FirstService Corporation research snapshot
FSV AI stock analysis currently reads FirstService Corporation as a high-quality North American property services platform with a defensive recurring management base, proven management, and franchise-backed brands. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $140.89 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $6.18 billion, and the stock traded near 38x GAAP trailing earnings and about 23x forward adjusted earnings. After a July 23, 2026 Q2 report that showed low-single-digit growth and more analyst price-target cuts, the main question is whether restoration recovery, roofing stabilization, and active buybacks can lift a stock that sits about 33% below its 52-week high. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$140.89
Market cap
$6.18 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality compounder, moderate growth, fair to full price
Trend status
Recovering off 52-week lows, below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FirstService provides essential and mostly recurring property services through FirstService Residential, the largest residential community manager in North America, and FirstService Brands, a portfolio of branded restoration, fire protection, roofing, and home service businesses. Recurring management revenue provides a stable base. | High |
| Moat | Moderate moat from multi-year property management contracts with high switching costs, local density, franchise brand recognition, and scale in procurement and insurance. Pricing power is limited in competitive roofing. | Moderate |
| Management | CEO Scott Patterson has been with the company since 1995 and CEO since 2015. Founder Jay Hennick chairs the board. Insider ownership is about 7%. Capital allocation is disciplined, with tuck-in acquisitions and an active share buyback. | High |
| Financial trend | Revenue growth slowed from about 20% in 2024 to roughly 4% to 5% in 2025 and 2026, while margins stayed stable and free cash flow stayed strong at about $335 million over the trailing twelve months. | High |
| Valuation | The stock trades near 38x GAAP trailing earnings and about 23x to 24x adjusted earnings. This is much lower than its 2023 to 2025 multiples but still not a clear bargain for a low-to-mid single digit grower. | Moderate |
| Technical trend | Price is slightly above the 50-day average near $140, below the 200-day average near $149, and about 33% below the 52-week high of $209.66. Momentum is neutral with RSI near 49. | Moderate |
| Risk level | Moderate. Key risks are a housing downturn already near decade lows, continued roofing organic declines, restoration revenue timing, acquisition integration, and a goodwill-heavy balance sheet with about $1.5 billion of goodwill. | Moderate |
| AI confidence | High confidence on filing-backed financials, market data, and analyst consensus. Lower confidence on the pace of restoration conversion and housing recovery. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to moderate. A proven compounder with strong management, but slower growth and a full adjusted valuation leave limited room for error. | Low to moderate |
FSV AI stock forecast
The FSV AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the July 31, 2026 close of $140.89. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. Sell-side price targets span $140 to $195 with a consensus Buy rating. The bullish case requires housing stabilization, a roofing recovery, and restoration projects that convert to revenue. The base case assumes the guided low-to-mid single digit growth with continued buybacks. The bearish case assumes housing and roofing weakness persist and the stock de-rates further.
$185 to $205
More likely if housing and consumer sentiment stop falling, roofing organic declines reverse, Century Fire Protection keeps growing above 10%, restoration large-loss projects convert into 2027 revenue, and margins expand as management guides.
$150 to $170
More likely if FirstService delivers guided revenue growth that is similar to or modestly better than year to date, adjusted EBITDA grows at a mid-single-digit rate, the share buyback continues, and valuation multiples hold near current levels.
$105 to $125
More likely if housing stays at decade lows, roofing organic declines continue, restoration revenue keeps getting delayed, margins compress, or the market de-rates FSV toward and below its 52-week low of $119.41.
FSV AI technical analysis
FSV AI technical analysis starts from the $140.89 close on July 31, 2026. The stock is below its 200-day moving average near $149 and above its 50-day average near $140, after falling about 33% from the 52-week high of $209.66. On July 23, 2026, the day of the Q2 earnings report, the stock fell 7.4% on volume of about 727,000 shares and printed an intraday low of $122.80. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $140.89 | Latest verified close used for this page, from July 31, 2026, the last trading day before the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $135 to $137 | A zone that held multiple times in June and late July. Buyers stepped in near $135.59 on June 24 and near $136.01 on June 25. |
| Key support | $122.80 | The intraday low on July 23, 2026 after the Q2 earnings report. A break below this level opens the path toward the 52-week low. |
| 52-week low | $119.41 | The lowest level of the past year. A close below it would be a strong bearish signal for the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $144 to $147 | Recent highs near $144.69 on July 30 and $146.79 on July 20. A close above this zone with volume would suggest momentum is building. |
| Secondary resistance | $149 to $152 | The 200-day moving average near $148.90 plus the July 16 to July 17 highs near $151 to $152. Clearing this area would mark a stronger trend shift. |
| 52-week high | $209.66 | The high of the past year, reached before the 2026 de-rating. Recovery to this level would require a large trend reversal. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $140.22, 200-day $148.90 | Price sits just above the 50-day average and below the 200-day average, a neutral to slightly weak longer-term position. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48.7, oscillators neutral | After the decline from $209.66 to below $123, momentum shows no strong trend signal in either direction. |
| Volume | Average volume near 188,000, earnings spike near 727,000 | The July 23 earnings-day volume spike shows that news events, not trend, currently drive price. A volume spike on a breakout would help confirm direction. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.90, near market average | FSV has historically been less volatile than the broader market. Position sizing should reflect typical daily ranges. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $135, then below $122.80 | A close below $135 weakens the recovery setup. A break below $122.80 targets the $119.41 low and would invalidate the medium-term support structure. |
FSV AI trading strategy
The FSV AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. FSV is a lower-beta name with below-average daily volume, so size positions and stops for the actual trading range.
Look for FSV to hold above the 50-day average near $140, then clear the $144 to $147 resistance and the 200-day average near $149 on rising volume before treating the trend as confirmed.
Avoid chasing a breakout that fails to close above $149. A daily close below $135 should reduce confidence in the recovery setup.
If FSV pulls back toward the $135 to $137 support zone without a thesis break, assess whether the guided mid-single-digit growth, the buyback, and the restoration pipeline still support an adjusted valuation near 23x forward earnings.
Do not average down on management quality alone. Set a maximum loss and confirm that estimates have not been cut again, as they were after the Q2 report.
Track the Q3 2026 earnings report expected in late October 2026, organic revenue growth by segment, roofing revenue, restoration large-loss conversion, Century Fire growth, buyback pace, and net debt to EBITDA near 1.8x.
Lower conviction if housing indicators keep falling, roofing organic declines continue, restoration conversion slips, or leverage approaches management comfort near 2.5x.
Investment research summary
FirstService manages residential communities through the largest community management platform in North America and provides essential property services through branded company-owned and franchise operations. Customers pay for recurring, hard-to-avoid services such as management, fire protection, restoration, painting, closets, and home inspection.
The moat rests on high switching costs in multi-year property management contracts, local density, franchise brand equity, and scale in procurement and insurance. It is a steady service moat, not a technology or network moat, and it stays intact through the housing cycle.
The thesis fails if the housing downturn deepens and home services demand stays near decade lows, roofing organic declines persist, restoration large-loss projects keep getting delayed, or leverage rises toward the 2.5x comfort level and acquisition integration disappoints.
Founder Jay Hennick and CEO Scott Patterson have built FirstService through disciplined acquisitions for decades. Insider ownership is about 7%. Recent capital allocation includes tuck-in acquisitions, a share buyback at about $135.91 average, and roughly 10 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Essential outsourced property services is a defensive, fragmented industry with a long consolidation runway, not a fast-growth paradigm shift. Restoration demand is supported by weather and climate events, while housing-linked brands face decade-low market conditions.
At about 38x GAAP trailing earnings, 23x to 24x adjusted earnings, 15x EV/EBITDA, and 18x price to free cash flow, the stock is cheaper than its 2023 to 2025 multiples but still not a clear bargain. Margin of safety depends on growth recovering toward the mid-single digits.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV price | $140.89 close on July 31, 2026 | stockanalysis.com FSV quote (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.18 billion, based on about 43.92 million shares outstanding | stockanalysis.com FSV statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $119.41 low to $209.66 high | stockanalysis.com FSV quote | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.50 billion, up 5.4% from $5.22 billion in FY2024 | FirstService 2025 audited annual financial statements | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings (attributable) | $145.0 million | FirstService 2025 audited annual financial statements | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $1.449 billion, up 2%; adjusted EBITDA $161.7 million, up 3%; adjusted EPS $1.75, up 2% | FirstService Q2 2026 press release, July 23, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $335 million for the twelve months to June 30, 2026 | stockanalysis.com FSV cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $0.2 billion cash and investments and about $1.56 billion total debt at June 30, 2026; net debt to EBITDA near 1.8x after buybacks | stockanalysis.com FSV balance sheet; FirstService Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | GAAP P/E 38.3x, forward P/E 23.6x, EV/EBITDA 15.0x, P/FCF 18.4x, dividend yield 0.87% | stockanalysis.com FSV statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Adjusted EPS | FY2025 adjusted EPS $5.75; 2026 consensus estimate $6.11; 2027 estimate $6.68 | FirstService annual report; S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating, average price target $173.88, range $140 to $195 across 10 analysts | S&P Global consensus via stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.22 per share annual, about 0.87% yield, roughly 10 consecutive years of increases | stockanalysis.com FSV dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
This FSV AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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