AECOM research snapshot
ACM AI stock analysis currently reads AECOM as a scaled infrastructure consulting and program management business with better earnings quality than its pass-through revenue line suggests. The stock closed at $68.25 on July 10, 2026, implying a market value near $8.77 billion using 128.52 million shares. FY2025 revenue was $16.14 billion, net income attributable to AECOM was $561.8 million, adjusted EPS was $5.26, and free cash flow was $685 million. In Q2 FY2026, revenue rose 1% to $3.80 billion, adjusted EPS rose 27%, backlog reached a record $26.2 billion, and management raised adjusted EPS guidance to $5.90 to $6.10. The ACM AI stock forecast remains conditional because cash collection, government funding, fixed-price contracts, leverage, AI investment returns, and the shift toward higher-margin advisory work can all change the earnings path.
Current price
$68.25 at the July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$8.77 billion calculated from $68.25 and 128.52 million shares, compared with approximately $8.75 billion on the latest market statistics page
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-quality infrastructure consulting and program management franchise with record backlog and improving margins, balanced by competitive services, net debt, government funding, and execution risk
Trend status
Short-term rebound attempt with price above the 20-day and 50-day averages, but below the 100-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AECOM provides engineering, design, advisory, program management, and infrastructure services to governments, institutions, and companies. The mix is increasingly focused on professional services and higher-margin advisory work rather than self-perform construction. | High |
| Moat | Scale, technical credentials, public-sector relationships, complex project experience, and a record backlog support the moat. Still, many technical services have limited upfront barriers and the industry is fragmented, so reputation does not create permanent pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Troy Rudd, Lara Poloni, and Gaurav Kapoor have improved margins, reduced exposure to riskier construction activities, raised guidance, and returned capital through repurchases and dividends. The next test is converting backlog into cash while funding AI and advisory investments. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was effectively flat, but operating income rose 24%, net income attributable to AECOM rose 40%, adjusted EPS rose 16%, and free cash flow was $685 million. Q2 FY2026 showed record margins and backlog, while first-half free cash flow was affected by collections and claim timing. | High |
| Valuation | At $68.25, audited TTM metrics indicate 17.82x EPS, 3.85x book value, 21.95x free cash flow, a 4.56% FCF yield, and a 1.82% annualized dividend yield. The price is near the base scenario, so upside needs sustained EPS growth or multiple support. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock has stabilized near $68 after a sharp May decline. The price was above the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages but below the 100-day and 200-day averages on July 10, leaving a mixed short-term signal inside a weaker longer trend. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Material risks include government shutdowns or funding changes, fixed-price losses, delayed collections, backlog cancellations, net debt, interest rates, project claims, talent retention, cyber incidents, geopolitical exposure, and uncertain returns on AI investments. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported results and market structure. Forecast confidence is medium because a services company can show strong backlog while cash conversion and margin timing move unevenly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ACM is a credible quality and infrastructure spending compounder candidate, but it is not a risk-free compounder. Certainty depends on durable margin gains, collections, backlog realization, and disciplined capital allocation. | Medium |
ACM AI stock forecast
The ACM AI stock forecast uses $68.25, TTM EPS of $3.83, and an audited three-year earnings and multiple model. The model produced a bearish value near $36.10, a base value near $72.40, and a bullish value near $104.80. These are scenario outputs, not price promises. The model uses different assumptions from management guidance and does not account for future buybacks, dividends, working capital swings, or changes in net debt.
$95 to $110
More likely if organic net service revenue grows near the upper end of guidance, advisory mix expands, margins approach the 20% plus FY2028 exit target, collections normalize, free cash flow conversion stays above 100%, and the market supports an 18x earnings multiple.
$65 to $80
More likely if backlog converts steadily, organic growth stays near the middle of guidance, margin improvement continues gradually, net debt remains manageable, and the market values normalized earnings near 15x.
$32 to $42
More likely if government funding slows, fixed-price claims or cancellations rise, Middle East or other international collections weaken, talent costs pressure margins, AI investment fails to earn back, or the market rerates earnings toward 11x.
ACM AI technical analysis
ACM AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 12, 2026 cutoff, with the latest close on July 10. Investing.com showed a neutral RSI and positive short-term momentum readings, while its moving-average table showed price above the 20-day and 50-day averages but below the 100-day and 200-day averages. The short-term signal is therefore mixed rather than a clean trend reversal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $68.25 | July 10, 2026 close from Macrotrends price history and the Investing.com technical snapshot. |
| Immediate support | $67.55 to $67.95 | Classic pivot S3 through S1 on the July 10 Investing.com table, with recent July lows near $66.28 providing a wider support reference. |
| Deeper support | $66.28 to $66.86 | The July 8 intraday low and July 1 close form a recent downside zone if the pivot support fails. |
| Near resistance | $68.35 to $68.75 | Classic pivot R1 through R3 and the 100-day simple moving average near $68.75. |
| Higher resistance | $69.72 to $70.28 | The 200-day simple and exponential moving averages sit in this area and may define the next longer-term reclaim test. |
| Moving averages | 20-day SMA $67.98, 50-day SMA $68.01, 100-day SMA $68.75, 200-day SMA $69.72 | Investing.com values recorded July 10, 2026. The close was above the 20-day and 50-day averages but below the 100-day and 200-day averages. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) 53.13 neutral; MACD 0.09 buy; ADX 27.99 sell | The indicator mix suggests short-term recovery without a confirmed long-term trend change. |
| Volume and volatility | 1.57 million shares on July 9; ATR(14) 0.5696 | StockAnalysis reported July 9 volume of 1,566,398 shares. Investing.com classified the ATR reading as less volatile on July 10. |
| Invalidation | A decisive close below $66.28 | A break below the recent low would weaken the rebound setup and require a fresh review of earnings, collections, and market risk. |
ACM AI trading strategy
The ACM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with backlog conversion, net service revenue, margin, cash collection, net debt, government funding, contract claims, and the company’s AI investment program.
Wait for ACM to reclaim and hold above the $69.72 to $70.28 moving-average zone, then look for stronger volume, improving relative strength, and confirmation from backlog and margin updates before treating the move as a new uptrend.
A failed reclaim below $68, a close under $66.28, weaker guidance, or renewed collection delays should reduce trend-following confidence.
If ACM holds the $66.28 to $67.95 support area and fundamental data remains intact, compare a rebound thesis with the base scenario near $65 to $80 and with normalized free cash flow rather than buying solely because the price has fallen.
Avoid assuming that a low price is a margin of safety if fixed-price claims, backlog cancellations, leverage, or government funding are deteriorating.
Track net service revenue growth, design book-to-burn, backlog conversion, segment adjusted operating margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow conversion, net leverage, receivable days, contract claims, share repurchases, and AI investment returns.
Position sizing should reflect that a project and services business can show strong accounting earnings while collections or contract outcomes temporarily weaken cash flow.
Investment research summary
Clients pay AECOM for specialized human capital, engineering judgment, regulatory knowledge, project delivery, and program coordination in infrastructure. Revenue is split between public and private clients, while pass-through costs make net service revenue a better measure of operating progress than reported revenue alone.
AECOM benefits from global scale, recognized technical credentials, long project histories, public-sector relationships, and the ability to staff complex programs. The moat is practical rather than absolute because technical services remain competitive and many offerings do not require large upfront capital.
The thesis fails if backlog does not become profitable revenue, collections remain delayed, fixed-price contracts create losses, public funding is interrupted, key engineers leave, or AI spending raises costs without improving win rates and operating leverage.
Management has exited or reduced exposure to riskier self-perform construction, expanded advisory capabilities, improved margins, raised guidance, and returned more than $3.5 billion through repurchases and dividends since September 2020. The capital allocation question is whether buybacks and AI investment remain sensible alongside net debt.
Aging infrastructure, water resilience, transportation upgrades, defense and public facilities, energy transition, and data-center development support long-run demand for design and program management. The industry still faces funding cycles, political changes, talent shortages, inflation, and competition.
At $68.25, ACM is near the audited base scenario and trades at 17.82x TTM EPS. The lower multiple on management’s adjusted FY2026 guidance is not directly comparable to GAAP EPS, so the margin of safety depends on the quality of adjusted earnings, cash conversion, and the durability of future margin gains.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACM quote reference | $68.25 close on July 10, 2026 | Macrotrends price history and Investing.com technical data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $8.77 billion calculated from $68.25 x 128.52 million shares; market statistics showed approximately $8.75 billion | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 128.52 million current shares on StockAnalysis; AECOM reported 128.20 million issued and outstanding shares at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and AECOM Q2 FY2026 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $16.140 billion revenue and $561.8 million net income attributable to AECOM | AECOM FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted earnings and free cash flow | $5.26 adjusted diluted EPS and $685 million free cash flow, with $822 million operating cash flow | AECOM FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 operating update | $3.801 billion revenue, $1.59 adjusted diluted EPS, 16.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $26.204 billion total backlog | AECOM Q2 FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $5.90 to $6.10 adjusted EPS, $1.275 billion to $1.305 billion adjusted EBITDA, and approximately $400 million free cash flow | AECOM Q2 FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $1.034 billion cash, $2.748 billion total debt, and $1.713 billion net debt at March 31, 2026 | AECOM Q2 FY2026 10-Q and results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation cross-check | 17.82x TTM EPS, 3.85x book value, 21.95x free cash flow, 4.56% FCF yield, and 1.82% annualized dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py with StockAnalysis and AECOM balance-sheet data | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA $67.98, 50-day SMA $68.01, 100-day SMA $68.75, 200-day SMA $69.72, RSI(14) 53.13, and classic pivot 68.17 | Investing.com ACM technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
This ACM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if AECOM execution, funding, backlog realization, collections, contract claims, leverage, competition, regulation, AI investments, or market valuation changes.
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