Gulfport Energy Corporation research snapshot
GPOR AI stock analysis reads Gulfport Energy as a low-cost natural gas producer with quality Utica Shale and SCOOP acreage, very low leverage, active buybacks, and a growing inventory position, but the stock still trades well below its 200-day moving average and depends on natural gas prices recovering. The August 3, 2026 close was $163.84 after the company reported second quarter 2026 net income of $87.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $179.1 million, while also disclosing that CFO Michael Hodges is resigning effective August 5, 2026. The August 4, 2026 setup is not a clear buy signal because forward earnings are expected to fall on softer gas prices, the CFO transition adds key-person risk, and the equity remains highly sensitive to Henry Hub prices. The GPOR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a guaranteed price prediction.
Current price
$163.84
Market cap
$2.94 billion verified market cap
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Low-cost natural gas E&P with quality Utica and SCOOP assets, very low leverage, active buybacks, and growing inventory, but earnings depend on gas prices and the CFO transition adds leadership risk
Trend status
Improving after a rebound off the 52-week low; above the 50-day moving average but still below the 200-day
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Gulfport sells natural gas, NGLs, and crude oil from its Utica Shale and SCOOP assets. Q2 2026 net income was $87.1 million and adjusted EBITDA was $179.1 million, but realized commodity prices still drive earnings. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from core Utica acreage, a low-cost structure, operating expertise in the play, and inventory depth. It lacks pricing power because natural gas is a commodity. | Medium |
| Management | Nick Dell'Osso became President and CEO in May 2026 after leading Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake) through its own transformation. CFO Michael Hodges is resigning effective August 5, 2026, which is a leadership risk to monitor. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $1.41 billion and TTM net income of $563.31 million show strong trailing profitability, and Gulfport repurchased roughly $242.8 million of stock in the first half of 2026. However, Q2 2026 adjusted free cash flow was only $6.4 million on elevated capex, and forward earnings are expected to fall. | High |
| Valuation | At $163.84, financial_rigor.py verifies about 5.39x TTM EPS, 1.60x book value, 20.05x levered FCF, and no dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock rebounded from a 52-week low of $149.18 to $163.84 and now sits above the 50-day moving average, but it remains below the 200-day moving average and RSI is near 70 after the bounce. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because lower natural gas prices, single-basin concentration (Utica/SCOOP), a low cash balance, a small market cap, and the CFO transition can all affect equity value. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for financial metrics and Q2 2026 results but lower for forward projections because GPOR moves sharply with natural gas prices and macro sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The investment case depends on whether current gas prices represent a cyclical trough or a structural shift, and whether the CEO and a new CFO can sustain the operating and financial trajectory. | Medium-low |
GPOR AI stock forecast
The GPOR AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the equity is sensitive to natural gas prices, production volumes, cost control, acreage additions, and market multiples. Using the $163.84 price reference, forward EPS near $22.82 implied by the 7.18 forward P/E, and the audited three-year scenario model, the mechanical outputs are about $273 in a bullish case, $150 in a base case, and $54 in a bearish case before any potential dividend.
$250 to $290 before any potential dividend
More likely if natural gas prices strengthen on winter demand, LNG export growth, or supply discipline; Gulfport grows production and cash flow from the new Ohio acreage and Utica/Marcellus program; the CEO executes and a stable CFO successor is named; and the market re-rates GPOR above 8x forward earnings.
$140 to $165 before any potential dividend
More likely if natural gas prices remain near current levels, GPOR maintains production but faces modest margin compression, the CFO transition proceeds without disruption, and the market values GPOR near 6x forward earnings.
$45 to $65 before any potential dividend
More likely if natural gas prices fall further, production declines or costs rise, the acreage program fails to add value, debt becomes harder to service given the very low cash balance, or the leadership transition disrupts operations.
GPOR AI technical analysis
GPOR AI technical analysis is improving but still cautious as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance showed an August 3, 2026 close of $163.84, a 52-week range of $149.18 to $225.78, and the stock rebounded sharply off the late-July low. The stock is now above the 50-day moving average near $162.70 but still below the 200-day moving average near $189.31.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $163.84 | Yahoo Finance listed the August 3, 2026 close at $163.84, up 1.53% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $162 to $163 | The 50-day moving average sits near $162.70. Holding above it keeps the short-term rebound intact. |
| Deeper support | $149 to $156 | The 52-week low of $149.18 and the 20-day moving average near $156.63 mark the next support zone. |
| Near resistance | $166 to $172 | The stock must reclaim this zone to extend the bounce and confirm buyers are in control. |
| Upper resistance | $185 to $196 | The 200-day moving average near $189.31 and the pre-decline breakdown area make this the major hurdle. |
| Moving averages | Above 20-day and 50-day, below 200-day | The short-term averages are turning higher, but the 200-day moving average near $189.31 is still well above the price. |
| Momentum | Positive after the rebound, RSI near 70 | RSI14 near 70 after the bounce from the 52-week low, which is short-term overbought. |
| Volume | Average near 384,000 shares | Volume should be monitored for confirmation of the rebound and for capitulation spikes. |
| Volatility | Watch the Q2 2026 earnings call on August 4, 2026 | The earnings call, gas price moves, and any CFO successor news are the most likely catalysts. |
| Invalidation | Close below the 50-day moving average, then below $149.18 | A close back below $162 to $163 would weaken the rebound. Bulls would need to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $189 to change the medium-term picture. |
GPOR AI trading strategy
The GPOR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with natural gas prices, production data, cost trends, acreage spending, buybacks, debt levels, and the leadership transition.
Wait for GPOR to establish a base above the 50-day moving average near $162.70 with improving natural gas prices, stable production guidance, and evidence that the CEO and a new CFO are executing on the strategy.
A close below the 50-day moving average should reduce trend confidence, especially if natural gas prices continue to weaken.
If GPOR retests the $149 to $156 zone but natural gas fundamentals have not structurally deteriorated, compare the lower price with asset value, forward cash flow, balance-sheet strength, and the value of the new acreage additions.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if natural gas prices suggest a prolonged downturn or if the leadership transition undermines execution.
Track Henry Hub and regional natural gas prices, Gulfport production and cost per Mcfe, debt and liquidity, the $430 million 2026 capex program, acreage spending, buybacks, and CEO and CFO communications on capital allocation.
Position sizing should reflect that GPOR is a small-cap, single-basin E&P with extreme gas-price sensitivity, not a guaranteed AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Gulfport because homes, power plants, and industrial users still need natural gas for heating, electricity generation, and chemical feedstocks. GPOR converts Utica Shale and SCOOP acreage, wells, and low-cost operating capability into cash flow.
The moat is strongest in core Utica acreage, a low-cost structure, operating expertise, and inventory depth that is growing through the new Ohio land lease and acreage program. It is weaker in pricing power because natural gas is a commodity with limited differentiation between producers.
The thesis fails if natural gas prices stay low or fall further, production declines, costs rise, the acreage program fails to add value, the low cash balance becomes a constraint, or the CFO and CEO transitions disrupt operations.
Nick Dell'Osso brings a strong turnaround track record from Chesapeake/Expand Energy, and he joined in May 2026. The CFO transition announced July 31, 2026 raises key-person risk, and the team must now execute through a prolonged gas downturn with a permanent CFO search under way.
Natural gas remains essential for power generation, heating, and industrial use, and U.S. LNG export growth provides long-term demand support. The offset is that E&P companies face commodity price cyclicality, and structurally lower gas prices from prolific supply growth could compress margins.
At $163.84, GPOR trades at about 5.4x TTM earnings and 1.60x book value. The margin of safety would improve if natural gas prices stabilize or rise, the new management team proves execution, and the forward earnings trajectory looks more predictable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPOR quote reference | $163.84 close on August 3, 2026 | Yahoo Finance GPOR | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $2.944 billion reported and $2.944 billion calculated from $163.84 x 17.97 million shares, 0.00% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 17.97 million shares estimated from market cap and price | Calculated from Yahoo Finance market cap and price | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $3.72 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.41 billion | Yahoo Finance financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $563.31 million | Yahoo Finance financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and forward P/E implied EPS | $30.42 TTM diluted EPS; forward P/E of 7.18 implies forward EPS near $22.82 | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net income $87.1 million, adjusted EBITDA $179.1 million, adjusted free cash flow $6.4 million, net daily production 962.8 MMcfe (91% gas, 6% NGL, 3% oil) | Gulfport Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.1 million cash, $280 million revolver borrowings, $650 million 2029 senior notes, $48.7 million letters of credit, 45.59% total debt/equity, ~$772.4 million liquidity at June 30, 2026 | Gulfport Energy Q2 2026 earnings release and Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | Repurchased about 392.2 thousand shares for $70.0 million in Q2 2026 and about 1.3 million shares for $242.8 million in H1 2026; $336.8 million remaining capacity | Gulfport Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 capital program and acreage outlook | Full-year base capex guidance about $430 million; discretionary acreage program targeting $140 million more through year-end 2026, with $40.3 million deployed in Q2 2026 | Gulfport Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 5.39x TTM PE, 1.60x book value, 20.05x levered FCF, and no dividend from financial_rigor.py | Pineify financial_rigor.py using Yahoo Finance inputs | August 4, 2026 |
| Profitability | 42.09% profit margin, 16.93% ROA, 33.99% ROE (financial_rigor.py ROE: 29.71%) | Yahoo Finance statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 52-week range $149.18 - $225.78, average volume 384,358, beta 0.41, 50-day moving average near $162.70, 200-day moving average near $189.31, RSI14 near 70 | Yahoo Finance statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| CFO transition | Michael Hodges, EVP and CFO, is resigning effective August 5, 2026 and will advise until September 1, 2026; a search firm is identifying a permanent successor | Gulfport Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO appointment | Domenic J. Dell'Osso, Jr. appointed President, CEO and Director in May 2026, formerly CEO of Expand Energy (formerly Chesapeake) until February 2026 | Gulfport Energy management team page | August 4, 2026 |
| Utica/Marcellus acreage | Approximately 262,000 net reservoir acres focused in the core of the Utica Shale and Marcellus | Gulfport Energy corporate website | August 4, 2026 |
| SCOOP acreage | Approximately 73,000 to 74,000 net reservoir acres in the Woodford and Springer formations | Gulfport Energy corporate website | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average one-year price target of $231.08 with a reported range near $190 to $265; Truist Securities maintained Hold and lowered its target to $190 on July 10, 2026; Argus held a Hold rating with a $146 target in late July 2026 | Yahoo Finance analysis and research reports | August 4, 2026 |
This GPOR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if natural gas prices, company fundamentals, market multiples, or macro conditions change.
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