Gentex Corporation research snapshot
GNTX AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Gentex Corporation as a high-quality, debt-free auto supplier whose mirror core is under cyclical and structural pressure, priced at a discount to its own history. The stock closed at $23.36 on July 31, 2026, down 13.6% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a market capitalization near $4.97 billion, re-verified during this refresh as $23.36 times 212.95 million shares outstanding. Q2 2026, released July 24, 2026, delivered a revenue miss of $651.3 million against about $669.6 million consensus, but a record Q2 gross margin of 37.0% and adjusted EPS of $0.58 versus $0.50 consensus, helped by roughly $18 million of IEEPA tariff reimbursements flowing to gross margin. The bear case centers on a 10% year-over-year drop in auto-dimming mirror unit shipments, a China business that management expects near $100 million for 2026 versus about $200 million in 2024, and European mirror weakness that includes lost Volkswagen programs. The bull case rests on full display mirror, driver and in-cabin monitoring systems, dimmable glass and visors, electronics contract manufacturing, and premium audio ramps that made non-automotive revenue about 14% of total in Q2. The analysis is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$23.36
Market cap
$4.97 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Quality debt-free auto supplier under cyclical and structural pressure
Trend status
Bearish short-term, trading below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Gentex is the dominant global supplier of auto-dimming mirrors and has expanded into full display mirrors, driver and in-cabin monitoring systems, connected car technology, dimmable glass and visors, fire protection, medical devices, and premium audio. Q2 2026 gross margin reached a record 37.0%, but about 86% of revenue is still automotive and exposed to the production cycle. | High |
| Moat | The core moat comes from a dominant mirror franchise, proprietary electrochromic technology, multi-year OEM program integration, and manufacturing scale. That moat is mature and faces structural pressure from camera-based mirror replacement, Chinese localization, and lost Volkswagen programs, while the next moat is being built through FDM, DMS and ICMS, dimmable glass, and electronics contract manufacturing. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Steve Downing, COO and CTO Neil Boehm, and CFO Kevin Nash run a conservative, founder-influenced culture. Evidence of discipline: no debt, $242.8 million net cash, a $0.48 annual dividend, year-to-date buybacks of 5.9 million shares for $137.6 million, a record Q2 2026 EPS of $0.54, and an on-track VOXX premium audio integration about 15 months after closing. | High |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $1.73 billion in 2021 to $2.53 billion in 2025 and about $2.63 billion TTM, with TTM net income near $401 million to $407 million and EPS near $1.88. TTM free cash flow was about $466 million, the balance sheet holds zero debt and $242.8 million net cash, and Q2 2026 free cash flow rose about 20% year over year to $161.7 million. | High |
| Valuation | At roughly 12.4x TTM earnings, 11.3x forward earnings, 10.7x free cash flow, and a 9.4% free cash flow yield, GNTX trades below its 5-year average PE of about 18x. The discount reflects mirror volume, China, and Europe concerns, and the market cap math of $23.36 x 212.95 million shares equals $4.97 billion. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | GNTX closed at $23.36 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $23.88, $24.46, and $23.54, with 14-day RSI near 43 and negative directional index above positive, a bearish short-term setup after the post-earnings downgrade. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are auto production cyclicality with 2026 global light vehicle production forecast down 3%, the China business sliding toward about $100 million in 2026 from about $200 million in 2024, European mirror volume weakness including lost Volkswagen programs, tariff disruption that currently leans on IEEPA reimbursements, and execution risk on new product ramps and the planned Morocco plant. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, market data, Q2 2026 results, and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, the earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because China, tariffs, and new product ramp timing are inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. This page provides a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. The risk-reward looks reasonable at the current discount, but the mirror core is under structural pressure and the new product story is still ramping. | Medium |
GNTX AI stock forecast
The GNTX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $23.36 and the 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.10. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $20, a base area near $29, and a bullish area near $45 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 2%, 5%, and 10% and exit multiples of 9x, 12x, and 16x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$34 to $48
More likely if full display mirror, DMS and ICMS, dimmable glass and visor ramps accelerate, the China decline stabilizes, mirror volumes flatten, and the market re-rates the stock toward a 16x multiple on high single-digit EPS growth.
$25 to $33
More likely if Gentex compounds adjusted EPS at a mid single-digit rate, the mirror franchise stabilizes around current volumes, buybacks continue, and the stock holds a 12x multiple near its recent range.
$16 to $22
More likely if China and Europe revenue declines accelerate, mirror content per vehicle falls faster as designs move to cameras, tariff disruption persists after IEEPA reimbursements fade, new product ramps disappoint, or the market assigns a 9x multiple on low-single-digit growth.
GNTX AI technical analysis
GNTX AI technical analysis is bearish short-term as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $23.36 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 43 and negative directional index above positive. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.36 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; after-hours $23.50. Market cap math uses 212.95 million shares. |
| Near resistance | $23.59 to $23.88 | The 5-day and 20-day moving averages form the first overhead zone; a reclaim would be the first positive short-term signal. |
| Key resistance | $24.46 | The 50-day moving average from Barchart. A close above this level would shift the short-term bias from bearish to neutral. |
| 52-week high | $29.38 | The upper bound of the 52-week trading range, well above the current price. |
| Near support | $23.00 to $23.20 | The recent trading low area near the July 31 day low of $23.11 is the first downside reference. |
| Secondary support | $22.50 to $23.00 | A zone just below the 200-day moving average of $23.54, where longer-term buyers may step in. |
| 52-week low | $20.48 | The lower bound of the 52-week range and the key level that defines whether the sideways pattern holds. |
| 50-day moving average | $24.46 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $24.46 on July 31, 2026, above the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $23.54 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $23.54, and the stock closed slightly below it. |
| 100-day moving average | $23.35 | The 100-day moving average near $23.35 sits almost exactly at the current price, so the medium-term trend is contested. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43, negative direction | 14-day RSI was near 43.03, weak but not oversold, and 14-day ADX near 24.68 with negative DI of 33.29 above positive DI of 20.71, a bearish directional bias. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.68 million shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.68 million shares, below the 52-week average, consistent with a slow drift rather than a panic. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical near 33.5% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 33.45%. Options implied volatility was not re-verified in this refresh and should be checked on a live options quote before sizing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $20.48 | A sustained close below the 52-week low of $20.48 would break the trading range. A close above the 50-day moving average near $24.46 would improve the short-term setup. |
GNTX AI trading strategy
The GNTX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It pairs filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and explicit invalidation levels, and it assumes fresh chart data is checked before any trade.
With the stock below its major moving averages, wait for a confirmed reversal: a reclaim of the 20-day moving average near $23.88 on above-average volume, then a close above the 50-day moving average near $24.46. Use the 200-day moving average near $23.54 and the 52-week low of $20.48 as trend invalidation references.
Do not chase the first bounce. Negative directional index still exceeds positive, so require a volume-confirmed close above $24.46 before treating the trend as turned.
If GNTX pulls back toward the $23.00 to $23.20 area or the $22.50 to $23.00 zone, look for price stabilization, drying volume, or bullish reversal candles before considering re-entry. The zero-debt balance sheet, $0.48 dividend, and buyback provide a fundamental floor under the range.
Do not assume a bounce just because the franchise is high quality. Mirror volume and China data can override support, and the 52-week low of $20.48 defines the stop context.
Track the August 27, 2026 Investor Day, Q3 2026 results expected in late October, China revenue trajectory, auto-dimming mirror unit volumes, new product launches across FDM, DMS and ICMS, dimmable glass and visors, the first electronics contract manufacturing award, and the Morocco plant timeline.
Lower confidence if mirror volume declines accelerate, China and Europe revenue keep falling, tariff disruption returns after IEEPA reimbursements fade, gross margin quality drops without mix offset, or new product revenue ramps slower than guidance implies.
Investment research summary
Gentex designs and manufactures automatic-dimming rearview mirrors, full display mirrors, driver and in-cabin monitoring systems, connected car technology, dimmable glass and visors, fire protection, medical devices, and premium audio. Customers pay because the electrochromic mirror is a regulated, program-embedded component with decades of OEM engineering lock-in, and the company is working to grow content per vehicle into vision, glass, and electronics.
The moat is built on dominant global auto-dimming mirror share, proprietary electrochromic technology, multi-year OEM program integration that raises switching costs, and manufacturing scale. The core moat is mature and under structural pressure, while the next moat is being built through full display mirrors, DMS and ICMS, dimmable glass, and electronics contract manufacturing.
The thesis fails if China revenue keeps sliding toward about $100 million in 2026 from about $200 million in 2024, European mirror volumes keep falling with lost Volkswagen programs, base mirror content per vehicle declines as designs move to cameras, tariff disruption resumes after IEEPA reimbursements fade, new product ramps scale slower or less profitably than planned, or the Morocco plant and electronics manufacturing build-out absorb more cash and management time than expected.
CEO Steve Downing and the leadership team, including COO and CTO Neil Boehm and CFO Kevin Nash, continue the conservative, founder-influenced culture. The record Q2 2026 gross margin of 37.0%, no-debt balance sheet, $137.6 million of year-to-date buybacks, $0.48 dividend, and disciplined VOXX integration are concrete evidence of capital allocation discipline.
The auto industry is in a transitional period, with the mid-July 2026 Mobility Global forecast calling for global light vehicle production down about 3% in 2026 and roughly flat in 2027. The shift toward more electronics, vision, and camera content per vehicle, plus regionalized manufacturing in Europe, plays to Gentex strengths even as base mirror volumes decline.
At roughly 12.4x TTM earnings, 11.3x forward earnings, 10.7x free cash flow, and a 9.4% free cash flow yield, GNTX trades below its 5-year average PE of about 18x. The zero-debt balance sheet with $242.8 million net cash provides downside protection, but the discount reflects real concerns about mirror volume, China, and Europe that new product revenue must overcome.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GNTX price | $23.36 at the July 31, 2026 close, $23.50 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.97 billion, verified as $23.36 x 212.95 million shares with 0.09% deviation | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 212,951,848 as of April 24, 2026 per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover; StockAnalysis.com reports 212.95 million | Gentex Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.63 billion, up 10.1% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials (S&P Global and Fiscal.ai) | July 24, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | Net income of $407.07 million and EPS of $1.89 on the financials page; $401.36 million and $1.88 on the statistics page; the page uses a range near $401 million to $407 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net sales of $651.3 million down 1% year over year, gross margin of 37.0% up 280 bps, income from operations of $141.3 million up 19%, net income attributable to Gentex of $114.7 million up 19%, diluted EPS of $0.54 up 26%, adjusted EPS of $0.58 | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 8-K | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 vs consensus | Adjusted EPS of $0.58 beat the $0.50 consensus; revenue of $651.3 million missed the about $669.6 million consensus | TheFly via StockAnalysis.com news feed | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | Automotive of $560.1 million down about 3%, Premium Audio of $51.7 million up about 16%, Other Products of $39.4 million up 12%; non-automotive about 14% of total | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings release | July 24, 2026 |
| Auto-dimming mirror units | 10.42 million units in Q2 2026, down 10% year over year; 21.27 million in the first half, down 8%; international interior mirrors down 26% in Q2 | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings release | July 24, 2026 |
| China revenue outlook | Revenue down about 20% in Q2 2026; management expects about $100 million for full year 2026 versus about $150 million in 2025 and about $200 million in 2024 | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 24, 2026 |
| 2026 annual guidance | Consolidated revenue of $2.65 billion to $2.75 billion, gross margin of 34.5% to 35.5% raised from 34% to 35%, operating expenses of $405 million to $415 million lowered, tax rate of 16% to 17%, capital expenditures of $115 million to $125 million lowered, depreciation and amortization of $100 million to $110 million; 2027 revenue reaffirmed at $2.80 billion to $2.90 billion | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 24, 2026 |
| Light vehicle production | 2026 global light vehicle production expected down about 3% to 75.49 million units, 2027 roughly flat at 75.25 million, based on the mid-July 2026 Mobility Global forecast | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings release | July 24, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $233.4 million, short-term investments of $9.4 million, long-term investments of $238.5 million, total assets of $3,017.8 million, total current liabilities of $423.5 million, no debt, and shareholders investment of $2,538.1 million | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | July 24, 2026 |
| Cash flow | Q2 operating cash flow of $180.9 million, Q2 free cash flow of $161.7 million up about 20% year over year, year-to-date free cash flow of $281.8 million up about 14% | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 24, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | 2.7 million shares repurchased in Q2 2026 for $66.0 million at an average of $24.48; year-to-date 5.9 million shares for $137.6 million at $23.13; about 29.9 million shares remaining | Gentex Q2 2026 earnings release | July 24, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.48 annual dividend paid at $0.12 per quarter, a 2.06% yield, with an ex-dividend date of July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend and statistics | July 24, 2026 |
| Valuation check | PE ratio of 12.41x, forward PE of 11.29x, P/FCF of 10.67x, PS of 1.89x, PB of 1.95x, EV/EBITDA of 9.32x, PEG of 0.76, and FCF yield of 9.37% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy across 9 analysts with an average target of $27.89, median of $26, low of $23, and high of $42; rating mix of 4 Strong Buy and 5 Hold as of July 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | 2026 revenue estimate of $2.67 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.10; 2027 revenue estimate of $2.81 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.22 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst moves | Freedom Capital Markets downgraded to Hold with the target cut from $32 to $23 on July 29, UBS maintained Hold at $25 on July 27, J.P. Morgan maintained Hold at $28 on July 10, B. Riley maintained Buy at $29 on July 1, and Baird raised to $26 from $25 on April 27 | StockAnalysis.com forecast analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 14.89 million shares short, 6.99% of shares outstanding, 5.25 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $23.59, 20-day SMA near $23.88, 50-day SMA near $24.46, 100-day SMA near $23.35, 200-day SMA near $23.54, 14-day RSI near 43.03, 14-day ADX near 24.68 with negative DI of 33.29 above positive DI of 20.71, 14-day historical volatility near 33.45% | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bearish near $20.08 (2% EPS growth, 9x exit), base near $29.17 (5%, 12x), bullish near $44.70 (10%, 16x), on the 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.10 over three years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This GNTX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, guidance changes, tariff policy shifts, or market moves.
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