EchoStar Corporation research snapshot
ECHO AI stock analysis now reads EchoStar Corporation as an asset-backed spectrum and SpaceX-stake story rather than a clean operating compounder. AT&T closed the roughly $23 billion spectrum purchase on July 28, 2026, DISH DBS and DISH Wireless entered prepackaged Chapter 11 on June 30 to repay debt and wind down the 5G build, and analysts value EchoStar's roughly 262 million SpaceX shares at far more than the $24.37 billion market cap at the $84.09 July 31, 2026 close. The remaining swing factors are the pending $17 billion SpaceX spectrum deal, the Hughes Network Systems $1.5 billion maturity that hit August 1, escrow claims, and the operating decline in Pay-TV and broadband. The AI stock forecast stays scenario-based, and the next catalyst is Q2 2026 earnings on August 3. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$84.09
Market cap
$24.37 billion
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Event-driven asset value with a large SpaceX stake, improving leverage, and unresolved restructuring risk
Trend status
Bearish to mixed after the post-SpaceX-debut and post-AT&T-close selloff. ECHO closed the week below both the 50-day moving average ($106.21) and the 200-day moving average ($105.71) in the StockAnalysis snapshot as of August 1, 2026.
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | EchoStar still owns DISH, Sling, Boost Mobile, Hughes, satellite assets, and spectrum rights, but the operating base is shrinking: Pay-TV revenue keeps falling, the DISH Wireless 5G network is being decommissioned, and Hughes faces a $1.5 billion maturity with thin cash. | Medium |
| Moat | The strongest assets are licensed spectrum, satellite infrastructure, and the SpaceX relationship and stake. The moat is weaker in consumer Pay-TV and prepaid wireless, where cord-cutting and larger network operators keep pressuring pricing. | Medium |
| Management | Charles Ergen remains central through ownership and voting control. Management is executing deleveraging through the AT&T close, DISH prepackaged restructuring, and spectrum sales, while the Hughes bankruptcy remains an open test of capital allocation. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue declined from $15.83 billion in 2024 to $15.00 billion in 2025 and about $14.80 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis. Q1 2026 revenue was $3.667 billion, down year over year, although operating income improved to $392.8 million and the Q1 net loss narrowed. | High |
| Valuation | Traditional PE is not useful because 2025 EPS was negative and the trailing EPS is about -$50.11. At $84.09, the market mainly prices the SpaceX stake, remaining spectrum value, and post-debt-reduction residual rather than current earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis showed ECHO at $84.09 on July 31 with RSI near 32.35, a 50-day moving average near $106.21, and a 200-day moving average near $105.71, so price sits well below both and the short-term trend remains under pressure. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the Hughes $1.5 billion maturity, the pending $17 billion SpaceX deal, escrow claims, remaining leverage, declining Pay-TV economics, and concentrated voting control can all alter the equity case. | High |
| AI confidence | The research confidence is high for reported facts, medium for cash and for the SpaceX-stake valuation, and low for a precise target price because event outcomes dominate the model. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium. ECHO now has clearer asset value than before the AT&T close, but it still does not screen as a predictable earnings compounder. | Low-medium |
ECHO AI stock forecast
The ECHO AI stock forecast uses conditional ranges around the $84.09 July 31, 2026 close. Because earnings and free cash flow are negative, PE-based target prices are not reliable; the useful framework is the SpaceX stake, remaining spectrum proceeds, debt payoff, escrow claims, and residual operating value. Q2 2026 results due August 3 are the next near-term catalyst.
$120 to $140
More likely if the $17 billion SpaceX spectrum deal closes, the SpaceX stake is recognized at recent SPCX valuations, the Hughes restructuring is contained, Q2 2026 results show continued operating improvement, and price reclaims the $100 to $106 moving-average zone.
$95 to $115
More likely if debt reduction continues, the DISH prepackaged plans move toward emergence by the end of Q3, and the market partially values the SpaceX stake, but the $17 billion SpaceX deal stays pending and Pay-TV and Hughes pressures keep a discount applied.
$60 to $80
More likely if Hughes files Chapter 11 with contagion to the rest of the structure, the SpaceX deal fails or stake delivery is impaired, escrow claims and taxes consume more than expected, or operating losses and liquidity pressure re-emerge after Q2 results.
ECHO AI technical analysis
ECHO AI technical analysis is bearish to mixed as of the August 1, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close at $84.09, RSI near 32.35, a 50-day moving average near $106.21, and a 200-day moving average near $105.71. After the SpaceX debut selloff in June and the AT&T-close reaction in late July, price is making lower lows, and it needs a close back above the $88 to $92 zone before the downtrend is challenged.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $84.09 | StockAnalysis listed ECHO at $84.09 at the July 31, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $82.5 to $84 | The July 29 intraday low was $82.48 and the July 31 low was $83.75, so this band is the first defense for the base case. |
| Secondary support | $78 to $80 | The round $80 zone has not been tested since the spring 2026 rally and becomes the next reference if $82.5 fails. |
| Near resistance | $88.7 to $92 | The July 27 high was $88.67 and the July 21 to July 23 highs were near $92 to $96, so this zone is the first hurdle for a rebound. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $106.21, 200-day near $105.71 | Both moving averages sit well above price, so the medium-term trend is still unconfirmed until those are reclaimed. |
| Momentum | RSI near 32.35 | RSI is approaching oversold territory, which can support a bounce, but it is not yet a confirmed reversal signal. |
| Volume | About 4.1 million shares on July 31; 5.2 million average | Volume spiked on event days such as the SpaceX debut on June 12 and the ticker-change week, reflecting high event-driven interest. |
| Volatility | High event risk | Q2 earnings on August 3, the Hughes filing, the $17 billion SpaceX deal, and prepackaged-plan developments can move the stock more than the technical levels imply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $82.48 | A decisive close below the July 29 low would weaken the base-case framework and open the path toward the $78 to $80 zone. |
ECHO AI trading strategy
The ECHO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It pairs event catalysts such as Q2 earnings, the Hughes filing, the SpaceX deal, and the prepackaged emergence with trend confirmation and explicit invalidation levels.
Wait for ECHO to close above $92 and hold that level for several sessions, ideally with improving news on the SpaceX deal, a contained Hughes restructuring, and no setback in Q2 results on August 3.
A failed rally back below $88.7 should reduce setup confidence because it would show that event buyers are not defending the post-AT&T-close base.
If ECHO retests $82.5 to $84 without a new restructuring shock or liquidity problem, compare the pullback with the debt market reaction, the Hughes docket, escrow claims, and Q2 results before treating it as a value setup.
Do not treat a lower price as safer if cash burn, unpaid-claim exposure, the Hughes filing, or SpaceX-deal timing worsens.
Track Q2 2026 results on August 3, the $17 billion SpaceX deal closing, SpaceX-stake delivery and pricing, the Hughes Chapter 11 docket, the DISH DBS prepackaged emergence, remaining debt maturities, cash position, Pay-TV subscriber losses, and Boost Mobile churn.
Position sizing should reflect event risk. ECHO can trade more like a restructuring and asset-backed equity than a normal communications stock.
Investment research summary
Customers pay EchoStar for video distribution, streaming, prepaid wireless access, satellite broadband, and communications infrastructure. In 2026, equity value is driven more by the SpaceX stake, spectrum sales, and debt reduction than by steady customer growth.
The moat is strongest in licensed spectrum, satellite capacity, FCC authorizations, Hughes technology, and the SpaceX relationship. It is weaker in Pay-TV and prepaid wireless, where larger competitors and cord-cutting pressure margins.
The thesis fails if gross asset value from the SpaceX stake and spectrum proceeds is consumed by the Hughes and DISH restructurings, debt, escrow claims, taxes, timing delays, or litigation before common shareholders receive the benefit.
The control structure gives Charles Ergen large influence over capital allocation and timing. Deleveraging via the AT&T close and prepackaged plans shows intent, but minority shareholders still accept concentrated voting power and key-person risk.
The long-term trend favors connectivity, mobile data, satellite direct-to-device service, and spectrum scarcity. It does not favor legacy satellite TV subscriber economics, and the DISH Wireless wind-down reflects that shift.
At $84.09, the $24.37 billion market cap is below most analyst estimates of the SpaceX stake alone, but the margin of safety depends on stake delivery, the $17 billion deal closing, Hughes resolution, and the value of the remaining Boost, Hughes, Sling, DISH, and satellite operations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $84.09 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis ECHO quote and history | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $24.37 billion with 289.81 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis ECHO statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | $26.04 to $147.25; beta 1.00 | StockAnalysis ECHO quote and statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $3.667 billion, down about 5% from Q1 2025 | EchoStar Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net loss and EPS | $146.9 million net loss attributable to EchoStar; EPS -$0.51 | EchoStar Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY 2025 revenue and net loss | $15.005 billion revenue; $14.497 billion net loss including impairments | EchoStar FY 2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, total debt, and book value | About $1.52 billion cash; about $29.24 billion total debt; about $19.47 book value per share | StockAnalysis ECHO statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve-month cash flow | Operating cash flow about -$67.85 million and free cash flow about -$908.58 million | StockAnalysis ECHO statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| AT&T spectrum transaction close | Closed July 28, 2026 at approximately $23 billion, with about $20.25 billion paid to EchoStar and about $2.4 billion placed in an FCC-mandated trust | AT&T press release and EchoStar Form 8-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Debt repaid after the AT&T close | DISH DBS fully repaid its $2.0 billion notes due July 1, 2026, and DISH Network redeemed roughly $3.686 billion in senior secured notes | EchoStar Form 8-K and coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| DISH DBS and DISH Wireless restructuring | Prepackaged Chapter 11 filed June 30, 2026 to repay DISH DBS debt early and transition the DISH Wireless business | EchoStar press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Hughes Network Systems situation | WSJ reported late July that Hughes was preparing a Chapter 11 filing around the $1.5 billion maturity due August 1, 2026; the filing was not yet confirmed as of August 2 | WSJ report via press coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| SpaceX stake | About 262 million SpaceX shares, worth roughly $42 billion at the June 16 first-day close area of about $161 per share | New Street Research via CNBC | August 2, 2026 |
| SpaceX spectrum transaction | Approximately $17 billion for AWS-4 and H-block licenses, up to $8.5 billion cash and $8.5 billion in SpaceX stock, announced September 2025 and still pending | EchoStar SpaceX announcement | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and target | 6 analysts rate ECHO Strong Buy with an average target of $135.67; Citi at $126, Deutsche Bank at $137, Raymond James Strong Buy at $115 | StockAnalysis ECHO forecast and analyst coverage | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI near 32.35, 50-day MA near $106.21, 200-day MA near $105.71 | StockAnalysis ECHO statistics | August 1, 2026 |
This ECHO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 1, 2026 and may be wrong if the SpaceX deal, the Hughes filing, regulatory conditions, escrow claims, debt costs, operating trends, or market prices change. Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 3, 2026 had not been released at the data cutoff.
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