Driven Brands Holdings Inc. research snapshot
DRVN AI stock analysis currently reads Driven Brands as a franchise-based automotive services platform with a strong Take 5 oil change growth engine, a portfolio of established brands, and significant debt leverage from its acquisition-heavy growth strategy. The company operates over 5,200 locations across paint and collision, oil change, auto glass, and parts distribution. The DRVN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because the investment thesis depends on debt reduction execution, comparable-store sales consistency, and the ability to generate free cash flow while servicing $2.2 billion in debt.
Current price
$15.55
Market cap
$2.56 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Franchise-based auto services platform with strong Take 5 growth, high debt leverage, and execution-dependent deleveraging
Trend status
Constructive above key moving averages after a recovery from the $9.80 52-week low, but high debt limits upside conviction
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Driven Brands franchises and operates automotive services including oil change (Take 5), paint and collision (MAACO, CARSTAR, ABRA), auto glass (Auto Glass Now), and parts distribution (1-800-Radiator). The Take 5 express oil change segment is the primary growth driver with strong unit economics. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is built on franchise network scale (5,200+ locations), multi-brand cross-selling, Take 5 brand recognition in oil change, and the recurring, weather-resistant nature of automotive maintenance demand. Switching costs for franchisees and customers are moderate. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Daniel Rivera has led a rapid M&A expansion strategy that built scale but also created the current $2.2 billion debt load. The key test is whether management can now execute the deleveraging plan while maintaining same-store sales growth. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue for fiscal 2025 was approximately $1.9 billion, but net income is split between GAAP to common ($141M) and broader net income ($189M). Q1 2026 showed revenue of $484M (down 6.1% YoY) but net income of $55M, a significant improvement from Q1 2025. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $15.55, verified math shows about 18.1x TTM GAAP EPS, 12.6x forward earnings, 1.3x sales, 3.2x book, and roughly 22x FCF. EV/EBITDA of about 12.1x reflects the debt-inclusive enterprise value. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | DRVN is above the 50-day ($13.59), 100-day ($13.02), and 200-day ($14.14) moving averages, showing a constructive recovery from the February 2026 crash that took the stock to $9.80. | Medium |
| Risk level | High. The 277% debt-to-equity ratio and $2.2 billion debt against $133 million cash is the dominant risk. Cyclical auto service demand, franchisee health, execution on same-store sales, and interest expense create additional downside vectors. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is medium-high for public company data. Return confidence is lower because the net income range, debt-dependent thesis, and execution risk make future earnings harder to predict precisely. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DRVN is a speculative deleveraging story with an attractive franchise platform. The business quality is real, but the balance sheet makes this a higher-risk allocation that requires active monitoring. | Low-medium |
DRVN AI stock forecast
The DRVN AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a promised price target. Using the July 13, 2026 research cutoff, a $15.55 stock price, $0.86 TTM GAAP EPS, and a three-year model, the tested range spans a bearish $8.60 area, a base $16.30 area, and a bullish $26.20 area. The wide spread reflects the uncertainty around debt reduction pace, same-store sales trends, and the valuation multiple the market assigns to a deleveraging franchise platform.
$24 to $28
More likely if Take 5 same-store sales accelerate, debt is reduced faster than expected, free cash flow conversion improves, operating margins expand, and the market re-rates DRVN at a premium franchise-services multiple similar to Valvoline or Mister Car Wash.
$14 to $18
More likely if EPS grows in the mid-single digits, Take 5 unit growth continues, debt reduction is steady but gradual, and the market applies a mid-teens earnings multiple consistent with the current leveraged-franchise profile.
$8 to $10
More likely if same-store sales stagnate, debt reduction stalls, interest expense consumes more cash flow, franchisee unit economics weaken, or the stock retests the February 2026 lows around $9.80.
DRVN AI technical analysis
DRVN AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 13, 2026 data cutoff. The stock was near $15.55, well above the 50-day ($13.59), 100-day ($13.02), and 200-day ($14.14) moving averages from Barchart.com technical data. The stock recovered sharply from the February 2026 low of $9.80. The 14-day RSI near 68 is approaching overbought territory, and the 9-day ADX of 36 suggests a strong short-term trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.55 | Barchart.com and Yahoo Finance showed this price level near the close of July 10, 2026, with an after-hours tick at $15.58. |
| Near support | $14.14 to $14.50 | The 200-day moving average at $14.14 is the primary support level. Barchart.com showed DRVN trading well above this level, and a pullback to the $14.50 area would be a typical retest. |
| Deeper support | $13.00 to $13.60 | Barchart.com showed the 50-day moving average at $13.59 and the 100-day at $13.02. The 50-day area is the key short-term support zone. |
| Near resistance | $17.00 to $17.50 | The analyst consensus target from Yahoo Finance is $17.01, and the zone around $17 to $17.50 is the next major resistance before the 52-week high of $19.74. |
| 52-week high | $19.74 | Yahoo Finance showed the 52-week range between $9.80 and $19.74. The upper end represents full recovery territory from the February 2026 crash. |
| 50-day moving average | $13.59 | Barchart.com reported DRVN above this average, which supports a short-term bullish technical bias. |
| 200-day moving average | $14.14 | Barchart.com reported DRVN above its 200-day moving average, confirming the medium-term trend turned positive after the February 2026 lows. |
| Momentum | Strong short-term, constructive medium-term | The 9-day ADX of 36.12 and 14-day RSI of 68.29 from Barchart.com indicate strong short-term momentum approaching overbought levels. |
| Volume monitor | About 1.5 million average shares | Barchart.com showed the 50-day average volume at about 1.5 million shares. Volume spikes during earnings or debt-related news are the key signal to watch. |
| Invalidation | Close below $14.14 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving average would weaken the current recovery setup and signal that distribution pressure is returning. |
DRVN AI trading strategy
The DRVN AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It combines trend confirmation with fundamental checks because the leveraged balance sheet means DRVN can react differently to earnings and macro news than an unlevered services company.
Wait for DRVN to hold above the $14.14 to $14.50 support zone with volume confirmation and a clear break above the $17 analyst consensus resistance. Monitor the July 30, 2026 earnings release for debt reduction progress and same-store sales commentary.
Treat a failed retest below the 200-day moving average as a warning and a close below the $13.02 100-day moving average as trend invalidation. High debt means position sizing should be conservative.
If DRVN pulls back toward the $14.14 200-day moving average, compare the price action with debt paydown progress, free cash flow trends, and Take 5 same-store sales data from the next quarterly report.
Do not average down without a defined exit. The mean-reversion case fails if debt reduction targets are missed or interest expense guidance increases.
Track the July 30, 2026 earnings release, quarterly debt paydown, free cash flow conversion, Take 5 same-store sales, segment margin trends, and any refinancing or covenant updates.
Keep position size appropriate for a high-debt mid-cap. The leverage amplifies both upside and downside, making risk management more important than directional conviction.
Investment research summary
Driven Brands sells automotive maintenance services through a franchise and company-operated network. Customers pay for oil changes, paint and collision repair, auto glass replacement, and parts because vehicles need regular, non-discretionary maintenance regardless of the economic cycle.
The moat comes from franchise network scale across 5,200+ locations, multi-brand diversification, Take 5 brand recognition in the express oil change category, and the recurring nature of automotive maintenance demand. Switching costs are moderate: franchisees have invested capital, and customers form habits around convenience locations.
The thesis fails if debt repayment consumes free cash flow without the balance sheet improving fast enough, same-store sales soften under consumer pressure, franchisee unit economics deteriorate, or the company faces a refinancing event at higher interest rates.
CEO Daniel Rivera built Driven Brands through aggressive M&A, growing from a smaller platform to a 5,200+ location network. The strategic question is whether the same management team can pivot from acquisition integration to organic execution and deleveraging.
Driven Brands operates in the vehicle maintenance industry, which benefits from an aging U.S. vehicle fleet, increasing miles driven, and the non-discretionary nature of oil changes, collision repair, and glass replacement. The trend is stable but competitive, with local shops and other franchise chains competing for market share.
At $15.55, verified math shows about 18.1x TTM GAAP EPS, 12.6x forward earnings, and 12.1x EV/EBITDA. Margin of safety is limited because the high debt load means small changes in operating performance or interest rates can produce outsized moves in equity value.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DRVN price | $15.55 | Yahoo Finance quote | July 13, 2026 |
| Market cap | $2.56 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 164.96 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.63 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.9 billion | Yahoo Finance income statement | July 13, 2026 |
| Net income to common (TTM) | $141.43 million | Yahoo Finance income statement | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $484.44 million | Yahoo Finance quarterly results | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $54.83 million | Yahoo Finance quarterly results | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP EPS | $0.86 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 12.55 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $115.2 million | Yahoo Finance cash flow | July 13, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $133.41 million | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 13, 2026 |
| Total debt | $2.20 billion | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 13, 2026 |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | 276.53% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.08 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Profit margin | 9.74% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| 50-day moving average | $13.59 | Barchart.com technical analysis | July 13, 2026 |
| 200-day moving average | $14.14 | Barchart.com technical analysis | July 13, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | July 30, 2026 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
This DRVN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 13, 2026 and can be wrong if debt reduction, same-store sales, consumer spending, interest rates, franchisee health, or market multiples change.
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