Cimpress plc research snapshot
CMPR AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Cimpress as a mass customization printing leader that delivered a strong fiscal 2026 and raised its multi-year profit target while still carrying a highly leveraged balance sheet. The stock closed at $99.24 on August 3, 2026, up 0.54 or 0.55% from the $98.70 close on July 31, after opening at $98.67 and trading in a session range of $96.15 to $102.74, carrying a market capitalization near $2.42 billion and an enterprise value near $3.91 billion. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $3.74 billion, up 9.8% on a reported basis and 4% on an organic constant currency basis, net income rose to $95.87 million from $14.95 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 6% to $458.5 million. Management raised the fiscal 2028 adjusted EBITDA target to at least $615 million, guided fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA to at least $520 million and adjusted free cash flow to about $200 million, and expects net leverage to fall to about 2.5x exiting fiscal 2027 and meaningfully below 2.0x by the end of fiscal 2028. The company also launched a strategic partnership with Canva, closed the Saxoprint acquisition, and closed a new $1.1 billion Term Loan B maturing in 2033. The main cautions in any CMPR AI stock forecast are the Q4 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.97 below the $1.22 consensus, total debt near $1.74 billion, negative stockholders equity near $398 million, tariff uncertainty including a 50% Section 338 Canadian tariff effective August 19, 2026, an Altman Z-score of 2.55, and a stock that is already up about 86.6% over the trailing 52 weeks. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$99.24 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.54 or 0.55% from the $98.70 July 31 close, after opening at $98.67 and trading in a session range of $96.15 to $102.74
Market cap
$2.42 billion calculated from $99.24 x 24.35 million shares, matching the StockAnalysis.com market cap of $2.42 billion within 0.14%
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Mass customization printing leader with improving profitability, a raised multi-year EBITDA target, and the new Canva partnership, but high debt leverage, negative stockholders equity, and cyclical small business exposure keep risk elevated
Trend status
Price is above both the 50-day moving average near $96.24 and the 200-day moving average near $80.05 and near the upper end of the 52-week range of $48.51 to $106.58, with RSI near 52.84 after pulling back from the July 16 peak and an intraday swing to $82.00 around the Q4 earnings release
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cimpress is the global leader in mass customization of printed products and related marketing materials, serving small businesses and higher-value customers through VistaPrint, PrintBrothers, The Print Group, National Pen, and 99designs, with fiscal 2026 revenue of $3.74 billion, operating income of $251.03 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $458.5 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Automated manufacturing scale, a global logistics and fulfillment network, Vistaprint brand recognition, integrated design tools such as VistaCreate and 99designs, and the new Canva integration create practical barriers, but the printing market remains fragmented and price competitive. | Medium |
| Management | Founder, Chairman, and CEO Robert Keane has led the company for decades; the team closed a $1.1 billion Term Loan B maturing in 2033, raised fiscal 2028 adjusted EBITDA guidance to at least $615 million, and lowered net leverage to 2.9x from 3.1x, while the Q4 adjusted EPS miss shows execution noise from one-time items. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 9.8% to $3.74 billion, net income improved to $95.87 million from $14.95 million, adjusted EBITDA grew 6% to $458.5 million, and adjusted free cash flow was $122.4 million, while total debt of about $1.74 billion and negative stockholders equity keep the balance sheet stretched. | High |
| Valuation | At 26.18x trailing P/E, 18.69x forward P/E, 0.65x sales, and 13.17x price to free cash flow with a PEG ratio of 0.85, the market prices in continued earnings recovery; the forward multiple looks reasonable only if margin and free cash flow improvement continues. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day moving average near $96.24 and the 200-day moving average near $80.05 and near the upper end of the 52-week range, with RSI near 52.84 after a pullback from the July 16 peak near $106.58 and a wide intraday swing to $82.00 around the July 30 earnings release. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated from high debt leverage with net leverage near 2.9x, negative stockholders equity of about $398 million, cyclical small business spending, tariff uncertainty including a 50% Section 338 Canadian tariff effective August 19, 2026, an Altman Z-score of 2.55, and a Q4 fiscal 2026 EPS miss. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, segment data, price history, and guidance figures that cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com quote, statistics, financials, and history pages and the Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings call; medium for future earnings and valuation because margin, tariff, and organic growth outcomes vary. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. Positive free cash flow, debt reduction, and a raised EBITDA target are positives, but high leverage and cyclical end markets mean the margin of safety is thin. | Low-medium |
CMPR AI stock forecast
The CMPR AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges instead of a single target price. The model starts from forward EPS of about $5.31 implied by the forward P/E of 18.69 and applies 15%, 8%, and 0% annual EPS growth assumptions with 20x, 15x, and 10x exit P/E multiples. The resulting center estimates are about $162, $100, and $53, computed with exact decimal arithmetic. These are assumption outputs, not reliable predictions. The bullish case requires Canva to scale, organic growth to hold mid-single digits, margins to expand, and net leverage to fall below 2.0x. The base case assumes moderate growth with leverage still elevated. The bearish case assumes economic pressure on small businesses, tariff headwinds, margin compression, and weaker free cash flow.
$130 to $165 over three years
More likely if the Canva partnership scales revenue, organic constant currency growth holds near mid-single digits, operating margins expand through manufacturing efficiency and elevated products, net leverage falls below 2.0x, and the company demonstrates resilience during any small business spending slowdown.
$85 to $120 over three years
More likely if the company sustains moderate growth near the fiscal 2027 guidance of at least 3% organic constant currency, margins improve gradually, adjusted free cash flow reaches about $200 million, and leverage remains elevated while the valuation multiple stays near current levels.
$45 to $70 over three years
More likely if small business marketing spending declines, tariffs including the Section 338 Canadian duties reduce margins, pricing competition intensifies, adjusted free cash flow falls short, or debt service consumes cash flow before leverage can fall.
CMPR AI technical analysis
CMPR AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 close of $99.24 and StockAnalysis.com technical and price history data checked through August 4, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $96.24 and the 200-day moving average near $80.05 but below the July peak near $106.58, with 14-day RSI near 52.84. Around the July 30 Q4 earnings release the stock swung as low as $82.00 intraday before closing near $94.70, showing event-driven volatility. Recent levels are approximate planning zones from the reported price history, not live trading signals. Confirm them on a current chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $99.24 | Latest verified close on August 3, 2026, up 0.54 or 0.55% from the July 31 close. |
| Near support | $96 to $98 | The 50-day moving average near $96.24, the August 3 low near $96.15, and the July 30 and July 31 recovery closes near $94.70 and $98.70. |
| Secondary support | $88 to $93 | The June breakout zone near $87 to $93 and the July 6 and July 8 lows near $93.51 to $94.05. |
| Near resistance | $102 to $105 | The August 3 high near $102.74 and July highs near $103.96 to $106.05. |
| 52-week high | $106.58 | The intraday high set on July 16, 2026. A breakout above this level with volume would signal trend continuation. |
| 50-day moving average | $96.24 | StockAnalysis.com reports the 50-day moving average near $96.24, below the current price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $80.05 | StockAnalysis.com reports the 200-day moving average near $80.05, well below the current price and confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52.84 | The 14-day RSI near 52.84 is neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room to move in either direction. |
| Volume | 220,194 on August 3 versus 174,921 average | Volume was above the 20-day average on the latest close, supporting the bounce from the July earnings-day pullback. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta about 1.82 | The high beta implies larger moves relative to the broad market, and the July 30 intraday swing to $82.00 shows earnings-day gap risk. Risk controls should allow for gap risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $93 | A sustained break below the $93 to $96 support cluster would challenge the medium-term technical thesis. A close below the 50-day moving average near $96.24 weakens the near-term setup first. |
CMPR AI trading strategy
The CMPR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action with quarterly revenue growth, segment mix, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, net debt reduction, tariff developments, and small business spending indicators.
Wait for CMPR to hold above the $96 to $98 zone and eventually break through the $106.58 52-week high with above-average volume while quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow continue to improve.
A failed breakout, a close below $93, weakening margin or free cash flow trends, or news of small business spending stress or tariff damage should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If the $96 to $98 zone holds without new fundamental negatives, compare stabilization with the 200-day average near $80.05, RSI near 52.84, upcoming quarterly results, and the debt-adjusted valuation.
Do not treat a price pullback near moving averages as automatically attractive. Assess leverage, tariff exposure, and adjusted free cash flow trends before considering a position.
Track quarterly VistaPrint and segment revenue, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow, net debt, net leverage, the Canva ramp, Saxoprint integration, the September 30 Investor Day, and management commentary on tariffs, small business demand, and competitive trends.
Lower confidence if organic constant currency growth falls below the fiscal 2027 guidance, margins compress, adjusted free cash flow falls well short of the about $200 million target, or net leverage stops falling.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Cimpress for high-quality, low-cost custom printed products, marketing materials, signage, packaging, apparel, and design services delivered quickly even in small quantities. The economic test is whether its brand recognition, automated manufacturing, global logistics, and the new Canva integration can generate attractive returns while managing high fixed costs, debt service, and cyclical small business demand.
The moat is moderate rather than deep. Vistaprint is a recognized brand for small business printing, and automated production facilities, a global fulfillment network, integrated design tools, and the Canva partnership create practical barriers. Competitors include local print shops, Shutterfly, and online printing platforms with lower cost structures.
The thesis fails if small business spending declines in a recession, online and local competitors undercut pricing, tariffs such as the Section 338 Canadian duties raise costs without pricing power, debt service consumes free cash flow, the Vistaprint brand loses relevance to newer marketing channels, the Canva partnership grows slower than expected, or the company cannot refinance its debt on favorable terms. The Altman Z-score of 2.55 and negative stockholders equity underline the fragility if operating cash flow stalls.
Founder, Chairman, and CEO Robert S. Keane has led the company since 1995. In Q4 fiscal 2026 the company closed a $1.1 billion Term Loan B maturing in 2033, reduced net leverage to 2.9x from 3.1x, closed the Saxoprint acquisition, and raised the fiscal 2028 adjusted EBITDA target to at least $615 million. The capital allocation question is whether adjusted free cash flow of $122.4 million can grow to about $200 million in fiscal 2027 and sustainably reduce leverage.
Small businesses continue to need physical marketing materials, business cards, signage, packaging, apparel, and promotional products, but the mix is gradually shifting toward digital marketing and AI-enabled design. Cimpress has responded with VistaCreate, 99designs, and the new Canva partnership where Canva AI plugs directly into Cimpress systems. The long-term trend in small business formation is favorable, but per-customer print spending faces secular pressure from digital alternatives.
At $99.24, CMPR trades at 26.18x trailing P/E, 18.69x forward P/E, 0.65x sales, and 13.17x price to free cash flow with an enterprise value of $3.91 billion and a PEG ratio of 0.85. The forward multiple implies expectations of a significant earnings recovery. Positive free cash flow, a raised EBITDA target, and the recognizable brand create some support, but net leverage near 2.9x and negative equity mean the margin of safety depends on sustained margin improvement and debt reduction.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMPR price | $99.24 close on August 3, 2026, up 0.54 or 0.55% from the $98.70 July 31 close, after opening at $98.67 and trading in a session range of $96.15 to $102.74 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $2.42 billion from $99.24 x 24.35 million shares; the calculation matched the StockAnalysis.com market cap within 0.14%, with shares down 1.21% year over year, a float of 13.88 million, insiders owning 15.89%, and institutions owning 64.67% | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | Enterprise value of $3.91 billion, computed as $2.42 billion market cap plus $1.49 billion net debt, matching StockAnalysis.com | StockAnalysis.com statistics, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 revenue and net income | $3.74 billion revenue, up 9.8%, and $95.87 million net income to common shareholders, up from $14.95 million, for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com income statement and Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings materials | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 EPS | Diluted EPS of $3.79 for fiscal 2026, up from $0.58 in fiscal 2025, with revenue growth of 553.45% in EPS terms | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Q4 fiscal 2026 results | Q4 revenue of $944.96 million, up 8.68%, diluted EPS of $0.97 versus consensus of $1.22, and adjusted EBITDA of $120.4 million, with Q4 profitability hit by $7.1 million of startup costs, a $4.7 million Canadian duty drawback write-off, and $1.8 million of inventory write-downs, partially offset by $6.9 million of IEEPA tariff refunds | StockAnalysis.com income statement and Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Adjusted EBITDA of $458.5 million for fiscal 2026, up 6% from about $432.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $120.4 million for Q4 fiscal 2026 | Cimpress Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Adjusted free cash flow | Adjusted free cash flow of $122.4 million for fiscal 2026 and $70.5 million for Q4, reflecting higher manufacturing capital expenditures | Cimpress Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow and capex | Operating cash flow of $283.71 million, capital expenditures of $100.24 million, and free cash flow of $183.46 million for fiscal 2026 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net leverage | $248.85 million cash and equivalents, total debt of about $1.74 billion, net debt of about $1.49 billion, and net leverage of 2.9x trailing twelve month EBITDA under the credit agreement, down from 3.1x at the end of fiscal 2025 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Term Loan B refinancing | Closed a new $1.1 billion senior secured Term Loan B due 2033 during Q4 fiscal 2026, replacing the prior Term Loan B due 2028, with a $250 million revolving credit facility also available | Cimpress Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call and Business Wire | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples | Trailing P/E 26.18x, forward P/E 18.69x, P/S 0.65x, P/FCF 13.17x, PEG 0.85x, EV/EBITDA 9.70x, EV/FCF 21.29x, and EV/Sales 1.05x | StockAnalysis.com statistics, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Segments | Fiscal 2026 segment revenue: Vista $1,934 million, PrintBrothers $823.16 million, The Print Group $445.63 million, National Pen $446.8 million, All Other $258.13 million, and inter-segment eliminations of negative $171.56 million | StockAnalysis.com revenue by segment | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2027 guidance | Reported revenue growth of at least 7% on at least 3% organic constant currency, net income of at least $125 million, adjusted EBITDA of at least $520 million, operating cash flow of about $370 million, and adjusted free cash flow of about $200 million, with M&A contributing $18 million to $21 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA and $165 million to $175 million of revenue | Cimpress Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2028 targets | Raised adjusted EBITDA target to at least $615 million, net income of at least $192 million, adjusted free cash flow conversion of about 45% implying roughly $275 million, organic constant currency revenue growth of 4% to 6%, net leverage of about 2.5x exiting fiscal 2027, and net leverage meaningfully below 2.0x by the end of fiscal 2028 | Cimpress Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Canva partnership | Strategic partnership with Canva launched with a first set of Vistaprint branded products in Canada and the United States, expanding to more than 25 additional countries by the end of September 2026, with Canva AI plugging directly into Cimpress systems so customers can go from a design prompt to a print-ready product without leaving Canva | Cimpress Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Saxoprint acquisition | Closed the acquisition of Saxoprint and viaprinto from CEWE during Q4 fiscal 2026 as a production hub for the Cross-Cimpress Fulfillment strategy, strengthening PrintBrothers in the near term | Cimpress Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call and Business Wire | August 4, 2026 |
| Tariff exposure | Section 301 tariffs of 10% to 12.5% are already built into fiscal 2027 guidance, while a 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods under Section 338 effective August 19, 2026 is not included in guidance, with management working to mitigate the cost impact | Cimpress Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $110.50, ranging from $108 to $113, across 2 analysts; Truist at $108 maintained July 31, 2026 and Barrington at $113 maintained June 5, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst revenue and net income forecast | Fiscal 2027 revenue forecast of $4.00 billion, up 7.08%, and fiscal 2028 revenue forecast of $4.25 billion, up 6.15%, with fiscal 2027 net income forecast near $137.92 million and free cash flow near $279.72 million on limited coverage | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range, beta, and performance | 52-week range of $48.51 to $106.58, up 86.58% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a 5-year monthly beta of 1.82 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $96.24, 200-day moving average near $80.05, 14-day RSI near 52.84, and 20-day average volume near 174,921 shares on StockAnalysis.com | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | Short interest of 2.14 million shares, 8.80% of shares outstanding, 15.44% of float, and 8.06 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com short selling statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Profitability and balance sheet metrics | Gross margin of 46.29%, operating margin of 6.72%, profit margin of 2.57%, EBITDA margin of 10.78%, return on assets of 7.71%, return on invested capital of 11.88%, current ratio of 0.73, interest coverage of 2.37, and negative stockholders equity near $398 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Scores | Altman Z-Score of 2.55 and Piotroski F-Score of 6, with the Z-score below 3 indicating an increased risk of financial distress | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Financial history | Revenue of $2.89 billion in fiscal 2022, $3.08 billion in fiscal 2023, $3.29 billion in fiscal 2024, $3.40 billion in fiscal 2025, and $3.74 billion in fiscal 2026, with free cash flow of $165.5 million, $76.52 million, $295.8 million, $209.05 million, and $183.46 million respectively | StockAnalysis.com financials and cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
This CMPR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong if Cimpress execution, small business spending, tariff policy, competitive dynamics, debt servicing costs, debt refinancing, margins, the Canva ramp, or market valuation changes.
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