Carpenter Technology Corporation research snapshot
CRS AI stock analysis currently views Carpenter Technology as a high-performance specialty-alloys manufacturer that just delivered the most profitable year in its history, with FY2026 operating income up 34 percent to a record $702.0 million. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified closing price was $519.66 as of July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $25.82 billion, and the stock traded near 49.40x trailing earnings and 71.27x trailing free cash flow. The central questions are whether record aerospace and defense demand and 37.8 percent SAO segment margins can persist, and how the company performs under a leadership transition after the sudden passing of CEO Brian Malloy. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$519.66
Market cap
About $25.82 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Record margins with fresh CEO transition risk and a demanding valuation
Trend status
Price pulled back below the 50-day average after record FY2026 results and the CEO transition, with momentum turning neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Carpenter supplies high-performance specialty alloys and process solutions for aerospace, defense, medical, energy, and industrial applications. FY2026 net sales reached $3.124 billion, a record year, with operating income of $702.0 million. | High |
| Moat | Metallurgical expertise, customer qualification cycles, reliability in safety-critical parts, specialized production capacity, and scale create meaningful switching costs. Record SAO adjusted operating margins of 37.8 percent in Q4 FY2026 demonstrate pricing and mix power. | Medium-high |
| Management | FY2026 execution was strong with $605.0 million of operating cash flow, $362.3 million of adjusted free cash flow, and $179.1 million of buybacks. CEO Brian Malloy passed away unexpectedly on July 24, 2026, and Tony Thene returned as CEO on July 27, so transition and key-person risk are now central. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 was the most profitable year in company history: $3,124.2 million net sales, $702.0 million operating income, $529.8 million net income, and $10.52 diluted EPS. FY2027 operating income guidance is $850 million to $880 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $519.66, financial_rigor.py calculates 49.40x trailing EPS, 11.64x book value, and 71.27x trailing free cash flow. The price fell from $590.94 in mid-July to $519.66 by July 31, but the valuation still leaves limited room for a cycle slowdown or transition misstep. | High |
| Technical trend | The price closed at $519.66 on July 31, below the reported 50-day average of $546.70 and above the 200-day average near $405.25. RSI near 39.08 and a pullback from the $625.99 high suggest momentum has turned neutral to slightly weak. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risks include leadership transition and key-person loss after the CEO passing, aerospace and defense demand, raw-material and energy costs, capacity execution, specialized-facility disruption, customer qualification cycles, and multiple compression from a 49.40x trailing PE. | High |
| AI confidence | FY2026 filings, the earnings release, FY2027 guidance, and independent datasets support the factual base, but no model can establish the duration of a premium industrial cycle or how a leadership transition plays out. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The FY2026 record and FY2027 guidance are strong, but the current price embeds demanding continuation of earnings and cash-flow progress during a transition period. | Medium |
CRS AI stock forecast
The CRS AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges around the $519.66 cutoff price and FY2026 diluted EPS of $10.52. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The ranges come from an auditable EPS-growth and terminal-multiple calculation aligned with the FY2029 operating income target of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, so they are scenarios rather than price targets or promises.
About $1,000 to $1,100
More likely if aerospace and defense demand stays strong, the brownfield expansion converts into profitable volume, SAO margins stay near record levels, FY2027 operating income lands at the top of the $850 million to $880 million guidance, and investors keep a premium near 55x earnings.
About $720 to $790
More likely if EPS compounds near 17 percent for three years toward the FY2029 target while execution stays sound, but the valuation normalizes toward a 45x earnings multiple as growth slows.
About $260 to $310
More likely if aerospace build rates, pricing, or mix weaken, raw-material costs are not recovered, capacity projects disappoint, the leadership transition disrupts execution, or the multiple resets toward 25x earnings.
CRS AI technical analysis
CRS AI technical analysis uses the $519.66 July 31 closing price as the latest verified static reference available at the August 2 cutoff. The stock closed below the reported 50-day average after pulling back from the $625.99 high, while staying above the 200-day average. Technical levels are historical snapshots; confirm live price, volume, and earnings timing before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $519.66 | Latest verified closing price used for this static page, reported by StockAnalysis for July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $500 to $512 | Zone around the July 30 close of $503.71 and the July 31 low of $511.67. It is a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Secondary support | About $472 | The July 30 intraday low. A sustained close below it would signal a deeper correction toward the 200-day average. |
| Near resistance | $525 to $547 | The July 31 high was $524.98 and the reported 50-day average is near $546.70. A recovery needs live-volume confirmation to retest the $625.99 high. |
| Secondary resistance | About $558 to $580 | The July 29 high was $557.70 and the pre-earnings reaction zone sits near $580. This is where prior supply may appear. |
| 50-day moving average | About $546.70 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot as of the cutoff. Price closed below this average, which weakens the intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | About $405.25 | StockAnalysis reported this 200-day SMA reference near $405.25. Price remains above it, supporting the longer-term trend. |
| Momentum | RSI about 39.08 | StockAnalysis showed RSI near 39.08, below 50, indicating momentum turned neutral to slightly weak after the pullback. RSI does not predict the next earnings reaction. |
| Volume | 723,760 shares on July 31 | July 30 earnings-day volume was about 1.73 million shares. Compare live volume with the 20-day average of about 695,997 before treating a recovery as confirmed. |
| Volatility | 52-week range: $228.00 to $625.99 | The wide annual range and a beta near 1.30 argue for position sizing that can tolerate large price movement. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below about $472 | A sustained close below the July 30 intraday low would invalidate a medium-term stabilization setup and should prompt a fresh review toward the 200-day area. |
CRS AI trading strategy
The CRS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines technical stabilization with earnings, aerospace demand, leadership transition, cash conversion, capital spending, and valuation monitoring.
Watch whether CRS can hold the $500 to $512 support zone and reclaim the $525 to $547 resistance area with live volume. Pair the chart with Q1 FY2027 results, aerospace and defense demand, SAO margin guidance, and any updates on the leadership transition.
Define a loss limit before entry. A failed recovery or sustained close below the $472 level weakens the setup.
If price stabilizes near the $500 to $512 zone or retraces toward the 200-day average, look for confirmation only after checking whether FY2027 guidance, aerospace build rates, SAO margins, cash flow, and transition execution still support the business thesis.
Do not average down simply because the stock pulled back from $625.99. The valuation can compress quickly when a cyclical manufacturer misses expectations or the CEO transition creates uncertainty.
Track Q1 FY2027 results, the $850 million to $880 million FY2027 operating income guidance, the $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion FY2029 target, SAO operating margin, Aerospace and Defense share of revenue, brownfield expansion spending, adjusted free cash flow, debt, buybacks, dividends, and CEO transition execution.
Lower the rating if higher revenue does not convert into sustained margin and free-cash-flow gains, if capital spending and debt grow faster than operating cash generation, or if leadership uncertainty disrupts the transformation plan.
Investment research summary
Carpenter earns customer spend by supplying qualified specialty alloys and process solutions where material failure, quality variance, or production downtime can be costly for aerospace, defense, medical, energy, and industrial customers.
The moat comes from metallurgical expertise, qualification history, reliability, specialized production assets, customer switching costs, and the difficulty of replacing a proven material in safety-critical applications. Record SAO margins show pricing and mix power in strong demand.
The thesis fails if aerospace or defense demand slows, price and product mix deteriorate, raw-material or energy costs cannot be recovered, capacity projects miss returns, key facilities are disrupted, the CEO transition disrupts execution, or the 49.40x trailing valuation resets.
FY2026 leadership delivered record earnings, $605.0 million of operating cash flow, and $362.3 million of adjusted free cash flow while returning capital. The sudden passing of CEO Brian Malloy on July 24, 2026 and the return of Tony Thene as CEO make continuity, capital discipline, and key-person risk central follow-up items.
Aerospace and defense demand supports a long replacement and production cycle, and FY2026 Aerospace and Defense net sales excluding surcharge rose 15 percent. The company remains exposed to industrial cycles, aircraft build rates, supply chains, raw materials, energy, and customer qualification timing.
At 49.40x trailing EPS and 71.27x trailing free cash flow, the current price implies that strong growth, record margins, and cash conversion must endure through a leadership transition. A margin of safety would require either more earnings evidence or a materially lower entry valuation.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRS price, shares, and market capitalization | $519.66 closing price, 49.69 million shares outstanding, and about $25.82 billion market capitalization on July 31, 2026. financial_rigor.py price times shares calculation matched reported market cap within 0.01 percent. | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue, net income, and EPS | $3,124.2 million net sales, $702.0 million operating income, $529.8 million net income, and $10.52 diluted EPS for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026. Values were cross-validated between the company release and StockAnalysis. | Carpenter Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 revenue, operating income, and EPS | $851.0 million net sales, $206.9 million operating income, and $3.23 diluted EPS for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. SAO segment adjusted operating margin reached a record 37.8 percent. | Carpenter Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and liquidity | $393.3 million cash, about $690.7 million long-term debt, and $892.4 million total liquidity at June 30, 2026. StockAnalysis showed a current ratio of 3.81 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.31. | Carpenter Q4 FY2026 release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and capital return | FY2026 adjusted free cash flow was $362.3 million and operating cash flow was $605.0 million. The company repurchased $179.1 million of shares in FY2026, including $45.2 million in Q4, and paid $0.80 per share in dividends. | Carpenter Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 outlook and FY2029 target | FY2027 operating income guidance of $850 million to $880 million, $400 million to $430 million of adjusted free cash flow, and a medium-term FY2029 operating income target of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. | Carpenter Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Revenue mix and operating moat | FY2026 Aerospace and Defense net sales excluding surcharge rose 15 percent year over year. SAO net sales were $2,826.8 million with $782.9 million operating income, and PEP net sales were $383.0 million with $30.1 million operating income. | Carpenter Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Brian Malloy, who became CEO on July 1, 2026, passed away suddenly and unexpectedly on July 24, 2026. Tony Thene, previously CEO from 2015 through June 2026, was appointed to return as CEO effective immediately on July 27, 2026. | Carpenter Technology press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day moving average about $546.70, RSI about 39.08, and 200-day moving-average reference about $405.25. The July 31 close of $519.66 sat below the 50-day average and above the 200-day average. These are historical technical snapshots, not live signals. | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math and scenarios | financial_rigor.py calculated 49.40x trailing PE, 11.64x PB, 71.27x P/FCF, and 1.40% FCF yield. Its three-year scenarios produced approximately $1,051 bullish, $758 base, and $287 bearish outcomes using stated growth and multiple assumptions aligned with the FY2029 target. | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
This CRS AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong.
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