CNX Resources Corporation research snapshot
CNX AI stock analysis currently reads CNX Resources as a low-cost Appalachian Basin natural gas producer whose financial results improved sharply through 2025 and the first half of 2026. The stock closed at $35.80 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $5.30 billion. TTM net income reached about $949 million after FY2025 delivered $633 million of net income versus a $90 million loss in FY2024, and management repurchased about $200 million of stock in Q2 2026 alone. The company pays no dividend and instead returns cash through buybacks while carrying roughly $2.22 billion of long-term debt and only about $6 million of unrestricted cash. Q1 2026 NYMEX natural gas spiked to an average of $5.04 per MMBtu before settling back to $2.90 in Q2, which flattered recent earnings. With zero buy ratings among recent covering analysts, a consensus Hold, and short interest near 10% of shares, the market is pricing commodity-cycle risk, a weak Appalachian basis, and an uncertain gas demand outlook. This CNX Resources AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$35.80 (July 31, 2026 NYSE close)
Market cap
$5.30 billion, based on 147.94 million shares outstanding as of July 15, 2026 at $35.80
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Hold: improved financials and buybacks offset by commodity-cycle risk, a weak Appalachian basis, and a very low cash balance
Trend status
Mixed to improving: price above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day, RSI near 65, and Barchart at 56% Sell after improving from 72% Sell a month ago
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CNX produces natural gas, NGLs, and oil from the Appalachian Basin, primarily the Marcellus and Utica shale formations, plus coalbed methane in Virginia. Its low-cost structure produced a fully burdened cash margin of $1.68 per Mcfe in Q2 2026, designed to generate cash even at moderate gas prices. | Medium-high |
| Moat | CNX benefits from low-cost Appalachian Basin reserves, a large undeveloped inventory, owned midstream assets, drilling expertise, and a differentiated New Tech methane abatement business. Commodity price-taking, a weak regional basis, and the absence of pricing power limit the moat. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Alan K. Shepard, in the role since January 1, 2026 after serving as president and CFO, leads a team focused on low-cost production, buybacks, and balance sheet discipline. In 2025 CNX repurchased 16.9 million shares for about $528 million, and the zero-dividend policy keeps all cash for buybacks, debt, and reinvestment. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $2.24 billion with net income of $633 million and diluted EPS of $3.98, versus a $90 million net loss in FY2024. TTM results strengthened further with about $2.14 billion of revenue, $949 million of net income, and positive free cash flow near $526 million, helped by the Q1 2026 gas price spike. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $35.80, the stock trades at about 5.7x trailing GAAP earnings, 11.5x forward earnings, 2.48x sales, 4.87x operating cash flow, and 1.10x book value. The cheap trailing multiple is flattered by one-off gas prices and unrealized derivative gains, so forward valuation is closer to fair. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close at $35.80 sat above the 50-day moving average of $33.65 but below the 200-day moving average of $36.75. Barchart rates CNX 56% Sell, improved from 72% Sell a month ago, with a Trend Seeker buy signal and RSI near 65. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because natural gas prices, the US supply-demand balance, the Appalachian basis, LNG export timing, hedge settlements, a roughly $2.22 billion debt load, and a very low cash balance can each move the stock significantly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is medium-high because market data and SEC filings are available. Forecast confidence is lower because commodity prices, the hedge roll, and the gas cycle dominate the earnings trajectory. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. Zero buy ratings among recent analysts, short interest near 10% of shares, and the zero-dividend policy reflect caution on the gas cycle. Certainty depends on natural gas prices and the company's ability to keep generating free cash flow and buybacks at lower gas prices. | Low-medium |
CNX AI stock forecast
The CNX Resources AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges from the July 31, 2026 close of $35.80. It is a scenario tool, not a price promise. The ranges change if natural gas prices, the Appalachian basis, production, costs, hedge settlements, or the market multiple change significantly.
$42 to $48
More likely if natural gas prices hold above $4 on LNG export growth, AI data center power demand, and constrained supply, CNX converts environmental attribute and 45Z credit sales into cash, buybacks continue, and the market re-rates the stock above book value.
$33 to $40
More likely if NYMEX gas stays in the $2.90 to $3.60 range, CNX keeps free cash flow near its 2026 guidance of about $525 million, buybacks continue, and the stock trades between roughly 1.0x and 1.2x book value.
$24 to $31
More likely if gas prices fall below $2.50, the 2026 hedge roll generates realized losses near the projected $155 million, free cash flow weakens, and the stock trades below book value as it has in prior weak gas cycles.
CNX AI technical analysis
CNX AI technical analysis uses the $35.80 July 31, 2026 close, StockAnalysis momentum data, and Barchart opinion data. The static page cannot fetch live chart data. Support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, and volatility must be rechecked in a current chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $35.80 | July 31, 2026 NYSE close per StockAnalysis and Barchart. |
| First support | $34.42 | Barchart lists first support at $34.42 below the last price of $35.80. |
| Second support | $33.05 | Barchart lists second support at $33.05. |
| Major support | $32.34 to $27.72 | Third support is $32.34 per Barchart, and the 52-week low of $27.72 is the cycle reference. |
| First resistance | $36.50 | Barchart lists first resistance at $36.50. |
| Second resistance | $37.21 | Barchart lists second resistance at $37.21. |
| Upper resistance | $38.58 | Third resistance is $38.58 per Barchart, near the July 2026 earnings pop high. |
| Moving averages | Above 50-day, below 200-day | StockAnalysis reports the 50-day moving average at $33.65 and the 200-day at $36.75. |
| Momentum | RSI 65.1, Barchart 56% Sell | RSI is 65.1 per StockAnalysis. Barchart rates CNX 56% Sell, improved from 72% Sell a month ago, with a Trend Seeker buy signal. |
| Volume | Average near 1.7 to 2.0 million shares | StockAnalysis reports 20-day average volume of about 1.74 million shares and Google Finance reports about 2.03 million. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.58 | Beta is 0.58 per StockAnalysis and 0.59 per Barchart. E&P stocks can still gap sharply on gas price news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $32.34 | A break below third support near $32.34, and especially below the 52-week low of $27.72, would invalidate the recovery thesis. |
CNX AI trading strategy
The CNX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a commodity-cycle E&P stock. It is not personalized advice. Position size, loss limits, and a fresh review of live price, natural gas futures, the hedge book, and quarterly earnings should come before any action.
Wait for CNX to clear resistance near $36.50 to $38.58 with firm natural gas futures, volume confirmation, and evidence that buybacks and free cash flow continue.
Exit or reassess if the breakout fails, price falls back below $34.42, or natural gas futures roll over.
If CNX tests the $32.34 to $34 area, compare the price with the gas forward strip, the 2026 and 2027 hedge book, maintenance capex, and net debt before treating it as a value entry.
Do not average down without a preset maximum loss. The stock can trade below book value for extended periods in weak gas markets, and the cash balance is very low.
Track Henry Hub futures, the Appalachian basis, CNX quarterly production, realized prices, cash margins, adjusted EBITDAX, maintenance capex, free cash flow, net debt, the hedge book, and 45Z and environmental attribute monetization.
Reduce confidence when gas prices decline below CNX all-in cash costs, when the hedge roll produces larger realized losses, or when management signals higher capital spending.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CNX for natural gas that powers heating, power generation, industrial processes, and petrochemicals. The company converts Appalachian Basin reserves, low-cost Marcellus and Utica operations, owned midstream assets, and methane abatement and 45Z credit programs into commodity-cycle cash flow. CNX pays no dividend and returns cash through share buybacks.
The moat rests on low-cost Marcellus and Utica reserves, a large undeveloped inventory, owned midstream assets, drilling and completions expertise, and a differentiated New Tech methane abatement business. It is moderate because natural gas is a commodity and CNX has no pricing power over Henry Hub or the Appalachian basis.
The thesis fails if natural gas prices stay low or fall further, the weak Appalachian basis persists, the 2026 hedge roll produces realized losses near the projected $155 million, free cash flow turns negative, environmental liabilities prove larger than expected, or the very low cash balance becomes a liquidity problem.
CEO Alan K. Shepard, in the role since January 1, 2026 after serving as president and CFO, leads a team focused on low-cost production, buybacks, and balance sheet discipline. The decisive test is whether capital allocation can sustain returns through the gas cycle while the company carries about $2.2 billion of debt and roughly $6 million of cash.
Natural gas demand benefits from LNG export growth, AI data center power demand, coal-to-gas switching, and industrial reshoring. The counterforces are a US supply glut, a weak Appalachian basis, renewable displacement, methane regulation, and carbon policy. Q1 2026 NYMEX gas averaged $5.04 per MMBtu before settling back to $2.90 in Q2 2026.
The $35.80 price equals about 5.7x trailing GAAP earnings, 11.5x forward earnings, and 1.1x book value. Trailing earnings include a Q1 gas price spike and unrealized derivative gains, so the margin of safety depends on the trajectory of gas prices and the hedge book. If gas stays range-bound, the multiple may be fair. If gas falls, the stock could trade below book value.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $35.80 close on July 31, 2026; market cap near $5.30 billion based on 147.94 million shares | StockAnalysis CNX overview and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 147.94 million shares as of July 15, 2026 | CNX Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $618.48 million revenue, $202.94 million net income, $1.32 diluted EPS, and 151.5 Bcfe production | CNX Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $2.24 billion revenue, $633 million net income, and $3.98 diluted EPS | CNX 2025 Form 10-K (SEC filing) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financial data | About $2.14 billion trailing revenue, $949 million trailing net income, and $6.31 trailing EPS | StockAnalysis CNX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDAX and net debt | $1,280 million adjusted EBITDAX TTM and $2,215 million net debt as of June 30, 2026 | CNX Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples | 5.67x trailing P/E, 11.46x forward P/E, 1.10x price/book, 2.48x price/sales, 4.87x price/operating cash flow, and 10.07x price/free cash flow | StockAnalysis CNX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Hold across 12 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $37.82; 0 buy, 5 hold, and 2 sell among the 7 analysts rating in the last three months | StockAnalysis and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical data | 52-week range $27.72 to $43.62, RSI 65.1, 50-day moving average $33.65, 200-day moving average $36.75, beta 0.58, and short interest of 15.16 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart CNX opinion | August 2, 2026 |
| Production, reserves, hedges, and guidance | FY2025 sales volumes of 629.0 Bcfe and proved developed reserves of 7.0 Tcfe as of December 31, 2025; 2026 guidance of 605 to 620 Bcfe, adjusted EBITDAX of $1,265 to $1,315 million, free cash flow near $525 million, and about 81% of natural gas hedged | CNX 2025 Form 10-K and Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell CNX. Forecasts are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, live market data, natural gas futures, and your own risk assessment. CNX Resources is a commodity-cycle stock with no dividend, about $2.2 billion of debt, and a very low cash balance, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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