Cohu, Inc. research snapshot
COHU AI stock analysis reads Cohu as a back-end semiconductor test equipment and services company whose fiscal 2026 recovery is accelerating on AI-driven high-performance computing demand. Q2 FY2026 revenue rose 38% year over year to $149 million, management raised the fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook to about 35%, and the company now estimates an annual high-performance computing pipeline of about $850 million. The balance sheet is cash rich with about $498 million in cash and investments, and sell-side analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy with an average target of $70.88. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $48.84 on August 3, 2026, and the market capitalization was about $2.31 billion. The stock is still up about 110% year to date but has pulled back sharply from its June 2026 all-time high of $74.60. The main open questions are whether high-performance computing qualifications convert into durable revenue and whether the rich valuation can be justified before GAAP profitability returns. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$48.84 close on August 3, 2026; after-hours trading near $48.61
Market cap
$2.31 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
AI-driven back-end semiconductor test equipment recovery with a strong Q2 FY2026 beat, raised fiscal 2026 guidance, and a growing high-performance computing pipeline, but still GAAP unprofitable and trading at a rich valuation
Trend status
Sharp pullback from the all-time high of $74.60, now consolidating near $48.84, still up about 110% year to date
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cohu sells back-end semiconductor test handling systems, test contactors, thermal subsystems, inspection and metrology equipment, and software analytics to chipmakers, OSAT providers, and fabless semiconductor companies. Recurring revenue reached about 53% of sales in Q2 FY2026, which strengthens the business model. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moderate moat built on customer qualification cycles, an installed base of test handlers, thermal control technology that customers describe as best in market, and growing software and recurring revenue. Switching costs exist, but Hon Precision is an established competitor in high-power handlers and equipment spending is cyclical. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Luis Muller and CFO Jeffrey Jones delivered a Q2 FY2026 beat, raised guidance, and are expanding capacity in Malaysia and the Philippines. Insider ownership is about 2.6% of shares, and multiple Form 144 filings in May through July 2026 point to some insider selling activity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue is recovering strongly. Q2 FY2026 revenue was $149 million, up 38% year over year, and TTM revenue reached $522.60 million, up 32.7%. TTM net income is still negative at about -$38.82 million, but the loss is narrowing from -$74.27 million in fiscal 2025. Cash and investments stand at about $498 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $48.84, COHU trades near 4.42x trailing sales, 3.30x forward sales, 2.99x book value, 66.21x trailing free cash flow, and a forward P/E of about 33.75 on next-twelve-month adjusted earnings. The valuation is elevated and assumes continued strong growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock rallied from $18.17 to an all-time high of $74.60 in June 2026, then pulled back sharply to consolidate near $48.84. Price sits below the 50-day moving average at $56.02 but above the 200-day moving average at $36.81, so the medium-term trend is still intact. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated risk from GAAP unprofitability, a rich valuation, cyclical semiconductor test spending, short interest near 16.79% of shares outstanding, customer concentration with one industrial customer above 10% of Q2 sales, supply chain and input cost pressure on memory and specialty components, and dilution from convertible debt. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for price, shares, market cap, revenue, balance sheet, analyst targets, and Q2 results. Lower confidence for the timing of HPC qualification conversions, the durability of the $850 million annual pipeline, and the fiscal 2027 EPS trajectory. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The recovery is documented and the balance sheet is cash rich, but the margin of safety is thin at a rich multiple while GAAP profitability has not returned, and a large share of the upside depends on customer qualifications that could slip. | Medium-low |
COHU AI stock forecast
The COHU AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $48.84 cutoff price. It is not a certain AI price prediction. The bullish case requires high-performance computing pipeline conversions to continue, GAAP profitability to return, and capacity expansion to deliver more than $200 million of HPC revenue next year. The base case assumes fiscal 2026 revenue grows about 35% as guided with execution in line. The bearish case assumes HPC qualifications slip or the semiconductor test capex cycle turns down before utilization sustains.
$75 to $85
More likely if HPC pipeline conversions continue, Cohu delivers $100 million to $110 million of HPC revenue in fiscal 2026 and turns GAAP profitable by fiscal 2027, the capacity doubling supports more than $200 million of HPC revenue next year, and the market holds a multiple near 40x forward adjusted earnings.
$55 to $68
More likely if fiscal 2026 revenue grows about 35% as guided, GAAP losses narrow steadily, HPC revenue hits the raised estimate, and the stock re-rates toward the analyst low-to-average targets of $65 to $70. Analysts currently average $70.88 across 8 ratings.
$30 to $40
More likely if HPC qualifications slip, the semiconductor test capex cycle turns before utilization stays above 80%, supply chain constraints and higher input costs compress margins, or GAAP losses persist. In that case the multiple could compress toward the 200-day moving average near $36.81 or the 52-week average near $33.54.
COHU AI technical analysis
COHU AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 close at $48.84 as the reference. Public technical data shows the stock consolidating well below its all-time high of $74.60 set in June 2026, sitting below the 50-day moving average at $56.02 and above the 200-day moving average at $36.81. RSI is 45.45, beta is 1.62, and the 20-day average volume is about 1.18 million shares. Because this page does not fetch live market data, traders should confirm every level on a current chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $48.84 close on August 3, 2026 | Latest verified close as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, sourced from StockAnalysis and Macrotrends. |
| Near support | $45.50 to $46.00 | The August 3 intraday low was $45.54 and buyers stepped in near this zone during the consolidation. |
| Secondary support | $42 to $44 | A psychological zone below the recent swing low and above the 200-day moving average. |
| 200-day moving average | $36.81 | The main long-term trend support. Holding above it keeps the 2026 uptrend intact. |
| 52-week average price | $33.54 | The trailing 52-week average price per Macrotrends, a longer-term reference point for mean-reversion thinking. |
| 52-week low | $18.17 | Set during the 2025 weakness. A break below it would signal a full retracement of the 2026 rally. |
| Near resistance | $50 to $51 | The August 3 intraday high was $50.00 and the round number creates the first overhead zone. |
| Higher resistance | $56 to $58 | The 50-day moving average near $56.02 is the first major overhead zone above the current consolidation. |
| All-time high | $74.60 | Intraday high on June 30, 2026, with a closing high of $73.91. A retest would require renewed HPC momentum or a fresh catalyst. |
| 50-day moving average | $56.02 | Price is below the 50-day moving average, so the short-term trend is still under pressure. |
| Momentum | RSI 45.45 | Neutral to slightly soft after a very large 2026 run. An RSI below 50 signals waning short-term momentum. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 1,177,000 shares | Volume has been elevated during the pullback. Stabilization on declining volume would be more constructive. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.62 | High beta. Position sizing should accommodate sharp moves around semiconductor sector news and earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $45.50, then below $36.81 | A close below $45.50 weakens the short-term base. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average near $36.81 challenges the entire 2026 uptrend. |
COHU AI trading strategy
The COHU AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines the high-performance computing pipeline and core business recovery with valuation discipline, short interest awareness, technical confirmation, and clear invalidation levels. Traders can use Pineify tools to turn these conditions into chart alerts or a testable Pine Script strategy.
Wait for COHU to reclaim and hold above $50 to $51 and then the 50-day moving average near $56.02 with rising volume, supported by continued HPC pipeline conversion and in-line or better guidance.
A failure at the $50 to $51 zone followed by a close below $45.50 should reduce confidence. The stock already had a large run, and reward-to-risk narrows while price sits below the 50-day moving average.
If COHU stabilizes between $45.50 and $46.00, compare that level with next earnings commentary, HPC order flow, gross margin trends, and supply chain cost signals before treating the dip as a trade.
Do not average down solely on the AI narrative. Define a maximum loss before entry and reassess if semiconductor test utilization falls below 80% or GAAP losses widen.
Track quarterly revenue growth, non-GAAP gross margin near 45%, non-GAAP EPS, operating cash flow, the $850 million HPC pipeline and its conversion, HPC revenue guidance of $100 million to $110 million, short interest trends, and convertible debt dilution.
Lower the rating if revenue growth decelerates, GAAP losses persist past fiscal 2027, or the forward multiple stays far above peer valuations without clear EPS visibility.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Cohu because every semiconductor device must be tested, handled, and inspected before shipment, and AI processors add heat and complexity that raise the difficulty of that step. The core engine is back-end test equipment with a growing recurring and software layer.
The moat comes from customer qualification cycles, an installed base of handlers, thermal control technology described as best in market, HBM inspection platforms, and customer-specific device kits and thermal heads. It is moderate because Hon Precision is an established competitor and equipment spending is cyclical.
The thesis fails if high-performance computing qualifications stall, the semiconductor test capex cycle turns before utilization sustains above 80%, supply chain constraints and higher input costs compress margins, GAAP losses persist, or a major customer consolidates suppliers.
CEO Luis Muller and CFO Jeffrey Jones executed a strong Q2 FY2026 and raised guidance while scaling capacity in Malaysia and the Philippines. Insider ownership is about 2.6%, and Form 144 filings through mid-2026 point to some insider selling.
AI data center buildout, HBM memory, GaN power devices, and edge connectivity are durable demand drivers for advanced packaging and test, and Cohu sits in the back-end test niche. The counterweight is that test equipment spending is cyclical and tied to capacity utilization, not just technology trends.
At about $48.84, COHU trades near 4.42x trailing sales and a forward P/E near 34x, pricing in a strong recovery. Net cash of about $167 million to $171 million provides a buffer, but the margin of safety is limited until GAAP profitability and durable HPC revenue are proven.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHU price | $48.84 close on August 3, 2026; after-hours near $48.61 | StockAnalysis COHU overview | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.31 billion (verified: $48.84 x 47.34 million shares) | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 47.34 million; float 46.08 million | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $18.17 to $74.60; all-time high close $73.91 on June 30, 2026; 52-week average $33.54 | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $522.60 million, up 32.7% year over year | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 revenue | $149 million, up 38% year over year; recurring revenue about 53% of sales | Cohu Q2 2026 earnings call, July 30, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 earnings and guidance | Non-GAAP EPS $0.26; adjusted EBITDA margin 12%; Q3 FY26 revenue guide about $170 million plus or minus $7 million; fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook raised to about 35% | Cohu Q2 2026 earnings call, July 30, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| HPC pipeline | About $850 million annual opportunity, up from $750 million; $190 million qualified across 4 customers, $250 million in active qualification across 5 customers, about $445 million early stage across 10 customers; fiscal 2026 HPC revenue estimate raised to $100 million to $110 million | Cohu Q2 2026 earnings call, July 30, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About -$38.82 million; EPS -$0.83 | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 results | Revenue $452.96 million, up 12.7%; net loss -$74.27 million | StockAnalysis financial forecast (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| 5-year revenue and net income trend | FY2021 $887.2M revenue, $167.3M profit; FY2022 $812.8M, $96.9M; FY2023 $636.3M, $28.2M; FY2024 $401.8M, -$69.8M; FY2025 $452.96M, -$74.3M | StockAnalysis financial forecast (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | $498.17 million | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt and net cash | Total debt about $327 million to $331 million; net cash about $167 million to $171 million ($3.53 to $3.65 per share); includes a $288 million convertible note from Q4 2025 | StockAnalysis statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value per share | Book value $774.59 million; about $16.36 to $16.49 per share | StockAnalysis COHU statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing P/E n/a; forward P/E 33.75; price/sales 4.42; forward price/sales 3.30; price/book 2.99; price/free cash flow 66.21; EV/EBITDA 240.67 | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy across 8 analysts; average target $70.88, low $65, median $70, high $80 | StockAnalysis COHU forecast (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Craig-Hallum raised target to $74, B. Riley to $69, Baird to $70, Stifel at $70, Needham at $65, all after Q2 results on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis COHU forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.95 million shares; 16.79% of shares outstanding; 17.24% of float; 5.47 days to cover | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $56.02; 200-day moving average $36.81; RSI 45.45; beta 1.62; 20-day average volume about 1,177,000 shares | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO and leadership | Luis Muller, President and Chief Executive Officer and Director; Jeffrey Jones, Chief Financial Officer | StockAnalysis COHU company profile | August 4, 2026 |
| Ownership | Insider ownership 2.63%; institutional ownership 106.99% | StockAnalysis COHU statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This COHU AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, a solicitation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if HPC qualifications, semiconductor capex cycles, customer demand, supply chain conditions, input costs, earnings revisions, or market sentiment change. COHU carries elevated short interest and valuation risk.
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