Fastly, Inc. research snapshot
FSLY AI stock analysis reads Fastly as an edge cloud platform company whose record Q1 2026 results beat estimates, with revenue up 19.8% year over year to $173.02 million, non-GAAP EPS of $0.13 versus $0.08 consensus, and gross margin expanding to 62.5%. The company still reports a GAAP net loss near $103 million on a trailing twelve-month basis and faces intense competition from Cloudflare, Akamai, and cloud hyperscalers. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the last close was $23.03 on August 3 with a verified market capitalization near $3.60 billion. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$23.03
Market cap
$3.60 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Improving profitability trend with record Q1 2026 revenue and raised guidance, offset by a demanding forward multiple
Trend status
Up 123% YTD, recovering from the May post-earnings selloff, ahead of the August 5 Q2 2026 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fastly provides edge cloud services including CDN, security, edge compute, and streaming solutions that help customers deliver fast, secure digital experiences. The platform has sticky developer-oriented products but competes in a crowded market. | Medium |
| Moat | Moat is limited. Fastly has developer loyalty, edge compute differentiation, and some switching costs from configuration and integration, but Cloudflare, Akamai, and cloud providers offer similar services with larger scale. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Kip Compton, appointed in June 2025, has focused on product velocity, security and compute growth, and margin expansion, delivering record Q1 2026 results with a beat on both revenue and EPS. Insider selling by the CEO and other insiders continued into July 2026 and is a monitoring flag. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew 14.8% in FY2025 to $624 million and 19.8% year over year in Q1 2026 to a record $173.02 million. The TTM GAAP net loss narrowed to about -$103 million, and the company generated positive trailing free cash flow near $59 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $23.03, FSLY trades at roughly 5.5x TTM revenue and about 70x forward non-GAAP earnings near $0.33 for FY2026. The forward multiple bakes in significant profit growth, leaving limited margin of safety if targets are missed. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a strong uptrend after bouncing from a $6.31 low, now trading near $23.03. It is up 123% YTD but sits well below the $34.82 52-week high, and momentum is likely extended after a sharp May correction and recovery. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include intense competition from Cloudflare and Akamai, GAAP unprofitability, customer concentration, high valuation execution risk, insider selling, and large earnings-day swings such as the ~36% drop after the Q1 report. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for verified financial data, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-medium |
FSLY AI stock forecast
The FSLY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $23.03 quote and FY2026 non-GAAP EPS estimates near $0.33. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $9, a base area near $21, and a bullish area near $30, depending on growth and multiple assumptions, with the analyst consensus target at $24.40.
$28 to $32
More likely if Fastly sustains 30%+ EPS growth through margin expansion and a shift toward higher-margin security and compute revenue, AI and agentic traffic keeps driving volume, and the market holds a premium multiple near 30-35x forward earnings toward the high analyst target near $32.
$18 to $24
More likely if Fastly compounds non-GAAP EPS around 20-25%, maintains positive free cash flow, makes steady progress toward GAAP profitability, and trades near 25-30x forward earnings, roughly in line with the current analyst consensus target near $24.40.
$7 to $11
More likely if competition intensifies from Cloudflare or hyperscaler CDN offerings, growth decelerates, GAAP profitability stays distant, customer concentration issues emerge, or the market reprices the stock closer to 15-20x forward earnings.
FSLY AI technical analysis
FSLY AI technical analysis is bullish-biased but extended as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock has rallied sharply from a $6.31 52-week low to near $23.03, driven by improving fundamentals and raised guidance, after a hard selloff in May when record Q1 results still drew growth concerns. Momentum is strong but the size of the move increases the risk of consolidation or pullback ahead of the August 5 Q2 2026 report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.03 | Last close on August 3, 2026, after closing at $22.66 on July 31. |
| Near support | $20 to $21 | The area around $20-21 represents potential pullback support after the extended rally from $6.31. |
| Key support | $18 area | A deeper support zone near $18, close to the low analyst target, would be a critical test of trend strength. |
| Near resistance | $24 to $25 | The analyst consensus target near $24.40 and round-number resistance near $25 form the immediate resistance zone. |
| Key resistance | $28 to $30 | The area near the early-May level around $28 is the next major resistance, with the $34.82 52-week high as the upper reference point. |
| Momentum | RSI likely elevated | After a 123% YTD gain and a 22% one-month move, momentum indicators are likely elevated, suggesting the stock may be overbought in the near term. |
| Volume | Average volume ~7.4 million shares | Trading volume is substantial, providing liquidity for position entry and exit. |
| Volatility | High, about 34% below the 52-week high | The stock trades about 34% below its $34.82 52-week high and has shown large daily swings, including a ~36% single-day drop after Q1 results. |
| Invalidation | Close below $18 | A decisive close below the $18 support area would weaken the uptrend thesis and suggest a deeper correction may be underway. |
FSLY AI trading strategy
The FSLY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a high-momentum edge cloud stock after a significant rally from lows. It is not personal advice and should be paired with current chart data, the August 5 Q2 2026 earnings report, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for FSLY to hold above the $20-21 support zone on pullbacks, then build a base before attempting to clear the $24-25 resistance area. A breakout above $25 on above-average volume would signal continued momentum toward the $28-30 zone.
A close below $18 or a weak Q2 2026 earnings print should invalidate the near-term uptrend setup. Do not chase extended rallies without defined entry criteria.
If FSLY pulls back sharply toward the $20-21 zone without a negative fundamental catalyst, compare price action with the August 5 Q2 2026 earnings results and updated guidance before assuming support will hold.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule. The stock is volatile and can gap sharply on competitive news, earnings results, or guidance changes.
Track quarterly revenue growth, non-GAAP and GAAP EPS trajectory, gross margin trends, free cash flow generation, customer additions, net revenue retention near 113%, security and compute mix, and competitive win-loss commentary.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth decelerates, GAAP profitability extends further, gross margin rolls over, or competitors announce significant capability advantages.
Investment research summary
Fastly helps developers and enterprises deliver fast, secure digital experiences at the edge of the internet. Customers pay because performance, security, and developer velocity matter for user retention and revenue, and building alternative infrastructure is expensive. Network services still drive about 75% of revenue, with security around 21% and other products the remainder.
Fastly differentiates on developer experience, programmability (Compute@Edge), instant purge, and high gross margins that expanded to 62.5% in Q1 2026. But competitive moat remains narrow. Cloudflare is larger and faster growing, Akamai has deeper enterprise relationships, and hyperscalers embed CDN into their cloud bundles.
The thesis fails if Cloudflare or hyperscalers continue to take CDN and edge compute share, if Fastly cannot convert free cash flow into consistent GAAP profitability, if customer concentration remains high, if growth decelerates after the Q1 acceleration, or if the ~70x forward multiple compresses without earnings delivery.
CEO Kip Compton, formerly Chief Product Officer and an ex-Cisco senior executive, has focused on product velocity, security and compute adoption, and margin expansion, delivering record Q1 2026 results and raised guidance. Key watch items are whether the trajectory is sustainable and whether continued insider selling signals anything beyond routine diversification.
Fastly sits at the intersection of edge computing, content delivery, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure. The company reports AI traffic growing 6.5x faster than human traffic in 2025, and partnerships around agentic AI security and verified identity (Skyfire, Experian Agent Trust) create new workloads. But the edge market is intensely competitive with well-capitalized rivals.
At roughly 70x forward non-GAAP earnings and 5.5x revenue, FSLY already prices in a successful turnaround. Margin of safety is thin: the stock needs sustained above-market growth and margin expansion to justify the current multiple. Value discovery improves if price pulls back while fundamentals remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSLY price | $23.03 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot (Aug 3, 2026 close) | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.60 billion, verified as $23.03 x 156.5 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | About $3.67 billion | Calculated from quote, debt, and cash data | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $652.57 million, up 17.7% | StockAnalysis financials | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $624.02 million, up 14.8% | StockAnalysis financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $173.02 million, up 19.8% (record Q1) | Fastly Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS | $0.13 versus $0.08 consensus | Fastly Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$103.05 million (GAAP loss) | StockAnalysis financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $58.91 million | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $330.49 million | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | $397.75 million | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | About 70x on FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 | StockAnalysis forecast consensus | August 4, 2026 |
| Price to sales ratio | 5.52x TTM | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $6.31 - $34.82 | StockAnalysis quote data | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $24.40 (range $18 to $32, 12 analysts) | StockAnalysis forecast consensus (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Employees | 1,140 | Yahoo Finance profile | August 4, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell FSLY stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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