Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
CPRX AI stock analysis currently reads Catalyst Pharmaceuticals as a profitable commercial-stage rare-disease biopharmaceutical company that has agreed to be acquired by Angelini Pharma for $31.50 per share in cash. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified static quote was $31.47 from July 10, with a $3.85 billion market capitalization. The company generated $596.96 million in trailing revenue and $221.32 million in net income with a 37% profit margin, while holding $755.86 million in cash and virtually no debt. The acquisition, expected to close in Q3 2026, has been approved by both boards and Catalyst stockholders. This page is informational only and not investment advice.
Current price
$31.47
Market cap
$3.85 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Profitable rare-disease biopharma in acquisition by Angelini Pharma
Trend status
Price pinned near $31.50 acquisition offer with minimal deviation
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Catalyst in-licenses, develops, and commercializes medicines for rare neuromuscular and neurological diseases. Its approved portfolio includes FIRDAPSE for LEMS, AGAMREE for DMD, and FYCOMPA for epilepsy. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from FDA-approved orphan drugs with limited competition, specialist rare-disease commercial infrastructure, regulatory exclusivity, and IP protecting FIRDAPSE. The FIRDAPSE patent litigation with Hetero has been resolved through a confidential settlement. | Medium-high |
| Management | President and CEO Rich Daly has led Catalyst through significant revenue growth, product portfolio expansion (adding FYCOMPA and AGAMREE), and the Angelini Pharma merger agreement. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $596.96 million and net income of $221.32 million reflect a 37% profit margin. The company holds $755.86 million in cash with virtually no debt ($0.26% debt/equity). Levered free cash flow was $171.81 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $31.47, verified trailing metrics show about 18.2x EPS, 6.7x revenue, and 3.8x book value. The $31.50 acquisition price represents a 28% premium to the 30-day VWAP before deal announcement and a 21% premium to the unaffected close. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 10 snapshot placed CPRX at $31.47, effectively at the $31.50 acquisition offer price. The stock has traded in a narrow range near the offer since the May 7 deal announcement, with the 52-week range spanning $19.05 to $32.56. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-low in the merger-arbitrage context given the cash offer at a premium with stockholder approval secured. Key remaining risks include regulatory approvals, closing conditions, and the standalone outlook if the deal does not close. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financials, merger terms, and calculations are well documented. AI cannot predict regulatory outcomes, closing conditions, or the future standalone performance of FIRDAPSE, AGAMREE, and FYCOMPA. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Merger-arbitrage certainty is medium-high following stockholder approval, but the investment case without the acquisition depends on rare-disease product durability, pipeline development, FIRDAPSE generic risk, and commercial execution. | Medium |
CPRX AI stock forecast
The CPRX AI stock forecast is dominated by the agreed $31.50 per share cash acquisition by Angelini Pharma. A local financial-rigor calculation using $1.73 EPS, 10%, 3%, and -5% growth assumptions, and 20x, 15x, and 10x target multiples produced reference values near $46.10, $28.40, and $14.80, but the actual outcome in the near term depends on deal closing rather than fundamental scenarios.
$31.50 to $35
More likely if the Angelini Pharma acquisition closes as expected in Q3 2026 at $31.50. Any upside above the offer price would require a competing bid or deal revision, which is unlikely given the signed definitive agreement.
$30 to $31.50
More likely if the acquisition continues progressing through regulatory reviews and closes at $31.50 in Q3 2026. The stock is expected to trade near the offer price with modest merger-arbitrage spread reflecting timing and regulatory risk.
$15 to $25
More likely if the acquisition fails to close due to regulatory denial, material adverse change, or other conditions. Catalyst would remain a standalone rare-disease biopharma facing FIRDAPSE generic competition risk, pipeline uncertainty, and product concentration.
CPRX AI technical analysis
CPRX AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close of $31.47 and dated third-party statistics. This static page does not request live prices. The stock has been trading in a narrow band near the $31.50 acquisition price since the May 7 deal announcement, making conventional technical analysis less relevant in the merger context.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.47 | Latest static closing price retrieved for this page, dated July 10, 2026. |
| Acquisition price | $31.50 | Cash consideration per share under the Angelini Pharma merger agreement. |
| Near support | $30.00 | Psychological round number and potential merger-arbitrage floor. |
| Secondary support | $27.00 | Level prior to deal announcement on May 7, 2026. |
| Near resistance | $32.56 | The 52-week high reported by Yahoo Finance around the cutoff. |
| 50-day moving average | $30.50 | Price has been near this level since the deal announcement. |
| 200-day moving average | $26.00 | Price was well above this average, reflecting the acquisition premium. |
| Momentum | RSI near neutral | Tight trading range near acquisition price limits momentum signals. |
| Volume | 2.39 million shares, average | Average volume reflects normal trading for a mid-cap biopharma. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.74 | Reported beta was below the market average, though deal news can still reprice the shares. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $30.00 | A confirmed break below $30 could signal increased merger risk or a standalone valuation re-rating. |
CPRX AI trading strategy
The CPRX AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personalized advice. For merger-arbitrage, the primary consideration is deal spread, expected timeline, and regulatory risk. For standalone value, pair live data with product sales trends, FIRDAPSE generic developments, AGAMREE market adoption, and the Angelini deal status.
The primary setup is capturing the spread between current price ($31.47) and the acquisition price ($31.50). The spread of approximately $0.03 reflects the market expectation that the deal will close in Q3 2026, with minimal risk premium.
The main risks are deal failure (regulatory denial, material adverse change, termination), delayed close, or downward revision. Monitor SEC filings, regulatory reviews, and any material developments affecting the merger agreement.
If the deal does not close, trade CPRX based on FIRDAPSE revenue trends, AGAMREE adoption for DMD and potential pipeline expansion, FYCOMPA market share, operating margins, and cash position.
Define position size based on deal-failure probability. A sustained break below $30 would suggest the market is pricing in increased merger risk, requiring reassessment of the investment thesis.
Track the merger timeline, regulatory filings (Hart-Scott-Rodino, CFIUS if applicable), stockholder vote results, FIRDAPSE generic settlement terms, AGAMREE pipeline developments, FYCOMPA performance, quarterly revenue and earnings, and cash position.
Refresh analysis after SEC filings, deal milestone announcements, quarterly earnings, product-level updates, or any material change in the regulatory or competitive environment.
Investment research summary
Catalyst turns rare-disease drug in-licensing and commercial execution into revenue by bringing approved therapies to small, well-defined patient populations. Its customers are patients with LEMS, DMD, and epilepsy, along with their physicians and payers.
The moat is built from FDA orphan-drug approvals, regulatory exclusivity periods, rare-disease commercial infrastructure, and IP protection for FIRDAPSE. The confidential settlement with Hetero over FIRDAPSE generic entry provides near-term protection.
The thesis can fail if the Angelini acquisition does not close, FIRDAPSE faces faster generic erosion than expected, AGAMREE adoption disappoints, FYCOMPA faces competition or pricing pressure, pipeline candidates fail, or the company fails to replace product revenue from maturing assets.
CEO Rich Daly has driven Catalyst from a single-product company to a multi-product rare-disease platform with FIRDAPSE, AGAMREE, and FYCOMPA. Management secured the Angelini Pharma acquisition at a 28% premium to the unaffected VWAP, delivering substantial shareholder value.
Rare-disease biopharma continues to attract premium valuations due to high unmet medical need, regulatory incentives (orphan drug status, priority review), and pricing power. The Angelini Pharma deal reflects strategic interest from European pharma seeking U.S. market entry.
At $31.47, the market reflects the agreed acquisition price of $31.50 with minimal spread. Margin of safety is limited to the deal spread but the downside is protected by the cash offer. Without the acquisition, the trailing P/E of 18.2x would require analysis of organic growth and competitive dynamics.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price, market capitalization, and shares | $31.47 close on July 10, 2026, $3.85 billion market capitalization, and approximately 122.4 million shares. financial_rigor.py market-cap math passed at 0.00% variance. | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $596.96 million, cross-validated with Yahoo Finance statistics. | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | $221.32 million net income, $1.73 diluted EPS, and 37.08% profit margin. | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $755.86 million cash, total debt/equity ratio of 0.26%, and $3.10 billion enterprise value. | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | Trailing P/E 18.19, forward P/E 12.95, price/sales 6.71, price/book 3.80, EV/EBITDA 10.14, EV/revenue 5.19. | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Acquisition terms | Angelini Pharma to acquire all outstanding shares at $31.50 per share in cash, total equity value of approximately $4.1 billion. Transaction approved by both boards and Catalyst stockholders. | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals press release | July 12, 2026 |
| FIRDAPSE patent litigation resolution | Catalyst resolved patent litigation with Hetero USA regarding generic FIRDAPSE. A confidential settlement agreement has been entered, terminating all pending patent litigation. | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals press release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $19.05 to $32.56, 5-year beta 0.74, average volume 2.39 million shares. | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market-cap math passed at 0.00% variance; TTM revenue, net income, and cash cross-validation passed; valuation and three-scenario calculations were run locally. | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | July 12, 2026 |
This CPRX AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if the Angelini Pharma acquisition fails to close, regulatory conditions change, FIRDAPSE faces generic competition, product sales decline, or market conditions change.
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