Constellium SE research snapshot
CSTM AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Constellium SE as a value-added aluminum company delivering record results while the market questions how much of the recent earnings surge is recurring. The stock traded at $27.91 on August 3, 2026 at 12:14 PM EDT, up 0.13 or 0.47% from the $27.78 July 31 close, within a day range near $26.84 to $27.98, carrying a market capitalization near $3.78 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $27.91 times 135.53 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, showed revenue of $2.7 billion up 31%, net income of $148 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $439 million including a $129 million non-cash metal price lag benefit, and a record segment Adjusted EBITDA of $310 million excluding that lag, up 88% year over year, with Free Cash Flow of $90 million in the quarter. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to Adjusted EBITDA of $980 million to $1.020 billion excluding metal price lag, Free Cash Flow in excess of $300 million, and now expects to achieve its 2028 targets two years ahead of schedule. Leverage fell to 1.8 times, within the 1.5 to 2.5 target range, and the company repurchased 623 thousand shares for $20 million in the quarter and completed a $100 million partial redemption of the 5.625% Senior Notes due June 2028 in July. The stock has more than doubled over the trailing 52 weeks and sits about 25% below its 52-week high of $36.99, above the 200-day moving average near $25.16 but below the 20-day near $28.86 and the 50-day near $31.67, with 14-day RSI near 39.7 on Barchart and 40.6 on StockAnalysis.com. The page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$27.91 at the August 3, 2026, 12:14 PM EDT reading, up 0.13 or 0.47% from the $27.78 July 31 close, after opening at $27.24 within a day range near $26.84 to $27.98
Market cap
$3.78 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Strong momentum, cyclical margin question
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact above the 200-day moving average near $25.16, but in a short-term pullback below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Constellium designs and manufactures value-added rolled and extruded aluminum products for aerospace (plate, sheet, extrusions), packaging (canstock, closure stock, foil stock), automotive (body sheet, structures, crash management, battery enclosures), commercial transportation, general industrial, and defense. Q2 2026 delivered a record segment Adjusted EBITDA of $310 million excluding metal price lag, up 88% year over year, across three segments. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from proprietary alloy development such as the Aheadd CP1 aluminum powder for additive manufacturing, specialized rolling and extrusion assets, recycling and casting know-how, long-term OEM supply agreements in aerospace and automotive, and customer qualification cycles. Aluminum is a pass-through commodity input, so the moat is in conversion, alloy, and recycling margins rather than metal price. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Ingrid Joerg and CFO Jack Guo are executing on a strategy of operational recovery, cost control, recycling investment, and capital returns. Q2 2026 delivered a record quarterly segment Adjusted EBITDA, a guidance raise to $980 million to $1.020 billion of Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow above $300 million, leverage down to 1.8 times, and continued share repurchases. The company also divested its automotive structures joint venture in Changchun, China, and filed a shelf registration for ordinary shares. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $9.58 billion, up 25.9%. Q2 2026 revenue grew 31% year over year to $2.7 billion, net income rose to $148 million from $36 million, and Adjusted EBITDA reached $439 million including a $129 million non-cash metal price lag. H1 2026 net income was $344 million versus $74 million a year earlier, Free Cash Flow was $95 million, and leverage fell to 1.8 times. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At about 7.2x trailing GAAP earnings, 0.39x sales, 3.02x book value, and 17.1x trailing free cash flow, the stock looks cheap, but the trailing earnings include the metal price lag benefit. The forecast page implies about 6.45x on FY2026 consensus EPS of $4.33, while the statistics page reports forward PE of 10.59x on a different basis, and FY2027 consensus EPS of $2.85 points to a more normal forward multiple. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CSTM traded at $27.91 on August 3, 2026 at 12:14 PM EDT, down about 25% from the 52-week high of $36.99, above the 200-day moving average near $25.16 but below the 20-day near $28.86, the 100-day near $30.34, and the 50-day near $31.67, with 14-day RSI near 39.7 on Barchart and 40.6 on StockAnalysis.com, short-term downtrend pressure, and YTD gains near 47.5%. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are scrap spread normalization, reversal of the non-cash metal price lag, aluminum price and regional premium volatility, European automotive weakness and Chinese competition, tariff and trade policy shifts, Middle East conflict effects on freight, energy and metal supply, the unproven durability of record margins, no dividend, and dilution overhang from the June 2026 shelf registration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q. Lower for forward return estimates because scrap spreads, metal price lag, aerospace build rates, and macro conditions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
CSTM AI stock forecast
The CSTM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $27.91 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $4.33. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $18 to $24, a base area near $31 to $38, and a bullish area near $42 to $48 over a roughly one to two year horizon, depending on whether record scrap spreads and metal price lag benefits persist or normalize toward the FY2027 consensus EPS of $2.85. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$42 to $48
More likely if favorable scrap spreads persist into 2027, aerospace build rates keep recovering, the North American automotive supply shortage benefit continues, metal price lag stays positive, the buyback reduces share count, and the stock re-rates on sustained record segment Adjusted EBITDA.
$31 to $38
More likely if the company meets the raised 2026 guidance of $980 million to $1.020 billion Adjusted EBITDA, second-half results moderate as management guided, FY2027 earnings normalize toward the consensus of $2.85 per share, and the stock holds a forward multiple in line with the average analyst price target near $37.77.
$18 to $24
More likely if scrap spreads compress, metal price lag turns negative, aluminum regional premiums fall, European automotive demand keeps weakening, aerospace recovery stalls, tariffs change the trade picture, or the shelf offering dilutes and the market applies a lower multiple to normalized earnings.
CSTM AI technical analysis
CSTM AI technical analysis shows a long-term uptrend that has corrected sharply as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $27.91 at 12:14 PM EDT on August 3, 2026, down about 25% from the 52-week high of $36.99, above the 200-day moving average near $25.16 but below the 20-day near $28.86, the 100-day near $30.34, and the 50-day near $31.67. Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 39.7 and StockAnalysis.com near 40.6, not oversold, with 14-day ADX near 32.7 and the negative directional index above the positive one, confirming short-term downside momentum. The stock remains up about 47.5% year to date and about 111% over the trailing 52 weeks, so the correction is within a larger uptrend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $27.91 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 12:14 PM EDT reading, up 0.13 or 0.47% from the $27.78 July 31 close within a day range near $26.84 to $27.98 after opening at $27.24; the reported $3.78 billion market cap matches $27.91 times 135.53 million shares outstanding. |
| Near resistance | $28.90 to $30.40 | The 20-day moving average near $28.86 and the 100-day near $30.34 form the first overhead zone. A reclaim with volume would improve the short-term setup. |
| Secondary resistance | $31.70 to $37.00 | The 50-day moving average near $31.67 and the 52-week high of $36.99 form the main upside zone. A move back above the 50-day would restore the short-term uptrend. |
| Near support | $26.80 to $27.50 | The August 3 day low of $26.84 and the recent consolidation area. A close below this zone would extend the pullback. |
| Secondary support | $24.80 to $25.90 | The 200-day moving average near $25.16. Holding this area keeps the long-term uptrend intact; a decisive break below it would change the structure. |
| 50-day moving average | $31.67 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day near $31.67 on August 3, 2026, now overhead and acting as the first meaningful resistance. |
| 200-day moving average | $25.16 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day near $25.16 on August 3, 2026, below price and the key level that defines the long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40, ADX near 32.7 | 14-day RSI near 39.7 on Barchart and 40.6 on StockAnalysis.com, weak but not oversold, and 14-day ADX near 32.7 with the negative directional index near 28.1 above the positive near 10.1, indicating a short-term downtrend. |
| Volume | About 1.68 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.67 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.68 million on August 3, 2026, useful for checking whether any bounce comes with real participation. |
| Volatility | ATR about $1.34, 14-day historical volatility near 39.5% | Barchart reported 14-day average true range near $1.34 and 14-day historical volatility near 39.5%, so position sizing should account for large daily swings in an aluminum cyclical. |
| Invalidation | Close below $25 | A decisive daily close below the 200-day moving average near $25.16 would break the long-term uptrend. Above it, the correction remains within a larger bullish structure. |
CSTM AI trading strategy
The CSTM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines end-market and scrap spread evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. This page does not fetch request-time market data, so confirm live levels before acting.
Wait for CSTM to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $28.86 and hold a move toward the 50-day near $31.67 with rising volume before treating the pullback as resolved. The long-term uptrend stays intact while price holds above the 200-day near $25.16.
A daily close back below the August 3 low near $26.84, or a failed attempt at the 20-day moving average, should trigger a stop and review.
If CSTM pulls back toward the $26.80 to $27.50 support zone or the 200-day near $25.16, evaluate whether the sell-off reflects aluminum and scrap macro weakness or stock-specific news such as the shelf registration. A bounce from support with above-average volume could offer a tactical entry.
Do not average down on valuation alone. Check scrap spreads, metal price lag direction, Q3 guidance, aerospace build rates, and the shelf offering before committing.
Track quarterly results (next report expected late October 2026), scrap and recycling spreads, the sign and size of the non-cash metal price lag, aluminum regional premiums, aerospace build rates, European automotive data, tariff policy, the EU scrap export tax decision expected in September, leverage, buyback execution, and any use of the shelf registration.
Lower the rating if scrap spreads compress faster than expected, metal price lag turns negative, the FY2027 earnings decline is larger than the consensus $2.85, debt rises, or the company issues shares under the shelf.
Investment research summary
Constellium converts aluminum into value-added rolled and extruded products for aerospace, packaging, automotive, transportation, industrial, and defense markets, earning its margin on conversion, alloys, recycling, and customer relationships rather than on aluminum metal price itself.
The moat rests on proprietary alloys and casting, specialized rolling and extrusion assets, recycling and scrap know-how, long-term OEM supply agreements, customer qualification cycles, and scale across France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, and the United States.
The thesis fails if scrap spreads normalize, the non-cash metal price lag reverses and turns reported earnings negative, aluminum regional premiums fall, European automotive demand keeps weakening under Chinese competition, aerospace recovery stalls, tariff or EU scrap export policy shifts, the shelf offering dilutes, or the record first-half margins prove to be a cyclical peak rather than a new base.
CEO Ingrid Joerg and CFO Jack Guo delivered a record quarter, raised 2026 guidance to Adjusted EBITDA of $980 million to $1.020 billion and Free Cash Flow above $300 million, cut leverage to 1.8 times, repurchased 623 thousand shares in the quarter, and completed a $100 million partial redemption of the 5.625% Senior Notes due June 2028.
Aluminum demand is supported by commercial aerospace production recovery with record backlogs, sustainable packaging share gains, and automotive lightweighting, but European automotive remains weak and the near-term earnings swing is dominated by recycling spreads and metal price effects that move with aluminum markets and trade policy.
At about 7.2x trailing GAAP earnings and roughly 6.45x FY2026 consensus EPS, the stock looks inexpensive, but the earnings include large non-cash metal price lag, and FY2027 consensus EPS of $2.85 points to a more normal forward multiple. The margin of safety depends on whether record margins and the raised guidance prove recurring.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSTM price | $27.91 at the August 3, 2026, 12:14 PM EDT reading, up 0.13 or 0.47% from the $27.78 July 31 close, within a day range near $26.84 to $27.98, after opening at $27.24 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.78 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $27.91 x 135.53 million shares outstanding (0.07% deviation on verification) | StockAnalysis.com quote and financial_rigor.py market cap check | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.48 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue of $2,748 million up 31%, net income of $148 million up from $36 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $439 million including a $129 million non-cash metal price lag, record segment Adjusted EBITDA of $310 million excluding the lag up 88%, Cash from Operations of $161 million and Free Cash Flow of $90 million | Constellium Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| First half 2026 results | Revenue of $5,209 million up 28%, net income of $344 million up from $74 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $798 million including a $226 million metal price lag, record segment Adjusted EBITDA of $572 million, Cash from Operations of $234 million, Free Cash Flow of $95 million, and leverage of 1.8x at June 30 | Constellium Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment Adjusted EBITDA | Aerospace and Transportation $135 million up 61%, Packaging and Automotive Rolled Products $165 million up 123%, Automotive Structures and Industry $26 million up 44%, offset by Holdings and Corporate of $16 million, for a record quarterly total | Constellium Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA of $980 million to $1.020 billion excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag, Free Cash Flow in excess of $300 million, capital expenditure of approximately $330 million including about $100 million of return-seeking capital, cash interest of about $125 million and cash taxes of about $105 million, with 2028 targets now expected two years ahead of schedule | Constellium Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $163 million, total debt of $1,923 million, net debt of $1,760 million, total assets of $6,070 million, total liabilities of $4,816 million, and total equity of $1,254 million, matching the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | Constellium Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Liquidity and leverage | Liquidity of $1,058 million at June 30, 2026, comprising $163 million cash and $895 million available under committed facilities and factoring, leverage of 1.8x within the 1.5x to 2.5x target, and a $100 million partial redemption of the 5.625% Senior Notes due June 2028 completed in July leaving $225 million outstanding | Constellium Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $9.58 billion over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, up 25.9% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue of $8,449 million, up 15.19% from $7,335 million, and net income of $273 million, up 387.5% from $56 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM profitability | Gross margin of 16.55%, operating margin of 9.49%, net margin of 5.69%, EBITDA margin of 12.76%, ROE of 53.09%, ROIC of 21.37%, and effective tax rate of 29.77% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $551 million, capital expenditures of $333 million, and free cash flow of $218 million, with free cash flow per share of $1.61 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 135.53 million shares outstanding, 135,527,728 ordinary shares at June 30, 2026 per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, with 146,819,884 issued and 11,292,156 held as treasury shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 7.19x trailing PE, 3.02x book value, 0.39x sales, 17.05x free cash flow, 4.48x EV/EBITDA, 6.75x price to operating cash flow | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | 10.59x forward PE on the statistics page, while the forecast page implies about 6.45x on FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $4.33; the two sources use different forward estimate bases and this page flags both | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast pages | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $37.77 across 5 analysts, low $34.04, median $39.50, and high $40.51, about 35% above the August 3 price | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 4 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell out of 5 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wells Fargo Buy $37 to $39 on July 31, BMO Buy reiterated $40 on July 30, Deutsche Bank Buy $40 to $39 on July 30, J.P. Morgan Hold $34 maintained on July 17, and UBS Buy $38 to $35 on July 8 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $10.70 billion with adjusted EPS of $4.33, FY2027 revenue of $10.76 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.85, and FY2026 net income estimate of $561 million | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.53 million shares short, 4.86% of shares outstanding, and 3.47 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | Q2 2026 repurchases of 623 thousand shares for $20 million, H1 2026 repurchases of 1.8 million shares for $48 million, and 15.3 million shares for $241 million repurchased since the program started in 2024 at about $15.75 per share average, with approximately $287 million remaining under a program that expires in December 2028 | Constellium Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Shelf registration | Constellium filed an automatic shelf registration statement (S-3ASR) for ordinary shares on June 24, 2026, which the market read as a potential source of future share issuance and a sentiment overhang | SEC EDGAR filing and StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| China JV divestment | On June 29, 2026, Constellium announced it sold its ownership stake in its automotive structures joint venture in Changchun, China, together with its partner, to a Chinese automotive holding company | Constellium press release and StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $13.06 to $36.99, up about 111% over the trailing 52 weeks and up about 47.5% year to date, beta 1.55 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $28.86, 50-day SMA near $31.67, 100-day SMA near $30.34, 200-day SMA near $25.16, 14-day RSI near 39.7 on Barchart and 40.6 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 32.7, and 14-day historical volatility near 39.5% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
This CSTM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, aluminum price moves, scrap spread changes, trade policy shifts, or macro conditions.
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