GPGI, Inc. research snapshot
GPGI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads GPGI, Inc. (formerly CompoSecure, Inc.) as a permanent-capital multi-industry platform, managed by Resolute Holdings, that owns CompoSecure (premium metal payment cards and security) and Husky Technologies (injection molding equipment and aftermarket systems). The page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026, 11:42 AM EDT reading, the stock traded at $14.29, up $1.09 or 8.26% from the $13.20 prior close, within a $13.28 to $14.44 day range, carrying a market capitalization near $4.14 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $14.29 times 289.86 million shares outstanding. Because GPGI accounts for GPGI Holdings, the parent of CompoSecure and Husky, under the equity method, GAAP net sales were effectively zero in Q1 2026, so the comparable view is pro forma adjusted net sales of $421.2 million, up 3%, pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $82.1 million, down 16% at a 19.5% margin, and a GAAP net loss of $235.0 million. The main question is whether Husky order delays from oil and resin price volatility, tariffs, and the Middle East conflict reverse through the second half while CompoSecure keeps compounding. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$14.29 at the August 3, 2026, 11:42 AM EDT reading, up $1.09 or 8.26% from the $13.20 prior close, within a $13.28 to $14.44 day range after opening at $13.72
Market cap
$4.14 billion
AI score
46 / 100
Rating
Turnaround compounder with a demand shock at Husky
Trend status
Range bound near 52-week lows and below the 200-day moving average near $18.12, with high volatility
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GPGI is a permanent capital platform that owns CompoSecure, the global leader in premium metal payment cards, and Husky, a leader in injection molding equipment with about 13,500 installed systems, managed by Resolute Holdings. | Medium |
| Moat | CompoSecure has brand relationships with premium card issuers, metal card manufacturing expertise, and Arculus security capabilities. Husky has an installed base driving about 65% recurring revenue and a roughly 15% to 20% lower total cost of ownership for customers. | Medium |
| Management | Led by Executive Chairman Dave Cote and CIO Tom Knott with Resolute Operating System implementation, plus CompoSecure CEO Graham Robinson, CompoSecure CFO Mary Holt, Husky CEO Rob Domodossola, and Husky CFO Mohammad Kanaan, appointed May 28, 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 pro forma adjusted net sales of $421.2 million were up 3%, pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $82.1 million was down 16%, and GAAP net loss was $235.0 million, with Q1 adjusted free cash flow near $29 million. | Medium |
| Valuation | At about 14.08x forward earnings, 1.23x book value, and 1.92x forward sales, the market prices in a Husky recovery. JPMorgan rates the stock Neutral with a $15 target, while the StockAnalysis.com consensus of two analysts is Buy with a $20.00 average target. | Medium |
| Technical trend | GPGI traded at $14.29 on August 3, 2026 at 11:42 AM EDT, above the 5-day average near $13.80 and the 50-day near $13.85, but below the 20-day near $14.41, the 100-day near $14.87, and the 200-day near $18.12, with 14-day RSI near 51.23 on Barchart and near 46.11 on StockAnalysis.com. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are securities class actions filed in 2026 with a September 14, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline, Husky order delays from oil and resin price volatility and tariffs, high short interest at 23.51% of float, negative GAAP earnings, and a very low GAAP cash balance at the parent. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 press release, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because Husky demand, commodity costs, and litigation are uncertain. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. | Low |
GPGI AI stock forecast
The GPGI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $14.29 August 3, 2026 reading rather than a point target. The framework combines the FY2026 pro forma adjusted EBITDA guidance of $550 million to $610 million, a forward PE near 14x, and the three-scenario math that produced about $21.60 bullish, $13.80 base, and $8.30 bearish before dividends under 15%, 6%, and -5% earnings growth with 16x, 12x, and 9x exit multiples. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$18 to $22
More likely if Husky order delays reverse through the second half, oil and resin prices stabilize, deferred deliveries convert from the higher pipeline, CompoSecure keeps growing at a double-digit rate, and the market re-rates GPGI toward the $20 consensus target.
$12 to $15
More likely if Husky stays weak through 2026 with a gradual recovery, the company holds the $1.95 billion to $2.1 billion pro forma net sales guidance, the stock trades around current levels near the 20-day and 100-day moving averages, and investors wait for evidence of order conversion.
$8 to $11
More likely if Husky demand does not recover, oil and resin costs stay elevated, tariffs keep pushing out deliveries, securities class actions or other litigation develop badly, guidance is cut again, or the stock breaks below the $11.22 52-week low toward the lower scenario range.
GPGI AI technical analysis
GPGI AI technical analysis is neutral to weak as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $14.29 at 11:42 AM EDT, up 8.26% from the $13.20 close, above the 5-day and 50-day moving averages but below the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The stock is in the lower part of a $11.22 to $26.78 52-week range, with 14-day RSI near 51.23 on Barchart and near 46.11 on StockAnalysis.com, and 14-day historical volatility near 59.90%. Because the page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.29 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 11:42 AM EDT reading, up $1.09 or 8.26% from the $13.20 July 31 close within a $13.28 to $14.44 day range after opening at $13.72; the reported $4.14 billion market cap matches $14.29 times 289.86 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $13.28 to $13.85 | The August 3 intraday low of $13.28 and the 5-day moving average near $13.80, matching the 50-day moving average near $13.85 on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com, form a first support zone. |
| Secondary support | $11.22 | The 52-week low. A sustained close below this level would open the lower end of the bearish scenario range. |
| Near resistance | $14.41 to $14.87 | The 20-day moving average near $14.41 and the 100-day moving average near $14.87 on Barchart form the immediate overhead supply zone that capped the rebound. |
| Secondary resistance | $18.12 | The 200-day moving average near $18.12, still well above price, marks the level that would confirm a longer-term trend change if reclaimed. |
| 50-day moving average | $13.85 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $13.85 on August 3, 2026, matching StockAnalysis.com at $13.84, essentially at the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $18.12 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com reported the 200-day moving average near $18.12 on August 3, 2026, well above price, signaling the stock is still in a longer-term downtrend until it is reclaimed. |
| 100-day moving average | $14.87 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $14.87 on August 3, 2026, just above the current price and part of the near-term resistance zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46 to 51, ADX near 17.5 | 14-day RSI was near 51.23 on Barchart and near 46.11 on StockAnalysis.com, roughly neutral, and 14-day ADX near 17.51 on Barchart indicated a weak trend rather than a strong move. |
| Volume | About 1.29 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.30 million shares on August 3, 2026, with about 249,000 shares traded by the 11:42 AM reading, so breakout quality should be checked against live volume. |
| Volatility | Elevated at about 60% to 77% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 59.90% and 100-day near 77.38%, so position sizing should account for large swings around earnings and guidance news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $11.22 | A decisive close below the $11.22 52-week low would weaken the technical setup significantly and point toward the lower scenario range. |
GPGI AI trading strategy
The GPGI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a high-volatility turnaround. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Wait for GPGI to close above the $14.41 to $14.87 resistance zone on rising volume, ideally supported by evidence that Husky orders are recovering and Q2 results due August 6, 2026 come in near the higher end of guidance.
A failed breakout or a close back below the $13.85 area should invalidate the setup, and a close below $11.22 would be a clear stop condition.
If GPGI pulls back toward the $13.28 to $13.85 support zone without a thesis break, compare price action with Q2 results, Husky order data, and oil and resin price trends before acting.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss because litigation headlines and a 23.51% short interest can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track Husky orders and backlog conversion, oil and resin prices, tariff policy, CompoSecure program wins, pro forma adjusted net sales and EBITDA versus guidance, adjusted free cash flow, net leverage near 3x, and securities litigation updates including the September 14, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.
Reduce confidence if guidance is cut again, Husky demand does not recover, cash needs require equity issuance, or the equity method accounting makes reported results harder to interpret.
Investment research summary
GPGI is a permanent capital multi-industry platform that owns CompoSecure, the global leader in premium metal payment cards, and Husky, a leader in injection molding equipment and aftermarket systems, managed by Resolute Holdings for the long term.
CompoSecure has brand relationships with premium card issuers and manufacturing know-how in metal cards and Arculus security. Husky has an installed base of about 13,500 systems that drives roughly 65% recurring revenue and a 15% to 20% lower total cost of ownership for customers.
The thesis can fail if Husky order delays become permanent demand loss rather than deferrals, oil and resin costs stay high, tariffs keep pushing out deliveries, securities class actions or other litigation develop badly, cash needs force dilution, or CompoSecure growth slows after a strong run.
Executive Chairman Dave Cote and CIO Tom Knott lead the platform, with CompoSecure CEO Graham Robinson and CFO Mary Holt, Husky CEO Rob Domodossola, and Husky CFO Mohammad Kanaan, appointed in May 2026, running the operating businesses under the Resolute Operating System.
Premium metal payment cards are a growing niche in financial services with rising issuer adoption, while injection molding serves durable non-alcoholic beverage, food, and medical demand through the cycle, with plastic prices and tariffs adding short-term volatility.
At about 14x forward earnings, 1.23x book value, and 1.92x forward sales with negative GAAP earnings, valuation depends on a Husky recovery. Margin of safety is limited because the price already assumes the business stabilizes, and the consensus target of $20 sits well above the JPMorgan Neutral target of $15.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPGI price | $14.29 at the August 3, 2026, 11:42 AM EDT reading, up $1.09 or 8.26% from the $13.20 prior close, within a $13.28 to $14.44 day range, after opening at $13.72 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.14 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $14.29 x 289.86 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 289.86 million shares outstanding; 289,861,445 shares of Class A common stock as of May 7, 2026, per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 pro forma adjusted net sales | $421.2 million, up 3% year over year | GPGI Q1 2026 press release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 pro forma adjusted EBITDA | $82.1 million, down 16% year over year, with a pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5%, down 430 basis points | GPGI Q1 2026 press release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP results | GAAP net sales effectively $0 under equity method accounting, GAAP net loss of $235.0 million, and EPS of -$0.87 basic | GPGI Q1 2026 press release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| CompoSecure Q1 2026 results | Record pro forma net sales of $130.4 million, up 26% year over year, and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $47.6 million, up 37%, with margin up about 300 basis points to 36.5% | GPGI Q1 2026 earnings call and press release | May 7, 2026 |
| Husky Q1 2026 results | Pro forma adjusted net sales of $290.8 million, down 5% year over year, and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $38.2 million, down 40%, with margin down about 770 basis points to 13.2% | GPGI Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Husky orders and pipeline | Husky orders fell 16% year over year through the end of March as resin prices spiked, while the pipeline grew 4% in Q1 and 7% year over year through April; virgin PET prices rose about 46% in March and April | GPGI Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Husky deferred revenue detail | Over $20 million in Husky revenue was pushed out of Q1, including about $6 million in customer delivery delays, about $5 million in shipment and logistical delays tied to the Middle East conflict, and about $4 million in delays in customer payments | GPGI Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Husky installed base and mix | About 13,500 installed systems, roughly 35% of revenue from new system sales and 65% from recurring revenue, with the installed base globally diverse | GPGI Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance | Adjusted net sales of $425 million to $475 million and adjusted EBITDA of $105 million to $120 million, with pro forma adjusted EBITDA margins of 24.7% to 25.3% | GPGI Q1 2026 press release | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2026 revised guidance | Pro forma adjusted net sales of $1.95 billion to $2.1 billion, pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $550 million to $610 million, pro forma adjusted free cash flow of $275 million to $325 million, and about 3x year-end net leverage | GPGI Q1 2026 press release | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2025 CompoSecure results | Non-GAAP net sales of about $462 million, up about 10%, and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of about $171 million, up about 24%, with pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin near 36.9% | GPGI Q4 2025 earnings call | March 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 Husky results | Net sales of about $1.57 billion for full year 2025, up 5%, with Q4 2025 net sales of $521 million, up over 6% | GPGI Q4 2025 earnings call | March 12, 2026 |
| GPGI FY2025 GAAP results | GAAP net sales of $59.8 million and GAAP net loss of $136.0 million attributable to GPGI, reflecting the equity method accounting after the Resolute spin-off | GPGI FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE of 14.08, PB of 1.23, forward PS of 1.92, and PE ratio not meaningful on negative trailing GAAP earnings | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | TTM revenue of about $24,000 under equity method accounting, TTM net loss of $392.51 million, and EPS of -$2.57 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value | Equity of $3.12 billion and book value per share of $10.75, with total assets of $3,414.1 million as of March 31, 2026 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | GAAP cash of $6.5 million and no GAAP debt at the GPGI parent, while the adjusted consolidated view shows cash of $121.6 million, long-term debt of $2,138.3 million net of deferred financing costs, and $115.1 million of cash and restricted cash held at GPGI Holdings as of March 31, 2026 | GPGI Q1 2026 press release adjusted balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Equity method investment | Carrying value of the equity method investment in GPGI Holdings of $3,133.2 million as of March 31, 2026, with GPGI owning 100% of GPGI Holdings | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.0025 per share, about $0.01 annualized for a yield near 0.07%, declared February 3, 2026 and May 6, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of May 18, 2026 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Buyback activity | No shares repurchased in Q1 2026 under the program, which was increased from $40 million to up to $100 million in February 2025; 647,782 shares repurchased in 2025 at a cost of $12.2 million | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Reincorporation | Stockholders approved the reincorporation from Delaware to Nevada on June 4, 2026, and the conversion became effective on June 5, 2026 | GPGI Form 8-K filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Securities class actions | Securities class actions and investigations announced in 2026, including a Kaplan Fox notice with a lead plaintiff deadline of September 14, 2026, a Bernstein Liebhard class action alert, and RGRD and Grabar Law investigations | Newsfile and GlobeNewswire press releases | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Q2 2026 earnings call announced on July 23, 2026, with results expected on August 6, 2026 before market open | GPGI Q2 2026 earnings call announcement and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | Two analysts on StockAnalysis.com with a consensus of Buy and an average price target of $20.00, while JPMorgan lowered its target to $15 from $22 with a Neutral rating in May 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and JPMorgan rating action | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 33.75 million shares short, equal to 11.64% of shares outstanding and 23.51% of float, with a short ratio of 18.97 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $11.22 to $26.78, 52-week price change of -0.29%, and beta of 0.86 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $13.80, 20-day near $14.41, 50-day near $13.85, 100-day near $14.87, 200-day near $18.12, 14-day RSI near 51.23, 14-day ADX near 17.51, and 14-day historical volatility near 59.90% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Scores | Altman Z-Score of 5.29 and Piotroski F-Score of 3 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This GPGI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, legal developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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