First BanCorp. research snapshot
FBP AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads First BanCorp. as a well-capitalized, high-ROE Puerto Rico bank holding company with a dominant island deposit franchise and growing US mainland and Virgin Islands operations. The stock traded at $29.06 on August 3, 2026 at 11:52 AM EDT, up 0.13 or 0.45% from the $28.93 July 31 close, with a market capitalization near $4.41 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $29.06 times 151.61 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 22, 2026, showed net income of $96.1 million or $0.62 per diluted share, up 24% from $0.50 a year earlier, with record adjusted pre-tax pre-provision income of $137.5 million up 11%, return on average assets of 2.02% marking the 18th consecutive quarter above 1.5%, net interest margin of 4.87%, and total loan originations of $1.7 billion up 21% year over year, while total loans rose $168.8 million to $13.3 billion and total deposits rose $273.7 million to $16.87 billion. Management sustained its 3% to 5% loan growth target for 2026, guided net interest margin to expand 3 to 5 basis points per quarter from the 4.80% base, kept the efficiency ratio on a path toward the low end of the 50% to 52% range, and returned 84% of earnings through $50 million in buybacks and $31 million in dividends while holding a CET1 ratio of 16.96%. The stock is just below the $29.40 52-week high and above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $27.83, $26.20, and $22.72, with 14-day RSI near 71 on Barchart and 71.29 on StockAnalysis.com, strong but overbought. The FBP AI stock forecast is positive in scenarios where Puerto Rico economic activity stays strong, NIM keeps expanding, commercial and mortgage loan growth holds, credit quality stays near current levels, and the market sustains a bank-sector multiple; the bear case centers on auto loan delinquency, a Florida C&I credit, government deposit volatility, the Epstein-related lawsuit first reported in June 2026, and geographic concentration in a single island economy. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$29.06 at the August 3, 2026, 11:52 AM EDT reading, up 0.13 or 0.45% from the $28.93 July 31 close, within a day range near $28.67 to $29.13
Market cap
$4.41 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Well-run high-ROE Puerto Rico franchise at a full valuation
Trend status
Uptrend above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, just below the $29.40 52-week high, with 14-day RSI near 71 signaling an overbought but trending move
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First BanCorp. earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits and making commercial, CRE, construction, consumer, auto finance, and mortgage loans in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and Florida. It operates through six segments: Mortgage Banking, Consumer (Retail) Banking, Commercial and Corporate Banking, Treasury and Investments, US Operations, and Virgin Islands Operations. Q2 2026 delivered net income of $96.1 million, a record $137.5 million adjusted pre-tax pre-provision income, a 2.02% return on average assets, a 19.49% return on average equity, and a 4.87% net interest margin. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from a dominant deposit franchise in Puerto Rico with $16.87 billion of deposits, relationship-based local lending, regulated banking licenses, and a branch network that competitors would find costly to replicate. However, geographic concentration in a single island economy means the moat is narrower than a diversified mainland regional bank, and government deposits of about $3.0 billion add flow risk. | Medium |
| Management | Aurelio Aleman has been CEO since 2014, with prior experience as CFO, and the team has navigated post-hurricane recovery, economic restructuring, and regulatory transitions. Said Ortiz joined as CFO and led the Q2 2026 call, with the team delivering record profitability, an 18th straight quarter above 1.5% ROA, a dividend raise to $0.20 per quarter, and consistent buybacks. Key-person risk exists but is lower than for founder-led peers given the institutional structure with 3,218 employees. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM net income of approximately $372.56 million on $954.21 million revenue, with a 39.04% profit margin, 19.49% ROE, and 1.95% ROA. Q2 2026 net income rose 24% year over year to $96.1 million on a 12 basis point NIM expansion to 4.87%, $1.7 billion of originations up 21%, and net charge-offs down to an annualized 0.49% of loans. | High |
| Valuation | At $29.06, financial_rigor.py calculates about 12.26x TTM EPS, 2.23x book value, 4.62x revenue, and a 2.75% dividend yield, while StockAnalysis.com reports 12.22x earnings, 2.22x book, 2.27x tangible book, 4.60x sales, and an 8.49% earnings yield. The valuation is full for a regional bank, even one with a 19% ROE, because the stock sits near its 52-week high with limited margin of safety. | High |
| Technical trend | FBP traded at $29.06 on August 3, 2026 at 11:52 AM EDT, just below the $29.40 52-week high, above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $27.83, $26.20, and $22.72, with 14-day RSI near 71 on Barchart and 71.29 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 53 on Barchart confirming a strong trend, and a beta of 0.81. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are geographic concentration in Puerto Rico, CRE and construction loan credit quality, a rising auto loan delinquency trend, a $14.8 million Florida C&I migration to nonaccrual, sensitivity to US interest rates, government deposit flows, the Epstein-related lawsuit first reported in June 2026, natural disaster exposure, and a stock trading near its 52-week high with an overbought RSI. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the Q2 2026 earnings call. Medium for the forecast because bank earnings depend on Puerto Rico economic conditions, interest rates, credit quality, federal policy, and market multiples, all of which carry meaningful uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise, deposit base, profitability, and capital ratios are strong, but the stock trades near a 52-week high at a full valuation, and geographic concentration in Puerto Rico plus rising auto delinquency and the Epstein-related lawsuit mean the risk profile is higher than a diversified mainland bank at a similar multiple. | Medium |
FBP AI stock forecast
The FBP AI stock forecast uses the $29.06 reference price and $2.37 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 12%, 6%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth with 14x, 11x, and 8x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $46, $31, and $16. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events. FY2026 consensus EPS is $2.40 and FY2027 consensus is $2.52, which support a base case of continued mid-single-digit growth.
$40 to $50
More likely if Puerto Rico economic growth accelerates, commercial and mortgage loan demand expands, net interest margin keeps expanding 3 to 5 basis points per quarter, credit quality stays near current levels, deposits remain sticky, and the market holds FBP at a premium multiple reflecting ROE above 19%.
$29 to $35
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit rate toward the $2.40 FY2026 consensus, NIM stays near 4.80% to 4.90%, deposits remain sticky, Puerto Rico economic activity stays supportive, credit losses stay contained, and the stock holds an 11x to 13x earnings multiple.
$14 to $20
More likely if Puerto Rico economic conditions deteriorate, auto or CRE loan losses rise materially, government deposit flows decline, net interest margin compresses from rapid rate changes, the Epstein-related lawsuit develops negatively, or the market reprices FBP near 8x reduced earnings.
FBP AI technical analysis
FBP AI technical analysis is bullish but extended as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis.com reported a 52-week range of $19.16 to $29.40, beta near 0.81, and 20-day average volume near 1.52 million shares. The $29.06 reading sits just below the $29.40 52-week high, so a breakout above that level is the key near-term technical question, with 14-day RSI near 71 signaling an overbought condition that usually accompanies strong trends near highs.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.06 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 11:52 AM EDT reading, up 0.13 or 0.45% from the $28.93 July 31 close within a day range near $28.67 to $29.13 after opening at $28.73; the reported $4.41 billion market cap matches $29.06 times 151.61 million shares. |
| Near support | $27.50 to $28.50 | This zone surrounds the rising 20-day moving average near $27.83 on Barchart and the $28.93 prior close, a natural first pullback support area. |
| Secondary support | $25.50 to $26.50 | This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $26.20 on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com and would represent a normal pullback within an uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $29.40 to $30.00 | StockAnalysis.com listed a 52-week high near $29.40. A breakout needs a close above that level on above-average volume to open the way toward a round-number extension near $30. |
| 20-day moving average | ~$27.83 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $27.83 on August 3, 2026, below the current price, confirming a positive intermediate bias. |
| 50-day moving average | ~$26.20 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 50-day moving average near $26.20, well below price, confirming the intermediate uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | ~$22.72 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 200-day moving average near $22.72, far below price, confirming a strong primary uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 71, ADX near 53 | 14-day RSI was near 71.29 on StockAnalysis.com and 71.02 on Barchart, which is overbought but common in strong trends, while Barchart 14-day ADX near 53.27 confirmed a trending move rather than a range. |
| Volume | About 1.5 million shares, average | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.53 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.52 million on August 3, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality above $29.40. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.81, with moderate bank-cycle volatility | The below-unity beta makes FBP a lower-volatility holding, though Puerto Rico-specific headlines, rate shifts, government deposit flows, and natural disaster risk can produce outsized moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $26.20, then $22.72 | A sustained break below the 50-day moving average near $26.20 would weaken the intermediate uptrend. A break below the 200-day near $22.72 would signal broader trend damage. |
FBP AI trading strategy
The FBP AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a Puerto Rico bank stock. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, Puerto Rico economic indicators, deposit and loan trends, net interest margin data, auto and CRE credit metrics, government deposit flows, capital ratios, the Epstein-related lawsuit, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for FBP to hold the $27.50 to $28.50 support zone and then close above $29.40 on stronger volume, with confirmation from steady Puerto Rico economic data, stable or expanding NIM, growing loan balances, and contained credit costs.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 20-day zone near $27.83 or a sharp deterioration in Puerto Rico economic indicators, a spike in auto delinquency, or a negative development in the Epstein-related lawsuit should invalidate the trend-following setup.
If FBP pulls back toward the $25.50 to $26.50 zone without deterioration in deposits, NIM, Puerto Rico economic data, or credit quality, compare the price weakness with the long-term earnings and franchise value case rather than the momentum case.
Do not assume Puerto Rico credit quality follows mainland patterns. Construction, CRE, and auto loans in a small island economy can have different recovery dynamics than diversified mainland portfolios, and the stock is expensive on a pullback if the multiple does not reset.
Track the $0.80 annual dividend (2.76% yield), the 33.72% payout ratio, CET1 ratio near 16.96%, deposit growth and mix including the $3.0 billion government book, loan portfolio composition, non-performing assets, net charge-offs, and the efficiency ratio near 48%.
Lower confidence if the payout ratio climbs above 40% of EPS, NPA levels rise for two consecutive quarters, auto delinquency keeps climbing, deposits become more rate-sensitive, government deposits fall materially, or CET1 drops below regulatory minimums.
Investment research summary
First BanCorp. earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and Florida, and making commercial, CRE, construction, consumer, auto finance, and mortgage loans. The customer pays for access to a dominant island-wide branch network, local lending relationships, and regulated banking services in markets where competition from large mainland banks is limited.
The moat comes from a dominant deposit market share in Puerto Rico, an extensive branch network built since 1948, relationship-based lending, and regulated banking licenses that create barriers to new entry. The advantage is limited by geographic concentration: the moat is strong within Puerto Rico but the entire franchise depends on the health of a single island economy, and about $3.0 billion of deposits are government-related.
The thesis fails if Puerto Rico economic growth stalls, federal fund flows (MJO, CDBG-DR, FEMA, tax incentives) decline, CRE and construction loan losses spike from a local downturn, auto finance lease losses keep rising, the Epstein-related lawsuit filed in June 2026 develops negatively, or the NIM compresses faster than expected from rapid rate changes. At about 2.3x tangible book value the stock is not distressed, so a credit or legal shock would hit both earnings and book value from a full valuation.
CEO Aurelio Aleman has led First BanCorp. since 2014, bringing prior CFO experience and deep knowledge of Puerto Rico banking. Said Ortiz joined as CFO and led the Q2 2026 call, and the team has delivered record pre-tax pre-provision income, an 18th straight quarter above 1.5% ROA, a dividend raise to $0.20 per quarter, $50 million of buybacks, and a CET1 ratio of 16.96%. The 3,218-employee organization suggests an institutional management structure with moderate key-person risk.
Banking in Puerto Rico operates in a different context than the mainland US. The market is smaller, more concentrated, and influenced by federal policy (MJO, CDBG-DR, FEMA, tax incentives for Act 22/60 residents). Q2 2026 commentary cited unemployment near 5.6%, ongoing construction activity, reshoring and manufacturing investment announcements, and a stabilizing auto market. First BanCorp. benefits from limited mainland-bank competition on the island while facing the risk that federal support and population trends drive the long-term outlook.
At about 12.26x TTM EPS and 2.23x book value with a 19% ROE, FBP is priced as a well-run regional bank with above-average profitability, and it now trades near its 52-week high with an overbought RSI. The margin of safety is thinner than it was in mid-July: a pullback toward the moving average levels would improve the entry, while the analyst consensus price target of about $31 implies only single-digit upside from the August 3 price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FBP price | $29.06 at the August 3, 2026, 11:52 AM EDT reading, up 0.13 or 0.45% from the $28.93 July 31 close, within a day range near $28.67 to $29.13 after opening at $28.73 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.41 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $29.06 times 151.61 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net income of $96.1 million or $0.62 per diluted share, up 24% from $0.50 a year earlier, record adjusted pre-tax pre-provision income of $137.5 million up 11%, ROA of 2.02% marking the 18th consecutive quarter above 1.5%, and ROE of 19.49% | First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Net interest income and margin | Net interest income of $229.1 million, net interest margin of 4.87% up 12 basis points from 4.75%, with the 4.80% base excluding the one-time fee acceleration from two refinancings, and guidance for 3 to 5 basis points of expansion per quarter for the rest of 2026 | First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| Loan growth | Total loans up $168.8 million to $13.3 billion, total loan originations of $1.7 billion up 21% year over year, loan growth guidance of 3% to 5% sustained for 2026 | First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| Deposits | Total deposits up $273.7 million to $16.87 billion, with government deposits up $167.7 million to $3.0 billion, brokered CDs up $87.7 million to $594.8 million, and core deposits up $18.3 million to $13.2 billion | First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Asset quality | Allowance for credit losses of $245.0 million at 1.85% of loans, net charge-offs of $16.1 million or an annualized 0.49% of average loans down from 0.65%, non-performing loans up $6.8 million to $94.6 million driven by a $14.8 million Florida C&I migration to nonaccrual, and early delinquency up $32.9 million to $143.4 million driven by a $20.7 million auto portfolio increase | First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Capital | CET1 ratio of 16.96%, total capital of 18.21%, tier 1 of 16.96%, and leverage of 11.72%, with a tangible common equity ratio of 10.08% and tangible book value per share of $12.68 | First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns | Returned 84% of earnings through $50 million in share buybacks and $31 million in declared dividends in Q2 2026 | First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Total assets of $19.24 billion, cash and cash equivalents of $561.3 million, gross loans of $13.03 billion, total deposits of $16.87 billion, $200 million of FHLB advances, and total common equity of $1.98 billion as of June 30, 2026 | First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | July 22, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $954.21 million, net income of $372.56 million, EPS of $2.37, operating cash flow of $461.43 million, and free cash flow of $446.71 million over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $914.86 million up 4.35%, net income of $344.87 million up 15.45%, and EPS of $2.20 for fiscal 2025 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| 5-year earnings trend | FY2021 EPS of $1.37, FY2022 EPS of $1.59, FY2023 EPS of $1.79, FY2024 EPS of $1.82, FY2025 EPS of $2.20, and TTM EPS of $2.37 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 151.61 million per StockAnalysis.com statistics; the Q2 2026 press release lists 152.67 million common shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and First BanCorp. Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE of 12.22, forward PE of 11.88, price to book of 2.22, price to tangible book of 2.27, price to sales of 4.60, price to free cash flow of 9.82, PEG of 1.53, earnings yield of 8.49%, and free cash flow yield of 10.18% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | financial_rigor.py computed about 12.26x TTM EPS, 2.23x book value, 4.62x sales, a 2.75% dividend yield, and an 8.16% earnings yield at $29.06, closely matching the StockAnalysis.com figures | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.80 (raised from $0.72) with a 2.76% yield, a 33.72% payout ratio, 11.43% one-year dividend growth, seven years of growth, and the next ex-dividend date on August 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $31.00, low $28 and high $33, across seven analysts, implying about 6.7% upside from the August 3 price | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Truist Buy at $31 on July 29, BofA Buy raised to $31 from $29 on July 28, Benchmark Buy raised to $33 from $31 on July 23, KBW Hold raised to $31 from $27 on July 23, and Wells Fargo Buy raised to $28 from $26 on July 6 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks news feed | July 29, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $1.09 billion with EPS of $2.40 and net income of $367.35 million, and FY2027 revenue of $1.13 billion with EPS of $2.52, with three-year EPS growth forecast near 9.41% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.90 million shares short, 4.55% of shares outstanding, 4.67% of float, and 4.40 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $19.16 to $29.40, up 43.16% over the trailing 52 weeks and up about 40% year to date, with a beta of 0.81 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $27.83, 50-day SMA near $26.20, 200-day SMA near $22.72, 14-day RSI near 71.29 on StockAnalysis.com and 71.02 on Barchart, 14-day ADX near 53.27, 14-day historical volatility near 23.43%, and 20-day average volume near 1.52 million shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| CEO | Aurelio Aleman-Bermudez, President and CEO since 2014 | StockAnalysis.com company profile | July 30, 2026 |
| Epstein-related lawsuit | In June 2026, First BanCorp. said it was aware of a lawsuit filed against it in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York alleging claims related to Jeffrey Epstein, and stated it categorically denies the claims; the company issued a public statement on June 26, 2026 | First BanCorp. lawsuit statement and TheFly via StockAnalysis.com news feed | June 26, 2026 |
This FBP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell First BanCorp. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, Puerto Rico economic conditions, loan losses, capital rules, valuation multiples, federal policy, natural disaster impacts, legal developments, or market sentiment change.
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