FB Financial Corporation research snapshot
FBK AI stock analysis treats FB Financial as a conservatively operated Nashville-based regional bank with a southeastern branch network operating as FirstBank, mortgage banking capabilities, and wealth management services. The July 10, 2026 closing price was $56.68 with a verified market capitalization of about $2.92 billion. TTM revenue reached $557.67 million and net income was $140.79 million, producing a 25.25% profit margin. FBK trades at 20.92x TTM earnings, 1.48x book value, and offers a 1.48% dividend yield. The primary upside catalyst is southeastern market growth and rate-driven margin improvement, while the key risk is net interest margin sensitivity and mortgage banking volatility. This FBK AI stock analysis is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$56.68
Market cap
$2.92 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Growing southeastern regional bank with FirstBank franchise, solid profitability, and rate-cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Positive trend near 52-week mid-range with analyst support at $64.50 consensus target
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FB Financial provides commercial and consumer banking, mortgage origination and securitization, and wealth management across Tennessee and neighboring southeastern states. The mortgage segment adds fee income but also creates earnings volatility. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from FirstBank brand recognition in Tennessee and the Southeast, local decision-making for commercial relationships, core deposit funding, and relationship-based cross-selling. The moat is moderate because the Southeast is competitive with large regional and super-regional banks present in every market. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Chris Holmes and the leadership team have grown FB Financial through organic branch expansion and disciplined acquisitions while maintaining a clean credit profile and consistent dividend. Management has prioritized shareholder returns through buybacks and a growing dividend. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $557.67 million and TTM net income was $140.79 million. Profit margin was 25.25%, ROE was 7.87%, and ROA was 0.95%. The bank holds a strong capital position with $1.18 billion in cash. | High |
| Valuation | At $56.68, FBK trades at 20.92x TTM EPS of $2.71, 1.48x book value, and a 1.48% dividend yield. The consensus analyst target of $64.50 suggests modest upside, but the current multiple is above the simple regional bank median. | Medium |
| Technical trend | FBK has rallied from its 52-week low of $45.58 to the current $56.68, trading within the $45.58 to $62.37 range. The stock is above the midpoint of its range with room to the consensus target. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are net interest margin compression if the rate cycle turns, mortgage banking earnings volatility, regional competition from larger banks, credit cycle normalization, trading liquidity constraints for the mid-cap size, and geographic concentration in the Southeast. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for verified financials and market data. Forward return confidence is medium because FBK depends on interest rate direction, southeast economic conditions, mortgage market volume, and regional bank sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FB Financial is a solidly run regional bank with southeastern growth exposure, but investment certainty is moderate because the current valuation is not distressed and upside depends on margin trajectory, loan growth, and mortgage earnings stabilizing at current levels. | Medium |
FBK AI stock forecast
The FBK AI stock forecast below is scenario-based and uses the July 10, 2026 reference price of $56.68, TTM EPS of $2.71, and assumed growth and P/E ranges. It is a scenario tool, not a price target. Actual outcomes will depend on net interest margin, loan growth, credit costs, mortgage banking revenue, and the multiple the market applies to a mid-cap southeastern bank.
$64 to $70
More likely if FBK compounds EPS near 6-8%, NIM expands in a favorable rate environment, mortgage banking revenue stabilizes, loan growth accelerates in the Southeast, credit remains clean, and the market applies a 15-16x forward multiple to a growth-bank profile.
$52 to $58
More likely if EPS compounds near 3-5%, NIM stabilizes near current levels, loan growth tracks regional GDP, mortgage fee income normalizes, and the market values FBK at about 13-14x forward earnings.
$35 to $42
More likely if NIM compresses from rate cuts, credit costs normalize higher, mortgage banking volume declines, loan growth stalls from regional economic slowdown, and the market applies a 10-11x multiple to compressed earnings.
FBK AI technical analysis
FBK AI technical analysis uses the $56.68 close as of July 10, 2026. FBK has rallied 24.4% from its 52-week low of $45.58 and remains below the 52-week high of $62.37. The trend is constructive but not extended, with the stock in the middle of its annual range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $56.68 | Close of trading on July 10, 2026. Intraday range was $56.19 to $56.85, with average volume of about 337,000 shares daily. |
| Near support | $54.00 to $55.00 | This zone aligns with recent consolidation levels. A hold above it keeps the short-term constructive setup intact. |
| Deeper support | $50.00 to $52.00 | This area represents prior trading range support and would become relevant if broader market weakness or a negative bank sector catalyst emerges. |
| Near resistance | $58.00 to $60.00 | Prior technical resistance near $58-$60. A break above this area with volume could open a path toward the analyst consensus target. |
| Upper resistance | $62.37 | The 52-week high represents the ceiling of the current range. A breakout above it would require strong earnings or an explicit NIM/loan growth catalyst. |
| 52-week range | $45.58 to $62.37 | The stock has recovered from the 52-week low and has room to the high within the current range. |
| Momentum | Positive medium-term | FBK has risen from the $45.58 low and is trending upward. Momentum could accelerate or stall after the upcoming earnings report on July 13, 2026. |
| Volume | Below 350,000 shares daily average | Volume is moderate for the mid-cap bank size. Earnings days may see elevated volume above the average. |
| Volatility | Moderate | FBK has a 5-year monthly beta of 0.95, roughly in line with the overall market. Earnings reports and rate decisions drive episodic volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $54.00 | A sustained break below the near-support zone would reduce short-term trend confidence. A break below $50 would suggest a more significant shift. |
FBK AI trading strategy
The FBK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Position sizing, execution timing, risk limits, and review of the latest earnings, NIM trajectory, and credit trends should come before any action.
Look for FBK to break above $58-$60 with increasing volume and earnings confirming NIM stabilization, steady loan growth, clean credit, and a constructive mortgage banking outlook.
Exit or reassess if the breakout fails with a close below $55. Reduce if earnings guidance signals NIM compression, credit deterioration, or weaker loan demand.
If FBK pulls back toward the $50-$52 zone while the rate outlook and Southeast economic conditions remain supportive, compare the lower price with book value, normalized EPS, dividend yield, and peer bank valuations.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if NIM is compressing, mortgage income is falling, credit costs are rising, or the stated earnings guidance is being reduced.
Track net interest income, NIM, loan and deposit growth, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, tangible book value per share, mortgage origination volume and gain-on-sale margins, CET1 ratio, and the dividend payout trajectory.
Size positions conservatively. FBK is a mid-cap regional bank with limited liquidity compared to large-cap peers, so exit plans should account for wider bid-ask spreads.
Investment research summary
FB Financial provides deposit, lending, mortgage banking, and wealth management services through FirstBank branches across Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Missouri. The bank earns net interest income from loans and investments and non-interest income from mortgage origination and servicing fees.
The moat rests on FirstBank brand recognition in the Southeast, local relationship-based banking, core deposit funding, and the mortgage banking infrastructure. It is moderate: the Southeast is a competitive banking market with larger institutions possessing more scale and digital investment capacity.
The thesis fails if NIM compresses sharply from rate cuts, mortgage banking revenue declines from lower origination volume and tighter gain-on-sale margins, loan losses normalize above expectations, regional economic growth slows, FBK cannot compete with larger banks for commercial relationships, or the current valuation multiple contracts.
CEO Chris Holmes has led the bank since before the 2016 rebranding from First South Bancorp. Management has pursued organic growth in high-growth southeast markets and disciplined M&A while maintaining dividend growth and share repurchases. The key question is whether the bank can sustain margin and growth as the competitive and rate environment evolves.
Southeastern U.S. banking benefits from population and business inflow, GDP growth above the national average, and favorable demographics. The sector headwinds are rate cycle uncertainty, competition from large super-regionals, digital transformation costs, regulatory requirements, and mortgage industry consolidation pressure.
At $56.68, FBK trades at 20.92x TTM earnings and 1.48x book value. The margin of safety is moderate because the current earnings multiple already reflects the southeastern growth story and above-median profitability. Meaningful upside requires NIM and loan growth to meet or exceed market expectations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $56.68 last sale as of July 10, 2026; $2.92B verified market cap | Yahoo Finance FBK quote and financial_rigor.py verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 51.50 million shares | Market cap / price cross-check via financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $557.67 million | Yahoo Finance FBK key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $140.79 million | Yahoo Finance FBK key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.71 diluted EPS | Yahoo Finance FBK key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $1.18 billion | Yahoo Finance FBK key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 20.92x TTM PE, 1.48x PB, 1.48% dividend yield, 7.87% ROE, 0.95% ROA | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range and dividend | 52-week range $45.58 to $62.37; annualized dividend $0.84 (1.48% yield) | Yahoo Finance FBK statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average analyst target $64.50; range $63.00 to $67.00; Raymond James Strong Buy, PT raised to $63 | Yahoo Finance FBK analysis and insider trends | July 12, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings | Next earnings date July 13, 2026 (Q2 2026) | Yahoo Finance FBK quote | July 12, 2026 |
This FBK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if net interest margin, interest rate trajectory, credit costs, mortgage banking volume, Southeast economic conditions, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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