First BanCorp. research snapshot
FBP AI stock analysis currently reads First BanCorp. as a well-capitalized Puerto Rico-based bank holding company with a 75-year operating history, a dominant deposit franchise across the island, and growing US mainland and Virgin Islands operations. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, FBP closed at $26.42 with a market capitalization near $4.086 billion. The FBP AI stock forecast is positive in scenarios where Puerto Rico economic activity remains strong, net interest income stays supported by sticky deposits, credit quality holds, and commercial and mortgage lending volumes grow. The stock trades near its 52-week high with a 2.89% dividend yield, a 0.81 beta, and positive technical momentum. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$26.42
Market cap
$4.086 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Well-run Puerto Rico bank, low-beta value with good momentum
Trend status
Near 52-week high of $26.94, above all key moving averages, with a beta of 0.81 and positive YTD return of about 27%
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First BanCorp. earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits and making commercial, CRE, consumer, and mortgage loans in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and Florida. It operates through six segments: Mortgage Banking, Consumer Retail, Commercial and Corporate, Treasury and Investments, US Operations, and Virgin Islands Operations. The business has a 75-year operating history and dominant Puerto Rico market position. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from a dominant deposit franchise in Puerto Rico, relationship-based local lending, regulated banking licenses, and a branch network that competitors would find costly to replicate. However, geographic concentration in a single island economy means the moat is narrower than a diversified mainland regional bank. | Medium |
| Management | Aurelio Aleman has been CEO since 2014, with prior experience as CFO. The management team has navigated post-hurricane recovery, economic restructuring, and regulatory transitions. Key-person risk exists but is lower than for founder-led peers given the institutional management structure with 3,218 employees. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM net income of approximately $356.6 million on $932.9 million revenue, with a 38.22% profit margin and ROE near 19.03%. Revenue and earnings have shown steady improvement in recent years, supported by Puerto Rico economic recovery, strong deposit growth, and improved credit quality. | High |
| Valuation | At $26.42, financial_rigor.py calculates about 11.74x TTM EPS, 2.07x book value, 4.31x revenue, a 2.89% dividend yield, and a 8.52% earnings yield. The valuation is reasonable for a regional bank with a 19% ROE, a strong deposit franchise, and near-52-week-high price momentum. | High |
| Technical trend | FBP was above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages at the July 12 close, near $26.94 52-week high. The beta of 0.81 is below market. The stock has gained about 27% YTD, reflecting positive momentum driven by solid earnings, Puerto Rico economic activity, and improving credit trends. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are geographic concentration in Puerto Rico, CRE and construction loan credit quality, sensitivity to US interest rates, deposit competition, regulatory changes, natural disaster exposure, and the impact of potential changes to federal fund flows to Puerto Rico. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because bank earnings depend on Puerto Rico economic conditions, interest rates, credit quality, and federal policy, all of which carry meaningful uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise, deposit base, and recent financial performance are strong, but geographic concentration in Puerto Rico, CRE exposure, and dependence on a supportive rate environment mean the risk profile is higher than a diversified mainland bank trading at similar multiples. | Medium |
FBP AI stock forecast
The FBP AI stock forecast uses the $26.42 reference price and $2.25 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 12%, 6%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth with 14x, 11x, and 8x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $44, $30, and $15. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events.
$38 to $48
More likely if Puerto Rico economic growth accelerates, loan demand expands, net interest margin holds steady or expands, credit quality stays strong, deposit costs remain manageable, and the market values FBP at a premium book multiple reflecting its ROE above 18%.
$27 to $33
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit rate, NIM stays near current levels, deposits remain sticky, Puerto Rico economic activity stays supportive, CRE losses remain contained, and the stock trades at an 11-13x earnings multiple.
$13 to $18
More likely if Puerto Rico economic conditions deteriorate, CRE or construction loan losses rise materially, net interest margin compresses from rapid rate changes, federal fund flows to Puerto Rico decline, or the market reprices FBP near 8x reduced earnings.
FBP AI technical analysis
FBP AI technical analysis was constructive at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Yahoo Finance reported a 52-week range of $19.16 to $26.94, beta near 0.81, and average volume near 1.53 million shares. The $26.42 close was just below the 52-week high, so a breakout is the key near-term technical question.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $26.42 | Yahoo Finance closing quote for the trading session ending July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $24.50 to $25.50 | This zone surrounds prior resistance-turned-support and the likely location of the rising 50-day moving average. |
| Secondary support | $22.00 to $23.00 | This zone surrounds the estimated 200-day moving average and would represent a normal pullback in an uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $26.94 to $28.00 | Yahoo Finance listed a 52-week high near $26.94. A breakout needs a close above that level on above-average volume. |
| 50-day moving average | ~$25.00 estimated | Price is comfortably above the intermediate trend measure, supporting a positive near-term bias. |
| 200-day moving average | ~$22.50 estimated | Price is well above the long-term trend measure, confirming a positive primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI estimated near 65 | Momentum is positive and strong but approaching overbought territory near the 52-week high. A consolidation or pullback would be normal. |
| Volume | About 1.53 million shares, average | A breakout above $26.94 would be more convincing if weekly volume expands above the 1.53 million average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.81, with moderate bank-cycle volatility | The below-unity beta makes FBP a lower-volatility holding, though Puerto Rico-specific headlines, rate shifts, and natural disaster risk can produce outsized moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24.50, then $22.00 | A sustained break below the 50-day zone weakens the near-term momentum case. A break below the 200-day zone signals broader trend damage. |
FBP AI trading strategy
The FBP AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a Puerto Rico bank stock. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, Puerto Rico economic indicators, deposit and loan trends, net interest margin data, CRE and construction credit metrics, capital ratios, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for FBP to hold the $24.50 to $25.50 support zone and then close above $26.94 on stronger volume, with confirmation from steady Puerto Rico economic data, stable NIM, growing loan balances, and contained credit costs.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day zone or a sharp deterioration in Puerto Rico economic indicators should invalidate the trend-following setup.
If FBP pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day moving average zones without deterioration in deposits, NIM, Puerto Rico economic data, or credit quality, compare the price weakness with the long-term earnings and franchise value case.
Do not assume Puerto Rico credit quality follows mainland patterns. Construction and CRE loans in a small island economy can have different recovery dynamics than diversified mainland portfolios.
Track the $0.76 annual dividend (2.89% yield), payout ratio, CET1 ratio, deposit growth and mix, loan portfolio composition, non-performing assets, net charge-offs, and the efficiency ratio.
Lower confidence if the payout ratio exceeds 40% of EPS, NPA levels rise for two consecutive quarters, deposits become more rate-sensitive, or CET1 falls below regulatory minimums.
Investment research summary
First BanCorp. earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and Florida, and making commercial, CRE, construction, consumer, and mortgage loans. The customer pays for access to a dominant island-wide branch network, local lending relationships, and regulated banking services in markets where competition from large mainland banks is limited.
The moat comes from a dominant deposit market share in Puerto Rico, an extensive branch network built over 75 years, relationship-based lending, and regulated banking licenses that create barriers to new entry. The co-operative advantage is limited by geographic concentration: the moat is strong within Puerto Rico but the entire franchise depends on the health of a single island economy.
The thesis fails if Puerto Rico economic growth stalls, federal fund flows (MJO, CDBG-DR, tax incentives) decline, CRE and construction loan losses spike from a local downturn, natural disaster damages the loan portfolio, or the NIM compresses faster than expected from rapid rate changes. The 2.07x price-to-book is not distressed, so credit losses would hit both earnings and book value.
CEO Aurelio Aleman has led First BanCorp. since 2014, bringing prior CFO experience and deep knowledge of Puerto Rico banking. The management team has successfully navigated post-hurricane reconstruction, regulatory transitions, and the restructuring of the Puerto Rico economy. The 3,218-employee organization suggests an institutional management structure with moderate key-person risk.
Banking in Puerto Rico operates in a different context than the mainland US. The market is smaller, more concentrated, and influenced by federal policy (MJO, tax incentives for Act 22/60 residents, CDBG-DR disaster funds). The long-term trend depends on Puerto Rico population stability, economic diversification, and federal support. First BanCorp. benefits from limited mainland-bank competition on the island.
At about 11.74x TTM EPS and 2.07x book value with a 19% ROE, FBP is priced as a well-run regional bank with above-average profitability and near-term momentum. The margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back to the moving average levels while Puerto Rico credit, deposits, and economic trends remain healthy. At the July 12 price, the market is pricing continued strong performance without a Puerto Rico-specific credit event.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $26.42 | Yahoo Finance FBP quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.086 billion | Yahoo Finance summary data | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 154.6 million (calculated from $4.086B / $26.42) | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py cross-verification | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $2.25 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | 11.74x (calculated by financial_rigor.py) | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $932.9M revenue, $356.58M net income | Yahoo Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Price/Book (mrq) | 2.07x | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| ROE and ROA (ttm) | 19.03% ROE, 1.87% ROA | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.76 annual, 2.89% yield | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.81 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $19.16 to $26.94 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and profit margin | $550.9M total cash, 38.22% profit margin | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| CEO | Aurelio Aleman, CEO since 2014 | Yahoo Finance profile | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average target $26.83, range $25.00 to $32.00 | Yahoo Finance analyst insights | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 11.74x P/E, 2.07x P/B, 4.31x P/S, 8.52% earnings yield, 17.63% ROE using financial_rigor.py | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data | Estimated 50-day MA ~$25.00, 200-day MA ~$22.50, RSI near 65, beta 0.81, average volume 1.53 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This FBP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell First BanCorp. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, Puerto Rico economic conditions, loan losses, capital rules, valuation multiples, federal policy, natural disaster impacts, or market sentiment change.
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