2.24 billion reflecting the large cash balance. The multiples are below high-growth MCED peers but still require significant adoption to justify. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshots show GRAL recovering from the June selloff, trading above the 50-day average near $66.88 and below the 200-day average near $74.25, with a 14-day RSI near 53.24. The stock has a beta of 3.22, making it extremely sensitive to news flow. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include pre-profit cash burn, securities class action litigation, reimbursement delays, competitive MCED tests, mixed clinical data headlines, Illumina overhang from the spinoff, short interest near 18% of shares out, and the need for future capital raises. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for descriptive facts and audited calculations, low for forward scenarios and adoption curve estimates. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low |
GRAL AI stock forecast
The GRAL AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $70.27 quote. GRAL is pre-profit and burns cash, so the forecast focuses on revenue growth, cash runway, and potential valuation scenarios rather than EPS-based models. The analyst consensus is Buy with a $70.13 average target across 9 firms, ranging from $56 to $88, and the framework points to a bearish area near $40 to $55, a base area near $60 to $80, and a bullish area near $88 to $110.
$88 to $110
More likely if Medicare and major commercial insurers expand Galleri coverage, FDA review advances, NHS-Galleri follow-up data supports guideline inclusion, Samsung partnership drives Asia-Pacific expansion including South Korea, Japan, and Singapore, and Q2 2026 results on August 5 support faster revenue growth toward the 21% to 25% consensus path.
$60 to $80
More likely if GRAL grows revenue roughly 20% year over year toward the $178.75 million FY2026 consensus, expands employer-direct and plan-based contracts such as Priority Health, maintains its cash runway, but faces competitive headwinds from Guardant, Natera, and Exact Sciences and a litigation overhang without broad coverage expansion.
$40 to $55
More likely if Medicare or BCBS declines broad Galleri coverage, Q2 2026 results disappoint, the securities litigation expands and distracts management, cash burn forces a dilutive capital raise, or a competitor shows better sensitivity and specificity in a head-to-head comparison.
GRAL AI technical analysis
GRAL AI technical analysis reflects a high-beta, news-driven stock with wide ranges as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock sold off sharply in June after the NHS-Galleri data release, bottoming near $54.52 intraday on June 1, 2026, and has since rebuilt to $70.27, above the 50-day average near $66.88 but below the 200-day average near $74.25. The 52-week range from $29.95 to $118.84 highlights the extreme volatility, with beta at 3.22 and RSI near 53.24.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $70.27 | Quote snapshots around the August 4, 2026 cutoff placed GRAL near $70.27 at the August 3 close, recovering from the June selloff. |
| Near support | $66.65 to $68 | The 50-day moving average near $66.88 and the recent pullback lows near $66.65 to $67 provide the first support zone below the current price. |
| Key support | $62 to $64 | The July 28 and July 29 lows near $62.09 and $63.26 form the next support band if the recovery stalls. |
| Major support | $54.52 area | The June 1, 2026 intraday low near $54.52 marks the bottom of the post-NHS-Galleri selloff and is the critical floor to watch. |
| Near resistance | $71.51 to $75 | The August 3 session high near $71.51 and the July highs near $75.00 to $76.07 sit just above the current price. |
| Major resistance | $80 and $118.84 | Round-number resistance near $80 and the 52-week high near $118.84 mark the major upside references, requiring significant positive catalysts to challenge. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53.24, high beta | The 14-day RSI near 53.24 is neutral, and momentum indicators are less reliable for GRAL because the stock moves primarily on clinical data, coverage, and litigation news. |
| Volume | Average volume near 514,000 shares (20-day) | Volume spikes significantly on earnings, trial data, coverage announcements, and litigation news, making breakout quality more interpretable on volume surges. |
| Volatility | Beta 3.22, wide 52-week range | The 52-week range spans $29.95 to $118.84, meaning moves of 20% to 30% on single catalysts are normal. |
| Invalidation | Close below $54.52 | A decisive close below the June 1 low near $54.52 would weaken the recovery thesis, and a break below the $62 to $64 band would signal the rally is losing momentum. |
GRAL AI trading strategy
The GRAL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a pre-profit MCED diagnostics stock after mixed clinical data and active litigation. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh trial data, coverage decisions, cash runway updates, litigation developments, and a defined invalidation level. The high beta means position size should reflect extreme gap risk.
Watch for GRAL to hold above the $66.88 area after positive reimbursement, partnership, clinical follow-up, or Q2 2026 results on August 5. A volume-confirmed breakout above $75 would signal renewed institutional interest. The Samsung $110 million investment at $70.05 per share provides a reference anchor near the current price.
Use a stop near the $62 to $64 band or below the reaction low following a catalyst. Do not add to a losing position after negative coverage, trial data, or litigation headlines without fresh fundamental analysis.
If GRAL pulls back toward the $62 to $66 zone without negative cash-burn, coverage, or litigation news, compare with cash runway, revenue growth trajectory, and the Q2 2026 results before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a pre-defined loss rule because MCED diagnostics stocks can gap 20% or more on Medicare coverage decisions, competitive trial readouts, or adverse litigation developments.
Track Galleri test volume growth, Medicare and BCBS coverage decisions, FDA review progress, cash burn rate and runway, Q2 2026 results on August 5, clinical data readouts, securities litigation status, Samsung partnership development in Asia, and management commentary on payer adoption.
Reduce or exit if cash runway drops below 12 months without a clear financing path, if a major payer issues a blanket non-coverage decision for MCED testing, or if litigation results create material financial or governance risk.
Investment research summary
GRAIL sells a single blood test, Galleri, that screens for more than 50 cancer types at once. Customers and health systems pay because finding cancer earlier can reduce late-stage treatment costs and improve survival odds, but the test is an out-of-pocket or employer-sponsored service for most, not yet standard insurance coverage.
GRAILs moat rests on the Galleri clinical dataset including the NHS-Galleri randomized controlled trial and PATHFINDER 2, an evidence program of more than 380,000 participants, an installed base of ordering physicians, and methylation-based IP. But Guardant, Natera, Exact Sciences, and others are racing to develop competing MCED tests, making the moat contestable.
The thesis fails if Medicare and BCBS decline broad coverage, leaving Galleri a niche employer-pay product. It also fails if cash burn forces dilutive financing before revenue reaches scale, if the securities litigation expands and distracts management, or if a competitor shows better sensitivity and specificity in a head-to-head comparison.
Management should be judged by commercial execution, payer contracting progress, clinical trial strategy, capital allocation between marketing spend and R&D, the Samsung partnership in Asia, and whether they reach a clear path to breakeven before exhausting the $823.11 million cash and investments balance.
Multi-cancer early detection sits inside a long-term structural trend toward liquid biopsy and preventive medicine. The MCED market could reach $10B or more if broad coverage materializes, but the adoption curve depends on guideline inclusion, payer reimbursement, FDA review, and clinical utility evidence generation.
At roughly 19.32x TTM revenue and an enterprise value near $2.24 billion, GRAL is priced for meaningful commercial success but not for category leadership. Margin of safety is low because the company is pre-profit, litigation and competitive timelines are uncertain, and a single negative coverage or litigation decision could cut the stock sharply.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRAL price | $70.27 at the August 3, 2026 close, up 2.49% | StockAnalysis.com quote and daily history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.02 billion, verified as $70.27 x 42.92 million shares with a 0.13% deviation | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 42.92 million, up 17.18% year over year after the Samsung financing | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $156.12 million, up 19.44% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$395.33 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $823.11 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt and net cash | $51.03 million total debt and $772.08 million net cash | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.24 billion, matching $70.27 x 42.92 million plus $51.03 million debt minus $823.11 million cash | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py calculation | August 4, 2026 |
| Key valuation ratios | Price/Sales 19.32, Forward PS 16.20, Price/Book 1.16, EV/Revenue 14.37 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Beta | 3.22 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Samsung equity investment | $110 million at $70.05 per share, closed June 25, 2026 | PR Newswire release | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 9 analysts, average target $70.13, range $56 to $88 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue forecast | $178.75 million, up 21.46% from $147.17 million in FY2025 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.73 million shares, 18.02% of shares out, 12.73 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell GRAL stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. GRAIL is a pre-profit commercial-stage company with significant cash burn, competitive, reimbursement, and litigation risks. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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