First Financial Bankshares, Inc. research snapshot
FFIN AI stock analysis, refreshed at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, reads First Financial Bankshares as a well-managed Texas bank holding company with industry-leading net profit margins near 42%, an expanding tax-equivalent net interest margin of 3.90% in Q2 2026, a 2.50% dividend yield, and a renewed share repurchase plan of up to 7.2 million shares through July 31, 2027. FFIN closed at $35.14 on July 31, 2026, implying a market capitalization near $5.00 billion using 142.34 million shares. The caution is valuation: FFIN traded near 18.7x trailing EPS, about 2.5x book value, and roughly 3.0x tangible book value, which is a premium for a regional bank. The FFIN AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and depends on net interest margin trends, loan growth, deposit costs, credit quality, Texas economic conditions, the new David Bailey CEO leadership, and whether investors keep paying a premium multiple for a high-margin regional bank.
Current price
$35.14
Market cap
$5.00 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality Texas regional bank with industry-leading margins, expanding net interest margin, and a renewed buyback, but a premium valuation near 2.5x book value
Trend status
Mildly positive: trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $33.88 and $32.06, below the 52-week high of $38.12, with 14-day RSI near 55.5
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Financial Bankshares operates First Financial Bank, a Texas-based community and commercial bank offering loans, deposits, mortgage banking, trust, and wealth management services across about 79 locations, with First Financial Wealth Management at nine locations. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Texas market density, long-standing local relationships, conservative credit culture, low-cost deposit base, high customer retention, trust and wealth cross-sell with $12.23 billion in assets under management, and the difficulty of replicating a century-old Texas banking franchise. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO David Bailey, promoted in January 2026, leads a conservative franchise built over decades by F. Scott Dueser, who continues as Executive Chairman. The board renewed and increased the buyback to 7.2 million shares and raised the dividend 15.8% in April 2026, signaling confidence. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue through Q2 2026 was approximately $637 million and TTM net income was approximately $269 million, producing a net profit margin near 42%. Q2 2026 net income of $71.89 million, or $0.50 per share, beat the prior year quarter of $66.66 million, with the tax-equivalent net interest margin expanding to 3.90%. | High |
| Valuation | At $35.14, FFIN traded near 18.7x TTM EPS, about 2.5x book value and 3.0x tangible book value, 16.2x free cash flow, and a 2.50% dividend yield. The premium multiple reflects high margins but leaves limited margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | FFIN was trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $33.88 and $32.06 and above the 100-day moving average near $32.41, but below its 52-week high of $38.12. 14-day RSI near 55.5 and 14-day ADX near 23.6 point to a mild, developing uptrend rather than a strong breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are interest rate compression, deposit cost increases, loan growth slowdown, commercial real estate credit quality, Texas economic and municipal deposit concentration, acquisition integration, the CEO transition, and a valuation re-rating if earnings growth disappoints at a 2.5x book multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because SEC filings, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and StockAnalysis.com data agree on price, market cap, revenue, net income, EPS, book value, dividend, and valuation ratios. Return confidence is lower because interest rate cycles, loan demand, and credit trends are less forecastable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FFIN is a conservatively run Texas bank with high margins, low beta, and an expanding net interest margin, but not a high-certainty bargain near 2.5x book value and 18.7x earnings when interest rate and credit conditions remain uncertain. | Medium |
FFIN AI stock forecast
The FFIN AI stock forecast uses the $35.14 price reference, the $1.88 TTM EPS base, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $27, a base area near $39, and a bullish area near $52 before buybacks, dilution, or multiple changes beyond the stated assumptions. Analyst consensus from 5 firms is Hold with an average price target of $37.00. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$48 to $54
More likely if net interest margins keep expanding, loan growth accelerates, credit quality stays strong, Texas economic growth outperforms, wealth management fees keep rising, the buyback reduces share count, and investors maintain a premium near 22x forward earnings.
$36 to $41
More likely if EPS compounds around 5% annually, net interest income grows modestly, expenses stay controlled, and FFIN trades near 18x forward earnings, consistent with the analyst consensus target of $37.
$25 to $29
More likely if interest rate cuts compress net interest margin, deposit costs rise, loan growth stalls, credit quality weakens, the CEO transition disrupts execution, or investors re-rate FFIN toward 14x earnings or below the current premium to book value.
FFIN AI technical analysis
FFIN AI technical analysis is mildly positive as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $35.14 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $33.88, its 100-day average near $32.41, and its 200-day average near $32.06, but below its 52-week high of $38.12 set earlier in the period. Barchart and StockAnalysis.com showed 14-day RSI near 55.5, 14-day ADX near 23.6 with positive directional index above negative, and 20-day average volume near 797,000 shares, consistent with a moderate recovery rather than a strong trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $35.14 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; used for market cap and valuation math at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $34.75 to $35.00 | This zone aligns with the July 31 daily low near $34.75 and the 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $34.99 and $34.87. |
| 50-day support | $33.88 | The 50-day moving average reported by Barchart and StockAnalysis.com acts as the first meaningful pullback support. |
| Deeper support | $32.06 to $32.41 | The 100-day moving average near $32.41 and 200-day moving average near $32.06 form a key intermediate support zone. |
| Major support | $28.12 | The 52-week low near $28.12 marks a major structural floor for the recovery thesis. |
| Near resistance | $35.50 to $36.00 | This zone represents the upper end of the recent trading range and the next trend resistance above the current quote. |
| Major resistance | $38.12 | The 52-week high near $38.12 is the primary breakout level for a sustained uptrend. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $34.99, 20-day $34.87, 50-day $33.88, 100-day $32.41, 200-day $32.06 | The stock trades above all five averages, which supports the mildly positive technical read as of July 31, 2026. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 55.5, 14-day ADX near 23.6 | RSI in neutral territory and ADX above 20 with +DI above -DI indicate a mild developing uptrend, not yet overbought. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 797,000 shares | Breakouts or breakdowns on above-average volume carry more technical weight; short interest near 6.02% of shares outstanding can add fuel to squeezes or sell-offs. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $0.70 (2.0%), beta 0.83 | Low beta and roughly 20% to 25% historic volatility reflect the defensive nature of FFIN as a regional bank stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $32.06, then below $28.12 | A break of the 200-day average near $32.06 would weaken the recovery setup, while a new 52-week low below $28.12 would damage the longer trend. |
FFIN AI trading strategy
The FFIN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects net interest margin trends, loan growth, credit quality, dividend yield support, the renewed buyback, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for FFIN to hold the $34.75 to $35.00 zone and break above $36.00 on above-average volume, supported by stable or expanding net interest margin, disciplined expense control, steady or growing EPS, and evidence the buyback is reducing share count.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 50-day average near $33.88 should reduce setup confidence, especially if quarterly earnings show margin compression, weaker loan demand, or a jump in nonperforming assets from the 0.80% level reported at June 30, 2026.
The 2.50% dividend yield on the $0.88 annual dividend provides a baseline return for income-oriented investors, supported by 15 years of dividend growth and a payout ratio near 42%. Monitor the declared quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share for continued growth.
Do not treat the dividend as guaranteed if net interest income declines, loan loss provisions rise, or regulatory capital requirements tighten, and note that the yield is modest because the share price trades at a premium to book value.
The renewed share repurchase plan authorizes up to 7.2 million shares, about 5% of outstanding shares, through July 31, 2027. Track buyback pace in quarterly filings as a partial offset to the premium valuation.
A repurchase plan is an authorization, not a commitment; there is no minimum number of shares FFIN must buy. Confirm actual repurchases in the cash flow statement before treating the plan as support.
Track net interest income, tax-equivalent net interest margin (3.90% in Q2 2026), loan and deposit growth, nonperforming assets as a percentage of loans and foreclosed assets (0.80%), classified loans, loan loss provision, efficiency ratio (45.94%), wealth management assets under management ($12.23 billion), and Texas economic and oil-price conditions.
Position sizing should reflect that FFIN is a high-quality regional bank at a premium valuation near 2.5x book value, not a deep value or distressed recovery play.
Investment research summary
Customers bank with First Financial because it offers reliable commercial and consumer banking, mortgage lending, trust and wealth management, and local decision-making across Texas communities, supported by conservative underwriting and relationship-based service, with wealth management assets under management of $12.23 billion at June 30, 2026.
First Financial benefits from a century-old Texas franchise, a low-cost deposit base, long-tenured client relationships, a conservative credit culture with nonperforming assets at 0.80% of loans, trust and wealth cross-sell, and branch density in attractive Texas markets. The moat can narrow if digital-first banks and credit unions erode deposit share or if larger regional banks acquire Texas market share.
The thesis fails if net interest margin expansion stalls, if loan growth slows in a weaker Texas economy, if commercial real estate credit costs rise from the classified loan level of $283.10 million, if municipal deposit outflows continue, or if the premium valuation near 2.5x book value compresses as earnings growth normalizes toward the low single digits.
CEO David Bailey, promoted in January 2026, leads a franchise built over decades by F. Scott Dueser, who remains Executive Chairman. Management has maintained high margins, low charge-offs, a 15.8% dividend increase in April 2026, and a renewed buyback of up to 7.2 million shares. The key test is whether the new leadership team sustains the conservative culture after the long Dueser era.
FFIN operates in Texas banking and wealth management. Texas benefits from population and job growth, and the Q2 2026 tax-equivalent net interest margin of 3.90% improved from 3.81% a year earlier, but the industry still faces deposit competition, potential interest rate changes, regulatory costs, municipal deposit volatility, and the secular shift toward digital banking.
At $35.14, the market prices FFIN as a premium regional bank reflecting its high margins, expanding net interest margin, and consistent earnings, with book value near $14.00 per share and tangible book value near $11.72. Margin of safety improves only if the stock pulls back toward the 200-day moving average near $32 or toward a lower multiple to tangible book value without fundamental deterioration.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FFIN quote reference | $35.14 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market cap and share count | $5.00 billion market cap, 142.34 million shares | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| P/E ratio and EPS | 18.71x P/E, $1.88 TTM EPS, 16.63x forward P/E | StockAnalysis.com statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM revenue estimate | Approximately $637 million (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026) | StockAnalysis.com financials | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM net income estimate | Approximately $269 million (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026) | StockAnalysis.com financials and Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $71.89 million net income, $0.50 EPS, tax-equivalent net interest margin 3.90%, efficiency ratio 45.94% | First Financial Bankshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 16, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | $15.31 billion total assets, $8.35 billion loans, $2.00 billion shareholders equity, nonperforming assets 0.80% of loans and foreclosed assets | First Financial Bankshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 16, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $0.88 annual dividend, $0.22 quarterly, 2.50% yield, 15 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis.com dividend data | July 31, 2026 |
| Book value and P/B | Book value per share near $14.00, P/B near 2.5x, tangible book value per share $11.72, P/TBV near 3.0x | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics, SEC EDGAR XBRL | July 31, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.83 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $28.12 low to $38.12 high | StockAnalysis.com quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $33.88, 200-day MA $32.06, RSI 55.52, 20-day average volume 796,792 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Share repurchase plan | Renewed and increased to up to 7,200,000 shares, about 5% of shares outstanding, through July 31, 2027 | First Financial Bankshares press release | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average price target $37.00, range $33 to $39, 5 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | 18.69x PE, 2.52x PB, 16.19x P/FCF, 2.50% dividend yield, market cap deviation 0.04% | financial_rigor.py verify-market-cap and verify-valuation | August 3, 2026 |
This FFIN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff and may be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change. Verify current prices, filings, credit metrics, and your own risk tolerance before making any financial decision.
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