Fluor Corporation research snapshot
FLR AI stock analysis reads Fluor Corporation as a global engineering and construction firm executing an asset-light turnaround. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $50.17 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $7.01 billion, and backlog stood at $25.7 billion with net cash near $2.6 billion. The main question is whether the guided second-half ramp in adjusted EBITDA, driven by award conversion across LNG, nuclear, power, and mission work, can deliver against the August 7, 2026 Q2 report and the broader energy capex cycle. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$50.17
Market cap
$7.01 billion
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Cyclical turnaround with improving backlog quality
Trend status
Consolidation above the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fluor is a global EPC and project management firm serving energy, chemicals, mining, life sciences, government, and infrastructure clients. It now runs an asset-light model after selling AMECO, Stork, the China fab yard, and most of its NuScale stake. | High |
| Moat | Scale qualification for multibillion-dollar projects, a 114-year track record, government security clearances, and specialized nuclear, LNG, and mission work create entry barriers. Pricing power in commercial EPC remains limited by competitive bidding. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jim Breuer and CFO John Regan run a disciplined capital allocation program, with about $1.4 billion of planned 2026 buybacks and a NuScale monetization at roughly 4.5x MOIC. Q1 2026 still included a $37 million mining charge and a $96 million LOGCAP ruling. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 GAAP net income was a $51 million loss with large one-time swings. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA fell to $60 million from $155 million a year earlier, but backlog of $25.7 billion, 82% reimbursable, and net cash near $2.6 billion are the strongest parts of the story. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $50.17, the trailing GAAP PE of about 22.8x is distorted by one-time items. Forward PE near 16x to 19.5x and EV around 8x mid-guidance adjusted EBITDA are reasonable but not cheap for a cyclical E&C. | Medium |
| Technical trend | FLR sits just above its 50-day moving average near $49.96 and its 200-day moving average near $47.10, with RSI near 49 after a pullback from the 52-week high of $57.00. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Project execution charges, the LOGCAP appeal, Middle East disruption, a slower Reko Diq project, and government contract concentration are the main downside paths. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for filing-backed balance sheet, backlog, market data, and analyst consensus. Lower confidence for project-level margin and charge forecasting. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. Fluor has improving fundamentals and a strong balance sheet, but GAAP earnings are lumpy and some recovery is already reflected in the multiple. | Medium-low |
FLR AI stock forecast
The FLR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $50.17 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires sustained conversion from the over $60 billion front-end pipeline, margin expansion in Energy and Mission, and the LNGC Phase 2 decision. The base case assumes the guided second-half EBITDA ramp largely delivers. The bearish case assumes new project or legal charges, Middle East disruption, or a weaker energy and mining capex cycle. Q2 2026 results on August 7, 2026 are the next major check point.
$72 to $86
More likely if Fluor converts large front-end awards such as LNGC Phase 2 and the Aramco program, expands segment margins toward the guided 5% to 6% Energy range, and the market assigns a 20x to 22x forward multiple on roughly $2.60 to $3.00 of adjusted EPS.
$47 to $58
More likely if adjusted EPS advances toward the $2.60 to $2.80 guidance, backlog holds near $25 billion, and the stock trades in a 17x to 20x forward range. The analyst consensus target of $52.44 sits inside this range.
$28 to $37
More likely if new project charges recur, the LOGCAP appeal is lost, Middle East disruption delays client capex, or the market compresses FLR toward a 12x to 14x multiple on flat earnings.
FLR AI technical analysis
FLR AI technical analysis starts from the $50.17 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 3, 2026 static page. Public technical data showed the stock above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after pulling back from the 52-week high near $57.00, with RSI around 49. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $50.17 | Close on July 31, 2026, the latest trading day before the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $47.10 to $49.96 | The 50-day moving average area near $49.96 and the 200-day moving average near $47.10 form the first support zone. |
| Secondary support | $43.00 to $45.00 | Below the moving-average cluster. A sustained break here would challenge the medium-term recovery structure. |
| Near resistance | $54.00 to $55.00 | The 2026 high near $54.42 and the recent swing high. A close above this opens a test of $57. |
| Major resistance | $57.00 | The 52-week high. A breakout above this level would be the strongest bullish confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | About $49.96 | FLR is trading just above the 50-day moving average, which is mildly constructive. |
| 200-day moving average | About $47.10 | FLR remains above the 200-day moving average, confirming the longer-term uptrend is intact. |
| Momentum | RSI near 49 | Neutral territory. Not overbought and not oversold, leaving room in both directions. |
| Volume | About 1.96 million shares average (20 days) | Short interest near 6.8% of float can amplify moves around news and earnings. |
| Volatility | Moderate, beta of 1.23 | Daily swings are wider than the broad market, so position sizes should account for the beta. |
| Invalidation | Close below $47.10, then $43 | A daily close below the 200-day moving average weakens the setup. A break below $43 would challenge the recovery thesis. |
FLR AI trading strategy
The FLR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed fundamentals, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. The August 7, 2026 Q2 report can reset technical levels quickly.
Look for FLR to hold above the 50-day moving average near $49.96 and close above the $54 to $55 zone with rising volume before treating momentum as confirmed. A breakout above $57 would be the strongest signal.
A failed breakout or a daily close below the 200-day moving average near $47.10 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If FLR pulls back toward the $47 to $45 support zone without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with awards, backlog, and margin data before acting.
Do not average down solely because the stock has been in a multi-year recovery. Define maximum loss and review the quarterly earnings trajectory first.
Track the August 7, 2026 Q2 results, new awards book-to-burn, LNGC Phase 2 and Aramco conversion, LOGCAP appeal, Middle East impact, and the roughly $1.4 billion buyback plan.
Lower conviction if new project charges appear, awards stall, Middle East disruption escalates, or the stock fails at resistance without improving fundamentals.
Investment research summary
Fluor sells large-scale engineering, procurement, construction, and project management to energy, chemicals, mining, life sciences, data center, and government clients who need complex facilities delivered safely and on schedule.
The moat comes from scale qualification for multibillion-dollar projects, a 114-year track record, government security clearances, specialized nuclear and LNG expertise, and long-term client relationships that produce repeat awards.
The thesis fails if project execution lapses produce new fixed-price charges, the LOGCAP appeal is lost, Middle East disruption slows client capex, or energy and mining cycles turn down. GAAP earnings remain inherently lumpy.
CEO Jim Breuer and CFO John Regan have shifted Fluor to an asset-light model, monetized NuScale at roughly 4.5x MOIC, and plan about $1.4 billion of 2026 buybacks. Execution discipline and legal outcomes remain watch items.
Fluor benefits from a multi-year capital spending upcycle in power generation, nuclear, LNG, critical minerals, and reshoring. AI-driven power demand and a front-end pipeline of over $60 billion of potential work support the medium-term outlook.
At roughly 16x to 19.5x forward earnings and around 8x mid-guidance EV to adjusted EBITDA, the stock prices in a recovery but not euphoria. Net cash near $2.6 billion covers about 37% of market cap, a genuine buffer.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLR price | $50.17 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis real-time quote (S&P Global) | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.01 billion, verified as $50.17 x 139.67M shares with 0.04% deviation | financial_rigor.py verify-market-cap and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 139.67 million, down 8.24% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $15.5 billion, cross-validated at 0.00% deviation | MacroTrends and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $3.66 billion revenue, $0.14 adjusted EPS, $60 million adjusted EBITDA | Fluor Q1 2026 earnings call (May 8, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $525M to $560M adjusted EBITDA, $2.60 to $2.80 adjusted EPS | Fluor Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog | $25.7 billion at March 31, 2026, 82% reimbursable | Fluor Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Net cash | $2.6 billion net cash at March 31, 2026 ($3.2B cash, $1.1B debt) | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 22.8x trailing PE, 16.0x forward PE, 2.47x book value | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA $49.96, 200-day MA $47.10, RSI 49.33, beta 1.23 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $52.44 across 9 analysts (Truist $64, Citi $56) | StockAnalysis forecast (S&P Global and TipRanks) | July 30, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | About $1.4B planned for 2026; 11 million shares repurchased in Q1 2026 | Fluor Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
This FLR AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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