FB Financial Corporation research snapshot
FBK AI stock analysis treats FB Financial as a Nashville-based regional bank operating as FirstBank across Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia, with banking and mortgage segments. The August 3, 2026 closing price was $61.10 with a verified market capitalization of about $3.05 billion. TTM revenue reached $650.78 million and TTM net income was $196.53 million, producing a 30.20% profit margin. FBK trades at about 15.95x TTM earnings, roughly 1.58x book value, and offers a 1.37% dividend yield. The primary upside catalyst is double-digit loan growth, stable net interest margin near 3.95%, and continued capital return, while the key risks are net interest margin sensitivity and rising nonperforming loans. This FBK AI stock analysis is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$61.10
Market cap
$3.05 billion verified market cap
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Growing southeastern regional bank with FirstBank franchise, strong Q2 2026 results, and momentum near 52-week highs
Trend status
Positive trend above both key moving averages with analyst support at a $66.09 consensus target
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FB Financial provides commercial and consumer banking, mortgage origination and securitization, and wealth management across Tennessee and neighboring southeastern states. Q2 2026 delivered $58.6 million of net income and strong double-digit loan growth, while the mortgage segment adds fee income but also creates earnings volatility. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from FirstBank brand recognition in Tennessee and the Southeast, local decision-making for commercial relationships, core deposit funding, and relationship-based cross-selling. The moat is moderate because the Southeast is competitive with large regional and super-regional banks present in every market. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Chris Holmes and the leadership team grew loans HFI to $12.87 billion in Q2 2026, up 30.3% year over year, while keeping net interest margin stable near 3.95% and improving the efficiency ratio to 52.3%. The bank repurchased 3.01% of common shares outstanding in the quarter and maintained a CET1 ratio of 11.0%. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $650.78 million and TTM net income was $196.53 million. Profit margin was 30.20%, ROE was 11.08%, and ROA was 1.30%. Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $1.13 beat the prior quarters $1.10, and the bank holds a strong capital position with $1.11 billion in cash. | High |
| Valuation | At $61.10, FBK trades at about 15.95x TTM EPS of $3.83, roughly 1.58x book value per share of $38.75, and a 1.37% dividend yield. The consensus analyst target of $66.09 suggests modest upside, but the current multiple is above the simple regional bank median. | Medium |
| Technical trend | FBK has rallied to $61.10 from the 52-week low of $46.95, trading near the top of its range with the 52-week high at $62.37. The stock is above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages around $55.90 and $55.50, giving a positive medium-term trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are net interest margin compression if the rate cycle turns, rising nonperforming loans which reached 1.17% of loans HFI in Q2 2026, mortgage banking earnings volatility, regional competition from larger banks, credit cycle normalization, trading liquidity constraints for the mid-cap size, and geographic concentration in the Southeast. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for verified financials and market data from the Q2 2026 earnings release and Yahoo Finance. Forward return confidence is medium because FBK depends on interest rate direction, southeast economic conditions, mortgage market volume, and regional bank sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FB Financial is a solidly run regional bank with southeastern growth exposure and strong Q2 2026 execution, but investment certainty is moderate because the stock now trades near its 52-week high with the valuation no longer cheap, and upside depends on NPL trends, margin trajectory, and loan growth holding. | Medium |
FBK AI stock forecast
The FBK AI stock forecast below is scenario-based and uses the August 3, 2026 reference price of $61.10, normalized forward EPS near $4.40 (based on Q2 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.14), and assumed growth and P/E ranges. It is a scenario tool, not a price target. Actual outcomes will depend on net interest margin, loan growth, credit costs, mortgage banking revenue, buyback pace, and the multiple the market applies to a mid-cap southeastern bank.
$66 to $74
More likely if FBK compounds forward EPS near 7-9%, NIM holds above 3.90% in a stable rate environment, loan growth stays near double digits, mortgage banking revenue stabilizes, credit remains low, buybacks continue, and the market applies a 14-15x forward multiple to a growth-bank profile.
$57 to $64
More likely if EPS compounds near 3-5%, NIM settles near 3.85-3.95%, loan growth tracks regional GDP, credit costs stay modest, buybacks continue, and the market values FBK at about 12-13x forward earnings.
$40 to $47
More likely if NIM compresses from rate cuts, nonperforming loans keep rising and credit costs normalize higher, mortgage banking volume declines, loan growth stalls from regional economic slowdown, and the market applies a 9-10x multiple to compressed earnings.
FBK AI technical analysis
FBK AI technical analysis uses the $61.10 close as of August 3, 2026. FBK has recovered from the 52-week low of $46.95 and sits within about 2% of the 52-week high of $62.37. The price is above the 50-day moving average near $55.90 and the 200-day moving average near $55.50, so the medium-term trend is positive but the stock is approaching overhead supply.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $61.10 | Close of trading on August 3, 2026. Intraday range was $60.31 to $61.48, with volume of about 334,000 shares for the session. |
| Near resistance | $61.62 to $62.37 | The 52-week high close of $61.62 from January 2026 and the intraday 52-week high of $62.37 cap the current range. A breakout above this zone would need strong earnings or an explicit NIM and loan growth catalyst. |
| Near support | $59.60 to $60.40 | This zone matches the late-July consolidation closes between $59.65 and $60.38. A hold above it keeps the short-term constructive setup intact. |
| Deeper support | $58.10 to $58.90 | This area represents the mid-July pullback low of $58.17 and prior closes near $58.90. It would become relevant if broader market weakness or a negative bank sector catalyst emerges. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $55.90, 200-day $55.50 | FBK trades above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a positive medium-term alignment. The 50-day average near $55.90 also acts as a strong pullback reference. |
| 52-week range | $46.95 to $62.37 | The stock has moved from the 52-week low to the upper part of its annual range, leaving limited room to the high and overhead supply ahead. |
| Momentum | Positive medium-term | FBK rose from $58.17 on July 23, 2026 to $61.10 by August 3, 2026. Momentum is positive and could accelerate on a break above $62.37 or stall into the next earnings report on October 13, 2026. |
| Volume | About 415,000 shares 21-day average | Recent sessions ranged from about 290,000 to 500,000 shares. A breakout above the 52-week high on clearly rising volume would strengthen the technical case. |
| Volatility | Moderate | FBK has a 5-year monthly beta of 0.95, roughly in line with the overall market. Earnings reports and rate decisions drive episodic volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $58.00 | A sustained break below the deeper support zone near $58.10 to $58.90 would reduce short-term trend confidence. A move back below the 50-day average near $55.90 would signal a more significant shift. |
FBK AI trading strategy
The FBK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Position sizing, execution timing, risk limits, and review of the latest earnings, NIM trajectory, NPL trends, and credit data should come before any action.
Look for FBK to break above $61.62 to $62.37 with increasing volume and earnings confirming NIM stability, continued loan growth, stable NPLs, clean net charge-offs, and a constructive mortgage banking outlook.
Exit or reassess if the breakout fails with a close below $60. Reduce if earnings guidance signals NIM compression, credit deterioration, a sharp rise in nonperforming loans, or weaker loan demand.
If FBK pulls back toward the $58 to $59 zone or the 50-day average near $55.90 while the rate outlook and Southeast economic conditions remain supportive, compare the lower price with tangible book value per share of $31.19, normalized EPS, dividend yield, and peer bank valuations.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if NIM is compressing, mortgage income is falling, nonperforming loans are climbing, credit costs are rising, or the stated earnings guidance is being reduced.
Track net interest income, NIM, loan and deposit growth, net charge-offs, the nonperforming loan ratio which rose to 1.17% of loans HFI, tangible book value per share, mortgage origination volume and gain-on-sale margins, CET1 ratio, and the dividend and buyback pace.
Size positions conservatively. FBK is a mid-cap regional bank with limited liquidity compared to large-cap peers, so exit plans should account for wider bid-ask spreads.
Investment research summary
FB Financial provides deposit, lending, mortgage banking, and wealth management services through FirstBank branches across Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia, with about $16.8 billion in total assets and 90 full-service branches. The bank earns net interest income from loans and investments and non-interest income from mortgage origination and servicing fees.
The moat rests on FirstBank brand recognition in the Southeast, local relationship-based banking, core deposit funding, and mortgage banking infrastructure. It is moderate: the Southeast is a competitive banking market with larger institutions possessing more scale and digital investment capacity.
The thesis fails if NIM compresses sharply from rate cuts, nonperforming loans keep rising above the current 1.17% of loans HFI and force higher credit costs, mortgage banking revenue declines from lower origination volume and tighter gain-on-sale margins, regional economic growth slows, FBK cannot compete with larger banks for commercial relationships, or the current valuation multiple contracts.
CEO Chris Holmes has led the bank since before the 2016 rebranding from First South Bancorp. Q2 2026 execution included loans HFI of $12.87 billion, up 30.3% year over year, an efficiency ratio of 52.3%, and repurchase of 3.01% of common shares outstanding. The key question is whether the bank can sustain margin, credit quality, and growth as the competitive and rate environment evolves.
Southeastern U.S. banking benefits from population and business inflow, GDP growth above the national average, and favorable demographics. The sector headwinds are rate cycle uncertainty, competition from large super-regionals, digital transformation costs, regulatory requirements, and mortgage industry consolidation pressure.
At $61.10, FBK trades at about 15.95x TTM earnings and roughly 1.58x book value. The margin of safety is limited because the stock trades near its 52-week high and the earnings multiple already reflects the southeastern growth story and recent results. Meaningful upside requires loan growth, NIM, and credit quality to hold or improve from current levels.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $61.10 close as of August 3, 2026; $3.05B verified market cap | Yahoo Finance FBK chart API and financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 49.98 million period-end shares as of June 30, 2026 | FB Financial Q2 2026 earnings release and 8-K | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $650.78 million | Yahoo Finance FBK key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $196.53 million | Yahoo Finance FBK key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM and Q2 2026) | $3.83 diluted EPS TTM; Q2 2026 GAAP EPS of $1.13 and adjusted EPS of $1.14 | Yahoo Finance and FB Financial Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 balance sheet | Loans HFI $12.87B (up 30.3% YoY), deposits $14.35B (up 25.8% YoY), total assets $16.80B, NIM 3.95% | FB Financial Q2 2026 earnings release and 8-K | August 4, 2026 |
| Capital and credit quality | CET1 ratio 11.0%, total risk-based capital 12.9%, NPLs 1.17% of loans HFI, net charge-offs 0.06% annualized, book value $38.75, tangible book value $31.19 | FB Financial Q2 2026 earnings release and 8-K | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $1.11 billion | Yahoo Finance FBK key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 15.95x TTM PE, 1.58x PB, 1.37% dividend yield, 11.08% ROE, 1.30% ROA | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and dividend | 52-week range $46.95 to $62.37; annualized dividend $0.84 with ex-dividend date August 11, 2026 | Yahoo Finance FBK quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average analyst target $66.09; range $65.00 to $67.50; Benchmark maintains Buy with price target raised from $64 to $67 on July 15, 2026; Argus holds a Buy rating with a $65 target | Yahoo Finance FBK quote and analyst insights | August 4, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings | Next earnings date October 13, 2026 (Q3 2026) | Yahoo Finance FBK quote | August 4, 2026 |
This FBK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong if net interest margin, interest rate trajectory, credit costs, the nonperforming loan trend, mortgage banking volume, Southeast economic conditions, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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