Bullish case
$85 to $100
More likely if housing market recovers, interest rates decline, same-store sales turn positive, margins expand to historical levels, and investors re-rate FND toward a mid-30s earnings multiple.
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
FND AI Stock Analysis
FND AI stock analysis currently reads Floor & Decor as a well-run specialty flooring retailer with a differentiated warehouse format, a large addressable market, and a long store expansion runway. The caution is cyclical: the housing downturn, high interest rates, and weak existing home sales have compressed same-store sales and margins. Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.15 billion and EPS came in at $0.37, below consensus estimates. The FND AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and depends on housing market recovery pace, store expansion execution, margin stabilization, and competitive positioning against Home Depot and Lowe.
Current price
$57.13
Market cap
$6.175 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Cyclical flooring retailer with solid store expansion potential but weak near-term housing tailwinds and thin margins
Trend status
Recovering from 52-week lows near $42.64 after a large decline from $92.40, but still well below long-term moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. Floor & Decor has been public since 2017 with SEC filings, earnings releases, analyst coverage, and third-party market data. Financial data is directly observable from filings and market sources.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting the store expansion narrative and the prior high-growth compounder track record while under-weighting the cyclical housing drag, weak free cash flow conversion, high debt-to-equity ratio, and competitive pressure from larger home improvement chains.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap, revenue, net income, EPS, shares outstanding, and valuation ratios because filings and market data sources are consistent. Medium-low for forward estimates because flooring demand is sensitive to housing turnover, interest rates, and consumer remodeling sentiment that are hard to predict.
- investment Certainty
- Low-Medium. The business model is proven and the store expansion opportunity is real, but investment certainty is lowered by cyclical housing headwinds, thin profit margins, and a stock that has fallen 61% from its all-time high with no clear catalyst for a sustained recovery.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Floor & Decor is a specialty hard-surface flooring retailer operating warehouse-format stores with a focus on professional installers, DIY homeowners, and commercial businesses. The model offers lower prices through direct sourcing and high inventory turns. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from warehouse format scale, direct global sourcing relationships, professional installer loyalty, and a curated hard-surface-only assortment that competitors like Home Depot and Lowe do not match in depth. But switching costs are low for end customers. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Bradley Paulsen has been in role since 2020, overseeing the store expansion from roughly 160 stores to over 230 stores. The management team has experience in retail and flooring. Capital allocation has focused on new store growth with modest buyback activity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $3.0 billion in FY2021 to $4.68 billion TTM, but net income margin compressed from roughly 7% to 4.27%. Q1 2026 same-store sales have been negative due to housing market weakness. Free cash flow is thin relative to earnings. | High |
| Valuation | At $57.13, FND trades at 31.05x TTM EPS, 25.71x forward EPS, 2.51x book value, 1.32x revenue, and 78.26x free cash flow per share. The P/FCF multiple is very demanding given low absolute FCF. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is recovering from a 52-week low of $42.64 but remains 38% below the 52-week high of $92.40 and 61% below the all-time high of $145.89. Short-term momentum is positive but the intermediate trend is still bearish. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are housing market downturn extending, interest rate sensitivity, same-store sales pressure, gross margin compression from competition, high debt-to-equity of 81.68%, low free cash flow, and insider selling. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because SEC filings, earnings releases, and market data are consistent. Return confidence is lower because the timing of housing recovery and margin inflection are inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FND looks like a quality retailer trading at a reasonable earnings multiple for a cyclical, but not a high-certainty entry point unless housing data inflects and margins stabilize upward. | Medium-low |
FND AI stock forecast
FND AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FND AI stock forecast uses the $57.13 price reference, TTM EPS of $1.84, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $39, a base area near $65, and a bullish area near $98 before any dividends. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
Base case
$58 to $72
More likely if housing market stabilizes gradually, store expansion continues, margins hold near current levels, and FND trades near a high-20s earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$35 to $43
More likely if housing downturn persists, same-store sales continue declining, gross margins compress further, or leverage creates balance sheet concerns that push the multiple toward a low-20s level.
FND AI technical analysis
FND AI Technical Analysis
FND AI technical analysis reflects a stock in the early stages of a recovery from deeply oversold levels as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close was $57.13 with a 52-week range of $42.64 to $92.40. The stock has rallied about 34% from the 52-week low near $42.64, but the intermediate and long-term trends remain bearish until it reclaims key moving averages.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $57.13 | July 10, 2026 closing price from Yahoo Finance market data. |
| Immediate support | $50 to $52 | This zone represents the prior consolidation area and the rising 50-day moving average estimate. |
| Major support | $42 to $44 | The 52-week low near $42.64 is the critical floor. A break below would signal a new leg down. |
| Near resistance | $60 to $62 | Round-number resistance near $60 and the pre-breakdown support level from early 2026. |
| Major resistance | $75 to $80 | This zone represents the 200-day moving average estimate and a prior trading range from late 2025. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $50, 200-day near $72 | The stock is above the estimated 50-day MA but below the 200-day MA, a mixed signal. |
| Momentum | RSI recovering from oversold levels | The recovery from $42.64 to $57.13 suggests momentum has improved from deeply oversold territory. |
| Volume | About 1.22 million shares on July 10 | Volume was below the 2.91 million average, suggesting the recent rally lacks strong conviction. |
| Volatility | High, beta 1.48 | FND is more volatile than the market, which means sharp rallies and selloffs are normal. |
| Invalidation | Close below $42 | A decisive break below the 52-week low would invalidate the recovery setup. |
FND AI trading strategy
FND AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FND AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects housing market data, same-store sales trends, margin progression, store growth, and technical invalidation levels.
Recovery trend-following setup
Watch for FND to reclaim and hold above the $60 to $62 resistance zone, ideally with above-average volume, while housing data (existing home sales, housing starts, mortgage rates) shows improvement and FND reports positive comparable store sales.
A failed reclaim of $60 followed by a reversal back below $50 would suggest the recovery is exhausted and the stock may retest the 52-week low.
Value mean-reversion setup
If FND retests the $44 to $48 area without deterioration in cash position, debt covenant risk, or store closure announcements, compare the entry price with the company's TTM EPS, book value, and replacement cost of the store base.
Do not treat a pullback as a buying opportunity if comparable store sales are still declining, gross margins are compressing, and management guidance is being lowered.
Fundamental monitor
Track quarterly comparable store sales, gross margin trend, store count growth, revenue per store, operating expense ratio, inventory turnover, debt levels, free cash flow, and insider trading patterns.
Position sizing should reflect that FND is a cyclical retailer, not a compounding machine, and that the housing market is outside the company control.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Floor & Decor because it offers the widest in-stock selection of hard-surface flooring at low warehouse prices, with design consultants and pro services that Home Depot and Lowe do not match in the specialty hard-surface category.
Moat
The moat comes from the warehouse format scale, direct global sourcing that bypasses distributors, a curated hard-surface-only assortment, professional installer relationships, and a growing store base. It is not wide because larger competitors can add flooring assortment and smaller specialty peers can compete on service.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if housing remains weak for years, same-store sales keep declining, private-label margin initiatives disappoint, debt becomes burdensome, or Home Depot and Lowe use their scale to aggressively compete on price and selection in hard-surface flooring.
Management
CEO Bradley Paulsen has led the company since 2020 through a period of rapid store expansion and through the post-pandemic housing downturn. The management team has deep retail and flooring industry experience. Capital allocation has prioritized new store growth over buybacks or dividends.
Industry trend
The flooring market is driven by housing turnover, remodeling activity, and commercial construction. Long-term demand is supported by an aging housing stock, population growth, and households trading up. The industry faces near-term headwinds from elevated interest rates, low existing home sales, and consumer caution.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $57.13 and 31x TTM EPS, FND is not obviously cheap given the cyclical headwinds and thin margins. Margin of safety improves if the stock retests $45 or below without balance sheet deterioration, or if housing data inflects positively and earnings estimates begin to rise.
Source-backed data
FND Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FND closing price | $57.13 on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance FND summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $6.175 billion reported, $6.175 billion calculated from $57.13 x 108.09 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 108.1 million shares | Derived from market cap / price reconciliation | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $4.68 billion revenue, $199.5 million net income TTM | Yahoo Finance FND financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 FY26 results | $1.15 billion revenue, $39.71 million net income, $0.37 diluted EPS | Yahoo Finance earnings summary and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $293.6 million cash, total debt/equity ratio of 81.68% | Yahoo Finance FND statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation metrics | 31.05x EPS, 2.51x book value, 78.26x free cash flow per share, 1.32x revenue | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | 25.71x forward P/E | Yahoo Finance FND statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $42.64 to $92.40, all-time high $145.89 | Yahoo Finance and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta and volatility | Beta of 1.48 (average of sources) | Yahoo Finance and TradingView statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average estimate near $50, 200-day moving average estimate near $72, volume 1.22M shares | Price history from Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This FND AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change.
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