AECOM research snapshot
ACM AI stock analysis reads AECOM as a scaled infrastructure consulting and program management business with record backlog and improving margins, but the shares have fallen sharply from their late 2025 high and the market is now pricing in cash collection, government funding, and execution risk. The stock closed at $72.39 on July 31, 2026, implying a market value near $9.30 billion using 128.52 million shares. FY2025 revenue was $16.14 billion, net income attributable to AECOM was $561.8 million, and adjusted EPS was $5.26. In Q2 FY2026, revenue rose 1% to $3.80 billion, GAAP diluted EPS rose 22% to $1.42, adjusted EPS rose 27% to $1.59, total backlog rose 8% to a record $26.2 billion, and management raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.90 to $6.10. Operating cash flow was only $4 million in the quarter because of delayed Middle East payments and slower claim resolution, with free cash flow of negative $27 million. The ACM AI stock forecast remains conditional because collections, government funding, fixed-price contracts, leverage, litigation, and AI investment returns can all change the earnings path. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$72.39 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$9.30 billion calculated from $72.39 and 128.52 million shares, matching the market statistics page
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Quality infrastructure consulting franchise with record backlog and twice-raised guidance, balanced by a large price drawdown, weak quarterly cash flow, net debt, government funding, and litigation exposure
Trend status
Short-term rebound with price above the 20-day and 50-day averages, but below the 100-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AECOM provides engineering, design, advisory, program management, and infrastructure services to governments, institutions, and companies. The mix is increasingly focused on professional services and higher-margin advisory work rather than self-perform construction. | High |
| Moat | Scale, technical credentials, public-sector relationships, complex project experience, and a record backlog support the moat. Still, many technical services have limited upfront barriers and the industry is fragmented, so reputation does not create permanent pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Troy Rudd, Lara Poloni, and Gaurav Kapoor have improved margins, reduced exposure to riskier construction activities, raised guidance twice in fiscal 2026, and returned more than $3.5 billion through repurchases and dividends since September 2020. The next test is converting backlog into cash while funding AI and advisory investments. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was effectively flat, but operating income rose 24%, net income attributable to AECOM rose 40%, adjusted EPS rose 16%, and free cash flow was about $685 million. Q2 FY2026 showed record margins and backlog with adjusted EPS up 27%, but operating cash flow of $4 million and free cash flow of negative $27 million exposed collection and claim timing risk. | High |
| Valuation | At $72.39, TTM metrics indicate 18.85x EPS, 4.09x book value, 22.69x free cash flow, a 4.41% FCF yield, and a 1.71% dividend yield. The stock is down about 47% from its 52-week high of $135.52 and trades near the base scenario, so upside needs sustained EPS growth or multiple support. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock rebounded from $66.28 in July to about $72.39, above the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages but below the 100-day and 200-day averages. That is a short-term recovery attempt inside a longer downtrend rather than a confirmed trend change. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Material risks include government shutdowns or funding changes, fixed-price losses, delayed collections and claims, backlog cancellations, net debt, interest rates, Middle East conflict and payment delays, talent retention, cyber incidents, litigation exposure, and uncertain returns on AI investments. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported results and market structure. Forecast confidence is medium because a services company can show strong backlog while cash conversion and margin timing move unevenly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ACM is a credible quality and infrastructure spending compounder candidate, but it is not a risk-free compounder. Certainty depends on durable margin gains, collections, backlog realization, litigation outcomes, and disciplined capital allocation. | Medium |
ACM AI stock forecast
The ACM AI stock forecast uses $72.39, TTM EPS of $3.84, and an audited three-year earnings and multiple model. The model produced a bearish value near $36.20, a base value near $72.60, and a bullish value near $105.10. These are scenario outputs, not price promises. The model uses different assumptions from management guidance and does not account for future buybacks, dividends, working capital swings, or changes in net debt.
$95 to $110
More likely if organic net service revenue grows near the upper end of guidance, advisory mix expands, margins approach the 20% plus FY2028 exit target, Middle East collections stay recovered, free cash flow conversion stays strong, and the market supports an 18x earnings multiple.
$65 to $80
More likely if backlog converts steadily, organic growth stays near the middle of guidance, margin improvement continues gradually, net leverage remains manageable, and the market values normalized earnings near 15x.
$32 to $42
More likely if government funding slows, fixed-price claims or cancellations rise, Middle East or other international collections weaken again, talent costs pressure margins, AI investment fails to earn back, litigation or regulatory issues escalate, or the market rerates earnings toward 11x.
ACM AI technical analysis
ACM AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 3, 2026 cutoff, with the latest close on July 31. Price action shows a rebound from the July 8 low near $66.28 toward the July 28 high near $75.46, with the stock settling at $72.39. Computed averages put price above the 20-day and 50-day lines but below the 100-day and 200-day lines, so the short-term signal is a recovery attempt inside a weaker longer trend. RSI is neutral, MACD is positive, and ATR suggests below-average volatility.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $72.39 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance price history. |
| Immediate support | $70.02 to $70.56 | The 50-day simple moving average near $70.02 and the July 24 close, with the July 31 intraday low near $71.26 as a near-term reference. |
| Deeper support | $67.50 to $68.50 | The July 20 to July 23 consolidation closes and the July 10 close near $68.25 form a downside zone if the first support fails. |
| Key support | $66.28 | The July 8, 2026 52-week low. A decisive close below it would break the rebound setup. |
| Near resistance | $74.44 to $75.46 | The July 28 close and the July 28 intraday high mark the ceiling of the current rebound. |
| Higher resistance | $76.90 to $92.03 | The 100-day simple moving average near $76.90 and the 200-day simple moving average near $92.03 define the next reclaim tests. |
| Moving averages | 20-day SMA $69.57, 50-day SMA $70.02, 100-day SMA $76.90, 200-day SMA $92.03 | Computed from Yahoo Finance daily closes through July 31, 2026. The close was above the 20-day and 50-day averages but below the 100-day and 200-day averages. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) near 57 to 61 neutral; MACD positive above signal | StockAnalysis reported RSI of 56.87, while RSI computed from daily closes was near 61. The mix suggests short-term recovery without a confirmed long-term trend change. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume near 1.54 million shares; ATR(14) near 1.16 | Average volume computed from Yahoo Finance through July 31, 2026. The ATR reading points to moderate volatility after the July decline. |
| Invalidation | A decisive close below $66.28 | A break below the 52-week low would weaken the rebound setup and require a fresh review of earnings, collections, litigation, and market risk. |
ACM AI trading strategy
The ACM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with backlog conversion, net service revenue, margin, cash collection, net debt, government funding, contract claims, Middle East payment timing, litigation, and the company AI investment program.
Wait for ACM to reclaim and hold above the $76.90 to $92.03 moving-average zone, then look for stronger volume, improving relative strength, and confirmation from backlog, margin, and cash flow updates before treating the move as a new uptrend.
A failed reclaim below $70, a close under $66.28, weaker guidance, or renewed collection delays should reduce trend-following confidence.
If ACM holds the $66.28 to $70.56 support area and fundamental data remains intact, compare a rebound thesis with the base scenario near $65 to $80 and with normalized free cash flow rather than buying solely because the price has fallen from its 2025 high.
Avoid assuming that a low price is a margin of safety if fixed-price claims, backlog cancellations, leverage, litigation, or government funding are deteriorating.
Track net service revenue growth, design book-to-burn, backlog conversion, segment adjusted operating margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow conversion, net leverage, receivable days, contract claims, Middle East collections, share repurchases, litigation updates, and AI investment returns.
Position sizing should reflect that a project and services business can show strong accounting earnings while collections or contract outcomes temporarily weaken cash flow, as the negative free cash flow in Q2 FY2026 demonstrated.
Investment research summary
Clients pay AECOM for specialized human capital, engineering judgment, regulatory knowledge, project delivery, and program coordination in infrastructure. Revenue is split between public and private clients, while pass-through costs make net service revenue a better measure of operating progress than reported revenue alone.
AECOM benefits from global scale, recognized technical credentials, long project histories, public-sector relationships, and the ability to staff complex programs. The moat is practical rather than absolute because technical services remain competitive and many offerings do not require large upfront capital.
The thesis fails if backlog does not become profitable revenue, collections remain delayed, fixed-price contracts create losses, public funding is interrupted, the Middle East conflict disrupts payments or work, key engineers leave, litigation or regulatory issues escalate, or AI spending raises costs without improving win rates and operating leverage.
Management has exited or reduced exposure to riskier self-perform construction, expanded advisory capabilities, improved margins, raised FY2026 guidance twice, and returned more than $3.5 billion through repurchases and dividends since September 2020. The capital allocation question is whether buybacks and AI investment remain sensible alongside net debt and uneven quarterly cash flow.
Aging infrastructure, water resilience, transportation upgrades, defense and public facilities, energy transition, and data-center development support long-run demand for design and program management. The industry still faces funding cycles, political changes, talent shortages, inflation, geopolitical conflict, and competition.
At $72.39, ACM is near the audited base scenario and trades at 18.85x TTM EPS, about 47% below its 52-week high. The lower multiple on management adjusted FY2026 guidance is not directly comparable to GAAP EPS, so the margin of safety depends on the quality of adjusted earnings, cash conversion, litigation outcomes, and the durability of future margin gains.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACM quote reference | $72.39 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $9.30 billion calculated from $72.39 x 128.52 million shares; market statistics showed $9.30 billion | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 128.52 million current shares on StockAnalysis; AECOM reported 128.20 million issued and outstanding shares at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and AECOM Q2 FY2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $16.140 billion revenue and $561.8 million net income attributable to AECOM | AECOM FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted earnings and free cash flow | $5.26 adjusted diluted EPS and about $685 million free cash flow, with $821.6 million operating cash flow | AECOM FY2025 results release and 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 operating update | $3.801 billion revenue, $1.42 GAAP diluted EPS, $1.59 adjusted diluted EPS, 16.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $26.204 billion total backlog | AECOM Q2 FY2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 cash flow and capital returns | $4 million operating cash flow, negative $27 million free cash flow, and $155 million returned to shareholders through repurchases and dividends | AECOM Q2 FY2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $5.90 to $6.10 adjusted EPS, $1.275 billion to $1.305 billion adjusted EBITDA, 6% to 8% organic net service revenue growth, and approximately $400 million free cash flow | AECOM Q2 FY2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $1.034 billion cash (including joint ventures), $2.748 billion total debt, and $1.713 billion net debt at March 31, 2026 | AECOM Q2 FY2026 10-Q and results release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM market statistics | $15.99 billion TTM revenue, $505.72 million TTM net income, $3.84 TTM EPS, 15.12x reported PE, 11.84x forward PE, and 1.71% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation cross-check | 18.85x TTM EPS, 4.09x book value, 22.69x free cash flow, 4.41% FCF yield, and 1.71% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py with StockAnalysis and AECOM balance-sheet data | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA $69.57, 50-day SMA $70.02, 100-day SMA $76.90, 200-day SMA $92.03, RSI near 57 to 61, and a 52-week range of $66.28 to $135.52 | Yahoo Finance price history and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 13 analysts with an average price target of $99.21, a low of $87, and a high of $110 | StockAnalysis forecast, S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
This ACM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026, and can be wrong if AECOM execution, funding, backlog realization, collections, contract claims, litigation, leverage, competition, regulation, AI investments, or market valuation changes.
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