EquipmentShare.com, Inc. research snapshot
EQPT AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads EquipmentShare.com as a fast-growing construction equipment rental and technology company that just reached its first sustained trailing GAAP profit. The stock closed at $18.75 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization of $4.73 billion on about 252.4 million shares, a market cap verified by financial_rigor.py at a 0.04% deviation. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached $4.65 billion, up 23.6%, with net income of about $20 million and EPS of $0.08, an improvement from a $37 million FY2024 loss attributable to common shareholders. On July 9, 2026, management raised full-year 2026 guidance, lifting rental segment revenue growth to a 33% midpoint and adjusted core EBITDA to $1.946 billion to $2.058 billion, and the board authorized a $500 million share repurchase program. On June 16, 2026, the company priced $1.35 billion of 7.125% senior secured second lien notes due 2034 and received a first-time Fitch BB- issuer default rating with a stable outlook. The core tension is that the company remains highly leveraged with net debt near $3.88 billion, interest coverage of only about 1.05x, and deeply negative free cash flow, while a securities class action filed after a July 2026 short seller report alleges IPO disclosures understated founder-affiliated related-party transactions, with a lead plaintiff deadline of September 21, 2026. Analysts carry a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $33.80. This page is informational only and not investment advice.
Current price
$18.75
Market cap
$4.73 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Rental and technology growth with a raised 2026 outlook and the first trailing GAAP profit, but a securities class action, extreme leverage with thin interest coverage, and deeply negative free cash flow keep the rating moderate
Trend status
Recovered from the July 52-week low after the July 9 guidance raise and $500 million buyback authorization, now above the 20-day moving average but still below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | EquipmentShare.com combines construction and industrial equipment rental and sales with a technology platform built on its T3 fleet management, telematics, and rental marketplace software. FY2025 revenue of $4,379 million split roughly 62% rental and services ($2,724 million), 35% equipment sales ($1,541 million), and 3% all other ($114 million). The business is fast-growing but capital-intensive, with the OWN program shifting part of fleet growth to third-party capital. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from a growing full-service rental location network (186 mature sites at the end of 2025, targeting about 264 by the end of 2026), a young fleet, proprietary T3 telematics and marketplace software that creates switching costs, and local service density. It is narrower against United Rentals, CAT dealers, and other large rental platforms, and the software layer can be replicated over time. | Medium |
| Management | Founders Jabbok Schlacks (CEO) and William J. Schlacks IV (President) scaled revenue from $1.7 billion in FY2022 to $4.4 billion in FY2025 and reached a sustained trailing GAAP profit. July 9, 2026 actions included a full-year guidance raise and a $500 million buyback authorization. June 16, 2026 actions included an upsized $1.35 billion notes offering and a first-time Fitch BB- issuer default rating. The concern is the securities class action, which names William Schlacks over IPO related-party transaction disclosures, and interest coverage of only about 1.05x. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Improving. TTM revenue rose 23.6% to $4.65 billion with gross margin of 35.8%, up from 35.7% in FY2025 and 33.2% in FY2024. TTM net income was about $20 million (EPS $0.08), the first sustained GAAP profit, versus a $37 million FY2024 loss attributable to common shareholders. But TTM operating cash flow was only $115 million and free cash flow was deeply negative at about negative $746 million on a net basis, with net debt near $3.88 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $18.75, TTM PE was about 228x on near-zero trailing EPS, forward PE about 41x on the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $0.48, EV/EBITDA about 12.2x on TTM EBITDA of $698 million, EV/Revenue about 1.83x, price to sales about 1.02x, price to book about 3.95x, and PEG about 2.05x. These multiples are not cheap and price in continued strong growth and a clean litigation outcome. | Medium |
| Technical trend | EQPT closed at $18.75 on July 31, 2026, recovered from the July 52-week low of $15.71 after the July 9 guidance raise and buyback news, and now trades above the 20-day moving average near $17.87 but below the 50-day near $19.77 and the 100-day near $20.92. RSI was neutral near 49.7, and volatility was extreme, with 20-day historic volatility near 98%. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high. The primary risks are the securities class action and short-seller allegations with a September 21, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline, extreme leverage with net debt near $3.88 billion and interest coverage of about 1.05x, deeply negative free cash flow that requires ongoing financing, extreme volatility with historic volatility of 75% to 98%, short interest near 8.24% of shares outstanding (18.38% of float), and cyclical exposure to construction spending and interest rates. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financial data, share count, market-cap math, guidance, and technical inputs are well documented from StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and company press releases. AI cannot predict litigation outcomes, construction cycles, interest rate trends, utilization rates, or the timing of free cash flow breakeven. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low. Even with a raised outlook and a first trailing GAAP profit, the leverage, deeply negative free cash flow, securities litigation, and extreme volatility mean the equity carries financial risk that is not captured by headline revenue growth. | Low |
EQPT AI stock forecast
The EQPT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a promised price. The company is now modestly GAAP profitable on a trailing basis, so the scenarios apply forward adjusted EPS and EV/EBITDA to FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates and management guidance. The consensus calls for FY2026 revenue of about $5.36 billion (up 22%) and adjusted EPS of about $0.48, then FY2027 revenue of about $6.47 billion and adjusted EPS of about $1.06. Analyst targets range from $19 to $55 with an average of $33.80. Construction spending, litigation, utilization, interest costs, and financing decisions remain uncertain, so these ranges are frameworks, not predictions.
$32 to $45
More likely if revenue growth stays above 20%, adjusted core EBITDA reaches or exceeds the raised $1.946 billion to $2.058 billion guidance, FY2027 adjusted EPS reaches $1.20 to $1.40 through operating leverage, free cash flow turns toward breakeven, the securities class action resolves without material liability, construction demand remains strong, and the forward multiple holds near 30x to 40x.
$22 to $32
More likely if revenue grows 15% to 22%, adjusted core EBITDA lands within the raised guidance range, FY2027 adjusted EPS tracks consensus near $1.06, free cash flow stays negative but narrows, leverage stabilizes, the litigation persists as an overhang without a catastrophic outcome, and the forward multiple settles near 22x to 30x. This is broadly consistent with the $33.80 average analyst target and the $19 low.
$9 to $16
More likely if a construction or industrial downturn cuts utilization and rental rates, revenue growth slows below 10%, margins compress, FY2027 adjusted EPS disappoints to $0.60 to $0.80 or GAAP losses return, the 7.125% notes and existing debt become a cash flow strain, free cash flow deteriorates, or the class action or short-seller allegations lead to charges, restatements, or dilutive equity issuance, with the multiple compressing to about 15x or below.
EQPT AI technical analysis
EQPT AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 closing snapshot from Barchart and StockAnalysis.com. The static page does not fetch live market data. The stock closed at $18.75, recovered from the $15.71 July 52-week low after the July 9 guidance raise and $500 million buyback authorization, and now sits above the 20-day moving average but below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, with extreme volatility and a neutral RSI.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.75 | Close on July 31, 2026, with an after-hours print of $18.80. Up roughly 19% from the $15.71 July low. |
| Near support | $17.87 (20-day MA) | The 20-day moving average, which held during the recovery. A close below it would open a test of the July base near $16.00 to $16.50. |
| 52-week low support | $15.71 | The critical July low set after the short seller report. A break below this level would open a new lower price range. |
| Secondary support | $15.00 | Psychological round-number support below the 52-week low. |
| Near resistance | $19.77 (50-day MA) | The 50-day moving average, the first resistance zone on the recovery. A sustained close above it would improve the short-term picture. |
| Secondary resistance | $20.92 (100-day MA) | The 100-day moving average. A sustained close above this level would confirm the recovery from the July low. |
| Higher resistance | $23.35 to $24.50 | The year-to-date average price near $23.35 and the $24.50 January IPO price. Above these, the next targets are toward the analyst target zone. |
| 52-week high resistance | $35.50 | The high set in early 2026 before the July selloff. A move back to this level would represent a near-doubling from the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI 49.68 (neutral) | The 14-day RSI recovered to neutral from oversold, with a 9-day RSI near 52.1. ADX near 12.0 indicates a weak overall trend. |
| Volume | Elevated, 20-day average near 3.76M | Volume spiked on the July 9 guidance and buyback rally days and has remained above the 5-day average, consistent with a high-attention stock. |
| Volatility | Extreme, 20-day historic volatility near 98% | Barchart shows 14-day historic volatility of 75.18% and 20-day historic volatility of 98.28%, with an ATR near $1.49, or about 7.95% of price. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $15.71 | A sustained close below the 52-week low of $15.71 invalidates the July recovery and would point to a lower trading range. |
EQPT AI trading strategy
The EQPT AI trading strategy is a research and risk-control framework, not a personalized recommendation. It combines live chart confirmation with Q2 2026 earnings due August 12, 2026, rental segment growth, adjusted core EBITDA versus the raised guidance, free cash flow, leverage, short interest, and litigation developments such as the September 21, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.
After the sharp July rally from the $16.00 base, a mean-reversion approach can be considered if the stock pulls back toward the 20-day moving average near $17.50 to $18.00, holds that zone on declining volume, and then bounces with RSI recovering from the low 40s. This is a high-risk setup given the extreme volatility.
Given historic volatility near 75% to 98%, position size should be small. A stop below the July base near $16.00 to $16.50 is appropriate. If the stock breaks below the 52-week low of $15.71 on volume, the setup is invalidated.
A trend-following approach becomes viable only after a sustained close above the 50-day moving average near $19.77 and then above the 100-day moving average near $20.92 on above-average volume. The next targets would be the year-to-date average near $23.35 and the $24.50 IPO price.
Use a trailing stop below the 20-day moving average. A close back below the 50-day moving average near $19.77 would signal a failed breakout and should trigger an exit. Size for false breakouts given the extreme volatility.
Track the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 12, 2026, rental segment revenue against the 33% midpoint growth target, adjusted core EBITDA against the $1.946 billion to $2.058 billion guidance, operating cash flow and net capital expenditure, net debt and interest coverage, free cash flow trajectory, utilization rates, buyback execution, short interest, and litigation developments including the September 21, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth slows below 15%, if adjusted core EBITDA falls short of guidance, if free cash flow deteriorates significantly, if the company issues dilutive equity, if interest coverage falls further, or if the class action or short-seller allegations escalate into material charges.
Investment research summary
EquipmentShare.com rents and sells heavy construction and industrial equipment and sells a technology platform built on its T3 fleet management, telematics, and rental marketplace software. Customers pay for equipment access and for software that improves utilization and reduces downtime. The business is fast-growing and now modestly profitable on a trailing basis, but it is capital-intensive, and the OWN program shifts part of fleet growth to third-party capital.
The moat comes from a growing full-service rental location network, a young fleet, proprietary T3 telematics and marketplace software, and local service density. It can narrow if competitors replicate the technology, if the branch network fails to scale profitably, or if larger players such as United Rentals and CAT dealers use scale to undercut pricing.
The thesis fails if a construction downturn cuts utilization and rental rates, if the $1.35 billion 7.125% notes and existing debt become a cash flow strain, if the securities class action or short-seller allegations lead to charges, restatements, or equity dilution, if the OWN program economics disappoint, or if the capital-light growth model fails to generate positive free cash flow.
Founders Jabbok Schlacks (CEO) and William J. Schlacks IV (President) scaled revenue from $1.7 billion in FY2022 to $4.4 billion in FY2025 and reached a sustained trailing GAAP profit. On July 9, 2026 they raised full-year guidance and authorized a $500 million buyback, and on June 16, 2026 they priced a $1.35 billion notes offering and received a first-time Fitch BB- issuer default rating. The overhang is the securities class action naming William Schlacks over IPO related-party transaction disclosures.
The equipment rental industry benefits from a secular shift from equipment ownership to rental, driven by construction, industrial, and infrastructure spending, and from growing adoption of telematics, IoT, and fleet management software. Wells Fargo cites an accelerating U.S. non-residential recovery. The industry remains cyclical and sensitive to construction spending and interest rates.
At $18.75, EQPT trades at about 41x forward earnings on the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $0.48, about 12.2x EV/EBITDA on TTM EBITDA of $698 million, about 1.83x EV/Revenue, and about 3.95x price to book. The valuation prices in continued strong growth and a clean litigation outcome, so the margin of safety is thin given negative free cash flow and extreme leverage.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EQPT price | $18.75 close on July 31, 2026; 52-week range $15.71 to $35.50 | StockAnalysis.com quote and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.73 billion, verified as $18.75 x 252.38 million shares | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve-month revenue | $4,652 million, up 23.6%; FY2025 revenue $4,379 million, up 16.3% | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About $20 million net income and $0.08 EPS; FY2025 net income attributable to common about $1 million to $3 million versus a $37 million FY2024 loss | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EBITDA and margins | TTM EBITDA about $698 million; gross margin 35.83%, operating margin 6.62%, EBITDA margin 15.00% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash $329 million, total debt $4,206 million including leases, net debt about $3,877 million at March 31, 2026; SEC long-term debt $3,082 million before leases | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM operating cash flow $115 million, net capital expenditure about $861 million, free cash flow about negative $746 million on a net basis (gross free cash flow negative $1,946 million before property and equipment sale proceeds) | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value | Common shareholders equity $1,201 million and book value per share $5.15 at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | EV about $8.53 billion; TTM PE about 228x, forward PE about 41x on FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $0.48, EV/EBITDA about 12.2x, EV/Revenue about 1.83x, price to sales about 1.02x, price to book about 3.95x, PEG about 2.05x | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 20.79 million shares short, 8.24% of shares outstanding, 18.38% of float, 6.77 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 11 analysts, average price target $33.80, median $36.50, low $19, high $55 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Total revenue $5,254 to $5,682 million, rental segment revenue midpoint growth of 33%, adjusted core EBITDA $1,946 to $2,058 million, $500 million buyback authorized | EquipmentShare.com July 9, 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt financing and credit rating | $1,350 million of 7.125% senior secured second lien notes due 2034; Fitch first-time BB- issuer default rating with stable outlook, ABL revolver BB+, second lien notes BB | EquipmentShare.com June 16, 2026 press releases and Fitch | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 20-day moving average $17.87, 50-day $19.77, 100-day $20.92, RSI 49.68, 20-day historic volatility 98.28%, 20-day average volume about 3.76 million | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
This EQPT AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public filings, quote snapshots, technical data, analyst estimates, and third-party sources as of August 3, 2026. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings reports, litigation developments, construction spending data, interest rate changes, debt management actions, market moves, or macro conditions.
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