Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
FND AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Floor & Decor as a well-managed specialty flooring retailer in the early stages of a housing-cycle recovery, now trading at $58.06 with a market capitalization near $6.18 billion, computed as $58.06 times 106.49 million shares outstanding and reported by StockAnalysis.com. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, beat expectations: total sales rose 3% to $1,250.3 million, comparable store sales improved to a 2.1% decline from a 3.7% decline in Q1, sales to pros grew about 4% and reached roughly 55% of sales, and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.89 including a $0.31 net benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, while adjusted diluted EPS of $0.58 was flat year over year. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to sales of $4,770 million to $4,990 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $1.88 to $2.13, and adjusted EBITDA of $550 million to $585 million, and completed a refinancing that replaced a February 2027 term loan with a $200 million facility maturing June 2033 plus a new $800 million ABL facility maturing June 2031. The stock bounced 4.10% to $57.57 on July 31 on volume of 6.1 million shares and re-opened near $59 on August 3, still about 37% below the 52-week high of $92.41 and down 26.5% over the trailing 52 weeks. The main headwinds are comparable store sales that are still negative, laminate and vinyl deflation that could extend into 2027, short interest near 14.77% of shares, and an existing home sales market running around 4 million annualized units. The page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$58.06 at the August 3, 2026 market open reading, up 0.85% from the $57.57 July 31 close, after opening at $59.31
Market cap
$6.18 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Improving cyclical flooring retailer with a Q2 beat, a raised full-year guide, and a stronger balance sheet, but still facing negative comps and a housing market stuck near 4 million annualized existing home sales
Trend status
Above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages after a post-earnings bounce, but still below the 200-day moving average near $59.20
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Floor & Decor is the largest U.S. specialty hard-surface flooring retailer, operating warehouse-format stores with a hard-surface-only assortment, design consultants, pro services, and an expanding commercial business through Spartan Surfaces. Q2 2026 total sales rose 3% to $1,250.3 million, and pros grew about 4% to roughly 55% of sales. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from warehouse format scale, direct global sourcing, a curated hard-surface-only assortment, professional installer relationships, and a store base that ended fiscal 2025 at 270 locations. The moat is not wide because end-customer switching costs are low and Home Depot and Lowe compete on convenience and opening price points in installation materials. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Bradley Paulsen has led the company since 2020 and runs the store expansion and pro and commercial initiatives, while CFO Bryan Langley executed the Q2 refinancing that extended debt maturities to 2031 and 2033 and began a $400 million buyback, repurchasing 1.3 million shares for $65.7 million in Q2 with $334.3 million remaining. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $4.71 billion, TTM net income is $232.17 million, and gross margin is near 45%. Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin was 43.7%, down 20 basis points, adjusted EBITDA rose 1.2% to $152.0 million, and first-half 2026 operating cash flow was $278.4 million versus $155.3 million a year earlier, a clear improvement. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.06, FND trades at 27.13x trailing EPS, 27.55x forward EPS, 1.30x sales, 2.47x book value, 29.00x free cash flow, and 14.31x EV/EBITDA. The P/FCF and EV/EBITDA multiples are moderate, but the earnings multiple is high for a retailer with negative comps, and the consensus price target of $58.59 is essentially flat to the price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages after bouncing 36% off the May 20 low of $42.64, but it remains below the 200-day moving average near $59.20, and the 14-day ADX near 12.5 signals a weak, non-trending move rather than a confirmed uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are a prolonged housing downturn with existing home sales near 4 million annualized units, negative comparable store sales, laminate and vinyl deflation that could extend into 2027, tariff policy changes, high short interest near 14.77% of shares, and a beta of 1.57 that makes the stock more volatile than the market. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because the price, market cap, financials, balance sheet, and Q2 results matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the earnings release, the Form 10-Q, and the earnings call. Return confidence is lower because housing recovery timing and laminate and vinyl pricing are inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FND looks like a better-managed cyclical retailer with improving momentum and a stronger balance sheet, but the stock is not a high-certainty entry until comps turn positive, the 200-day average is reclaimed with volume, and housing turnover inflects upward. | Medium-low |
FND AI stock forecast
The FND AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $58.06 August 3, 2026 market open reading and the raised FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $1.88 to $2.13, with consensus near $1.94. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $36, a base area near $57, and a bullish area near $74 before any dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of flat, 7%, and 14% and exit multiples of 15x, 24x, and 27x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$66 to $82
More likely if existing home sales recover toward 5 million annualized units, comparable store sales turn positive, laminate and vinyl pricing stabilizes, gross margin holds near 44%, pro and commercial growth accelerates, and the stock re-rates toward a mid-to-high 20s earnings multiple on adjusted EPS of about $2.75 to $3.00 in three years.
$50 to $62
More likely if housing stabilizes gradually, comps grind from negative to flat, the company hits the midpoint of its $1.88 to $2.13 adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow stays healthy, and the multiple holds near the current 24x to 27x forward level, keeping the stock near the consensus target of $58.59.
$32 to $40
More likely if existing home sales stay near 4 million, comps keep declining, laminate and vinyl deflation deepens and spreads, tariff benefits reverse, or the market compresses the multiple toward the mid-teens on flat or lower adjusted EPS, consistent with the low analyst target of $38 and the May 20 low of $42.64.
FND AI technical analysis
FND AI technical analysis reflects a stock in the early stages of a recovery as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $57.57 on July 31, up 4.10% on volume of 6.1 million shares after the Q2 2026 report, then re-opened near $59.31 on August 3 and traded back toward $57 to $58. It is above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages but still below the 200-day moving average near $59.20, and the 14-day ADX near 12.5 shows a weak, non-trending tape rather than a confirmed uptrend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.06 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026 market open; market cap math uses 106.49 million shares outstanding. |
| Immediate support | $55.50 to $57.60 | This zone combines the 5-day moving average near $56.75, the 20-day near $55.67 on Barchart, and the $57.57 July 31 close, a natural first pullback area. |
| Major support | $53 to $54 | The 50-day moving average is near $53.55 on StockAnalysis.com and $53.77 on Barchart. A daily close below this zone would weaken the recovery setup. |
| Deeper support | $50.50 to $52.30 | The 100-day moving average near $52.28 and the early-June consolidation area form the next floor before the 52-week low. |
| Near resistance | $59.20 to $60.30 | The 200-day moving average near $59.20, the round $60 level, and the July 2 high of $60.26 cap the immediate upside. |
| Major resistance | $65 to $68 | This zone represents the late-June to early-July supply area that preceded the July breakdown, before the path toward the 52-week high of $92.41. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $56.75, 20-day $55.67, 50-day $53.55 to $53.77, 100-day $52.28, 200-day $59.17 to $59.23 | The stock is above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day averages but below the 200-day, a mixed signal that often precedes a test of the trend line. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 56.7 to 58.4, 14-day ADX near 12.5 | RSI is neutral-to-positive and not overbought, but ADX near 12.5 signals a weak, choppy move rather than a strong trend, per Barchart and StockAnalysis.com. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.34M to 2.46M shares | The July 31 bounce printed about 6.1 million shares, well above the average, which supports the recovery but needs follow-through to confirm it. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.57, 14-day historical volatility near 41% | FND is more volatile than the market, so position sizing should account for sharp rallies and selloffs around earnings and housing data. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $53 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $53.50 would weaken the recovery; a close below $52 would negate it and open a retest of the $42.64 low. |
FND AI trading strategy
The FND AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects housing data, comparable store sales, margin progression, store growth, tariff policy, and technical invalidation levels, and should be paired with fresh chart data and defined position sizing.
Watch for FND to reclaim and hold the $59.20 to $60.30 zone (200-day average and round $60) with volume above the 2.4 million average, while existing home sales improve and the company reports positive or improving comparable store sales, especially in pro and installation materials.
A failed reclaim of $60 followed by a daily close below the 50-day moving average near $53.50 would signal the recovery is exhausted and likely invite a retest of the 100-day average near $52.28.
If FND retests the $53 to $56 zone without a deterioration in cash, the $200 million term loan or $800 million ABL covenants, or store and margin guidance, compare the entry with adjusted EPS guidance of $1.88 to $2.13, free cash flow near $211 million TTM, and book value near $23 per share.
Do not treat a pullback as a buying opportunity if comparable store sales keep declining, laminate and vinyl deflation deepens, tariffs create new headwinds, or management trims guidance, because the housing market is outside company control.
Track quarterly comparable store sales and the April, May, June, and Q3-to-date comp path, pro versus homeowner mix, gross margin, SG&A as a percentage of sales, store count and new store productivity, online sales penetration, free cash flow, buyback pace, short interest, and existing home sales data.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on the one-time IEEPA tariff refunds, buybacks, or cost cuts rather than positive comparable store sales and operating cash flow growth.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Floor & Decor because it offers the widest in-stock hard-surface flooring assortment at warehouse prices, with design consultants and pro services, and it is becoming a supply house for professional installers who now drive roughly 55% of sales.
The moat comes from warehouse format scale, direct global sourcing, a curated hard-surface-only assortment, pro installer relationships, a 270-store base at the end of fiscal 2025, and an expanding commercial platform through Spartan Surfaces. It is not wide because end-customer switching costs are low and larger home improvement chains can add flooring assortment.
The thesis fails if existing home sales stay near 4 million annualized units, comparable store sales keep declining, laminate and vinyl deflation runs through 2027 and spreads, the tariff refund benefit fades, big box retailers price aggressively in installation materials, or the store expansion class of 2026 underperforms.
CEO Bradley Paulsen and CFO Bryan Langley delivered a Q2 beat, raised full-year guidance to adjusted EPS of $1.88 to $2.13 and adjusted EBITDA of $550 million to $585 million, refinanced the credit facilities to 2031 and 2033, and began a $400 million buyback with $65.7 million repurchased in Q2.
Flooring demand tracks housing turnover, remodeling, and commercial construction. Long-term demand is supported by an aging housing stock and population growth, but the near-term industry signal is weak with existing home sales around 4 million annualized units, elevated mortgage rates pressure, and consumer caution on large discretionary projects.
At $58.06 and about 27x trailing and forward earnings with negative comps, FND is not obviously cheap. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back toward the $50 to $53 zone without balance sheet or guidance damage, or if comps turn positive and earnings estimates begin to rise.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FND price | $58.06 at the August 3, 2026 market open reading, up 0.85% from the $57.57 July 31 close, after opening at $59.31 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.18 billion, computed as $58.06 x 106.49 million shares outstanding and reported by StockAnalysis.com | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 106.49 million shares outstanding, up 0.01% year over year, with a float of 104.82 million | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total sales | $1,250.3 million, up 3% from $1,214.2 million in the prior year period | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 comparable store sales | Declined 2.1%, improved from a 3.7% decline in Q1, with April down 5.1%, May down 1.3%, and June down 0.3%; Q3-to-date declined 2.2% | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | GAAP diluted EPS of $0.89 including a $0.31 net benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds; adjusted diluted EPS of $0.58, flat year over year | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call and earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 gross margin | Adjusted gross margin of 43.7%, down 20 basis points year over year, within the expected range; FY2026 adjusted gross margin guidance of approximately 43.6% to 43.8% | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | Adjusted EBITDA of $152.0 million, up 1.2%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.2% versus 12.4% in the prior year period | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| SG&A in Q2 2026 | SG&A of 38.3% of sales, deleveraged 120 basis points from 37.1%, with about 110 basis points from one-time IEEPA tariff refund related expenses | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| IEEPA tariff refunds | $87 million in total IEEPA tariff refunds filed, $56 million one-time benefit in gross profit, $28 million reduction to inventory, about $6 million recognized in Q2, and a $45.2 million net pre-tax benefit contributing $32.9 million after tax or $0.31 to EPS | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 sales and comp guidance | Sales of $4,770 million to $4,990 million, up 1.8% to 6.5% from fiscal 2025, with the 53rd week contributing about $65 million; comparable store sales flat to down 4% | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 EPS guidance | Diluted EPS of approximately $2.20 to $2.45, adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $1.88 to $2.13, with the 53rd week contributing about $0.08 to adjusted EPS, implying a 52-week adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $2.05 | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 EBITDA and cash guidance | Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $550 million to $585 million, with the 53rd week contributing about $11 million; CapEx of approximately $240 million to $275 million; tax rate of approximately 23%; depreciation and amortization of approximately $250 million | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Credit facility refinancing | New $200 million term loan facility maturing June 2033, used to repay $197.1 million under the prior facility maturing February 2027, plus a new $800 million ABL facility maturing June 2031 | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 liquidity | $942.4 million of unrestricted liquidity, consisting of $320.6 million cash and cash equivalents and $621.8 million available under the ABL facility | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 cash flow | $278.4 million of cash provided by operating activities for the 26 weeks ended June 25, 2026, versus $155.3 million in the prior year period | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call and Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | 1.3 million shares repurchased for $65.7 million in Q2 under the $400 million authorization, with $334.3 million remaining | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Store count and expansion | 270 warehouse-format stores at the end of fiscal 2025, up 8% from 251 a year earlier, with 11 new stores opened in the first half of 2026 including 5 in Q2, and about 55% of planned 2026 locations already open | Floor & Decor Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 earnings calls | August 3, 2026 |
| Online and pro penetration | Online sales penetration of 20.3% of total sales in Q2, up from 18.6% in the prior year period, and sales to pros of roughly 55% of sales with pro sales up about 4% | Floor & Decor Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue of $4.71 billion and TTM net income of $232.17 million, with EPS of $2.14 | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | FY2025 revenue of $4.684 billion, up 5.12% from $4.456 billion, and net income of $208.65 million, up 1.35% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $320.61 million as of June 25, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (320614000) from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | Total debt of approximately $2.01 billion as of June 25, 2026, including about $193.8 million of long-term debt, $163 million of current lease obligations, and $1,654 million of long-term leases | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | $193.83 million of long-term debt as of June 25, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (193828000) from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value and equity | Shareholders equity of $2,496 million, book value per share of $23.35 on the statistics page or $23.03 computed from the balance sheet | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $505.01 million, capital expenditures of $293.61 million, and free cash flow of $211.40 million, with FCF per share of $1.99 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM valuation metrics | 27.13x trailing EPS, 27.55x forward EPS, 1.30x sales, 2.47x book value, 29.00x free cash flow, and 14.31x EV/EBITDA, with a PEG ratio of 4.40 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Margins and returns | TTM gross margin of 44.98%, operating margin of 5.18%, profit margin of 4.93%, ROE of 9.69%, and ROIC of 4.53% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $58.59 across 23 analysts, low $38 and high $75, median $59 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 6 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 13 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell out of 23 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | TD Cowen Hold $48 to $58 on August 3, Goldman Sachs Hold $58 to $53 on August 1, Telsey Advisory Buy $61 to $68 on July 31, Truist Buy on July 31, and UBS Hold $55 to $60 on July 31 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $4.84 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.94, and FY2027 revenue estimate of $5.11 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.18, with 3-year revenue growth forecast of 5.90% and EPS growth of 10.33% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 15.72 million shares short, 14.77% of shares outstanding, 15.00% of float, 6.05 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $42.64 to $92.41, down 26.51% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta of 1.57 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent price action | July 31 close of $57.57, up 4.10% on volume of 6,106,324 shares after the Q2 2026 report; the stock closed July 30 at $55.30 | StockAnalysis.com price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $56.75, 20-day SMA near $55.67, 50-day SMA near $53.55 to $53.77, 100-day SMA near $52.28, 200-day SMA near $59.17 to $59.23, 14-day RSI near 56.7 to 58.4, 14-day ADX near 12.5, 14-day historical volatility near 41% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Company profile | Founded 2000, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, IPO April 27, 2017, about 13,723 employees, CEO Bradley Paulsen, CFO Bryan Langley, Executive Chair Thomas V. Taylor Jr. | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 3, 2026 |
This FND AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, housing data, tariff policy changes, market moves, or macro conditions.
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