FormFactor, Inc. research snapshot
FORM AI stock analysis currently reads FormFactor, Inc. as a specialized semiconductor test and measurement supplier whose probe cards and systems benefit from HBM, networking, advanced packaging, and AI infrastructure demand. The stock closed at $117.52 on July 10, 2026, with a market cap near $9.16 billion. FY2025 revenue reached a record $785.0 million, Q1 2026 revenue rose 32.0% year over year to $226.1 million, and management guided to Q2 revenue of about $240 million plus or minus $5 million with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.61 plus or minus $0.04. The bullish case is that HBM and next-generation packaging raise test intensity while Texas capacity and operating improvements lift margins. The caution is that the FORM AI stock forecast depends on a cyclical semiconductor spending chain, a 22.9% FY2025 revenue contribution from SK hynix, and a valuation near 135x trailing EPS.
Current price
$117.52 at the July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$9.16 billion using about 77.95 million shares, verified within 0.01% of reported market-cap math
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Semiconductor test and measurement supplier with real HBM and AI infrastructure exposure, strong net cash, and improving demand, but expensive valuation and customer concentration
Trend status
Long-term trend is constructive above the 200-day moving average, while short-term momentum is corrective below the 50-day average with RSI near 44.40
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FormFactor sells probe cards, analytical probes, probe stations, thermal systems, cryogenic systems, and related services across the semiconductor product lifecycle. Customers pay when better test data improves yield, device performance, and manufacturing decisions. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from custom engineering, product qualification, application support, test-data know-how, global service, and experience with demanding HBM and advanced packaging workflows. It is meaningful but not unassailable because customers can change architectures and competitors can pressure price and share. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Mike Slessor has led FormFactor since 2014. The team is using a Keystone Photonics acquisition, a Texas manufacturing site, facility consolidation, and operating initiatives to pursue growth and margin improvement. The capital-allocation test is whether the large 2026 investment program earns durable returns without weakening flexibility. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached a record $785.0 million, up 2.8%, while GAAP net income fell to $54.4 million from $69.6 million after a prior-year business-sale gain. Q1 2026 revenue grew 32.0% year over year, GAAP gross margin was 38.4%, non-GAAP gross margin was 49.0%, and free cash flow was $30.7 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $117.52, the audited inputs imply about 135.08x trailing EPS, 8.65x book value, 250.04x trailing free cash flow, and 10.91x trailing sales. StockAnalysis reports a forward P/E near 46.59x. The price can work only if the current earnings reset converts into sustained growth. | High for current ratios |
| Technical trend | FORM remains above its 200-day moving average near $88.81, but it is below the 50-day average near $132.57 after a sharp pullback from the $160.27 52-week high. RSI near 44.40 is neutral to weak, so the $104 to $112 support area and $123 to $133 resistance band matter. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because results depend on semiconductor capital spending, HBM and networking demand, customer concentration, product mix, competition, tariffs, trade restrictions, sole-source suppliers, execution at the Texas site, and a valuation that leaves little room for an earnings miss. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for filed results, market-cap math, balance-sheet liquidity, and current technical context. Forecast confidence is medium because the three-year model uses an annualized non-GAAP guidance midpoint rather than a reported full-year GAAP forecast. | High data, medium forecast |
| Investment certainty | FORM looks like a high-upside semiconductor cycle and execution case rather than a high-certainty compounder. Investment certainty improves if growth broadens beyond one HBM-linked customer and gross-margin improvement arrives without excessive capital intensity. | Low to medium |
FORM AI stock forecast
The FORM AI stock forecast uses a scenario range rather than a fixed price prediction. A financial_rigor.py three-year model used $2.44 as an annualized non-GAAP EPS reference from the Q2 guidance midpoint of $0.61, then applied 15%, 8%, and -10% annual EPS paths with 45x, 35x, and 20x exit P/E assumptions. The audited outputs were about $167 in the bullish case, $108 in the base case, and $36 in the bearish case. These are mechanical sensitivity results, not company guidance or guaranteed targets.
$155 to $180
More likely if Q2 revenue and non-GAAP EPS land near the high end of guidance, HBM4 and AI infrastructure demand broaden across customers, networking and advanced packaging grow, Texas capacity ramps as planned, and gross-margin improvement supports a premium multiple near the modeled 45x exit P/E.
$95 to $115
More likely if the Q2 guide is broadly achieved, annualized earnings grow at a high-single-digit rate, customer demand remains strong but cyclical, free cash flow stays positive after elevated capex, and investors value the business near a mid-30s earnings multiple.
$30 to $45
More likely if HBM or broader semiconductor capex normalizes sharply, SK hynix or another major customer reduces orders, gross margins fall under mix and pricing pressure, the Texas investment takes longer to pay back, or the market rerates the company toward a 20x multiple on lower normalized earnings.
FORM AI technical analysis
FORM AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and a StockAnalysis technical snapshot checked around the July 12 cutoff. FORM closed at $117.52 after a volatile July sequence that included a $104.02 intraday low on July 7 and a $160.27 52-week high on June 30. The price is below the 50-day moving average near $132.57 but above the 200-day average near $88.81. RSI near 44.40 is not oversold, while July 10 volume of about 1.00 million shares was below the 20-day average near 2.11 million.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $117.52 | StockAnalysis historical data shows the July 10, 2026 close, with a daily range of $113.15 to $118.02. |
| Immediate support | $104 to $112 | The July 7 low near $104.02 and July 8 low near $105.35 define the first recent demand zone, while the July 8 close near $111.59 marks the upper part of the repair area. |
| Secondary support | $88.81 to $95 | The 200-day moving average near $88.81 is the more important long-term trend reference if the July support zone fails. |
| Near resistance | $123 to $133 | The July 9 high near $123.55 is the first reclaim test, followed by the 50-day moving average near $132.57. |
| Higher resistance | $147 to $160 | The July 1 close near $147.13 and the June 30 52-week high near $160.27 form the next major supply zone. |
| 50-day moving average | About $132.57 | The current price is below this intermediate trend reference, so a reclaim with stronger volume would improve short-term structure. |
| 200-day moving average | About $88.81 | FORM remains above the long-term average, which keeps the larger trend constructive despite the recent correction. |
| Momentum | RSI about 44.40 | Momentum is neutral to weak rather than deeply oversold. A move back above 50 would be a more useful confirmation than a single bounce. |
| Volume | About 1.00 million shares on July 10 versus 2.11 million 20-day average | The pullback and rebound sequence needs follow-through volume to distinguish stabilization from another failed bounce. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.22; 52-week range $26.08 to $160.27 | The 52-week gain near 229% and wide trading range show that valuation and semiconductor headlines can move FORM sharply. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $104, with $88.81 as the deeper trend test | A durable break below the recent July low zone weakens the stabilization case. A break below the 200-day average would damage the longer-term trend thesis. |
FORM AI trading strategy
The FORM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to HBM and networking demand, Q2 execution, gross-margin recovery, Texas capacity, customer concentration, capital spending, and semiconductor cycle data.
Watch for FORM to hold the $104 to $112 support area, reclaim the $123 to $133 resistance and 50-day average zone, and show volume confirmation alongside Q2 results that meet or improve on the $240 million revenue and $0.61 non-GAAP EPS midpoint outlook.
Reduce setup confidence after a sustained close below $104, a failed reclaim of the 50-day average, a weaker Q2 outlook, or evidence that HBM and networking demand is narrowing to one customer.
If FORM revisits the $104 to $112 area while Q2 guidance, cash liquidity, and customer orders remain intact, compare the price with the $108 base model and $36 bearish model instead of assuming that a sharp drawdown is automatically cheap.
Do not average down through a genuine demand reset, gross-margin miss, inventory build, Texas capex delay, or customer concentration problem. The valuation can stay elevated even after a large percentage decline.
Track quarterly revenue by DRAM, Foundry & Logic, Flash, and Systems; HBM and networking demand; gross margin; operating expenses; free cash flow; 2026 capital expenditures of $140 million to $170 million; cash and debt; inventory; customer concentration; and the Texas manufacturing ramp.
Position sizing should reflect a high-beta semiconductor equipment supplier with a large current valuation, not a defensive cash compounder. Reassess when earnings growth, margin expansion, or customer breadth no longer supports the multiple.
Investment research summary
Customers pay FormFactor for measurement and test interfaces that help them characterize devices, qualify designs, improve yields, reduce scrap, and move semiconductors into high-volume production. Probe cards are the economic center, while Systems adds probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic capabilities.
The moat is based on custom engineering, repeat qualification, application support, product breadth, global service, and accumulated knowledge of difficult test environments. HBM and advanced packaging raise the value of high-frequency and high-integrity testing, but the moat can narrow if customers change test methods or competitors improve performance, delivery, or price.
The thesis fails if HBM and AI infrastructure spending cools, a major customer cuts orders, product mix lowers margins, competitors take share, sole-source suppliers disrupt production, tariffs rise, trade restrictions reduce China demand, or Texas capacity produces less return than planned. A 135x trailing multiple magnifies each miss.
Mike Slessor has led FormFactor for more than a decade after the MicroProbe acquisition. Recent decisions include acquiring Keystone Photonics, buying and building a Texas manufacturing site, consolidating facilities, and restructuring for a target financial model. The key management test is disciplined execution through a strong cycle without overbuilding capacity.
AI servers, HBM, advanced packaging, co-packaged optics, silicon photonics, networking, and higher device complexity support a long-term rise in semiconductor test intensity. The industry remains cyclical, however, and test demand ultimately follows customer wafer starts, product transitions, capital budgets, and technology choices.
FORM is priced for a meaningful earnings step-up. At $117.52, the audited trailing ratios are about 135.08x EPS, 8.65x book, 250.04x free cash flow, and 10.91x sales. The margin of safety depends on converting Q2 non-GAAP earnings momentum into durable GAAP earnings and cash flow while keeping customer and capex risks contained.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FORM quote reference | $117.52 close on July 10, 2026; July 10 volume about 1.00 million shares | StockAnalysis price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $9.16 billion calculated from $117.52 x 77.95 million shares; market-cap math variance 0.01%. SEC 10-K reported 77.92 million shares as of February 13, 2026. | StockAnalysis statistics and FormFactor FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $784.99 million revenue and $54.36 million GAAP net income. FormFactor, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis matched within 0.01% after rounding. | FormFactor FY2025 Form 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $226.1 million revenue, up 32.0% year over year; $20.4 million GAAP net income; 38.4% GAAP gross margin; $30.7 million free cash flow. | FormFactor Q1 2026 SEC earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 outlook | $240 million plus or minus $5 million revenue, 49.5% plus or minus 1.5% non-GAAP gross margin, and $0.61 plus or minus $0.04 non-GAAP diluted EPS. | FormFactor Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | Q1 2026 cash plus marketable securities totaled $303.28 million and term debt totaled $11.93 million. StockAnalysis reports $303.28 million cash and $31.89 million total debt under its classification, which includes additional lease obligations. | FormFactor Q1 2026 SEC release and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue mix | Probe Cards $637.90 million and Systems $147.10 million. Foundry & Logic was $369.90 million, DRAM was $247.40 million, Flash was $20.60 million, and Systems was $147.10 million. | FormFactor FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Customer concentration | SK hynix represented 22.9% of FY2025 revenue. In the quarterly disclosures filed for FY2025, SK hynix remained above 19% in each reported quarter. | FormFactor FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $132.57, 200-day moving average $88.81, RSI 44.40, beta 1.22, 20-day average volume 2.11 million, and 52-week range $26.08 to $160.27. | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Long-term investment program | Investor-day materials describe a path toward $1.6 billion revenue and a 55% gross-margin target by 2030, with $140 million to $170 million of 2026 capital expenditures for the Texas site and other growth investments. | FormFactor 2026 Investor Day presentation | July 12, 2026 |
| CEO background | Mike Slessor has served as FormFactor CEO since 2014 and previously led MicroProbe before its acquisition by FormFactor. | FormFactor leadership page | July 12, 2026 |
This FORM AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and explicit assumptions, and they may be wrong. Verify filings, market data, technical levels, liquidity, taxes, and your own risk constraints before making any financial decision.
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