First American Financial Corporation research snapshot
FAF AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads First American Financial as a quality U.S. title and settlement franchise trading at a reasonable valuation with a growing countercyclical bank and record commercial momentum. The stock closed at $74.99 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $7.66 billion, computed as $74.99 times 102.1 million shares and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover, which lists 102.1 million shares as of July 20, 2026. The Q2 2026 report, released July 22, 2026, delivered adjusted EPS of $2.08, up 36% year over year, and GAAP diluted EPS of $2.12, up 50% from $1.41, with title segment adjusted revenue of about $2 billion up 14%, record commercial revenue of $314 million up 34%, and refinance revenue up 18%. First American Trust average deposits grew 30% to $7.9 billion, with 36% now coming from sources beyond captive title operations, and management raised the profile of AI-driven efficiency, including the Endpoint and Sequoia title decisioning platforms that target about 70% purchase and 80% refinance automation in title-plan markets. The stock is up about 22% year to date and trades near 10.4x trailing earnings and a 2.93% dividend yield, below the specialty insurance peer average, but the residential purchase market remains flat and refinance is only about 5% of direct revenue, while short interest sits at 6.42% of shares outstanding. This FAF AI stock analysis is an information tool for research and risk control, not investment advice.
Current price
$74.99 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$7.66 billion using 102.1 million shares outstanding; verified as $74.99 x 102.1 million shares, and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover lists 102.1 million shares as of July 20, 2026
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Quality title franchise with a countercyclical bank and record commercial momentum, balanced by a flat residential market and a premium-cycle valuation
Trend status
Uptrend above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below the 5-day average near $76.83, with RSI near 58
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FAF sells title insurance, escrow, and real estate settlement services through direct and agent channels, and pairs that transaction engine with home warranty, data and analytics, mortgage servicing, and the First American Trust bank that now funds a growing share of investment income. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from national title market share, multi-brand distribution, title plant databases, agent relationships, the Endpoint and Sequoia platforms, and a bank that ties agents and service customers closer to the company. | Medium-high |
| Management | Mark Seaton (CEO) and Matt Wajner (CFO) delivered adjusted EPS up 36%, record commercial revenue, expanding title margins, a growing countercyclical bank, and disciplined buybacks at an average price of $61.99 in Q2 while keeping company-wide technology spend flat since 2022. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue through June 2026 was about $7.98 billion with TTM net income of $745.1 million and EPS of $7.22. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS rose 36% to $2.08 and GAAP EPS rose 50% to $2.12, with title segment adjusted pre-tax margin of 14.0%. | High |
| Valuation | At $74.99 and $7.22 TTM EPS, FAF trades near 10.4x trailing earnings, about 10.5x forward earnings against the $7.15 FY2026 consensus, about 1.36x book value, 0.96x sales, and a 2.93% dividend yield, below the specialty insurance peer average. | High |
| Technical trend | As of July 31, 2026, FAF closed at $74.99, above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below the 5-day average near $76.83, with RSI near 58, a 52-week range of $56.20 to $79.87, and a gain of about 22% year to date. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are a flat residential purchase market, higher mortgage rates that mute refinance, title claims above loss expectations, commercial ARPO normalization, slower bank deposit growth, and possible regulatory change if the GSE title acceptance pilot expands. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for the reported business and financial record because company filings, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and StockAnalysis.com agree during the August 3, 2026 refresh. Forecast confidence is medium because housing activity, mortgage rates, title margins, investment income, and commercial deal timing can change quickly. | High for data |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. FAF is a well-priced title insurance platform with a countercyclical bank and dividend support, but a buy decision depends on whether the residential market and the commercial cycle can sustain current earnings levels. | Medium |
FAF AI stock forecast
The FAF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $74.99 and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $7.15. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $46, a base area near $89, and a bullish area near $124 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of about -3%, 6%, and 10% and exit multiples of 7x, 10.5x, and 13x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$112 to $132
More likely if commercial revenue and ARPO keep growing, residential purchase volume recovers, refinance normalizes above 5% of direct revenue, the First American Trust deposit base keeps expanding, AI-driven efficiency lifts title margins, and the market re-rates the stock toward 13x earnings.
$80 to $95
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 6% annually, commercial stays strong but ARPO growth moderates, housing activity improves modestly, title margins hold, dividends stay supported, and the market values FAF near 10.5x earnings.
$38 to $50
More likely if mortgage rates stay elevated, purchase and refinance volumes weaken further, commercial ARPO normalizes, title claims rise, investment income slows, capital returns shrink, or the multiple compresses toward 7x softer earnings.
FAF AI technical analysis
FAF technical analysis is based on data around the August 3, 2026 cutoff. FAF closed at $74.99 on July 31, 2026, up about 22% year to date and about 24% over 52 weeks. Price is above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below the 5-day average near $76.83. Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 50-day average near $69.22 and the 200-day near $65.42, with 14-day RSI near 58, so the intermediate trend is constructive while the very short term is neutral to positive.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $74.99 | StockAnalysis.com reported the July 31, 2026 NYSE close. Market data is not live on this static page. |
| 5-day moving average | $76.83 | Barchart placed the 5-day average near $76.83, above the July 31 close, so near-term momentum cooled slightly after the recent high near $79.87. |
| 20-day moving average | $72.36 | Barchart placed the 20-day average near $72.36 on July 31, 2026, the first support below the close. |
| 50-day moving average | $69.22 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 50-day average near $69.22, a key intermediate support and the zone around the March and April consolidation. |
| 100-day moving average | $67.03 | Barchart placed the 100-day average near $67.03, below the 50-day, and a deeper support reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $65.42 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 200-day average near $65.42, the long-term trend anchor and a critical support on any larger pullback. |
| Resistance | $76.83 to $80 | The 5-day average near $76.83, then the 52-week high near $79.87 and the round-number zone near $80 form the first supply area above the July 31 close. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported 14-day RSI near 57.82, a constructive reading that is not overbought. Barchart 14-day ADX near 20.47 with +DI above -DI confirms a moderate uptrend. |
| Volume | About 781,000 to 801,000 shares average over 20 days | StockAnalysis.com reported average volume of about 781,205 shares and Barchart about 801,110 shares over 20 days. A breakout toward $80 should be checked against current session volume. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.23; ATR(14) about $2.20 or about 2.9% | StockAnalysis.com reported beta 1.23 and Barchart reported ATR(14) near $2.20 or about 2.94%. Price can move materially around earnings dates and mortgage-rate or housing data. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $69.22, then $65.42 | This research framework treats a decisive break below the 50-day average near $69.22 as a weakening of the intermediate uptrend, and a close below the 200-day near $65.42 as a more serious trend warning, subject to confirmation from business data. |
FAF AI trading strategy
The FAF AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with title revenue and margins, purchase versus refinance mix, commercial order counts and ARPO, First American Trust deposits, claim loss ratios, buybacks, dividends, book value, and mortgage-rate trends.
Watch for FAF to hold above the 20-day average near $72.36, reclaim the 5-day average near $76.83, and then challenge the 52-week high near $79.87 with stronger volume while commercial order counts and title margins stay stable. A setup is stronger when mortgage rates ease or purchase order counts recover.
A sustained close below the 50-day average near $69.22, weakening commercial ARPO, a sharp purchase-order slowdown, or a negative mortgage-rate surprise should lower trend-following confidence.
If FAF pulls back toward the 50-day area near $69.22 without a structural title-margin or earnings shock, compare the price with the base range near $80 to $95 and the bear range near $38 to $50, and check deposit growth, buyback activity, and the mortgage-rate trend before treating weakness as attractive.
Set a defined loss limit and avoid averaging down if the pullback is driven by deteriorating title margins, rising claims cost, or a broad decline in housing transactions.
Track title revenue and pre-tax margin, purchase versus refinance mix, direct and agency order counts, commercial open orders and ARPO, First American Trust deposits, ServiceMac loan growth, claim loss ratio, holding-company cash, dividends, buybacks, book value, and mortgage-rate forecasts.
Reduce confidence if dividends and buybacks depend on investment gains rather than title cash generation and sustainable operating earnings, or if commercial revenue becomes overly concentrated in a few large transactions.
Investment research summary
First American converts U.S. real estate closings into title premiums and settlement fees, pairs that transaction-based cash engine with home warranty, data and analytics, mortgage servicing, and a bank that now funds a growing share of investment income, and returns cash through dividends and buybacks.
The moat is strongest in national title market share, multi-brand distribution, title plant databases, agent relationships, and the growing Endpoint and Sequoia automation platforms. It narrows if digital closing platforms commoditize settlement services, agents consolidate, or a broadened GSE title acceptance pilot shifts volume away from traditional title premium.
The thesis fails if mortgage rates stay high, purchase and refinance volumes stay weak, commercial ARPO normalizes after a record run, title claims spike, investment income stalls as the Fed keeps cutting, capital returns shrink, or regulators broaden the title acceptance pilot in a way that erodes premium per order.
Management has delivered a 36% adjusted EPS increase, record commercial revenue, expanding title margins, a growing countercyclical bank, and disciplined buybacks at an average price of $61.99 in Q2 2026 while keeping company-wide technology spend flat since 2022. The test is whether the AI-led efficiency gains and commercial momentum survive a slower housing market.
Title insurance is a durable property-transfer infrastructure service, not a civilization-level growth story. The near-term driver is commercial momentum, data center and development-site demand, and bank deposit growth, while residential remains mortgage-rate dependent and refinance is still far below historic levels.
At about 10.4x trailing earnings, 1.36x book value, and a 2.93% dividend yield, FAF looks reasonably priced for a title franchise with a countercyclical bank. Margin of safety depends on housing recovery odds, commercial ARPO durability, title margin trends, and whether current earnings levels hold without multiple compression.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAF quote and market cap | $74.99 close on July 31, 2026; reported market cap about $7.66 billion | StockAnalysis.com FAF overview and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $74.99 x 102.1 million shares = about $7.66 billion, matching the reported market cap | Pineify market cap math and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding cross-check | StockAnalysis.com reported 102.10 million shares near July 31, 2026; the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover reported 102.1 million shares of common stock outstanding as of July 20, 2026. | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 financials | Revenue $7.452 billion up 21.61%, net income $621.8 million up 374.29%, diluted EPS $6.00 | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials through June 30, 2026 | Revenue $7.984 billion, operating income $1.152 billion, net income $745.1 million, EPS $7.22, free cash flow $832.3 million | StockAnalysis.com TTM financial statements and SEC filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Revenue $2.117 billion up 15%, GAAP diluted EPS $2.12 up 50% from $1.41, H1 2026 diluted EPS $3.33 up from $2.12 | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com quarterly income statement | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted EPS $2.08 up 36%, title segment adjusted revenue about $2.0 billion up 14%, commercial revenue $314 million up 34%, purchase revenue up 2%, refinance revenue up 18%, agency revenue $820 million up 14% | First American Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Commercial and bank engine | 14 commercial transactions above $1 million premium versus 11 a year ago, commercial ARPO of $19,980 a record, First American Trust average deposits $7.9 billion up 30%, ServiceMac deposits $1.7 billion up 76%, 310 title agents banking with First American Trust up 37% | First American Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Segment revenue mix | TTM Title Insurance and Services revenue $7.517 billion and Home Warranty revenue $448.5 million; FY2025 Title revenue $6.978 billion and Home Warranty $442.9 million | StockAnalysis.com KPIs and SEC filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Cash $2.625 billion, total debt $2.583 billion, long-term leases $206.2 million, total assets $18.941 billion, common equity $5.621 billion, book value per share $54.49, tangible book value per share $36.04 | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet cross-check | SEC EDGAR XBRL reports cash of $2.6248 billion and stockholders equity of $5.6208 billion at June 30, 2026, matching the 10-Q based balance sheet; StockAnalysis.com statistics reports cash of $2.73 billion and total debt of $2.79 billion under S&P Global classification | SEC EDGAR XBRL and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow and capital allocation | TTM operating cash flow $1.004 billion, capital expenditures $171.7 million, free cash flow $832.3 million; FY2025 free cash flow $762.5 million; H1 2026 free cash flow $285 million up 32%; Q2 2026 buybacks of 330,000 shares for $20 million at an average price of $61.99 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $2.20, about 2.93% yield at $74.99, 15 years of dividend growth, payout ratio 30.49%, Q2 2026 dividend $0.55 per share | StockAnalysis.com dividends and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | TTM P/E 10.39x, forward P/E 10.58x, P/S 0.96x, P/B 1.36x, P/TBV 2.53x, P/FCF 9.20x, EV/EBITDA 5.71x, EV/FCF 9.40x, ROE 13.85%, shareholder yield 3.75% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $87.67 across 6 analysts, low $83, median $85.50, high $99 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 25, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Benchmark initiated Buy with $85 on July 22, KBW raised to $86 from $84 on July 24, Barclays raised to $83 from $80 on July 8, Truist Buy with $85 on July 23, Deutsche Bank Buy on July 3 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | July 25, 2026 |
| Forward estimates | FY2026 consensus revenue about $8.18 billion and adjusted EPS about $7.15; FY2027 revenue about $8.52 billion and adjusted EPS about $7.40; FY2026 dividend estimate $2.22 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 25, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.56 million shares short, 6.42% of shares outstanding, about 6.43 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and AI platforms | CEO Mark Seaton, Executive Chairman Dennis Gilmore, CFO Matt Wajner. Endpoint automation rose from 30% in Q1 to 34% in Q2 and about 39% in July, Sequoia refinance automation rose from 35% to 40%, and the platforms target about 70% purchase and 80% refinance automation in markets with title plans | First American Q2 2026 earnings call and company profile | July 23, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Barchart: 5-day average near $76.83, 20-day near $72.36, 50-day near $69.22, 100-day near $67.03, 200-day near $65.42, 14-day RSI near 57.82, 14-day ADX near 20.47, ATR(14) near $2.20. StockAnalysis.com: 50-day near $69.22, 200-day near $65.42, RSI near 57.82, average volume 20 days near 781,205. | Barchart FAF technical page and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This FAF AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if First American Financial fundamentals, housing activity, mortgage rates, commercial real estate conditions, regulation, bank deposit flows, or market valuation change.
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